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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY – 4H Chart Analysis🟦 USD/JPY – 4H Chart Analysis (April 21, 2025) 📊 Technical Analysis Current Price: ~140.72 Structure: Descending channel Pattern: Bullish flag within a broader downtrend Key Zones: Support Zone: 139.70 – 140.00 (blue zone) Demand Zone: 137.10 – 137.55 (strong support below) Resistance Levels: 145.17 (intermediate resistance) 147.43 – 147.47 (major supply) 149.70 – 150.00 (psychological + previous swing high) Setup: Price is at the lower boundary of the descending channel, testing support. Reversal zone aligns with a previous demand area + lower trendline support. If bulls defend this zone, price may: Rebound toward 145.17 Break short-term trendline resistance Extend toward 147.43 Invalidation: A clean break below 139.70 could send price toward 137.10 Risk-to-Reward: Favorable for long trades from current level with stops below the blue zone and TP near 147.4–150 🌐 Fundamental Outlook 🔸 USD Side (Bearish to Neutral): Fed likely to pause or cut rates soon due to cooling inflation. Weakness in U.S. CPI and softer economic indicators weighing on dollar strength. Rising U.S. debt and global de-dollarization sentiment impacting USD outlook. 🔸 JPY Side (Weakening): BOJ maintaining ultra-loose policy with no rate hike in sight. Weak yen has sparked verbal intervention risk, but actual BOJ action remains unlikely near-term. JPY typically strengthens during risk-off, but with markets stabilizing, appetite for carry trades could weaken JPY further. 🔸 Geopolitics: Escalation in Middle East could lead to safe haven flows into JPY, but so far minimal impact. If tensions rise, JPY may temporarily strengthen. 🧠 Conclusion: Price at key support within a falling channel. A potential bullish reversal is forming with upside targets at 145.17 and 147.47, especially if fundamentals align with a weakening USD and no BOJ surprises.
Long
by FXNEWSCLUB
Japanese Yen seems poised to appreciate further against weaker UFrom a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already flashing slightly oversold conditions and warrants some caution for bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for an extension of the USD/JPY pair's well-established downtrend witnessed over the past three months or so. In the meantime, attempted recovery might now confront some resistance near the 141.60-141.65 region. This is followed by the 142.00 round figure and the 142.40-142.45 hurdle, above which a fresh bout of a short-covering move could lift the USD/JPY pair to the 143.00 mark en route to the 143.25-143.30 zone. Any further move up, however, might still be seen as a selling opportunity. On the flip side, a sustained break and acceptance below the 141.00 mark could be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and makes the USD/JPY pair vulnerable. The subsequent downfall below the 140.45-140.40 intermediate support might expose the 140.00 psychological mark. The downward trajectory could extend to the 2024 yearly swing low, around the 139.60-139.55 region.
Long
by xauusd_rr
USD/JPY H4 | Downtrend to extend further?USD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 141.82 which is a pullback resistance. Stop loss is at 143.20 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance. Take profit is at 139.85 which is a swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
USDJPY Case StudyHey guys! Trendline traders would be profited from this UJ trade last week or today. The market structure before the supply zone that I draw was a messy, don't you agree? I would not consider this supply zone to enter the trade. But, if you draw a trendline and the supply zone automatically aligns with the break of the trendline, it became the place where trendline traders put their sell limit to join the bearish moves. It was a beauty. As of now, my target is only 2RR for my small funded account, so yeah it is easy to achieve. The supply zone met my requirement as below: 1. Supply was left with imbalance followed by break of structure to the downside. 2. After supply zone, there was SBR level present. SBR traders would benefited from this zone. 3. Price approaching in clean structure or candles. Btw, I am not taking this trade since I draw my supply zone without try to place a trendline on the market structure before it. What is your goal this week? Mine still the same. Trade the same setup, if setup no present, I will continue watching "traders motivation videos".
Education
by josephtading
USDJPY Outlook – Bearish Continuation or Bullish Reversal??In this analysis, I'm breaking down the USDJPY structure starting from the 4H to identify the overall market direction (Bearish/Sells), then zooming into the 1H to fine-tune potential trade setups. On the 4H timeframe, we’re assessing whether the recent bearish momentum is likely to continue or if price action is showing early signs of a bullish reversal. The LOW created at 141.800 level is our first target IF we continue to sell as its creating that LowerLow. IF price closes bullish above 142.500, I will switch sides and look for potential buys. On the 1H timeframe, I’m watching for a bullish liquidity sweep below141.888, followed by a clear break of structure to the upside on the 15m or 1H for more confirmation. That would indicate smart money accumulation and a potential shift in market sentiment—giving me confirmation to start looking for long setups. 🚀 Give me a boost and follow for upcoming $niper entries this week! 🦇🔥 CMCMARKETS:USDJPY
Long
by nonstopkev888
2
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 140.84 1st Support: 137.22 1st Resistance: 144.98 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
2
Bullish bounce off major support level?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 140.82 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Stop loss: 137.37 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 100% Fibonacci projection. Take profit: 144.77 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USDJPY: Moving Toward 140 Support In the previous analysis, we mentioned a temporary strengthening of the yen followed by continued decline. Now, after a sharp drop and nearing the key 140 support level, a short-term weakening of the yen is expected, which could be driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar. On the daily timeframe, a temporary rebound from the current price level is likely, followed by the anticipated decline. This potential bounce could provide a new selling opportunity targeting the 140 support level.
Short
by UtoForex
1
USD/JPY: A Reversal of a 10-Year TrendUSD/JPY is down nearly 10% from its January 2025 highs at 157, now trading just above the 140 threshold. The currency pair is testing the base of a 10-year rising wedge, and its recent failure to reclaim support at 148.83 is concerning. Structural Breakdown: If 140 is lost, the potential downside opens to 135, 132, and 127. The last time this pair broke similar structural levels was in 2016–2017, during a major dollar correction. Macro Pressure: A hawkish BoJ and collapsing US yields are reversing the carry trade. Demand for the Yen as a haven asset is rising amid volatility and equity losses.
Short
by Rotuma
Trend Exhaustion SignalsTrend Exhaustion Signals: How to Know When a Trend is Losing Steam Every trend eventually runs out of fuel. Knowing when momentum is fading can give you the edge to exit early, avoid late entries, or even prepare for a reversal. This article dives into key signs of trend exhaustion and how to trade around them. 🔵Understanding Trend Exhaustion Trends can persist far longer than expected, but they don’t last forever. Trend exhaustion occurs when the driving force behind a trend—be it buying or selling pressure—starts to weaken. Recognizing this shift is crucial for: Protecting profits Avoiding bad entries Spotting early reversal opportunities 🔵1. RSI and MACD Divergence A classic signal of trend exhaustion is divergence between price and momentum indicators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence). Bearish Divergence: Price makes a higher high, but the indicator makes a lower high. Bullish Divergence: Price makes a lower low, but the indicator makes a higher low. This suggests that although price continues in the trend's direction, momentum is lagging—a red flag for potential exhaustion. 🔵2. Volume Dry-Up Volume is the fuel of trends. When volume starts to shrink during a strong move, it often signals that the crowd is losing interest or that institutions are offloading positions. In an uptrend, a series of green candles with decreasing volume = caution. In a downtrend, falling volume can signal seller fatigue. 🔵3. Long-Wick Candles at Extremes Candlestick patterns offer visual clues of exhaustion. When you start seeing long upper wicks at the top of an uptrend (or long lower wicks at the bottom of a downtrend), it means price is being rejected from continuing further. Common exhaustion patterns: Shooting Star (bearish) Inverted Hammer (bullish) Doji at highs/lows These patterns are more reliable when they form near resistance or support zones. 🔵4. Structure Break: CHoCH and BOS Market structure tells a deeper story than indicators. Two key terms here: CHoCH (Change of Character): The first sign of reversal—a higher low broken in an uptrend, or a lower high broken in a downtrend. BOS (Break of Structure): The confirmation—a key swing point is broken, confirming a new trend. Traders can watch for these breaks to anticipate when the current trend is ending and a reversal is forming. 🔵5. Parabolic Price Action & Overextension When a trend becomes parabolic—with steep, accelerating price movement—it often signals the final stage of the trend. This is when retail traders usually enter, and smart money begins to exit. Warning signs: Sudden vertical moves Price far above/below moving averages Lack of consolidation or pullbacks Parabolic moves are unsustainable. Look for reversion to the mean or a sharp correction. 🔵How to Trade Around Trend Exhaustion Tighten Stops: If in a winning trend trade, consider locking in profits or trailing your stop. Avoid Chasing Entries: Late entries into exhausted trends are high-risk, low-reward. Prepare for Reversal Setups: Watch for confirmation (CHoCH, divergence, candle patterns) before entering counter-trend positions. Use Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Exhaustion on the 1H chart may just be a pullback on the 4H. Always zoom out for context. Trend exhaustion is a natural part of market behavior. Recognizing the signs—such as divergence, fading volume, long wicks, structure breaks, and parabolic moves—can help you time exits better and avoid late trades. Instead of reacting after the fact, you’ll be prepared in advance. Add these tools to your trading routine and stay one step ahead of the crowd.
Education
by BigBeluga
28
USDJPY 1WUSDJPY Weekly Analysis: Potential Long Opportunity On the weekly timeframe, USDJPY has impulsively closed the previous month's low and reached one of the potential zones of interest. This is where I plan to start accumulating long positions. Target: My primary target is 158.39, which aligns with a key imbalance zone. Tomorrow, I will share more detailed insights and specifics on a local timeframe to refine entry points and further validate the setup. Stay tuned for updates!
by TraderNo007_