USDJPY What Next? SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on USDJPY and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 146.88 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 145.35
Safe Stop Loss - 147.68
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY 1H - market buy with a confirmed structureThe price has bounced from a key support zone and is showing early signs of recovery. A clear base has formed, and the MA50 is starting to turn upward, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. While the MA200 remains above the price, the overall structure suggests a potential continuation of the bullish move.
Trade #1 — entry at market, target: 145.939, stop below recent local low.
Trade #2 — entry after breakout and retest of 145.939, target: 148.000, stop below the retest zone.
Volume has stabilized, and the reaction from support is clear. As long as price holds above the last swing low, buying remains the preferred strategy.
USDJPYUSDJPY Exchange Rate
USDJPY: 144.495(July 5, 2025)
The pair has been trading in the 144.0–145.0 range in early July, reflecting recent yen strength and a broadly weaker US dollar and japan economic outlook.
10-Year Government Bond Yields
Country 10-Year Yield Date
Japan 1.45%
US 4.31-4.38%
Yield Spread (US10Y - JP10Y):
2.86 percentage points (US yield higher)
Policy Interest Rates
Country Policy Rate
Japan 0.50%
US 4.25–4.50%
Key Insights
USDJPY:
The yen has strengthened in 2025, with USDJPY falling from above 160 earlier in the year to the mid-144s in July. This reflects narrowing yield differentials and shifting global risk sentiment.
Bond Yields:
The US 10-year yield remains elevated at 4.31-4.38%, while Japan’s 10-year yield is at 1.45-1.43%, since 2019 jp10y is on the rise ,reflecting japan strong economic outlook
Yield Differential:
The US-Japan 10-year bond yield spread is 2.86%, favoring the US dollar. However, this spread has narrowed from earlier highs, contributing to recent yen strength.
Interest Rate Policy:
The Federal Reserve maintains a 4.25–4.50% target range, with markets expecting possible cuts later in 2025.
The Bank of Japan holds its policy rate at 0.50%, the highest since 2008, but remains cautious about further hikes due to growth and inflation uncertainties.
Summary Table
Metric US Japan Differential
Policy Rate 4.25–4.50% 0.50% 3.75–4.00%
10-Year Bond Yield 4.31% 1.45% 2.86%
Market Implications
USDJPY Direction:
The narrowing yield spread and expectations of Fed rate cuts have pressured USDJPY lower, supporting the yen.
Bond Differential:
The still-wide, but narrowing, US-Japan yield gap remains a key driver for capital flows and currency moves.
Interest Rate Outlook:
Any shift in Fed or BOJ policy will directly impact both the yield spread and USDJPY direction in the coming months.
#usdjpy
Bullish bounce off major support?USD/JPY has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 145.92
1st Support: 145.23
1st Resistance: 147.14
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 146.18
1st Support: 145.01
1st Resistance: 147.62
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal off 78.6% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY has rejected off the resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 146.60
Why we like it:
There is a resistance level that is slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 147.95
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 145.21
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Smart 15-Min Entry on USDJPY – Clear Plan with 2.33 R/R📢 Hey Guys;
I've placed a buy limit order on USDJPY at a key support level.
🔵 Entry: 145.956
🔴 Stop Loss: 145.743
🟢 Targets:
• TP1: 146.069
• TP2: 146.232
• TP3: 146.468
📐 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.33
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Your likes and support are what keep me motivated to share these analyses consistently.
Huge thanks to everyone who shows love and appreciation! 🙏
Bearish drop off pullback resistance?USD/JPY has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 146.50
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 147.17
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 145.21
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USDJPY | Supply zone rejection 💣📉Price ran out internal liquidity, tapped into a refined supply zone, and showed early signs of distribution. Entry taken post-confirmation at the mitigation of the order block, with a clean R:R toward the next demand zone.
🔹 BOS + Liquidity Grab
🔹 Supply Zone Rejection
🔹 Premium Pricing Entry
🔹 Targeting unmitigated demand below (HTF imbalance)
Setup is built around smart money principles—waiting for price to deliver the sell-off. Clean and mechanical.
#SMC #USDJPY #SmartMoney #LiquiditySweep #FXTradingClub #MarketStructure
USDJPY downtrend resistance at 147.30The USDJPY pair is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the falling resistance, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 147.30, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 147.30 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 145.60, followed by 145.10 and 144.65 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 147.30 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 147.70, then 148.14.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the pair breaks and holds above 145.30. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Japan PPI slips to 10-month lowThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.45, up 0.10% on the day.
Japan's Producer Price Index rose 2.9% y/y in June, down from an upwardly revised 3.3% in May and matching the consensus. This marked the lowest increase since August 2024. On a monthly basis, PPI fell 0.2%, a second straight decline after a 0.1% decline in May.
The PPI report signals that underlying inflation pressures are dropping at the producer level, which could delay the BoJ's plans to hike rates and normalize policy. The BoJ has been in a wait-and-see stance since it raised rates in January, exercising caution in a turbulent economic environment. The Bank of Japan held rates in June and meets next on July 31.
The FOMC minutes indicated a broad consensus that the Fed will deliver additional rate cuts this year. The pace of those cuts, however, is up for debate. Some members favored cutting as soon as the July meeting, while others were more cautious and wanted to see where inflation and employment were headed. President Trump's tariffs have not boosted inflation so far, but the tariff effect on inflation could be felt in the following months and the Fed remains cautious. Fed Chair Powell has stuck to his guns, pushing back against persistent calls from President Trump to lower rates.
Fed policymakers are keeping a close eye on the US labor market, which has softened but not deteriorated. Earlier, unemployment claims dropped to 227 thousand, down from a revised 232 thousand in the previous release and below the consensus of 235 thousand.