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USDJPY trade ideas

USDJPY BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDJPY is moving in an UP trend channel. The chart broke through the dynamic Resistance line, which now acts as support. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity USDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
Long
by TheGrove
1
USDJPY - Potential Reversal and Key Levels to WatchUSDJPY - Potential Reversal and Key Levels to Watch USDJPY pair is currently trading around 154.60, showing signs of a possible correction after a strong bullish move and today's FOMC decision. The price touched a key resistance zone beginning at around 154.50, which aligns with historical supply levels. Elliott Wave Structure The current wave count suggests that we might be nearing the completion of a larger impulsive structure. The five-wave sequence to the upside appears to be reaching exhaustion, indicating that a corrective move (potentially in the form of an ABC pattern) could follow. The completion of Wave (5) near the recent highs reinforces this corrective scenario. Key Support Levels On the downside, significant support can be found around the 150.00-152.00 range, where multiple factors come into play: Strong institutional demand is likely in this zone, as indicated by a large order block. The 0.618 and 0.764 Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous bullish (beginning in early Dec. 2024) move also converge here, offering further validation for potential buy-side activity. If the price corrects further, we expect these levels to act as a major buffer against extended downside movement. A break below 150.00, however, could open the door for deeper retracements towards 145.00 and below. Upside Potential Should the current consolidation break higher, USD/JPY could aim to retest the critical resistance between 154.50 and 156.00. A clean break above this zone would invalidate the immediate bearish outlook and open the path towards new highs, possibly targeting the 160.00 psychological level. Momentum & Volume The VOLD shows a mixed picture, with momentum slowing down but not yet turning decisively bearish. This suggests that the market is at a key inflection point, where further price action will determine the next trend. Bulls need to clear the 156.00 resistance to regain full control, while bears will be watching for a breakdown below 152.00 for confirmation of a deeper correction. Conclusion USD/JPY is trading at a critical juncture. The resistance at 154.50-156.00 will be crucial in determining whether we see a continuation of the uptrend or a deeper correction. Traders should watch for a potential pullback to the 154.00-152.00 zone as a key area for possible long entries, while a break below these levels could signal a more pronounced bearish phase. On the upside, a breakout above 156.00 would suggest that the bulls are regaining momentum and aiming for new highs.
Long
by Ochlokrat
USD/JPY 4H Timeframe AnalysisUSD/JPY 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend Analysis: The USD/JPY pair is currently in an uptrend, having successfully broken key minor resistance levels, including 156.800, which has now turned into support. This break signals the continuation of bullish momentum, confirmed by the formation of higher highs and higher lows. Recently, the pair broke the 157.500 minor resistance, further indicating that buyers have stepped in. The price action is now moving towards the next major resistance level at 160.900. Additionally, price action has shown signs of manipulation or liquidity grabs at key levels. The price briefly dipped below support, hunting stop losses before reversing direction. This has set up the potential for a continuation of the uptrend, as the market clears out stop losses and accumulates liquidity for the next leg up. Price Action Expectation: We are observing liquidity being formed below the 156.800 support level. We are now waiting for a breakout above 157.500 to confirm the continuation of the bullish trend. The plan is to place a buy stop order at 157.690, just above the minor resistance, to enter the market once this level is broken. A stop loss will be placed below the liquidity zone at 156.500, a strategic location to manage risk. Trade Setup: Trade Type: Buy Stop Entry Price: 157.690 (just above the minor resistance after a breakout) Stop Loss: 156.500 (below the liquidity zone) Take Profit: 160.900 (next minor resistance level) Additional Considerations: The current bullish setup remains valid, but traders should be cautious of any potential reversal signs if the price fails to break above 157.500. If price action shows signs of rejection at these levels, a shift in trend could occur. Monitoring any significant news events or economic releases will also be important to avoid unexpected market moves. Conclusion: The USD/JPY pair is showing strong bullish momentum, supported by the technical breakout of key resistance levels. As the price moves toward the next resistance at 160.900, careful risk management is crucial. Traders should be prepared for possible pullbacks or consolidations around key levels while maintaining a focus on trend continuation. Economic events and market sentiment can still influence the strength of the USD against the JPY, so staying alert to these factors is essential.
Long
by RebornFXTrader
USDJPY InsightHello, Subscribers! Great to see you all. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - The U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for December dropped sharply by 8.1 points from the previous month to 104.7, marking its first decline in three months. - The decline is attributed to uncertainty surrounding policies from the Trump administration, which will begin on January 20, leading to weakened short-term consumer sentiment among Americans. - Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, stated, "In December, consumers were significantly less optimistic about future business conditions and income. Following cautious optimism in October and November, pessimism has returned regarding future employment prospects." - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.5990%, its highest level since May, while the FedWatch tool reflects a 91.4% probability of a rate pause in January. Major Economic Events + December 25: Christmas + December 26: Boxing Day USD/JPY Chart Analysis After breaking past the 157 resistance level with ease, USD/JPY extended its gains to the 158 level. If it breaks through this zone, further upward momentum toward the 160–161 range is anticipated. Conversely, failure to breach the 158 resistance could lead to a pullback toward the 154 level. We will swiftly adjust our strategy if unexpected movements occur.
Long
by shawntime_academy
USDJPY - Potential Volatility AlertThose of you that follow USDJPY and yen crosses in general, know how quickly they can change direction within a short time frame, especially when there are big event drivers like the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions scheduled within 12 hours of each other. That is the case tonight, with the Fed interest rate decision released at 1900 GMT and the BoJ interest rate decision released early on Thursday morning at 0300 GMT. Current market expectations are for the Fed to cut 25bp (0.25%) and for BoJ to remain unchanged, potentially holding off on a further rate hike until early 2025. However, there is always the chance that either central bank produces a surprise which may increase FX market volatility. Also, in play are the comments from Fed Chairman Powell in the press conference which starts at 1930 GMT on Wednesday. There is some nervousness amongst traders surrounding what Fed policymakers may signal regarding the pace of rate cuts during 2025, given how strong the US economic data readings have been recently. Similarly, the comments of BoJ Governor Ueda regarding inflation, strength of the Japanese economy, and future rate hikes, are also important when he speaks in the BoJ press conference which starts at 0630 GMT on Thursday. USDJPY – Potential Chart Levels to Watch Clearly, the reaction to the Fed and BoJ announcements may have significant implications for USDJPY. As such, you should be aware of the potential for greater volatility which can increase risks for any open positions during these uncertain periods.  The reaction to the announcements may see swift changes in direction of price and sharp reversals of previous activity. Reduction of position sizes and more proactive placement of stops maybe required over this period.  With that in mind, we want to look at possible support and resistance levels traders may be focusing on, up to and over these decisions.  Resistance Points to Watch   Having established a low of 148.64 on December 3rd a recovery period has developed, seeing USDJPY push up to 1 month highs of 154.48 (December 16th high) at the start of this week. A possible positive development within this move higher has been the closing break above the Bollinger mid-average (currently at 152.09). This average can often act as a resistance level while falling within a downtrend in price, so the break higher above this line last week, and the mid-average changing direction from declining to flat, may reflect a potential short term momentum shift. Next resistance levels could now be marked by the November 20th session high of 155.89, or even 156.75, which was the November monthly upside extreme. Closing breaks of these levels, if seen, while not a guarantee of future upside, may be a sign of further price strength towards the July 3rd high of 161.95, Support Levels   With any potential reaction to either the Fed or BoJ announcements providing the possibility for a swift reversal of recent upside USDJPY strength, we must be aware of some support levels.  The first support focus may be the Bollinger mid-average we discussed earlier at 152.09. Interestingly, this level is very similar to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the December recovery, which stands at 152.15. So, breaks below this area could be a trigger for a more extended phase of USDJPY weakness.  If the break lower was to occur, it may open the possibility of a test of the deeper 61.8 retracement level at 150.79, or even a further move towards 148.63, which is the December monthly low, although this will only be determined by future price action and is in no way guaranteed. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
USDJPY Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward. --- Conclusion Order Blocks and Breaker Blocks help identify zones where large players may enter the market. Imbalances highlight areas where the price might return to balance demand and supply. Inverted FVGs help traders avoid traps set by large players and enter the market more strategically.
Short
by Tonksovave
USD/JPY (24/12): Continuing UptrendToday, the USD/JPY pair is heavily influenced by the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Although the current interest rate of the BoJ is 0.25%, the BoJ is expected to consider raising it to 1.0% by the end of 2025 if inflation and the economy improve. However, for now, the BoJ maintains a cautious stance due to global and domestic economic uncertainties. Japan's economy may continue to grow with increased consumption and wages, but it still faces the challenge of deflation. The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently rising slightly due to the significant interest rate differential between Japan and the US. On the 4-hour chart, the USD/JPY pair is in an uptrend. The nearest support level is 156.50; if the price falls below this level, a slight correction may occur, but the overall trend remains bullish unless there are major changes from the BoJ or global factors. If the USD/JPY rate stays above the 156.50 support level, this could present a buying opportunity, with the target approaching the nearest resistance level at 157.67. If this level is broken, the pair could continue toward the next target of 158.00 or even 160.00.
by Alisa_Rokosz
USDJPY H1 I Bearish Breakout?Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our sell entry at 157.04, A bearish breakout. Our take profit will be at 156.22, which is a pullback support level. The stop loss will be placed at 157.80, which is a swing high level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Short
by FXCM
USDJPY: HTF DT ANALYSIS (1D)HIGH TIMEFRAME DOWNTREND ANALYSIS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Resistance: 161.03 (Major Resistance, distal) 158.33 (Major Resistance, proximal) These levels are aligned with previous rejection zones. 157.8650 (Sell Stoploss Zones) Support: 147.7718 (Strong pivot level from historical lows). 144.8898 and 144.1802 (Mid pivot and buy orders zone). Pivot Zones: 153.4900 (Sell limit identified) 149.7555 (Mid Pivot TP 2 target). Trend: The pair is in a downtrend as highlighted on the chart, with key resistance zones being tested. Pivot Highs and Lows: Pivot highs are aligning with bearish divergences, as seen in areas of DT (Double Top) confirmations. Pivot lows signal potential reversals near support levels, supported by UT (Upward Trend) signals. Volume and Risk Metrics: Volume around Resistance 158 shows diminishing upward momentum, increasing the likelihood of rejection. Risk Index: 0.01853 indicates manageable risk levels for short trades. Reward Index: -0.01521 signifies opportunities for improved reward setups on lower timeframes. PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT Bearish Scenario: Rejection from the 153-158 range offers significant downside probability toward 147.77 and 144.18. Bullish Recovery: A confirmed breakout above 158.04 with strong volume could invalidate the bearish outlook, targeting 160.00. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Macroeconomic Context: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained ultra-loose monetary policies, which contrasts with the U.S. Federal Reserve's higher interest rate stance. This divergence favors dollar strength. However, seasonal tendencies show that December often has corrective movements due to year-end profit-taking and reduced trading liquidity. Economic Data: Upcoming U.S. GDP and BoJ Monetary Policy Minutes could catalyze volatility. Watch for geopolitical developments impacting the Yen as a safe-haven currency. Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment is cautious. With the chart showing multiple sell zones and exhaustion signals Traders may wait for confirmation before heavy entries. TRADE RECOMMENDATIONS High-Risk Opportunities: Sell Entry: Stop Loss: Above 158.0416 157.06 (Sell Limit Order) 155.44 (Sell Stop Order 1) 153.49 (Sell Stop Order 2) Target: 147.84 (Major Support) Buy Entry: Entry: Near 144.1802 Stop Loss: Below 141.64
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
USDJPY new bullish for expect FX:USDJPY trend based analysis, we having in period from 1.12 - 9.12 ROUNDED BOTTOM pattern visible, price is make break of same and confirmation of same (yellow line) and its make short bullish push, currently price in consolidation, its on strong ex. zone 151.800 (violet line). What here expecting after todays and past events in this week, still looks like we will have strong USD and here exepcting to see new bullish push. SUP zone:151.450 RES zone:154.550, 155.050
Long
by DepaTrading
3