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USDJPY trade ideas

0527: Bearish USD/JPY: BoJ Rate Hike Expectations Hello traders, In the futures market, I once again came across a more "interesting" piece of data. The COT position data showed that the speculative long positions in the Japanese yen soared to 167,330 contracts, reaching an extreme level not seen in recent years. ★ I would like to present another set of data: ✔ In April, the price of rice in Japan soared by 98.4% year-on-year, marking the largest monthly increase since 1971. This increase was even higher than the 92.1% in March. ✔ The Japanese government cancelled subsidies for gas and electricity in March, causing energy prices to rise by 9.3%. ✔ Japan's core CPI excluding fresh food rose by 3.5% year-on-year, higher than 3.2% in March. This is the fifth consecutive month of core inflation above 3%. ✔ Meanwhile, the Japanese economy contracted by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first negative growth since the first quarter of 2024. ✔ Within 45 days, the yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds soared by 100 basis points, reaching a record high of 3.20%. Over 500 billion US dollars of 40-year Japanese government bonds, regarded as "safe assets", have depreciated by more than 20% in the past 6 weeks. Technically, weekly chart, UJ has make a bearish reversed bowl top and now this pair is targeting south running beneath WEEKLY EMAs. The support zone that be test triple would become resistance zone very soon. The weekly selling targets are marked out on this chart! Based on the latest market trends and the policy signals from the Bank of Japan, there is a high probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its next meeting (expected to be in June 2025). It is now the time to buy the expectation and sell the reality. GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
Short
by FUNTRADER-Vera
Trump tariffs spark market jitters....again | FX ResearchAsian markets have shown mixed performance on this Monday. Treasury Secretary Bessant announced plans to relax the supplementary leverage ratio this summer, potentially lowering government borrowing costs by enabling banks to trade more treasuries, while dismissing concerns about rising US bond yields. However, US fiscal challenges persist with deficits over 6% of GDP and a 120% debt-to-GDP ratio—historically stabilised only by high inflation or asset bubbles—raising doubts about sustainable debt reduction without fiscal reform. President Trump's recent moves, including a 50% tariff on European goods, a 25% levy on foreign smartphones, and the blocking of international students at Harvard, continue to fuel market uncertainty, amplified by US and UK market closures for public holidays. Key US data this week includes the FOMC minutes, GDP estimates, and the core PCE price index. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY Breakdown: Is 140 the Next Target? Smart Money Says Yes!USD/JPY is currently in a highly interesting technical and macro phase, characterized by divergences between price action and institutional positioning, negative seasonal signals, and retail sentiment that goes against what would typically be expected in a reversal scenario. Let’s break it down: 1. Institutional Positioning (COT Report) The COT data reveals a mixed picture with bearish implications for USD/JPY: On the USD side, non-commercial traders continue to increase their net long exposure (+2,044 new long contracts this week). However, this rise is almost equally offset by +1,975 new shorts, indicating indecision and hedging activity. For the Japanese Yen, non-commercials (speculators) are significantly rebuilding long JPY positions, while commercials have started covering their short exposure. 📌 Implication: The net flow favors the Yen, meaning bearish pressure on USD/JPY. The increase in JPY long positions reflects expectations of a stronger Yen in the short to medium term. 2. Historical Seasonality Seasonal data reinforces the bearish bias: In May and June, USD/JPY has historically posted negative returns. The 5-year average shows -0.57 in May and -0.76 in June, with both the 2Y and 10Y averages confirming a similar downward seasonal pattern. 📌 Implication: The current seasonal window does not favor a USD rebound vs. the Yen. Historically, the likelihood of downside increases into early summer. 3. Retail Sentiment Retail traders are heavily long, with 64% positioned long on USD/JPY versus 36% short. 📌 Implication: From a contrarian perspective, this is a bearish signal. Markets tend to move against retail positioning, adding further downside risk. 4. Price Action & Technical Structure (Daily Chart) On the weekly chart: Price broke the key 144.00 support decisively, closing the week at 142.81. Structure shows lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend. RSI is falling but still above oversold levels, leaving room for further downside. First demand zone: 141.50–142.20. A confirmed break could open the way to 140.00–139.80. Key resistance on any pullback: 145.00–146.00. 📌 Implication: The confirmed break of support activated a bearish continuation setup, unless short-term bounces offer new sell opportunities near resistance. 5. Market Depth Market depth shows a strong cluster of long orders above current levels, while short volumes appear fragmented. This suggests any short-term rally could face aggressive selling between 144.50–145.50. 🎯 Conclusion & Operational Outlook The overall context points to a high probability of further downside in USD/JPY over the short to medium term: Smart money is rotating toward the Yen. Seasonal patterns historically support a drop in May–June. Contrarian retail sentiment adds additional bearish weight. The weekly chart confirms a break of structure, opening space below 141.50.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
USDJPY Bearish Continuation Setup Trend Analysis The market is in a clear downtrend, evidenced by the sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The descending trendline has been respected multiple times, acting as dynamic resistance. 🧠 Key Technical Factors Rejection Zone (Supply Area): The marked “Rejection Point” aligns with the confluence of the trendline resistance, 50 EMA (red), and historical supply. Price attempted to break above but faced a strong rejection—signaling institutional sell interest. EMA Confluence: 50 EMA (142.993) and 200 EMA (144.063) are both sloping downward. Price is trading below both EMAs, confirming bearish momentum and trend continuation bias. BOS (Break of Structure): Multiple BOS levels marked, showing a consistent pattern of structure breaks to the downside. Each rally is met with selling pressure, failing to create new highs. 🧩 Projected Price Action Current retracement could retest the trendline/50 EMA before a potential continuation move downward. Expectation is a lower high formation near the descending trendline followed by a bearish impulse. 🏹 Bias: Bearish Traders might consider short opportunities around the 142.90–143.00 zone, targeting 142.00 and below, with stops just above the trendline/supply zone. ⚠️ Risk Note A clean break and close above the trendline and 50 EMA would invalidate this setup and could lead to a shift in structure.
Short
by MrStellanSight
8
USDJPY Demand Zone Consolidation. Wait for BRT Above or BelowIf CMP crosses above top zone and closes on 1H chart, take the Buy Retest. If CMP crosses below the bottom zone and closes on the 1H chart, take the Sell Retest. Go for 1:1 risk to reward MINIMUM. This strategy is 7-8 out of 10 (70-80%) but can produce upwards of 90% accuracy. Be patient. Be disciplined. Be consistent. 30 pips SL // 30 pips TP *This is not financial advice. Trading involves risk, do not over leverage. Risk only what you are willing to lose.* If you are actively monitoring your trade, you can remove your TP once price goes into profit and start a trailing stop! At 10 pips, move your SL into profit at 2-3 pips to break even. If price goes to 20 pips in profit, set your SL at 10 pips of profit. You are more than welcome to accept the full SL (risk) and let the trade play out. SET IT AND FORGET IT. Take partials at structural pivot points (aka swing highs and swing lows) if you hold the winning trade longer than original TP! Happy trading! #HiddenWealthSociety #HWS
by KyleBFrederick
USDJPYUSD/JPY Interest Rate Differential, 10-Year Bond Yields, and Carry Trade Analysis (May 26–30, 2025) Current 10-Year Bond Yields US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.54% (as of May 21–22, 2025) . Japan 10-Year JGB Yield: 1.56% (as of May 23, 2025) . Interest Rate Differential (IRD) The yield spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds is:4.54%(US)−1.56%(JPY)=+2.98% 4.54% (US)−1.56% (JPY)=+2.98% This significant differential favors the US dollar, making USD/JPY attractive for carry trades. Carry Trade Advantage Investors borrow low-yielding JPY (at ~0.5% BoJ policy rate) to invest in higher-yielding USD assets, earning the ~2.98% yield spread as profit. The strategy is supported by the Fed’s relatively hawkish stance compared to the BoJ’s cautious approach, despite Japan’s rising inflation (core CPI at 3.5% in April 2025) . Bank of Japan Policy Signals: Rising inflation and revised Leading Economic Index (108.1 for March 2025) may pressure the BoJ to tighten policy, narrowing the yield differential. Market expectations for BoJ rate hikes could strengthen JPY, reducing carry trade appeal. USD/JPY has fallen below 143.00 amid JPY strength , but oversold conditions suggest potential short-term corrections. US-China trade tensions and tariffs may introduce volatility, affecting risk sentiment. Summary Table Metric United States (USD) Japan (JPY) 10-Year Bond Yield 4.54% 1.56% Interest Rate Differential +2.98% (USD over JPY) — Carry Trade Appeal Favorable for long USD/JPY — Conclusion The ~2.98% yield differential strongly supports USD/JPY carry trades, but traders should monitor: BoJ policy shifts: Potential rate hikes could narrow the spread and weaken USD/JPY. Fed rhetoric and US data: Hawkish signals may sustain USD strength, while dovish surprises could reduce the yield advantage. Technical levels: A break below 142.00 could signal further JPY strength, eroding carry trade profits. While the carry trade remains attractive, volatility from policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks requires careful risk management during this period.. #GOLD #FOREX #USDJPY#DOLLAR #YEN
by Shavyfxhub
1
USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 14USDJPY – Diverging Policies Drive Yen into Pressure Zone near 144 🌍 Macro Landscape: JPY Stuck Between Two Diverging Forces In recent weeks, the US dollar has regained strength as the Federal Reserve remains committed to its "higher-for-longer" interest rate stance. On the flip side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, widening the yield spread between the USD and JPY, and putting pressure on the yen. The surge in US 10-year yields toward 4.5% is further dampening demand for JPY as a safe haven, prompting institutional capital outflows from the yen and inflows into USD-based assets. 🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence: Fed Remains Firm, BoJ Stays Dovish Federal Reserve: FOMC members continue to signal patience on rate cuts. Recent inflation data (PCE, CPI) shows sticky price pressure, especially in services. Bank of Japan: BoJ remains hesitant to normalize policy despite inflation consistently above the 2% target. This policy divergence is reminiscent of the conditions that pushed USDJPY above 151 last year — and current dynamics hint that history may repeat. 🌐 Capital Flows: JPY Loses Safe-Haven Appeal Global capital flow models indicate a major shift. While gold and the US dollar are once again sought-after hedges amid US-China tensions and EU fiscal risk, the Japanese yen is being overlooked. Japan’s debt-to-GDP ratio — the highest in the G7 — forces BoJ to maintain low rates to keep the fiscal structure sustainable. As a result, JPY is no longer viewed as a reliable store of safety. 📊 Technical Structure: Momentum Building Toward 144.1 On the H1 chart: Price bounced sharply from the 142.33 demand zone, forming a higher low. EMA 13 – 34 – 89 show a bullish alignment ("fan-out formation") confirming short-term bullish momentum. Resistance near 144.13–144.20 is key: a clean breakout could trigger an extended rally to 145.00+ However, this zone may also trigger profit-taking, especially if traders react to upcoming macro data. 🎯 Trade Strategy Recommendations Scenario 1 – Buy the Pullback (Preferred): Entry: 142.70 – 142.90 Stop-Loss: 142.30 Take-Profit: 143.80 → 144.13 → 144.60 Scenario 2 – Breakout Momentum Buy: Entry: 144.15 Stop-Loss: 143.70 Take-Profit: 145.00 → 145.50 ⚠️ Key Events to Watch: US PCE Price Index (April): If hotter-than-expected, this would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish tone and lift USD. BoJ Governor Speech (end of week): Any unexpected hawkish shift could trigger a short-term rebound in JPY.
Long
by MMFlowTrading
10
USDJPY – Targeting Structure Break for ABC Sell Setup 📉 USDJPY – Targeting Structure Break for ABC Sell Setup 📉 🔹 Timeframe: 30M 🔹 Methodology: Elliott Wave + AO + Structure Break + BBMA ⸻ 🔍 Current Market Outlook: I’m currently observing Wave 4 playing out as a complex correction. Price is pushing toward the key level 142.796, which I expect to break structure (BOS) to the upside. Once that level is cleared, I’ll be watching closely for signs of an ABC corrective move to form — setting up a high-probability sell opportunity aligned with the final Wave 5 leg. ⸻ 🧠 Key Technical Highlights: ✅ Wave Count: • Wave 3 is confirmed by the strongest momentum on the AO • Wave 4 is unfolding and approaching structure at 142.796 • AO shows decreasing bullish momentum, hinting at possible exhaustion ✅ Plan: • Wait for break above 142.796 • Monitor for completion of ABC correction • Enter short after C-leg confirmation • TP at 1.618–1.786 Fib extension zone (141.818–141.614) • Anticipating bullish divergence on AO by the end of Wave 5 ⸻ 📌 Confluence Checklist: ✔️ Wave theory ✔️ BOS expected ✔️ Fibonacci targets ✔️ AO divergence setting up ✔️ BBMA structure alignment ⸻ 🎯 Strategy Summary: Break 142.796 ➝ Spot ABC ➝ Enter short on C ➝ Ride Wave 5 ➝ TP @ extension zone ⸻ 💬 Share your thoughts—Are you seeing the same potential Wave 5 setup? Let’s discuss. 👉 Follow me for clean structure-based analysis, BBMA setups, and advanced wave insights. #USDJPY #ElliottWave #ForexSetup #WaveAnalysis #BBMA #AOindicator #MarketStructure #BreakOfStructure #SmartMoney #SellTheRally #Wave5 #ForexStrategy
Short
by AwesomeOscDad
USDJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for USDJPY. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 145.469. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 142.516 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
JPY/USD Rising Wedge Breakdown – Bearish Reversal in Play🔎 Technical Breakdown: 1. Rising Wedge Formation: The pair has been trading within a Rising Wedge, a bearish reversal pattern that forms when price makes higher highs and higher lows but with diminishing momentum. The wedge is visible from the swing low on May 13, where price began to climb aggressively but within increasingly narrow price action. This narrowing range signals weakening bullish strength. 2. Key Resistance Zone: The wedge forms right below a Major Resistance Zone marked earlier in the chart (around 0.007050), where price had previously faced heavy selling pressure. This adds confluence to the bearish bias, as the zone historically acted as a turning point. 3. SR Interchange Zone: Below the wedge lies a Support-turned-Resistance (SR) Interchange level, a critical price area where past support may now act as resistance if the price attempts to retrace. This is a commonly watched level by institutional and technical traders. 4. Breakdown Confirmation: The price has broken below the wedge's lower trendline, which is often considered the breakdown signal. A valid breakdown typically includes a close outside the wedge body followed by a retest or continuation. 5. Bearish Target: The projected move is toward 0.006796, derived by measuring the wedge height and applying it from the breakdown point. This level aligns with a historical support zone, adding more confluence to the target. 🧠 Psychological & Structural View: Bullish exhaustion: Buyers pushed price higher into resistance, but momentum slowed, signaling exhaustion. Trapped longs: Traders who entered late in the wedge may now be trapped, potentially accelerating a sell-off as they exit. Smart money behavior: Rising wedges near resistance often signal distribution by smart money before a drop. 🛠️ Trading Plan Suggestion (Not Financial Advice): Entry: After a clear wedge breakdown, consider short entries on a retest of the broken trendline or a bearish candle confirmation. SL: Above the wedge high or major resistance zone. TP: Staggered exits below 0.006850 and final target around 0.006796. 🔁 What to Watch For: Retest of the wedge breakdown (potential short entry zone) Momentum confirmation via volume or bearish candles Price reaction at SR Interchange and final support target 🧠 Minds Section – Condensed Summary JPY/USD formed a Rising Wedge below major resistance, signaling bullish exhaustion. Price has broken down from the wedge, confirming bearish momentum. A clean breakdown targets 0.006796, with SR interchange acting as a minor support. A retest of the wedge breakdown could offer a good short opportunity.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
USDJPY – Bearish Channel Holds, Eyes on Support BreakUSDJPY is currently trading within a clearly defined bearish channel on the 3H timeframe, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. After a slight bounce from the 142.50 support zone, the price is now heading toward the 143.30 resistance area — which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. This is a zone likely to face rejection and renewed selling pressure. On the news front, Moody’s recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating due to concerns over prolonged budget deficits, putting pressure on the USD. Although the interest rate gap between the Fed and the BoJ still favors the dollar, current market sentiment is making it harder for USDJPY to maintain a strong rally. If the 143.30 resistance holds, the price is likely to be pushed back down to retest the 141.07 support zone — a previous low and the lower boundary of the descending channel. A confirmed break below this level would signal further downside, with the next target below the 140.00 mark.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
Long Entry Idea 📈 USD/JPY Weekly Swing Setup 🗓️ Bias: Long from Weekly Demand Zone 📍 Context: Price is approaching a higher-timeframe demand block with a strong reaction expected. Structure shows repeated sweeps and rejection near weekly EQ. Looking to catch the macro reversal from the lows before liquidity floods the upside. 🟦 ENTRY ZONE 141.300 – 140.900 Weekly demand + prior structural sweep + inside discount territory 🔻 STOP LOSS 139.700 Below major liquidity shelf + protected weekly low 🧨 Risk: ~160 pips 🛡 Use position sizing accordingly 🎯 TAKE PROFITS Target Price Reason TP1 143.951 High chance reclaim to minor resistance TP2 144.921 Weekly EQ zone TP3 146.178 Clean inefficiency + OB fill TP4 149.385 Final premium zone / supply 📌 Trade Narrative Looking for a long setup off weekly demand between 141.300–140.900. Expecting bullish reversal and liquidity run through prior highs. Structure is showing signs of exhaustion on the bearish leg, and weekly CHoCH zones have formed. TP1 holds ~80% probability as it aligns with daily inefficiency and structure. Remaining targets scale through unfilled FVGs into premium territory. 🧠 Risk-Reward SL: 139.700 Entry: 141.300 TP1: 143.951 → ~2.6R TP4: 149.385 → ~5R+
Long
by MillionaireMind717
USD/JPY H4 | Overhead pressures remain?USD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 143.27 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 144.42 which is a level that sits above the 23.6% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 141.96 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
Bullish bounce off overlap support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 142.12 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Stop loss: 140.16 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 145% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 144.58 Why we lik eit: There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets