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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY: Bearish Momentum and Key Support TestThe USD/JPY analysis as of February 18, 2025, shows a clear bearish structure, with the price breaking below key support levels, particularly around 152.70, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. The February 17 close at 151.456 confirms the downward trend after the recent high of 154.79 on February 12, highlighting the weakness of the US dollar against the strengthening Japanese yen. The yen’s appreciation was driven by Japan’s unexpectedly strong GDP data, which showed an annualized growth of 2.8%, far exceeding expectations and fueling speculation of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan. In contrast, the US dollar has been under pressure due to weak retail sales data and a general lack of bullish catalysts. The chart setup highlights a key demand zone between 150.50 and 151.00, where the price is showing an initial reaction, suggesting a possible technical rebound. However, the overall structure remains weak, and unless the price can stabilize above 152.50-153.00, the risk of further downside remains high. The next significant resistance lies between 154.50 and 156.00, an area with concentrated sell orders and a potential reversal point in case of recovery. Conversely, a break below 150.50 would open the way toward 148.00 and even lower levels, with a critical support zone around 146.00. The short-term trading range could remain between 151.00 and 155.00, with strong dependence on upcoming macroeconomic developments, particularly statements from the Bank of Japan and economic updates from the United States.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
USDJPY. The price is at a key level – shorts might be relevant!Hey traders and investors! An interesting situation in the currency pair. The price has returned below the upper boundary of the range at 149.4. Is all the traded volume above this level fueling further price decline? There is a lot of volume up there... We are watching how the price interacts with 148.644. A breakout of this level by sellers and its defense would be a strong signal to look for selling opportunities. Potential target: 142-139. I wish you profitable trades!
by AlexeyWolf
USD/JPY - Potential Targets & OutcomesDear Friends, How I see it: If price can find enough demand above 148.500, pair might attempt a rally. Potential Long Targets - reasons indicated. 1) 150.185 2) 150.730 3) 151.173 If strong bearish behavior under 4HR trend persists with DXY holding under 107. Potential Short Targets - 1) 148.600 2) 147.324 3) 146.480 Key notes: Price is currently at a pivot; possible reversal attempts or further decline. I would only consider any rally a reversal "attempt" - above the 38.20% FIB. Otherwise, all rallies will just be corrections. In a bearish environment - SELL THE RALLIES. Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
by ANROC
USD/JPY – Retesting key resistance before declineThe market is undergoing a correction after breaking its bullish structure. The weakening US Dollar (USD) has created favorable conditions for other assets, including the Japanese Yen (JPY). USD/JPY is currently retesting the previously broken trendline following a strong downward impulse. On Thursday, the Yen reached its highest level in 10 weeks, pushing USD/JPY down to 149.5. Escalating trade tensions driven by Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have led investors to seek safe-haven assets. Additionally, expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike have further strengthened JPY’s position in the market. In the short term, USD/JPY may continue a corrective rebound, testing the 0.618 - 0.5 Fibonacci retracement zone before resuming its downward movement.
Short
by Bentradegold
USDJPY → Retest of key resistance before fallingFX:USDJPY breaks the bullish structure of the market. Dolla in the correction phase has a favorable impact on the market. The currency pair is forming a retest of the previously broken trendline after a strong impulse The yen reached a 10-week high on Thursday, causing the USDJPY pair to fall to 149.5. Investors are looking for safe-haven assets due to increased trade tensions caused by Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policy. The Japanese currency received additional support due to expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, which will increase its attractiveness for investors For now, the focus is on the 0.5 fibo resistance zone, 150.95, and previously broken upside support Support levels: 149.5, 148.64 Resistance levels: 150.95, 151.4 Most likely, before a possible fall, the price will be able to test the previously broken support, and now it is resistance 150.95 - 151.4. False breakdown of the key Fibo zones may provoke further fall. Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
2
USD/JPY Pain Chainthe USD/JPY pair remains a market that could have implications across other markets, similar to what we saw last summer when the initial stages of the unwinding carry trade drove a global equity sell-off. In that episode USD/JPY lost a little more than 2,000 pips and this caused strong bearish moves in U.S. equities, particularly the high-flying large cap tech that had rallied for so long from the 2022 lows. But at that point cooler heads prevailed and the Bank of Japan suddenly didn't want to hike rates any longer, and as the USD recovered in Q4, so did USD/JPY. Soon, headlines were proclaiming the return of the carry trade but given the continued cutting stance from the FOMC, that argument didn't make much sense. So far in 2025 and as evidence has mounted that the USD may have topped, there's growing fear that another episode of carry unwind may be before us. Last week saw USD/JPY re-test the 150.00 level, and even as Bank of Japan members sounded in no hurry to hike rates, helping to bring a bounce back above 150.00, an abysmal US PMI print brought bears back, leading to another push below 150.00 as a strong sell-off ensued in USD/JPY. And this time equities similarly sold off and this could be highlighting the shared relationship, of the carry trade driving leverage in high-flying names and the unwind of the carry trade coming with a de-leveraging event across global markets. This isn't a foregone conclusion, however, as we've seen Japanese policy makers help to move markets back from the ledge multiple times already. - js
by FOREXcom
USDJPY: Bullish signal on the 0.5 Fib.USDJPY is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 32.042, MACD = -1.350, ADX = 47.008), pulling back on a technical retrace inside the long term Channel Up. This bullish wave correction is identical to the 0.5 Fibonacci pullback of December 29th 2023 that also traded on similar RSI levels. We expect the price to start recovering now and aim at the 1.382 Fibonacci. Go long, TP = 166.300. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
USDJPY below psychologically important 150.00 levelThe USDJPY fell below the psychologically important 150.00 level. Markets are pricing in a roughly 84% chance of a 25bps hike at the BoJ July meeting, up from a 70% chance at the start of the month. The USDJPY currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 150.80, which is the current swing high. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 150.80 level could target the downside support at 149.20 followed by 147.90 and 147.20 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 150.80 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 152.30 resistance level followed by 154.40. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
USDJPY Set To Grow! BUY! My dear followers, This is my opinion on theUSDJPY next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 150.36 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 151.52 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
2
USD/JPY Recovers After Dropping Below 150 Yen per DollarUSD/JPY Recovers After Dropping Below 150 Yen per Dollar As the USD/JPY chart shows: → Yesterday, the pair fell below the psychological level of 150 yen per dollar. → However, today it staged a strong recovery, rising back above this level. The yen weakened following the release of Japan's inflation data. According to Forex Factory, the National Core CPI increased by 3.2% year-over-year (forecast: 3.1%, previous: 3.0%). According to Reuters: → The 19-month high in CPI strengthens expectations of further interest rate hikes in Japan. → The yen is weakening as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank may step up government bond purchases if long-term interest rates rise. Can USD/JPY Continue to Rise? USD/JPY Technical Analysis On 12th February, we noted that key highs and lows over the past three months formed an ascending channel, with the 154 yen per dollar level acting as a resistance barrier. Indeed, since then, bulls have failed to sustain levels above 154 yen per dollar (as indicated by the arrow), leading to a decline below the lower boundary of the blue channel after a brief rebound on 18th February. As a result, the former support at the lower boundary of the blue channel may now act as resistance around 151.3 yen per dollar, reinforcing the relevance of the descending channel (marked in red). The trajectory of USD/JPY today could be significantly influenced by the release of the US Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI indices at 16:45 GMT+2. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USD/JPY: Support Break and Potential Continued Decline?Hello all! The USD/JPY pair has broken the 154 support level and is heading toward the next support zone around 150-152. However, this support level doesn’t seem significant, and with U.S. labor market data coming out on Friday, we might see continued downward movement. 📉 Main support level: 149-149.50, where we expect the week to close. We’re keeping an eye on developments and preparing for potential moves within these zones! #USDJPY #Forex #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #Finance
Short
by AUREA_RATIO