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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

Weekly Prediction and Recap from last weekWhat Happened This Week: The USD/JPY pair continued to trade within a bullish structure, reflecting overall dollar strength as expected. Despite facing a significant resistance level around 154.324, the pair did not convincingly break this level, indicating some selling pressure near this zone. The primary driver for the dollar's strength this week was anticipation around U.S. economic data and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with an increasing probability of a rate hike. The market also digested political developments in the U.S. and their potential impact on dollar strength. The Japanese yen weakened further, hitting new three-month lows as economic conditions in Japan remain soft, and the Bank of Japan has shown no significant shift toward tightening monetary policy. On the daily chart, USD/JPY attempted multiple times to break above the 154.324 resistance level but was met with selling pressure, leading to consolidation near this level. The anchored volume resistance at 154.324 continues to act as a strong barrier, signaling that while bulls have momentum, they need more volume to push the price higher. Daily movements were influenced by U.S. dollar sentiment, with periods of volatility around news on U.S. interest rates and economic data. Updated Weekly Analysis for Upcoming Week Bullish Bias: USD/JPY remains in an uptrend on the weekly chart, supported by strong U.S. fundamentals and the prospect of a Fed rate hike. Key Resistance Level: The 154.324 level remains the critical barrier. If the pair closes above this level, it would confirm a breakout, opening the way to targets around 157.383 and 158.313. Consolidation Potential: If USD/JPY fails to break 154.324 again, we could see the pair consolidate between 152–154.324. A failure to break higher may also prompt a pullback toward the 150.000 level, which serves as strong weekly support. Bullish Continuation Scenario: If USD/JPY breaks and closes above 154.324 on the daily chart, it would signal potential continuation to the next resistance zone at 157.383. This breakout would align with the broader weekly uptrend, indicating increased bullish momentum. Bearish/Consolidation Scenario: If the price fails to break above 154.324, expect USD/JPY to potentially pull back toward daily support around 152.000 or lower. This would signal a period of consolidation, especially if the dollar faces any negative news or if U.S. yields stall. Risk Management and Final Thoughts Bullish Breakout Entry: Only consider a buy position if the price decisively closes above 154.324. Both daily and weekly close above this level would indicate stronger conviction among buyers. Patience on Rejection: If USD/JPY fails to close above 154.324, be prepared for possible consolidation or a pullback to lower levels. Avoid entering prematurely if the breakout isn’t clear. Stop-Loss Strategy: Given current volatility, it’s essential to keep SL tight near key support levels to protect against unexpected reversals, especially with major economic events upcoming.
by JasieKK
USDJPY PANIC CYCLEUSDJPY is currently in the last year of the five-year cycle, repeated throughout this market's entire life cycle. The five-year cycle starts with a 4-year bull market and a 1-year panic correction. Should the 161.951 current top hold we would expect price to accumulate around the 151 price zone preparing for a quick decline toward the 125.8 zone for a total price of -360 pts. We expect Price to find support in August 2025. Considering both price and time our expected directional vector for the Five-year cycle will be 1695 units. The directional Price-Time Vector for the Five-year cycles has been in a range from 1659-1716 units. With the bull phase within a range of 1385-1406 units. A fractal nature has been observed in the 1903-1908 DJI market. The 1907 (rich man's) panic. Trade safe
Short
by WU_WEI-CAPITAL
6
USDJPY SHORT TARGET 230 PIPSUSDJPY SHORT TARGET 200 PIPS This week we are looking to short USDJPY from 153.500 to 151.209 which is 230 pip target. Election fever should be calming down in the coming week and expecting to see a correction in the USD in the next few days. Trade is base on a few different conditions, I have marked the fake breakout and also the formation of a head and shoulder pattern on the 4 hour chart. Entry criteria Expecting an initial rise to entry before being rejected as per previous rejection at that level. Break and retest is the safest entry method.
Short
by F0rexBorex
¥155 remains an important hurdle for the dollarCompared to several other major pairs in recent days, dollar-yen’s next direction seems a lot less clear. The Japanese government is likely to monitor the possible impact of Donald Trump’s election on Japan’s economy but, for the moment, it seems to be less negative compared to the EU. Losses since 7 November haven’t been accompanied by very high volume of selling, which would usually suggest profit-taking rather than the start of a new downtrend or sideways trend. There’s also no longer any indication of overbought based on either the slow stochastic or Bollinger Bands. A close above ¥155 could be a reliable signal that the uptrend will continue, but that depends on American inflation on 13 November, news from Japan and overall sentiment. The 50 SMA from Bands is in the process of golden crossing the 100 SMA around the 38.2% weekly Fibonacci retracement, so ¥148.20 is likely to be a strong support in the event of a fairly deep retracement. Equally, the 20 SMA has been an active dynamic support in recent days. A move back to the area of the 50% Fibo, the main technical reference in August-September, seems very unfavourable for now. This is my personal opinion which does not represent the opinion of Exness.
by Michael_Stark_Exness
Will we see intervention and the propping of Yens?We have seen various instances of Japanese Govt intervention and the propping up of a weak Yen. The Yen tends to get to seriously weak points like this as a result of their MP stance (low rates, high exports). The FED rate still sits much higher, as do most major economies. Japan benefits from a weaker currency until it gets too weak. If we see any further rises, we may see such falls as eluded to by Finance Minister Kato earlier today. After the assumption that FED may ease more slowly, USD strength still has a case. Looking for re-shorts on higher fib levels back towards previous highs. Any real price rise (especially if its quick) is likely to warrant further Intervention. Any serious intervention may cause rapid falls on Yen crosses, so a short side bias will be taken but only in proportion to equity/risk at all times. Awaiting further sentiment.
Short
by WillSebastian
USD/ JPY ! 11/8 ! oversold , support , BUY nowUSDJPY trend forecast November 8, 2024 The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to gain traction on Friday, fluctuating with minor gains and losses against the US Dollar (USD) as the European session nears. Support for the JPY comes from recent comments by Japanese authorities, though concerns about the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) capacity for further rate hikes limit its upward momentum. Meanwhile, optimism around Trump’s growth and inflation policies largely overshadows the Fed’s dovish outlook, boosting US Treasury yields, which in turn weighs on the lower-yielding JPY. Additionally, renewed USD buying helps restrict any significant downside for the USD/JPY pair. Trump as president with more strict foreign policies, mainly helps the dollar stronger. This will help USD/xxx currency pairs to increase in value. /// BUY USD/JPY : zone 152.300 - 152.100 SL: 151.700 TP: 40 - 100 - 200 pips (154.100) Safe and profitable trading
Long
by Moon-ForexAcademy
3