USDJPY Poised for a BreakoutUSDJPY Poised for a Breakout
On the 4-hour chart, USDJPY is not yet taking a clear direction. The price is showing the possibility of both movements.
With the current data we can see that USDJPY is forming a triangle pattern and only the breakdown up or down will show the direction of the price.
However, I think the chances are higher for the bullish movement considering that the geopolitical tension in the Middle East is also very high and the USD remains one of the strongest currencies.
Bullish target: 147.90
Bearish target: 140.90
⚠️ Note: If the pattern transforms more than this triangle, then we may be in a different situation and everything may be invalid. The analysis may change over time.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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USDJPY trade ideas
USD/JPY BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
Bearish trend on USD/JPY, defined by the red colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is overbought based on the BB upper band proximity, makes me expect a bearish rebound from the resistance line above and a retest of the local target below at 143.964.
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LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS
USDJPY LONG Market structure bullish on HTFs DH
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection At AOi
Daily Rejection at AOi
Previous Daily Structure point
Daily EMA Retest
Around Psychological Level 145.000
H4 EMA Retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 3.67
Entry 95%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
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LONG - USD/JPYCurrently in the 4H timeframe I can see that the price itself has given me a shift of momentum and this indicates that there could a chance for a possible bullish movement.
Now I have marked my zones base on fibonacci levels and gotten my zones to participate in the market.
Base on the market structure we can see that the price has now shifted its direction coming from a bearish momentum and now is pushing into a bullish momentum. This is where we can try to look for an opportunity to buy within those zones.
Why I am looking for a buy is because the price has already touched our support zone and respected the zone itself. Combining it together with Market Structure there seems to be a much more clearer view of how the market is moving.
Entry Point - 144.341
Stop Loss - 142.387
Take Profit - 148.585
Yen slides on oil supply jitters after US attack on IranThe Japanese yen has started the week with sharp losses. In the European session, USD/JPY has jumped 1.2% on the day and is trading at 147.82. The yen has fallen to five-week lows against the US dollar.
The fallout from the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend is being felt in the currency markets. The Japanese yen, traditionally a safe-haven currency, continues to depreciate, in response to rising oil prices.
Oil prices rose to their highest level since January on Monday after the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran has threatened to close the Straits of Hormuz, a critical trade route through which 20% of the world's oil supply passes through each day. Oil prices have jumped about 10% since the Israel-Iran war started on June 13 and fears of a disruption to oil supply could further boost oil prices.
As oil prices have climbed, the yen has lost ground, declining 3.0% since the Israel-Iran war started. Japan imports almost all of its oil and the rise in oil prices is hurting Japan's trade balance.
Japan's core inflation rate climbed 3.7% y/y in May, up from 3.5% in April. Core CPI has accelerated for a third straight month and hit its highest level since Jan. 2023. This was above the market estimate of 3.6%. Headline inflation ticked lower to 3.5% from 3.6% in April, below the forecast of 3.6%.
The rise in core CPI supports the case for the Bank of Japan to boost interest rates, but the uncertainty over tariffs and the Israel-Iran war will likely mean that the BoJ will stay on the sidelines in the coming months.
There is resistance at 146.91. Next, USD/JPY is testing resistance at 147.61
146.51 and 145.81 are the next support levels
Buy pressure USD/JPYBuyers seeking to continue overall movement to 160 area. From the outside looking in all aspects of final test are being made and have been made at 144 area. This is a good number! Looking even closer, the sellers are selling too fast and are not going to be able to keep up that momentum in comparison to the overall pressure from the bottom. The top has been tested 3 strikes you out. Followed by the long steady ride up with bumps and traps along the way of course. Get your ticket now to get a good seat and watch.
Yen rises sharply, Tokyo Core CPI nextThe Japanese yen has posted strong gains on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.14, down 0.55% on the day. Earlier, USD/JPY fell as low as 143.75, its lowest level since June 13.
Tokyo Core CPI, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends, will be released early Thursday. Tokyo Core CPI hit 3.6% in May, its highest level in over two years. The market estimate for June stands at 3.3%.
The Bank of Japan has signaled that more rate hikes are on the way, provided that inflation continues to move towards the BoJ's level of a sustainable 2%. However, trade talks between the US and Japan have hit a snag, with Japan saying it can't accept US tariffs of 25% on automobiles. The clock is ticking, as US reciprocal tariffs will take effect on July 9 without a deal.
The markets are eyeing a possible rate hike in July, which would be the first rate hike since January. The BoJ meets next on July 31, and if the two sides can reach a trade deal before then, it could cement a rate hike at that meeting. Even if the BoJ maintains rates at the upcoming meeting, investors will be keen to see the new inflation and growth forecasts.
The BOJ's summary of opinions from the June meeting, released Wednesday, didn't provide much insight into the BoJ's rate path. Board members were divided over whether to raise rates in a period of economic uncertainty over the impact of US tariffs on Japan's economy.
There is support at 144.59 and 143.93
145.27 and 145.93 are the next resistance lines
Market next target ⚠️ Disruption & Counterpoints:
1. Premature Breakout Bias:
The chart shows price repeatedly rejecting the resistance zone (highlighted in red).
The arrow assumes a clean breakout without confirmation — this is speculative, as the price hasn’t closed convincingly above the resistance.
This could easily turn into a false breakout or double top if price fails again.
2. Volume Mismatch:
A breakout should be backed by strong bullish volume. However, the current volume is mixed and not showing a clear surge in buyer strength.
Lack of volume confirmation makes the breakout less reliable.
3. Ignoring Recent Rejections:
The red zone was tested multiple times in the last sessions without success. That typically signals strong supply or institutional selling.
Repeating this setup without accounting for historical failure adds downside risk.
4. Missing Bearish Scenario:
No alternate path is considered. A failed breakout could lead to a pullback toward 144.00 or lower, especially with U.S. news events (indicated by the flag).
A balanced analysis should always prepare for both breakout and rejection.
5. Macroeconomic Event Risk:
Similar to the GBP/USD chart, this one also shows an upcoming U.S. economic event. That could heavily move USD/JPY, and technical setups may become invalid fast.
The analysis ignores the need to wait for the news catalyst or confirmation after the release.
Mega long for the year 2027-2030Here is an idea for USDJPY pair. Im looking for a long term long position when price sweeps liquidity and react at the OrderBLock and FVG marked in my analysis. First of all, I expect a market shift in the near term, as i marked it(shift soon). Maybe a short position there wont be bad
Bearish reversal?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 145.80
1st Support: 144.54
1st Resistance: 146.74
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Major resistance ahead?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 145% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection. The price could reverse from this level towards our take profit.
Entry: 145.90
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 145% Fibonacci extension and the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Stop loss: 146.78
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 145% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 144.62
Why we like it:
There is a pullback. support level.
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USD/JPY - Potential TargetDear Friends in Trading,
How I see it,
Key resistance breached.
Strong full body weekly close.
Can bull trend & support hold?
"LONG" Target:
1] 147.700
Keynote:
A 1D candle body close below 145.000 will invalidate this thesis.
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis.
Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese YenThe price test at 144.27 occurred when the RSI indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, but the strong U.S. labor market data offered a high probability of the dollar strengthening against the yen, which I decided to take advantage of. As a result, the pair rose toward the target level of 145.06.
The confident growth in U.S. non-farm employment recorded in May exceeded experts' expectations' causing noticeable fluctuations in currency, markets. The publications of data showing the creation of 139,7000 new jobs versus the forecasted 127,000 instantly strengthened the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on the Japanese yen. The yen's reaction to the news was immediate: the currency weakened significantly against the dollar. Investors perceived the data as a signal of the strength of the U.S. economy and the likely continuation of Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy. Furthermore, the stable unemployment rate in the U.S. recorded at 4.2%, also reinforced the market's optimistic sentiment.
Today's data shows that Japan's GDP for the first quarter was revised upward, which helped the yen recover slightly from Friday's losses against the U.S. dollar. However, despite the positive revision, Japan's economy still faces serious challenges. Weak domestic demand and an aging population continue to pressure growth, while geopolitical uncertainty poses additional obstacles. The Bank of Japan maintains a wait-and-see approach and has no plans to raise interest rates for now, which had previously provided good support to the the yen. Strong growth in bank lending also contributed to increased demand for the yen.
Bearish drop off 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement nds could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 145.06
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 145.45
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 144.40
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.