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USDJPY Continues Consolidation Above Key Support!Dear Friends! USD/JPY is trading sideways around 154.00 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The pair was weighed down by Japanese comments and a softer risk-on tone. However, a fresh rally in the US Dollar limited the pair's losses ahead of the US November Retail Sales report. From a technical point of view, USDJPY remains in an uptrend with the trendline, EMAs and price channel still favoring buyers. In the short term, keep an eye on the upper limit of the channel, which could provide fresh upside momentum for USDJPY. Wishing you happy and profitable trading.
Long
by Trader-Briannnn
My Best analysis The chart shows a technical analysis of USD/JPY on the daily timeframe. The key observations include: 1. Resistance Zone (Grey Box): The price is currently near a strong resistance zone around 156.3, which has previously acted as a barrier. 2. Potential Downtrend: The chart illustrates a bearish scenario with a zigzag decline after breaking the support levels at 154.3, 151.9, and 149.6. 3. Support Zone (Pink Box): The area around 148.0 could act as a strong support zone in the longer term. This analysis suggests a potential sell-off in the coming days if resistance holds. However, market dynamics and fundamentals should also be considered
by LunaTrader_SingnalsProvider
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 18, 2024 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today: 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Rate Decision USDJPY: The Japanese yen (JPY) is experiencing difficulty capitalising on a modest recovery against its US counterpart from the previous day, attracting fresh sellers during Wednesday's Asian session. The latest data from Japan shows an unexpected improvement in the country's trade balance in November, driven by strong export growth. However, the data also points to weak local demand, as indicated by the decline in imports. This, along with an uncertain economic outlook amid concerns over US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans, confirms expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will keep interest rates unchanged later this week, which will have the effect of undermining the yen. Meanwhile, the prospect of a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) decision, as well as expectations that Trump's policies could boost government borrowing and accelerate inflation, continue to support US Treasury yields. This is another factor weighing on the low-yielding JPY, although the softer risk tone helps to limit the potential for further losses. JPY bears may also choose to adopt a more cautious approach and refrain from making any significant bets ahead of a key central bank event. The Federal Reserve will announce its decision at the conclusion of its two-day meeting today, followed by the Bank of Japan's monetary policy update on Thursday. Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 153.500, if it is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if it bounces back we consider Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025 The year 2024 has been a transformative period in the global financial markets, characterised by a mix of challenges and opportunities. Inflation battles, monetary policy shifts, economic uncertainties, and surprising bouts of optimism dominated the landscape. These forces created a volatile yet dynamic environment where some markets flourished while others struggled under significant pressure. From central bank interventions to geopolitical developments and technological advancements, every corner of the financial world experienced notable activity. In this article, we will take a detailed look at the major trends and events shaping the global economy in 2024 and provide insights into what lies ahead in 2025. Inflation and Interest Rates: A Balancing Act In 2024, inflation showed signs of moderation globally. In the United States, it stabilised around 2.7%, marking a notable shift that bolstered market confidence and set a cautiously optimistic tone for the broader economy. Throughout the year, rate cuts dominated monetary policy discussions. Following the unprecedented rate hikes implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, major central banks began scaling back rates. However, they had to walk a tightrope between a complex landscape of lower but still stubborn inflation and resilient labour markets and the necessity for monetary easing. The magnitude and pace of these cuts varied significantly, reflecting differences in economic conditions across regions and creating complex relationships in the forex market. Analysts widely anticipate that policymakers will adopt a more measured approach to easing monetary policy as 2025 unfolds. Most developed market central banks, excluding Japan, are expected to reduce interest rates to neutral levels by the year's end. However, if economic conditions deteriorate more than anticipated, there is potential for central banks to push rates below neutral to support growth. The Fed, in particular, faces a delicate balancing act, as it must carefully navigate potential policy developments—such as trade tariffs—that may not ultimately materialise. At the same time, any resurgence in inflationary pressures could prompt a shift toward a more restrictive rate trajectory in 2025 and beyond, further complicating the policy landscape. Forex Market: A Year of Divergence Currency markets in 2024 were shaped by a combination of monetary policy shifts, economic recovery efforts, and political developments. The US dollar experienced a rollercoaster year, initially depreciating against major currencies as markets anticipated the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it rebounded toward the end of the year, influenced by post-election optimism and expectations of protectionist trade policies under the Trump administration. The British pound demonstrated resilience throughout 2024, supported by the Bank of England’s patient and measured approach to monetary policy. Despite potential rate cuts, the pound maintained its strength, reflecting confidence in the UK’s economic fundamentals. In contrast, the euro faced significant headwinds. The ECB’s aggressive easing measures widened interest rate differentials with the pound and the dollar, weakening the euro. By the end of the year, trade uncertainty stemming from potential US tariffs weighed heavily on the euro, given the Eurozone’s dependence on global trade. The Japanese yen experienced mixed fortunes, bolstered by the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, the highest level since 2008. This move provided much-needed support for the yen, although concerns about potential US trade policies created downside risks. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars saw fluctuations driven by interest rate differentials, global trade dynamics and their respective economies' ties to the United States and China. Analysts caution that President Trump’s tariff policies could intensify the overvaluation of the US dollar in 2025, potentially heightening the risk of global financial instability. The prospect of trade restrictions may add complexity to an already volatile economic landscape. Commodity Markets: Precious Metals Shine, Oil Struggles Commodity markets have seen a resurgence in investor interest. According to data from WisdomTree and Bloomberg, the proportion of investors allocating resources to commodities rose to 79% in 2024, compared to 71% in 2023—an expected rebound after a challenging year for commodities in 2023. Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, emerged as top performers. As of time of the writing on 11th December, gold prices surged by over 30%, while silver outpaced gold with a 35% gain. Several factors drove these impressive performances, including geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election, and strong demand from emerging market central banks. According to analysts, these factors should continue supporting precious metals in 2025. Natural gas prices also experienced significant growth, rising 30% to 50% across major markets in Asia, Europe, and North America. Colder weather forecasts have fueled demand, particularly in Europe and Asia. Analysts suggest that this bullish sentiment in gas markets is likely to persist through the winter, with prices unlikely to see significant declines until well into 2025. However, high gas prices are expected to increase power costs globally, straining fragile economic growth in key regions such as China and Europe while rekindling inflationary concerns. Oil, however, faced a challenging year despite geopolitical crises and production cuts. One of the reasons is a weak demand, particularly from China. In the United States, gasoline inventories exceeded long-term seasonal levels. According to analysts, the growing transition to electric vehicles in developed markets represents a long-term challenge for oil demand. Although some analysts anticipate a recovery in 2025 as OPEC+ production cuts take effect and geopolitical risks persist. Stock Markets: Tech Leads the Charge The US stock market delivered robust performances in 2024, reaching new record highs, with the technology sector at the forefront. Innovations in artificial intelligence (AI) played a pivotal role in driving growth, with major companies such as Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon reporting strong earnings. This momentum boosted broader indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recording gains of 28.57% and 27.4%, respectively, as of 10th December. The broader market also benefited from declining inflation, interest rate cuts, and better-than-expected corporate earnings. These factors may contribute to the stock market growth in 2025. However, stretched valuations temper some of the optimism, and concerns about potential trade tariffs add a layer of uncertainty. Looking Ahead to 2025: Key Market Drivers As we look ahead to 2025, several critical factors are poised to influence the direction of financial markets. Central Bank Policies Central banks will remain pivotal in shaping financial markets in 2025. The balance between maintaining growth and addressing inflationary pressures will be a key theme for central banks throughout the year, influencing the strength of equity markets. Interest rate differentials will play a significant role in determining currency movements. Global Economic Recovery The global economy is expected to continue rebounding from pandemic effects. GDP growth, employment trends, and trade balances will be key factors influencing financial markets. Trade War Uncertainty Potential trade tariffs pose a significant risk. The scope, products, and geographies targeted will determine the impact on global GDP, inflation, and interest rates. Any escalation in trade tensions could disrupt markets and strain economic recovery. Artificial Intelligence and Innovation AI and emerging technologies may drive productivity gains, offering an upside to global growth. By boosting efficiency and reducing costs, AI could also exert disinflationary pressure, influencing economic dynamics in the long term. Geopolitical Tensions Geopolitical risks, including trade disputes and political conflicts, remain unpredictable but could disrupt markets. Final Thoughts: Embracing Opportunities Amid Volatility The year 2024 brought its share of challenges and opportunities, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of global markets. From navigating geopolitical uncertainties and evolving monetary policies to embracing the transformative potential of technologies like artificial intelligence, market participants faced a dynamic landscape. Looking ahead to 2025, the horizon offers new opportunities. Continued advancements in innovation, shifts in economic policies, and the resolution of key global tensions could set the stage for exciting market fluctuations. Use the new year to test your skills and look for new opportunities! This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
USDJPY Is this the end of wave 4?The Elliott Wave Principle suggests a guideline of alternation between corrective waves, particularly between wave 2 and wave 4 of an impulsive wave sequence. This principle helps us identify the nature and behavior of these waves to better understand market structure. These alternations may occur in many forms, for example: Nature of corrections (sharp or shallow), Depth of correction, Structure of correction (flat or triangle, combinations etc) and Time duration of correction (quick or longer corrections). The alternation helps us anticipate the likely form of wave 4 based on wave 2’s behavior to enhance forecasting accuracy. So from these theory of alternation together with the rules around the wave principle, Looking at USDJPY at this level of price we have reached the deepest level of correction wave 4 can go. If the formation is correct, then wave 4 should not go beyond the red line. It made sense to me to take a short at the 50% fib retracement to tighten the SL however it is advisable to wait for confirmations, so saying I do believe there is still a plenty of chance for entry.
Short
by wmasehlele
USDJPY NEOWAVE ANALYSIS (DAILY) Experimental analysis with the intention to follow back later on as I am still learning This pair really excites me. I do not know why, but it has stuck with me, so I thought I’d give this a try even though it should be considered low probability due to me going deep down to the daily. As you can see, once wave F got over, we did get a very good 5-wave rally to complete wave A. Although i have no idea yet what wave A is a part of. After the biggest daily drop since wave 2, we got some downwards movement which indicated that the rally up is over. Now using logic and good reasoning when I think about this, it’s not possible for the downside movement to end so quickly after almost 2 months of upwards movement. Hence, I will take it to believe that the correction is still ongoing and the rally we are seeing right now is a strong B wave rally of a possible flat. I do not know where wave B will end, although since I do consider it to be strong, I will expect it to completely retrace wave A. Once we know where wave B finishes, then only I could understand whether the C wave will completely retrace the B wave. Any prior sell off before retracing wave A would mean that we're looking at a triangle correction
by thekidtrader11
USD/JPY 4H Timeframe AnalysisUSD/JPY 4H Timeframe Analysis Trend Analysis: In the 4-hour timeframe, the USD/JPY pair is currently in an uptrend, having gained momentum from a major support level at 149.000. The price has successfully broken through our major key resistance at 151.500 and has continued to surpass two minor key resistance levels between 153.00 and 153.800. During this period, we observed the formation of an inverted hammer candlestick above our minor key resistance, which has now become a minor key support level. This was followed by two doji candlesticks, indicating potential price reversal and market indecision. Currently, we see price action accumulating buy orders in this area, suggesting that buyers are positioning themselves for a potential upward move. Price Action Expectation: Our objective is to wait for a manipulation or liquidity grab within the liquidity zone. Once the price bounces back and breaks through our minor key resistance, we will look to place a buy stop order. Trade Setup: Trade Type: Buy Stop Entry Price: 153.960 (just above the minor key resistance after a breakout) Stop Loss: Below the liquidity zone Take Profit: Below the major key resistance Conclusion: The USD/JPY pair is currently exhibiting bullish momentum, supported by both technical indicators and a favorable fundamental outlook. Key economic indicators from the US, such as PMI, retail sales, and the Federal Funds rate, will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and influencing the USD's strength against the JPY. Traders should remain vigilant for potential breakouts and ensure proper risk management strategies are in place. Fundamental Outlook (USD/JPY) US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI (Monday): Healthy profit-taking may occur; strong PMI could support USD. US Retail Sales (Tuesday): Positive retail sales data may boost consumer confidence and strengthen the USD. Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement (Wednesday): Anticipated rate decisions could lead to a resumption of upward momentum for the USD. US GDP and Unemployment Claims (Thursday): Strong GDP growth and low unemployment claims would further support the USD. Core PCE Price Index (Friday): Rising inflation could prompt expectations of interest rate hikes, bolstering the USD. Overall, while profit-taking may occur early in the week, a resumption of bullish sentiment for USD/JPY is likely as key economic data is released.
Long
by RebornFXTrader