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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY Fibo Support Test NearbyUSD/JPY continues to brew traps on both sides of the pair as last week's push up to fresh three-month highs has been followed by a decisive snap back in the pair. The drive behind the move is also of interest, as Japanese election results over the weekend haven't been completely digested by Japanese markets, as they were closed on Monday for a public holiday. So the next 24 hours will be key for seeing the way that this theme gets priced-in. In USD/JPY, there's a support level nearby in the form of the 61.8% retracement of the September-January move. Notably, this was the price that caught the low last Wednesday after the Trump-fueled sell-off took over in the USD, just after the threat to fire Jerome Powell. Fears of a more dovish Fed make sense for USD-weakness as that could pressure further unwind of the carry trade. But with the LDP losing a majority in the upper chamber, it seems that greater political vulnerability would make for a more difficult road for the Bank of Japan to hike rates. Nonetheless, the response to support is what matters here, and there's quite a bit of structure lurking below the Fibonacci level, with 146.54 and 145.93 both of note, and that's before the 145.00 level comes back into play. - js
by FOREXcom
USDJPY Hits Rising Channel Ceiling: Will Bears Take Control?Hey Traders, USDJPY has just tapped the top of its ascending channel around the 148.70 resistance- an area that has historically triggered bearish reactions. With signs of rejection and waning bullish momentum, we’re now at a potential inflection point for short-term downside retracement. Current Market Conditions: Price has reached and slightly wicked above the upper boundary of a rising channel. Strong resistance zone between 148.70 – 148.79 aligns with prior swing highs. Early signs of bearish rejection can be seen on the latest candle close. Short-term structure suggests the potential for a pullback toward 147.48 or lower if sellers gain traction. Fundamental Analysis/Outlook: Recent USD strength has been driven by sticky U.S. inflation and hawkish Fed commentary, but JPY fundamentals are catching attention. BoJ is under pressure to shift policy due to rising wage growth and inflation spillover effects. If upcoming Japanese data supports tightening or USD weakens on risk-off sentiment, we could see a meaningful retracement in USDJPY. Targets: TP1: 147.486 TP2: 146.120 TP3: 144.841 Risk Management: Stop-loss: Above 148.80 (channel breakout confirmation) Maintain a minimum 1:2 R:R. Trail stops if structure breaks lower (e.g., loss of 147.48 support). Technical Outlook: USDJPY has respected the channel boundaries since May. Unless price breaks and closes above 148.79 with strong volume and momentum, the more likely scenario is a pullback. Watch for a bearish engulfing or lower-timeframe double top confirmation to trigger entries. Conclusion: We’re seeing a potential top at a well-respected channel ceiling. Unless bulls break and hold above 148.79, USDJPY could be set for a healthy retracement. Keep an eye on U.S. dollar strength and BoJ policy chatter in the coming days. Sign-off: “In markets, clarity often lies just beyond the fear. Trade the levels, not the noise.” 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments, give this idea a boost, and follow for more actionable setups. Stay sharp out there!
Short
by SignalSage_Ben
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 147.07 1st Support: 145.89 1st Resistance: 149.04 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USD/JPY: The 150.00 Rejection SignalThe chart for USD/JPY looks like a simple one-way street going up. But underneath the surface, my quantitative models are in a state of conflict, and that's a high-clarity signal that something is about to change. This isn't a signal to short right now. This is a signal to be patient and watch for a very specific setup that the "smart money" models are anticipating. The Quant Conflict 🤖 My analysis involves several different mathematical models. Here's the situation: One model, which is great at tracking trends, is still signaling BUY , following the obvious upward momentum. However, two other, more complex models that analyze the relationships between economic data are now flashing a SELL signal. They are detecting underlying weakness that the price chart isn't showing yet. When the simple trend model and the complex structural models disagree, it often means a major turning point is near. We are siding with the smarter models, but we need price action to confirm their warning. The Game Plan 📊 We will use the 150.00 level as our "line in the sand." We are waiting for the market to fail at this level and then break down, which would confirm the bearish quant signal. This is our high-probability entry trigger. Here is the exact setup we are waiting for: 📉 THE SETUP: A patient short position, waiting for confirmation of a breakdown. 👉 ENTRY: We enter only on a confirmed daily close below 148.00. ⛔️ STOP LOSS: Place the stop just above the psychological wall at 150.25. 🎯 TAKE PROFIT: Our primary target is the major support level at 145.00. This is a setup where patience pays. We are letting the market do the hard work and show its hand before we commit. Let's watch this one closely.
Short
by MaxellAguiran
USDJPY / U.S. Dollar – Japanese Yen (1D + 1H) – Multi-Timeframe USDJPY / U.S. Dollar – Japanese Yen (1D + 1H) – Multi-Timeframe Breakdown Hello awesome traders! 👋 Closing the week with a full top-down look at USDJPY. We’ve got a macro bullish setup developing, but Friday gave us a well-structured intraday bearish opportunity worth studying. Let’s walk through the levels across the timeframes: 🧭 Macro Structure (Daily / 4H) We start with a textbook Cypher formation on the macro frame, overlapping with a broad ABC bullish correction: 🔹 XA and BC legs are clean and proportionate 🔹 The D point completes just above the 78.6% XA zone 🔹 ABC structure suggests price may be completing a corrective leg within the larger bullish swing 🔍 Medium-Term Focus (4H): Zoom Into the ABC As we zoom into the ABC leg: 🔸 A = 146.82 🔸 B = 149.08 🔸 C forms near 148.20 with shallow retracement 🔸 Completion shows signs of exhaustion The ABC pullback aligns with prior resistance and fib confluence zones. ⏱ Intraday Breakdown (1H): Symmetry, Traps, and False Breakouts This is where the intraday bearish case built up: 🔻 1. Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown Price formed a clear compression triangle → broke lower → retested → failed again. 🔻 2. Double Top Structure + Cypher Trap We had a false breakout above 149.08, followed by a rejection. This matches the Cypher reversal zone and classic trap behavior. 🎯 Friday Outlook ✅ Bias: Bearish 📍 Target 1: 38.2% = 148.21 📍 Target 2: 61.8–78.6% = 147.67 – 147.29 We're looking for price to rotate back into these fib support zones before macro structure takes back control. No bullish commitment unless we reclaim the 149.08 highs with strength. 🛡 Risk Management Note This is short-term momentum inside a larger bullish frame. Treat intraday shorts with tight stops. Macro buyers may step in at the fib wall. 🗝 Final Thoughts This is the perfect example of why multi-timeframe context matters. Macro is prepping for a possible long-term continuation, but Friday’s lower timeframe offered an opportunistic short from structure, symmetry, and failed breakout traps. “The market breathes in waves — one time frame exhales while the other prepares to inhale.”
by TradeChartPatternsLikeThePros
USD/JPY: Battle at Resistance - Bull Run or Rejection?Alright Traders, Here's my breakdown of USD/JPY's next moves: The price has been repeatedly testing a strong resistance zone (those areas I've highlighted). It's really trying to push through, but this resistance is holding firm. Here's the game plan: If price successfully breaks above this resistance, we could see a strong bull run. My target for this move would be the 150 - 151 JPY zone (that yellow highlighted area). However, if price gets rejected from this resistance again, going short could be a good idea. We might see it drop to test the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level, or even further down to the 50% Fibonacci level. I've put this analysis together using Fibonacci retracements, moving averages, trend lines, and price action. Patience is key here. We need to wait for clear confirmation: either the resistance breaks, or price gets rejected and breaks the trendline support for a short entry. Trade smart!
by Sully-X
USD-JPY Will Keep Growing! Buy! Hello,Traders! USD-JPY is trading in an Uptrend along the rising Support line and the pair Already made a bullish Rebound and is consolidating In a local range so as we Are bullish biased we will Be expecting a further Bullish move up Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TopTradingSignals
1
USDJPY M SIBI SELL SHORTUSDJPY M SIBI SELL SHORT - Market in Monthly TF market is bearish - Market in weekly TF is bullesh - Market in Daily TF fully bullesh - IN Monthly SIBI when market is present on our AOI then shift to LTF find a Valid Market Structurer Shift with Valid OBI / LTF SIBI / BPR , - when market is in our OBI / LTF SIBI / BPR after Liquidity Swap then Entry in our AOI with proper Tight SL with Open Target for a big Movement Catch . Partly Profit book our nearest HTF Liquidity ..... ********************Enjoyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy KGB Priyabrat Behera ICT Trader & Advance Mapping SMC Trader
Short
by kgb_priyabrat_behera
Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci support?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 147.11 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 146.50 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 149.04 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
USD/JPY Drops as Market Awaits Powell's RemarksIn today’s trading session, the USD/JPY pair is showing renewed weakness, currently trading around 147.76 — down more than 0.68% from the previous session. The decline is driven by falling U.S. Treasury yields and cautious investor sentiment ahead of an upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which is weighing on the U.S. dollar. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has broken its short-term uptrend and is approaching a key support level at 147.60. If this level fails to hold, the bearish momentum could extend further.
Short
by Kevinn_Nguyen
$USDJPY looking primed for another leg up.FX:USDJPY looking primed for another leg up. The weekly chart shows a textbook Stage 2 uptrend, holding strong above the 200 EMA. After a healthy pullback, the price is now testing a key pivot level around 147.60, which aligns with a major support zone. On the 4-hour chart, the Stochastic oscillator is approaching oversold territory, suggesting the recent selling pressure may be exhausted. A bounce from this support could be the catalyst for a move back to the 155-160 resistance area. #USDJPY #Forex #FX #Trading #Bullish
Long
by ImmaculateTony
USDJPY H1 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H1 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 148.61, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fib retracement. Our take profit is set at 147.57, an overlap support. The stop loss is set at 149.18 a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
USD/JPY: 148.70 cleared as yields and momentum alignAided by the latest leg higher for U.S. Treasury yields following the June U.S. inflation report, USD/JPY closed at the highest level since April on Tuesday, taking out the important 148.70 level in the process. If the pair manages to consolidate the break on Wednesday ahead of separate U.S. PPI data for June, the level may revert to offering support, providing a platform for new long positions to be established with a stop below for protection. The 200-day moving average is the first major hurdle for bulls to overcome, sitting today at 149.63. If it were to be taken out, it would only add to the bullish price action seen recently. Above, 150 will naturally receive some attention given it’s a major big figure, although there’s little visible resistance until 151.00. If USD/JPY were to reverse back below 148.70 and close there, it would provide bulls with some food for thought, opening the door for a potential retest of the uptrend the pair has been sitting in since the start of July. However, the message from momentum indicators like RSI (14) and MACD is firmly bullish. With the 50-day moving average also starting to curl higher, near-term price momentum is definitely with the bulls, favouring buying dips in this environment.
Long
by FOREXcom
Japan's coalition loses majority, yen higherThe Japanese yen has started the week with strong gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.71, down 0.73% on the day. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba's ruling coalition failed to win a majority in the election for the upper house of parliament on Sunday. The result is a humiliating blow to Ishiba, as the government lost its majority in the lower house in October. The stinging defeat could be the end of the road for Ishiba. The Prime Minister has declared he will remain in office, but there is bound to be pressure from within the coalition for Ishiba to resign. The election result was not a surprise, as voters were expected to punish the government at the ballot box due to the high cost of food and falling incomes. The price of rice, a staple food, has soared 100% in a year, causing a full-blown crisis for the government, which has resorted to selling stockpiled rice from national reserves to the public. The election has greatly weakened Ishiba's standing, which is bad news as Japan is locked in intense trade talks with the US. President Trump has warned that he will impose 25% tariffs on Japanese goods if a deal isn't reached by August 1. Japan is particularly concerned about its automobile industry, the driver of its export-reliant economy. The Bank of Japan meets on July 31 and is widely expected to continue its wait-and-see stance on rate policy. The BoJ has been an outlier among major central banks as it looks to normalize policy and raise interest rates. However, with the economic turbulence and uncertainty due to President Trump's erratic tariff policy, the Bank has stayed on the sidelines and hasn't raised rates since January. Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI on Friday, the last tier-1 event before the rate meeting.
by OANDA
USDJPY Possible long for 149.60#usdjpy started rally from the start of the month of July. Price consolidate in range between 142.85-10. Then started rally. price again consolidate in range between 147.15-145.76 area. Market build energy and institutional add further longs and broke above the daily resistance line 148.60. Need to sell off / retracement to test demand zone range 146.37-145.78 area to test and filled remaining institutional orders for long. Buying area 146.37-145.76. stop loss: 145.60. Target: 149.60
Long
by PyramidFx