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USDJPY trade ideas

USD / JPYKey Characteristics of USD/JPY: Volatility: USD/JPY often shows moderate to low volatility relative to some other major pairs, although it can experience significant movement in response to economic data and policy changes. Economic Influences: The pair is highly sensitive to economic indicators from both the U.S. and Japan, including interest rate decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), inflation rates, GDP, and trade balances. Interest Rate Differential: A key driver of USD/JPY is the interest rate differential between the two countries. The U.S. has maintained relatively high interest rates recently, while Japan has had ultra-low or negative rates, which often leads to a stronger dollar against the yen. Global Sentiment and Safe-Haven Demand: The yen is often considered a "safe-haven" currency, meaning that during times of global risk or uncertainty, the yen may strengthen as investors seek safer assets. Conversely, during periods of risk-taking, the dollar typically strengthens relative to the yen.
by ChartsWithAI
USDJPY-bias short bearish indications: Fib level 0.618 respected in day time frame. Bearish divergence. Trend line support broken in 4 hr timed frame. Moving average respected with the red candle indicates bearish movement. Head and shoulder pattern in 4 hrs. look for proper head and shoulder pattern to short in this pair. Head and shoulder pattern in 15 min time frame Bullish indications: Resistance broken and forming as support in day time frame. Bullish divergence in 4 hr time frame but not major. Possible temporary movement of long before it falls Trade plan bias short @ 152 SL:152.600 TP1:151.71 TP2:150.787
Short
by gouthamkulal1
1
USDJPY Slightly Bearish Bias Today: Key Fundamental Drivers !Introduction Today, USDJPY exhibits a slight bearish bias amid shifting fundamental factors and evolving market conditions. The yen’s appeal as a safe-haven currency and recent developments in the US economy are shaping USDJPY’s direction. In this article, we’ll analyze the main drivers that contribute to this bearish outlook for USDJPY and highlight what traders should watch in today’s forex market. --- Key Drivers of the Bearish Bias in USDJPY 1. Weakening US Dollar on Mixed Economic Data The US dollar has recently shown signs of softening, driven by mixed economic reports. Data from the past week, including non-farm payrolls and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, indicated a slowdown in US economic activity. This uncertainty around US growth is weakening the dollar’s position against safe-haven currencies like the yen. A weaker USD generally supports a bearish outlook for USDJPY as traders adjust their positions based on changing expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy direction. 2. Dovish Signals from the Federal Reserve Recent signals from the Federal Reserve suggest that it may be nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, with a possible pivot in sight for 2025. The Fed’s cautious stance has dampened expectations for further rate increases, which reduces demand for the USD. This dovish shift makes the dollar less attractive, especially when paired against the yen, a currency that typically benefits from safe-haven demand. The reduced rate differential between the US and Japan lends further support to a bearish USDJPY outlook. 3. Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Adjustments The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has recently hinted at making adjustments to its ultra-loose monetary policy, indicating a slow but potential shift toward normalization. Although the BOJ has maintained a dovish stance overall, any sign of policy tightening is significant for USDJPY. Market participants are speculating on a gradual shift, which could increase the yen’s appeal relative to the dollar, contributing to the current bearish bias for USDJPY. 4. Global Risk Sentiment and Safe-Haven Demand for Yen The yen’s safe-haven status provides it with support in times of risk aversion, and today’s market sentiment reflects a cautious tone. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty in other major markets are heightening safe-haven demand. As investors seek safety, the yen becomes more attractive, leading to bearish pressure on USDJPY as funds flow into Japan’s currency. 5. US-Japan Yield Spread Narrowing One important factor influencing USDJPY is the yield differential between US Treasuries and Japanese government bonds (JGBs). Recently, the gap has begun to narrow, as US Treasury yields decline amid expectations of a more dovish Fed, while Japanese yields remain steady or inch slightly higher. A narrower yield spread weakens the case for holding USD over JPY, adding weight to a bearish USDJPY outlook. --- Technical Analysis of USDJPY Technically, USDJPY appears to be trading near resistance levels, suggesting potential for a pullback. The pair’s price action is testing support around the 148.50 mark, a critical level that could dictate near-term momentum. Should bearish sentiment intensify, traders could look for downside targets near 148.00 or lower. Conversely, any break above resistance near 149.50 could challenge the bearish bias, although today’s fundamentals lean towards a slightly bearish trend. --- Conclusion In summary, today’s bearish bias in USDJPY is driven by a combination of US dollar weakness, potential adjustments from the BOJ, safe-haven demand for the yen, and a narrowing yield differential. As these factors continue to play out, USDJPY may face further downside pressure unless there is a significant shift in either US or Japanese economic policy. Traders should keep a close watch on upcoming US data releases and any new BOJ policy commentary, as these events could shape the pair’s movement in the near term. --- SEO Tags: #USDJPYAnalysis #USDJPYForecast #USDJPYToday #USDJPYFundamentalAnalysis #USDollarYenOutlook #BankofJapanPolicy #ForexMarketUpdate #TradingUSDJPY #USDJPYBearishBias
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USD/JPY Reversal from Premium Zone with Inefficiency FillAnalysis Summary Premium Zone and Strong High: The premium zone, marked between 153.100 and 153.300, highlights an area where selling pressure could intensify. The strong high at 153.100 reinforces this resistance level, suggesting it may act as a turning point if tested. Inefficiency (Fair Value Gap): The inefficiency (or FVG) zone at around 152.700–152.900 may act as a magnet for price to fill this imbalance. This zone could be targeted before a potential reversal from the premium area. Break of Structure (BOS) and Discount Zone: A previous BOS to the downside suggests bearish momentum. The discount zone around 151.500–151.700 below the current price could act as a support level if the price reverses from the premium zone and resumes a bearish trend. Weak Low: The weak low near 151.700 may serve as a target if the price resumes its downtrend, confirming a bearish continuation. Potential Scenarios: Bearish Reversal from Premium Zone: If the price moves up to test the premium zone around 153.100–153.300 and encounters resistance, a bearish reversal is likely. This could result in a move down to fill the inefficiency around 152.700 and potentially target the weak low at 151.700. Continued Bullish Momentum: If buyers push through the premium zone and the strong high at 153.100, this could invalidate the bearish outlook and suggest a continuation to higher levels. Conclusion USD/JPY is approaching a premium zone where a bearish reversal could unfold, targeting the inefficiency at 152.700 and the weak low at 151.700. Traders should watch for rejection signals near 153.100–153.300 to confirm a potential bearish setup.
Short
by SwiftSignalFX
1
USD/JPY on the Rise: Aiming for 154 and Beyond if 151 HoldsHere’s the lowdown: USD/JPY is hanging out at the 151 support level. If this zone holds, we’re looking at a nice ride up to 152.47—and possibly higher! First take-profit at 154.23, and if we break that, we’re cruising to 155.80 and even 157. Simple Breakdown: Solid Support at 151 Right now, 151 is the key spot to watch. If we hold above this, it’s a good sign USD/JPY has the strength to keep climbing. Target Levels on the Way Up First Stop: 152.47 This is our first target, so keep an eye on the price action here to see if we’ve got the momentum. Take-Profit Zone 1: 154.23 If we reach this level, it’s a great spot to lock in some gains. Think of it as the first surf break! Take-Profit Zone 2: 155.80 If 154 clears, next stop is 155.80. This is where the ride gets exciting. High-End Target: 157 If USD/JPY stays strong and keeps moving, 157 is the ultimate stretch goal on this wave. Trading Tip Stay flexible with your levels. If 151 holds, ride the trend and take profits at each level to keep it smooth. Relax, set your zones, and let the market show you the way! MINDBLOOME TRADING / KRIS Where Trading Meets Wellness : Mindbloome Exchange
Long
by Mindbloome-Trading
USDJPY_108 2024.11.05 03:53:06 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for USDJPY_108 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 152.285 SL: 152.404 Entry Price: 152.37 Analysis for USDJPY Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Probably Down LT= Probably Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Up LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here are my expectations for the USD/JPY pair: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is expected to test the support level near 150.25 before potentially rebounding and continuing its growth. * A breakout above the resistance area and closing above 154.45 would confirm this growth. * Given the soft nonfarm payrolls report expected, the pair might experience some volatility, but the overall trend suggests a rebound and continuation of growth. **Expected price movement:** Up **Long-term (next few weeks to a month):** * The pair has reclaimed the 151.00-152.00 region, which could act as new support, and could target levels such as 155.60 and even 160.00 in the coming weeks. * The US Dollar Index (DXY) breaking above its 104.50 resistance level could further support the pair's growth. * Political instability in Japan and a strong US economy are expected to continue contributing to the yen's weakness. **Expected price movement:** Up **Note:** The Elliott Wave analysis suggests potential continued growth, but it's essential to consider the broader market context and other technical indicators for a comprehensive view. Overall, both short-term and long-term analyses suggest that the USD/JPY pair is expected to go up, with some potential volatility in the short-term due to the soft nonfarm payrolls report. Result: ST=Up LT=Up Analysis Method(1) **Short-term Analysis (next few days/week):** Based on the technical analysis, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a pause in its recent up move due to the overstretched condition of the JPY implied volatility index. The pair is currently under pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and a break below 143.60 intermediate support could trigger renewed weakness. However, a clearance above 149.30 could extend the rebound. Given these conditions, the short-term outlook is **neutral to slightly bearish**, with a potential downside move to 143.60 or lower if the support is broken. **Long-term Analysis (rest of 2024 and beyond):** The long-term forecast suggests that the USD/JPY pair will trade within a range of ¥138 to ¥150 in 2024. Analysts predict a modest strengthening of the US Dollar against the yen until the end of the year, with the pair expected to close at ¥145.555 in December. However, the long-term analysis also suggests that bears are dominating the market, with the price moving at the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands. This indicates a potential **downside bias** in the long term, with the pair potentially declining to ¥140 or lower by the end of the year. Overall, the USD/JPY pair is expected to experience a short-term pause or potential downside move, followed by a long-term decline to ¥140 or lower by the end of 2024. Result: ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the USD/JPY pair's expected price movement in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days to a week):** * The pair is currently experiencing selling pressure near the psychological resistance of 150.00, and the prospect of market volatility ahead of the US presidential election is acting as a headwind for the yen carry trade, benefiting the Japanese Yen. * The technical analysis suggests that the pair may test the support level near 150.25, with potential for an upward rebound. * However, the VIX index is above 20, indicating increased volatility, which could lead to a breakout below 148.45, indicating a continuation of the decline. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go down** in the short-term, potentially testing the support level near 150.25 or even breaking below 148.45. **Long-term (next few weeks to months):** * The fundamental factors suggest that the US Dollar's outlook is firm despite current pressures, with traders pricing out larger-than-usual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. * The potential for a bullish reclaim of the 151.00-152.00 region could lead to targets of 155.60 and even 160.00 if the US Dollar strengthens across the board. * The Bank of Japan's potential ending of its negative interest rate policy could support the Yen, but this is not expected to have a significant impact in the long-term. * Given these factors, I expect the price to **go up** in the long-term, potentially breaking above 154.45 and reaching targets of 155.60 and 160.00. Please note that these predictions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Short
by orbborisson
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 5, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is experiencing a decline against its US counterpart during Tuesday's Asian session, moving away from the one-week high reached the previous day. Nonetheless, the probability of a Japanese Yen decline is constrained as market participants may exercise caution in making aggressive directional bets due to the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election. Furthermore, expectations of an interest rate increase at the forthcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting in December may also provide support for the yen. Meanwhile, the unwinding of the Trump trade, as well as expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates later this week, is driving US Treasury yields further lower, resulting in a narrowing rate differential between the US and Japan. This maintains a defensive position for those betting on the US dollar and should serve as a tailwind for the yen. Furthermore, a decline in market risk may favour the JPY and help contain a significant rise in the USD/JPY pair. Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/JPY May Experience Slight DeclineIn Tuesday's Asian trading session, the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened against the US Dollar (USD), moving away from the one-week high reached the previous day. However, the decline in JPY may be limited as traders remain cautious amid the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election, coupled with expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates in December. At the same time, the ongoing "Trump deal" and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates later this week have led to a decline in US Treasury yields, narrowing the interest rate differential between the US and Japan. This weakens the demand for USD, providing support for JPY. Additionally, a weaker risk sentiment could favor the Yen and limit significant upside moves in the USD/JPY pair. With resistance at 152.337, the USD/JPY pair may struggle to maintain strong upward momentum. If the price fails to break above this level, the likelihood of a downward correction increases, with the nearest support levels at 151.500 and 151.000. However, if the Yen continues to face pressure from macroeconomic factors such as US election uncertainty or expectations surrounding the BoJ’s monetary policy, the USD/JPY pair may still test the 152.337 resistance again.
by Alisa_Rokosz
USDJPY InsightHello, subscribers! Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to boost and subscribe! Key Points - October 31: The Bank of Japan decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Governor Ueda mentioned that real interest rates are currently very low and added that they will raise policy rates as economic and price outlooks improve. - Iowa Polls: Following news that Harris is leading within the margin of error in Iowa, where Trump had a lead, we’re seeing a reversal in the "Trump trade." - November FOMC: The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a 25 basis point rate cut in this month’s FOMC meeting. - OPEC: OPEC and OPEC+ have postponed their production increase plans once again. Key Economic Indicators - November 5: U.S. Presidential Election, Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision - November 7: Bank of England rate decision - November 8: FOMC meeting results announcement USD/JPY Chart Analysis Although the Bank of Japan kept rates steady, hawkish remarks were made during the subsequent press conference, contributing to dollar weakness and yen strength, along with the "Trump trade" reversal. Currently, the price is forming around the 152 line. There’s a possibility of a further pullback to the 149.500 line; however, in the broader perspective, the likelihood of a rise to the 158 line is stronger. With the FOMC meeting and U.S. election this week, major factors will be in play. If the market direction shifts, I’ll swiftly adjust strategies.
Long
by shawntime_academy
Dollar hit early on US election volatility | FX ResearchMomentum has swung back towards Harris over the weekend and this is having a clear impact on the dollar-bullish Trump trade. The US dollar has sold off quite aggressively across the board though we haven't seen much impact in the world of equities where us equity futures are trading up ahead of the US open on Friday. The US jobs report gave off some mixed signals with payrolls coming in well below forecasts but the hourly earnings coming in hot on net, the expectation remains for two more rate cuts at the fed between now and year end elsewhere. Oil prices are on the rise after OPEC agreed to push back its December production increase by one month and Iran's supreme leader warned enemies will receive a crushing response on the data front. Eurozone and German manufacturing PM I reads were solid while Centex investor confidence improved. Looking ahead, we get us factory orders and some ECB speak. Otherwise, the yen has been a little better bid today, perhaps after the BOJ signaled it would be prepared to hike rates more if its outlook was met. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY 151.950 -0.64% LONG IDEA INTRADAY SET-UPHELLO TRADERS Hope everyone is doing great 📌 A look at USDJPY from MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS USDJPY 4H TF * Mon. opens strongly bullish with the 7am SAT pushing up but wicking out. * Trading out of a sweep on an long term high. * 4H vi above looking good for targets. * looking for long entries in correlation with the DXY * looking for PO3 rules towards the Downside to continue HIGHER. * The weekly & daily TF show we are still showing signs of a BULLISH move still. * Looking for continuation of this move. * We saw a rally with the bears, strong momentum to the downside. * Looking at the 1H FVG, this is where I would look for long entries this week. * Should this PD ARRAY hold will be LONG for the GJ intraday. * BASED on the price action served. HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK. SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
Long
by PULEMokhothu
6
USDJPY Possible ScenariosWe can expect a correction in USDJPY down to the demand zone shown on the chart, which should prepare it for the main movement. However, this main bullish movement is actually a retracement in the bigger picture, so we should be ready to monitor closely when it reaches the supply zone. Please note that this analysis is not intended as financial advice. Each individual should assume responsibility for their own trades. The purpose of this post is to provide ideas and inspiration, encouraging readers to view the chart from different perspectives. Always conduct your own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.
by Biaxar
USDJPY Will Go Down From Resistance! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for USDJPY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 151.684. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 147.149. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1