short!We've got a breakout to the downside.
Maybe we get a push up to get a better posititon to go short
USDJPY trade ideas
Talk of month end US Dollar selling | FX ResearchWe're seeing more "sell the fact" action on the Trump trade and hearing a lot of talk about month-end dollar outflows.
This seems to be factoring into price action today, with the dollar down across the board.
Dollar weakness has been especially prominent against the yen, where speculation of a December BOJ rate hike is ramping up. The euro has also gained relative strength, supported by more hawkish comments from ECB's Schnabel.
Earlier today, the RBNZ announced its well-telegraphed 50 basis point rate cut.
Looking ahead, a lot of U.S. economic data is set to be released today, as it will all be packed in before U.S. market participants leave their desks for the Thanksgiving holiday break.
Key standouts include initial jobless claims, durable goods, GDP, personal income and spending, core PCE, Chicago PMI, and pending home sales.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
Supercycle or Collapse? Here's What's Next for USD/JPYTrading Idea Breakdown for USD/JPY (12M Timeframe)
Key Structure Levels:
Current Price Zone: 147.67
Major Resistance Levels:
358.44 (Wave 5 Target/Range High): This represents the completion of the supercycle.
179.22 (12M Resistance Line): Significant midpoint equilibrium.
161.99 (Discount Zone - Wave 3-4 Pullback): Zone to watch for price re-accumulation.
Major Support Levels:
79.76-75.56 (Premium Support Zone): Base level for potential bullish accumulation if deeper pullback occurs.
118.75 (Equilibrium): Midpoint structure acting as current support.
0.00 (Cycle Bottom): Historical demand zone.
Key Elements of Wyckoff Analysis:
Phase Accumulation (1970-2012):
SC (Selling Climax) and AR (Automatic Rally) confirmed the range low (80.00 zone).
ST (Secondary Test) in Phase B showed consolidation preparing for markup.
Current Context - Re-Accumulation Range (2022-Present):
LPS (Last Point of Support) around 118.75 signals continued bullishness, aligning with Phase B support.
Wyckoff logic suggests price could aim for Phase D breakout and extend toward 358.44.
Elliott Wave Perspective:
Wave 1: Strong impulse ending near 120.00.
Wave 2: Corrective move down to 75.56, testing accumulation.
Wave 3: Extended impulse projected toward 301.03 (1.61 Fibonacci extension of Wave 1).
Wave 4: Potential pullback to 161.99, aligning with equilibrium.
Wave 5: Final target near 358.44, completing the supercycle.
Trading Plan:
Entry Strategy:
Look for pullback entries near 161.99 (Discount zone) or 118.75 (Equilibrium zone) if further corrective movements occur.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 179.22 (Range equilibrium midpoint of resistance).
TP2: 301.03 (Wave 3 Fibonacci target zone).
TP3: 358.44 (Wave 5 cycle completion target).
Stop-Loss Placement:
SL1: Below 118.75 (Equilibrium) if targeting mid-term bullish continuation.
SL2: Below 75.56 for aggressive buyers targeting the supercycle.
Potential Bias and Commentary:
Bullish Scenario: Momentum remains strong; the re-accumulation range suggests further upside potential aligning with Wyckoff's markup phase.
Bearish Risk: If price breaks below 118.75, a re-test of the premium zone (75.56) might occur before resuming long-term bullish trends.
27-11 USDJPY27-11 USDJPY after today's figures the Dollar seems to have reached the highs. we have initiated and executed a sell series at 151.275. Based on our signal system which gives a bearish score of -4 composed of: Cot Data -2, Retail sentiment 0, Seasonality 1, Trend reading -2, GDP 0, Manufacturing PMI 0, Services PMI 0, Retail Sales 2, Inflation -1, Employment Change 0, Unemployment Rate -1,
Interest Rates -1.
USD/JPYTo me it could fall from this price to 136.36and then, after a correction, fall back to its second support line.
Usdjpy D_TF Usdjpy D_TF
Congrats to those that took it
That's 360pips
That's huge
You can still find your entry
About 1,130 pips more to go
If you been following my analysis
I've been analyzing this for about 2 weeks ago
USD/JPY Daily Chart Analysis - Key Fibonacci Levels & Bearish BrThis analysis of the USD/JPY daily chart focuses on recent price action and Fibonacci retracement levels. The pair shows a clear bearish breakdown from the ascending channel, with the price currently testing the key 150.965 level. Support zones near 148.000 are critical, while resistance around 166.148 could act as a long-term target if bullish momentum resumes. The chart includes key Fibonacci levels and trendlines to watch for further price movement.
YEN CARRY TRADE ABC RALLY ENDED LOOK FOR 136 /129The chart posted is the yen carry trade We bottomed into my target 138 and then rallied just past my orginal abc target of 155.10 I now feel the the SH!T Is going to HIT THE FAN in ASSETS . Best of Trades THE WAVETIMER
usdjpy liq, fvgLiquidity grab on the 1H timeframe. Currently, there’s a break of structure and a fair value gap (FVG) that still needs to be filled. A solid setup for a good entry with a tight stop-loss.
USDJPY"I am considering a short trade on the USD/JPY pair. On the chart, we can see a potential order block from which we plan to open the short position. Currently, the price is in Phase C of Wyckoff's model, and I am expecting a test of the UTAD (Upthrust After Distribution) zone.
This implies that the price will likely reverse back to the order block, after which a price decline is expected. My target is set at the previous week's Tokyo session low.
This is a high-risk trade, so I will allocate only 1% of the deposit. The stop loss will be tight.
SP500
JPY/USD
USDJPY short entries this weekI will be entering short for mid to long term holds in usdjpy this week. I believe we have an abc cool off before next run.
USDJPY | DOUBLE BOTTOM USDJPY is on the buy on bigger time frame and we see some reversal signs there.
and then we see double bottom. DB or DT or very good reversal pattterns.
most of the trader trade double bottom wrong. the correct way is to wait when DB break its peak and then come back to for 3third touch or to break it.....
USDJPY UPDATE!!!!Good day gang
We up 75% in profits
We can close now or hold for full TP
Good luck gang
"USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Trend Outlook"
In the 4-hour timeframe, the USD/JPY currency pair has recently broken below its ascending trendline, indicating a shift toward a bearish sentiment. The price is currently approaching the key support zone between 151.91 and 152.46, which aligns with the 0.786 and 0.886 Fibonacci retracement levels. This area is expected to act as a significant resistance if the price attempts a pullback.
The Ichimoku cloud indicates bearish momentum, with the price positioned below the cloud. Furthermore, the Alligator indicator shows a clear bearish crossover, confirming the continuation of the downward trend.
The next potential target for the bearish movement is the 149.03 level, which corresponds to the 1.414 Fibonacci extension and acts as a critical support zone.
Conclusion: If the price remains below the 151.91-152.46 resistance zone, further declines toward 149.03 are likely. However, a break above this resistance could invalidate the bearish scenario and signal a potential reversal. Traders should closely monitor these levels for confirmation of the next price direction.
DeGRAM | USDJPY rebound from supportUSDJPY is under the descending channel and trend lines.
The price has already reached the support level, which previously acted as a rebound point.
RSI has started to indicate oversold.
The chart has formed a harmonic pattern.
We expect a rebound after the support retest is completed.
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USD/JPY - H4 - Channel Breakout The USD/JPY pair on the H4 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Channel Breakout pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Days.
USDJPY
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 154.00, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 151.30
2nd Support – 149.82
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USDJPY Two Possible Areas for Reversal(Follow for more Valuable Updates)
Note :
Do your own Research and Trade Wisely Never rely on my opinions.
Good Luck folks
USDJPYUSDJPY has formed Head and Shoulder pattern with strong bearish divergence. Sellers took the benefits from this pattern and price break through the HnS neckline.
As the sellers looking very aggressive , if the price retraced back to 50% Fib level, will be good level to sell again on strong bearish candle.
Market Analysis: USD/JPY DipsMarket Analysis: USD/JPY Dips
USD/JPY is declining and showing bearish signs below the 154.00 level.
Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today
- USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 155.00 and 154.00 levels.
- There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 153.60 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 155.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below the 154.00 support against the Japanese Yen.
The pair even settled below the 153.60 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low was formed at 152.33 and the pair is now showing bearish signs. On the downside, the first major support is near 152.20.
The next major support is near the 151.50 level. If there is a close below 151.50, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 150.00 support. Any more losses might send the pair toward 148.00.
Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 155.88 swing high to the 152.33 low.
The first major resistance is near a bearish trend line at 153.60. If there is a close above the 153.60 level and the hourly RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 154.10 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 155.88 swing high to the 152.33 low.
The next major resistance is near 155.05, above which the pair could test 155.00 in the coming days.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Just an update of USDJPY LongBecause I decided to publish my "moves" now, there are positions that are live and developed further from entries. Im just trying to show my approach my reasoning and management.
As for technical analysis goes. We had a break down of JPY strength With alot of LTF warnings but now even the daily gave us BOS. With this my confidance rank closed above 90% confirmig confluence with fundemental analysis and I took a long position.
For the fundamental analysis the long USDJPY position is fundamentally supported by the policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ, stronger U.S. economic data, yield differentials favoring the USD, and the USD’s relative safe-haven appeal. If the BoJ maintains its accommodative policies and the Fed stays hawkish, USD/JPY could see further upside.
so the update, technical analysis, yesterdays bear close did warn us, but thats pretty much it, one signal is just that a signal and nothing more, decisions to actually act need to be derived with confluence and proof.
Fundamentals still support the Long position and so does the chart.
USD/JPY:Yen Recovers as Interventions and Geopolitical Tensions The Japanese Yen has gained some ground against the U.S. Dollar, leading the USD/JPY pair to settle at 154.30 on Friday. This recovery is fueled by speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the domestic currency. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions are providing further backing for the safe-haven JPY.
Though the Yen is finding support, a slight decline in the U.S. Dollar is also helping to limit the upward movement of the currency pair. As noted in our previous discussion, the Dollar Index (DXY) appeared poised for a retracement. However, at the time of writing, the USD has managed to regain some strength against the JPY, trading around 154.72.
Analysis from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report suggests a potential reversal in the market's direction. Furthermore, historical seasonality trends indicate a possible shift toward bearish conditions, reflecting patterns observed over the last decade. This raises the possibility of continued bearish momentum for the USD/JPY pair moving forward.
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