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U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen

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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY, Where to Next?As explained before before, USD/JPY drowned almost two percent this week, three scenarios can play out next: - Bearish scenario: Current 4H chart is evolving into a bear flag from previous TR, bears could get a second or third (depending on ur analysis) leg down towards 154.00 target: -Bullish scenario: Bulls could fight of the downtrend and reclaim 156.000 to evolve into a trading range. This will be hard as they have to reclaim 20 EMA where bears might be present. Bulls would need to show consecutive buying to show they are back in control. -Sideways trading: Trading could be sideways to reach 20 EMA on the daily before next move is decided. So far, odds favour the Bear scenario, the longer we stay below the trading range, the more likely bears are will get their bear leg. - Scalp idea for the day traders: Currently, theres an extending triangle evolving with an inside wedge top, this could be a sign bears are stepping in again. Bulls did not show strength at start of day, they got two small legs, but were not satisfied, likely to start selling again. Day could evolve into trading range day depending on reaction at day open. If extending triangle plays out and there's consecutive selling, 155 is the target with 20 EMA acting as resistance. Peace, B Setup
by Baudoouin
"JPY/USD Bearish Channel Analysis: Potential Reversal Near ResisThis chart shows JPY/USD moving within a clear descending channel, marked by a resistance trendline (upper boundary) and a support trendline (lower boundary). The price is respecting the structure of the channel, bouncing between these trendlines. ### Key Observations: 1. **Current Position:** The price is near the resistance trendline, suggesting a potential reversal to the downside in line with the channel's bearish trend. 2. **Projected Move:** Based on the arrow drawn, the expectation is for the price to move lower toward the support trendline. 3. **Trend:** The overall structure indicates a bearish market within this channel. ### Possible Action: - Look for selling opportunities around the resistance trendline with targets toward the lower boundary of the channel (support). - Watch for a breakout from the channel if momentum builds significantly, as this could indicate a change in the trend.
Short
by TRADE_CENTER_1
USD/JPY climbs, markets eye TrumpThe Japanese yen is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.53, up 0.68% on the day. There are no key releases in the US today. On Thursday, the US releases unemployment claims and President Trump will address the World Economic Forum. Trump has vowed to levy tariffs on US trading partners, including China and the European Union. The financial markets are taking his threats seriously, and on Monday, his first day in office as President, Trump announced that he was delaying applying tariffs until Feb. 1. That announcement was a relief for the market and the US dollar fell sharply against many of the majors, although the yen failed to gain ground. Will Trump's comments at the World Economic Forum shake up the financial markets? Investors are keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan rate decision and December Core CPI on Friday. The central bank has hinted at a rate hike at the rate meeting and is widely expected to raise rates to 0.50%, which would be the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. After decades of deflation and an ultra-loose monetary policy, inflation has taken root and the BoJ is slowly moving towards normalization. The BoJ's tightening cycle makes it an outlier among the major central banks, most of which are easing rates in response to lower inflation. Japan's core inflation rate has been steadily rising and is expected to climb to 3% y/y in December 2024, up from 2.7% in November which was a three-month high. The core rate, which is a key gauge of inflation trends, has remained above the BoJ target of 2% for over two years and is a key reason why the BoJ is tightening policy. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.51 and 156.24. Above, there is resistance at 156.97 154.78 and 154.05 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDJPY Volatility Alert: President Trump Takes Office and BoJ AhIt's a big week ahead for USDJPY traders and volatility has already started to increase to reflect that. Last week USDJPY bounced between a high on Tuesday of 158.20 and a low on Friday of 154.98, before recovering to close the week back at 156.27. Now much of that USDJPY volatility was tracking US 10 year bond yields, which fell after US inflation prints on Tuesday (PPI) and Wednesday (CPI) were not as high as some economists had feared, before bouncing on Friday. However, in the week ahead markets face a much sterner test. Donald Trump finally takes office on Monday as President of the United States, and after much speculation, traders and investors will finally get to see how strong he will be from day one regarding trade tariffs on key trading partners China, Canada, Mexico and the EU, as well as tax cuts and other election spending commitments. Will he be measured in his approach, starting small on trade tariffs and suggesting there could be more to come if certain stipulations aren't met, which may see the dollar trend lower, or will he go big from the start, with blanket global tariffs on all goods, which could stoke inflation fears, see US bond yields start climbing again, taking the dollar back up to higher levels. Now the BoJ get to watch this all unfold in real time and digest the impact President Trump's actions have on the direction of USDJPY before they decide whether or not to raise interest rates on Friday morning at 0300 GMT. Market expectations are for hike of 25bps (0.25%) after BoJ Governor Ueda stated last week that policymakers were considering a potential move. However, the BoJ have disappointed before and if USDJPY isn't pushing back up towards 160 again they may wait for another month of economic data readings. So may be there is potential for more USDJPY volatility than usual, and being prepared is always important. So, lets take a look at what the technicals say. Are USDJPY Technicals Telling Us Anything? Since posting the recent 158.88 recovery high on January 10th, price corrections have developed, in an attempt to unwind over-extended upside conditions. Within this type of price activity, it can sometimes be Fibonacci retracement levels that highlight potential support, and so far at least, it has been the 38.2% level at 154.98, that has held weakness. While much depends on future price activity, this support level may continue to be the focus at the start of the week. While this level remains intact, it’s possible fresh attempts to resume strength can be seen and extend what is still a positive pattern of higher highs and higher lows in USDJPY prices, materialising since September 16th. If this proves to be the case, a potential resistance level may be the Bollinger mid-average at 157.32, and while closing breaks are not guaranteed, if it were to happen such moves may see a more extended phase of price strength towards higher levels. What if Support at 154.98 Gives Way? The 154.98 retracement support is still intact to start the week, and while this remains the case the potential may prove to be to the upside,. However, closing breaks lower, if seen could skew risks towards a resumption of price weakness towards support at 153.77, which is the 50% level on the chart above, or even 152.67, the 61.8% possible support. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
USDJPY - Long Setup My main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key swing low and left untouched swing high. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of strength, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price higher. Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Long
by Maks_Klimenko
BOJ interest rateBOJ interest rate decision tonight. 1/23/25 10pmEST cons = .5% prev = .25% 7/30/24 act = .25% prev = .10% 3/18/24 act = .10% prev = -10% USD/JPY longer time frame 100 & 200 moving averages trajectory has moderated from a steep upward slope to a relatively neutral slope, ever since BOJ .25% interest rate decision in July. The faster time frame 20 & 50 moving averages appear to be oscillating above and below the fib50 of the past year high and low. I see this as a good short USD/JPY entry as the BOJ continues to raise interest rates to stabilize the Yen value, and the FOMC rates are going down. Trade idea: short = 157.08 stop = 158.88 profit = 150.77 20sma = 157.08 50sma = 154.83 100sma = 151.24 200sma = 152.79 1yrhigh = 161.95 fib50 = 150.77 1yrlow = 139.58
Short
by Options360
USD/JPY: Consolidation Ahead of Big MoveLooking at the 4-hour chart of USD/JPY, I see the pair is currently trading around 155.79, with a notable reaction at the support area near 155.50. The 34 EMA and 89 EMA have started to widen their gap, indicating that the bearish pressure is still in place. However, the 155.50 price zone acts as an important psychological support, creating a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. The 34 EMA acts as dynamic resistance near 156.20. If the price fails to break above this level, the downtrend is likely to continue. A break below 155.50 could drag the price to test deeper support at 154.80 – a strong support level in previous sessions. Conversely, if the price breaks above the 34 EMA, the pair could test the higher resistance at 156.80, near the 89 EMA.
by nini_gone
Bank of Japan Raises Rates, Yen StrengthensBank of Japan Raises Rates, Yen Strengthens The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised short-term interest rates to 0.5%, the highest level in 17 years. While this move was anticipated, the currency market responded with a significant strengthening of the yen, with USD/JPY falling by approximately 0.6%. At a press conference, BOJ Governor Ueda stated that there is no predetermined course for future rate adjustments. Meanwhile, media reports cite analysts’ opinions suggesting that the rate could be raised again before the end of 2025. Technical analysis of the USD/JPY chart shows the formation of a descending channel (highlighted in red) at the start of 2025. The news of the rate hike enabled bears to launch another attack on the psychological level of 155 yen per dollar—a level that had previously served as support earlier this month. As of the morning of 24 January, bulls are managing to defend this level, but how long can they hold out if bearish pressure persists? Key points to note: → The USD/JPY trend resembles a rounding-top pattern. → The yen's strength is also supported by the dollar’s weakness, influenced by some uncertainty surrounding the introduction of international trade tariffs promised by US President Trump. Today, at 17:45 GMT+3, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures will be released, potentially triggering heightened volatility in financial markets. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
USD/JPY - Bulls defending ? Monday may show significant volatility in markets following Trump investiture. Where the dollar will head to remains uncertain, number of FED cuts for 2025 remain uncertain but recent NFP reports and CPI showed strength in labor market and higher inflation, leaning towards a hawkish Fed for this start of the year. What matters for next week is Trump's investiture, market will be responsive to any type of communication from the incoming president. Trump has made it clear that he wants a weak dollar to reduce the trade deficit. Technical show that Dollar has gained incredible momentum over the past 4 weeks. There will be a clear dilemma for the markets on will Trump's politic will be inflationary (and cause Fed to hold rates higher for longer) or will he succeed in implementing a weaker dollar. Historically, Dollar fell the first months Trump was in office in 2017. - Currently, USD/JPY FX:USDJPY is trading around a key area around 156.000 around the 4H 20 EMA. Bulls showed up on Friday. Bulls reclaim 156.000 area of this 4H trading range: - If dollar remains strong next week, we could see the USD/JPY continue to trade within this 4H range, which would confirm a failed breakout from this TR and put our next target on 158.000. Multiple ways to trade this, scale in if bulls strong on Monday for aggressive traders or wait to see to see consecutive 4H bull bars for entries. -Valid fake outs often lead to aggressive moves in the opposite direction of the breakout as sellers may be trapped in a loosing trade leading to both bulls and bears buying. DXY TVC:DXY bounced of the bullish trending line: - The play for next week could be to see the dollar rally towards 110.000-110.500 area and see some potential reaction there, potentially some sideways trading before market decides its next move. Remember to be careful on this, last week USD/JPY was a bear bar closing below its lower half which may be a sell signal for next week. Next week will be volatile for markets so I'd recommend lowering your trading size. This is a C setup. Peace,
Long
by Baudoouin
USD/JPY Under Pressure: Yen Strengthens Amid Bearish MomentumThe USD/JPY pair exhibits a clear bearish inclination, driven by a combination of economic and market factors that are strengthening the Japanese Yen and weakening the US Dollar. Currently, the pair has dropped to approximately 155.60, recording a 0.44% loss for the day, with sellers evidently attempting to push the price further toward critical support levels between 154.90 and 153.15. The downward pressure is amplified by rising expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, further supported by recent positive data such as improvements in Japan’s core machinery orders, signaling a recovery in capital expenditure. Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding the economic policies of the Trump administration contributes to a negative climate for the US Dollar, which is already under pressure from a recent slowdown in buying flows. From a technical perspective, the pair has encountered significant resistance in the 156.55-156.60 region, a level that halted previous recovery attempts and now acts as a key barrier. For a meaningful trend reversal, a sustained breakout above this resistance, followed by consolidation above 157.00, would be necessary to pave the way toward recent highs at 158.00 or even 158.85. However, the likelihood of a downward breakout seems more tangible, considering that the support at 155.25 represents the last defense before a drop toward the psychological level of 155.00 and further toward 154.60 and 153.30. The current market environment, characterized by reduced trading volumes due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the US, suggests caution for traders, as dynamics could quickly shift with the return of liquidity and the announcement of potential monetary or political decisions in both Japan and the US. The combination of positive economic data for Japan and expectations of higher rates positions the Yen in a place of strength, while the Dollar may continue to struggle without a clear positive catalyst. Holding below 155.00 would be a significant signal for bears, indicating an extended downward trajectory toward deeper support levels.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
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