02-06-2025 _ Short Term Bearish Idea _ USDJPY H41- Price is moving in a strong down trend.
2- Rising Trendlind breakout and retest.
3- Convergence
4- After pullback, one can expect a push to the downside.
USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY Short: 61.8% retracementHi, a simple reason to short: 61.8% retracement. Stop above 144.44.
Thank you.
Yen rises sharply, Tokyo Core CPI nextThe Japanese yen has edged higher on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.57, up 0.16% on the day.
Tokyo Core CPI surprised on the downside in June, falling to 3.1% y/y. This was down sharply from the 3.6% gain in May and below the market estimate of 3.3%. This was the the first slowdown in Tokyo core inflation since February. The decline was largely driven by a renewal of fuel subsidies and a reduction in water charges.
Despite the drop, core inflation remains well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, maintaining expectations for another rate hike in the second half of the year. BoJ Governor Ueda has signaled that the Bank will raise rates if it is confident that wage growth is sustained, which is critical to maintaining inflation at the 2% target. However, this week's BOJ Summary of Opinions showed that some members are more dovish, given global trade tensions and the bumpy US-Japan trade talks. Japan has said it will not agree to US tariffs of 25% on Japanese cars, and six rounds of talks in the past two months have failed to produce a deal.
The Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, accelerated in May and was higher than expected. The index rose 2.7% y/y up from an upwardly revised 2.6% in May and above the consensus of 2.6%. Monthly, the index rose 0.2%, up from 0.1% which was also the consensus. This was a three-month high and will boost the case for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the July meeting.
USD/JPY faces resistance at 144.49 and 144.64
144.31 and 144.16 are the next support levels
Is USDJPY in a Downtrend?USDJPY is supported by the trendline and the price is facing the resistance zone of 144.500. If the candle cannot close above this resistance zone, the sellers can push the price to break the trendline and head towards the support zone of 142.700. This support zone plays an important role in shaping the trend if broken the downtrend can be extended and no support zone can be strong enough to push the price of the pair until 140.300.
There is still a high possibility of a reaction so the BUY strategy at the support zone of 142.700 is still ready
On the other hand, if the candle closes above the resistance zone of 144.500, the uptrend is still maintained and heading towards this week's peak around 147.500. Pay attention to the price reaction at 146.000.
USDJPY: Bullish Forecast & Bullish Scenario
The recent price action on the USDJPY pair was keeping me on the fence, however, my bias is slowly but surely changing into the bullish one and I think we will see the price go up.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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usdjpy looks to be doing the things its never a long wait if you have it right , lets see if the usd will take over
USDJPY BUY OPPORTUNITY Am selling a buy Opportunities on USDJPY
Entry:
Stoploss
Take profit:
Always wait for chart pattern and Price action arround the entry before clicking the buy button
Comment your opinion pls.
For Account management. Contact me on X @shajudeakinoba1
USDJPY: Ready for Wave 5?USDJPY is showing a strong bullish wave structure, with a clear path toward higher levels based on Elliott Wave Theory. After a successful breakout from a multi-year consolidation, price action appears to be completing a Wave (4) correction thereby setting the stage for a Wave (5) rally.
Based on the bullish structure and projected continuation:
1st Target = 157.78
2nd Target = 177.41
Final Target = 209.16 Full wave extension, top of macro channel
With support holding above ¥140.00 and a bullish bounce forming, this could mark the Wave C bottom of (4), setting the stage for the next major leg up.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Markets are dynamic and unpredictable.
SELL: USDJPY 144.75 Trade Recommendation – 1H Chart🎯 Trade Setup:
Sell Entry Zone: 144.75 – 144.78
Stop Loss (SL): 145.15
Take Profit (TP): 142.60
Risk:Reward Ratio (R:R): Approx. 1:4 → Excellent for swing or intraday setups
📊 Technical Analysis Breakdown:
1. Strong Resistance Zone – High Reversal Probability:
The 144.75–144.78 zone:
A clear historical resistance area with multiple rejections in the past
Converges with the SMA 89 (red line) → acts as a strong dynamic resistance
Price has consistently formed lower highs around this region → showing selling pressure is building
2. Volume Analysis – Distribution Signals:
Volume slightly increased as price approached the resistance but did not accompany a breakout
No “breakout volume” → Indicates possible distribution phase, not accumulation → Favoring SELL positions
3. Price Action & Pattern:
The structure is forming lower highs – a key sign of bearish momentum
After the sharp rejection from the 145.22 zone (June 26), the market has shifted toward a bearish correction cycle
4. Target Area – Key Support:
142.60 is a well-defined support level:
Matches a previous major low
Corresponds with a high-liquidity zone from prior trading sessions
Ideal area to take profit before any potential bounce
⚠️ Risk Management Notes:
Trade confirmation increases if you see bearish candlestick signals (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bar) in the entry zone
Exit immediately if price breaks and closes above 145.15 with strong volume – that invalidates the bearish setup
USD/JPY Bearish Setup: Target 144.309USD/JPY Technical Analysis (30-Min Chart)
Current Price: 145.157
Chart Pattern: The chart shows a bearish structure forming after a sharp drop from the recent high near 147.9. The price is currently consolidating below a resistance zone.
Key Resistance Zone: ~145.70 – 146.00 (highlighted by the orange box)
Support Zone: ~144.30 (target area)
Bearish Outlook:
The price formed a lower high after the drop from the recent peak, indicating selling pressure.
A potential bearish flag or lower high rejection is forming.
The forecasted path suggests a downward move towards 144.309, aligning with the previous support area.
Conclusion:
The setup favors short positions if the price fails to break above the 145.70–146.00 resistance.
Target remains 144.309, with a break below that possibly opening the way to 143.50.
Watch for price action near the blue zone to confirm the downward continuation.
UJ correlating with the dollar?We see price creating LL's and LH's heading to the downside. Structure retested at a LH with a perfect bearish engulfing printing right after the retest of support which turned resistance! Counter trend line was broken. I was also looking at multiple brokers & it looks like the 4hr bearish engulfing only printed on a select few brokers . . Although we did align on a 15 min which is lower time frame. Trade management is key, we shall see what happens next!
USDJPY H4 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 145.45, a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fib retracement.
Our take profit is set at 146.79 a pullback resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 143.97, an overlap support.
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USDJPYLooking at this chart after I just did the EURJPY analysis, now this one looks more bullish than bearish BUT that's only if there is a breakout from the supply zone which Im assuming will give us a consolidation first before it shoots straight up to complete Wave 5. At the completion of Wave 5, we can expect the drop again as a correction and retest, which should usher in more buyers to form a Cup and Holder pattern. I really see the JPY being stronger than USD futuristically and practically.
USD/JPY Breaks Higher – Bullish Momentum Targets 148.40FX:USDJPY CMCMARKETS:USDJPY USD/JPY continues to climb, extending gains above the key 146.00 breakout level, supported by Fed–BoJ policy divergence and rising geopolitical tensions. Despite Japan’s strong CPI and PMI prints, the BoJ maintains a dovish tone, while tariff concerns continue to cap yen sentiment. The Middle East conflict further fuels demand for the USD as a safe haven.
Technically, the pair confirmed a bullish breakout, with price hugging the upper Bollinger Band – a sign of sustained upside pressure. As long as 146.00 holds, bulls may aim for the 148.40 monthly resistance.
Key Levels :
Resistance : 146.75 / 148.40
Support : 146.00 / 145.25
⚠️ Momentum favours the upside while above 146.00. Break below may trigger short-term pullback toward 145.25.
Forecast USDJPY This is not financial advice. Educational purpose only."
I am preparing to take a short position on USDJPY starting next week, in alignment with the upcoming rollover of futures contracts. My analysis is based on a combination of technical, macroeconomic, behavioral, and institutional elements.
From a technical perspective, a clear bearish reversal divergence is visible on the weekly chart using the 21-period RSI based on HLCC/4. While the price is making higher highs, momentum is weakening, indicating a loss of bullish strength. This setup is reinforced by a long-term continuation divergence that has been forming since the major tops of 1971, suggesting a possible terminal phase in the current cycle.
COT data supports this view. Large speculators have been steadily reducing their long positions on USDJPY over recent weeks. More significantly, these same institutional players have begun accumulating long positions on Japanese yen futures (6J), often a precursor to a monetary rotation. The upcoming rollover of futures contracts next week could trigger a more pronounced shift in institutiona positioning.
Macroeconomic data from the United States also confirms a slowdown. Core PCE came in at 0.1%, below expectations. Nonfarm Payrolls underperformed, and the ISM Services Index dropped below 50, signaling contraction. In contrast, Japan maintains stable inflation around 2.3%, which gives the Bank of Japan room to begin policy normalization. The yield differential is starting to narrow, a historically bearish factor for USDJPY.
Finally, market sentiment remains skewed. Retail traders are still heavily positioned long on USDJPY. Such imbalances, where retail crowds are long and institutional players are exiting, often precede sharp reversals.
If the expected institutional reallocation materializes after the futures rollover, I will enter a short position. Technical, fundamental, and cyclical factors are now fully aligned.
"This is a personal market view. Always do your own research before making trading decisions."
NEXT WEEK CHECK USDJPY SIGNAL READ CAPTAINEntry: around 146.100)146.200 ✅
Take Profit 146.480 ✅
Take Profit :146.800 ✅
Last Target: 147.300✅
Stop Loss: 145.760❌
Could the price bounce from here?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 144.34
1st Support: 142.98
1st Resistance: 146.15
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Reason for SELL (USDJPY M30)1. [Strong Resistance Zone
Price reached a key resistance (red zone) that was rejected multiple times before.
USDJPY Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoringUSDJPY for a selling opportunity around 145.700 zone, USDJPY is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 145.700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
USD/JPY.1h chart pattern.(USD/JPY 1H), the price has broken below the rising channel, suggesting a bearish move ahead. Here are the two key target levels marked on My chart:
Targets:
1. First Target: Around 144.100
2. Second (Deeper) Target: Around 143.200
These levels align with previous support zones and measured moves from the channel breakdown.
Let me know if you’d like stop-loss or entry suggestions too.
USDJPY – Fed Meeting Ahead With Range Highs In FocusYesterday’s Bank of Japan meeting saw the central bank act as expected. They kept interest rates unchanged and slowed the pace at which they will decrease monthly JGB purchases by half to help ensure market stability. This eventually assisted USDJPY to push higher and touch a peak early this morning at 145.44, matching a monthly high set on June 11th (145.46).
So far, this move to June range highs has been met with fresh selling, but there is still a lot for FX traders to consider moving into the Friday close, including an escalating conflict in the Middle East that has seen Israel and Iran exchange fire for six days in a row, and more importantly for wider financial markets, has drawn the full attention of President Trump and his national security team. How this situation evolves across the remainder of this week could influence the direction of USDJPY.
Also important could be the outcome later this evening of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision (1900 BST) and Press Conference (1930 BST). No change to interest rates is expected as policymakers, including Chairman Powell have been clear that they are currently in wait and see mode before making their next move, however their updated projections for US inflation, growth, and rate cuts may provide some extra volatility for USDJPY prices if these deviate from market expectations.
We shouldn’t forget it is also a holiday in the US tomorrow so liquidity could be reduced, so assessing the technical outlook, including relevant support and resistance levels may be useful.
Technical Update: Balanced Range Extends into Fed Meeting
Little has changed in USDJPY price activity from a technical perspective following Tuesday’s Bank of Japan meeting, and the focus now shifts to Wednesday’s Fed meeting in the US as the next potential sentiment driver for price.
As the chart above shows, the latest USDJPY activity has been held within a sideways range marked by potential support at 142.11, the May 27th session low, and potential resistance at 146.29, the May 29th session high.
This latest price activity may be an indication of trader uncertainty as to the direction of the next move and possibly the need for prices to ‘breakout’ and establish where the next directional risks might lay.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed and a closing break above resistance or below support might not see a more sustained phase of price movement, however being prepared is important.
Let’s consider the potential levels traders might find useful to watch if a breakout from the current sideways range is seen.
Potential Resistance Levels:
Successful closing breaks above 146.29 might be viewed by some as opening scope to higher levels and may possibly lead to a more sustained phase of price strength.
It’s at this time that the focus for traders may shift to the next potential resistance which could be at 148.65, the May 12th session high, even 151.21, the March 28th peak.
Potential Support Levels:
Equally possible within the current more balanced sideways price activity, is that a closing break under support provided by the May 27th low at 142.11 might well develop and be viewed as a potential negative breakout from the current sideways price range.
If closes below support at 142.11 are seen over the coming sessions, it might reflect for moves to even lower levels in price, with traders potentially shifting their focus to the April 22nd low trade at 139.89 as the possible next support.
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Bearish breakout off major support?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot which acts as an overlap support and a breakout of this level could lead the price to drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 144.51
1st Support: 143.74
1st Resistance: 145.22
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish reversal?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could rise from this level to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 143.79
1st Support: 139.64
1st Resistance: 148.91
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
