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USDJPY trade ideas

USD/JPY SHORT SET UP📉 USD/JPY – Short Setup in Play After Major Rally 🗓️ Published May 12, 2025 | 4H Chart | OANDA After a strong bullish surge in USD/JPY, price has now tapped into a key resistance zone near 148.875, aligning closely with prior supply and the declining 200 EMA. This area also coincides with a psychological resistance level. 💡 A short position has been initiated following rejection from the supply zone, marked by a clean bearish candle and fading momentum. The blue arrow highlights the entry confirmation area.
Short
by washbismarck
Global Calm, Fiscal Storm: The Yen's Challenge?The USD/JPY currency pair has recently experienced a notable surge, driving the Japanese Yen to its weakest level against the US Dollar in a month. This appreciation primarily stems from a significant improvement in global risk sentiment, sparked by a breakthrough trade agreement between the United States and China. This deal, aimed at reducing the US trade deficit, has bolstered investor confidence and diminished the traditional safe-haven appeal of the Yen. Adding to the dollar's strength is the Federal Reserve's continued hawkish stance, signaling no immediate plans for interest rate cuts and reinforcing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets amidst easing concerns about a US recession. Simultaneously, internal economic pressures in Japan significantly weigh on the Yen. The nation's public debt has reached an unprecedented high, driven by persistent increases in defense spending and social welfare costs due to an aging population. Government subsidies for energy bills and the need to issue more bonds to cover rising expenditures exacerbate this fiscal strain. This challenging domestic backdrop contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve's position, creating a widening divergence in monetary policy outlooks that favors the US Dollar through yield differentials, despite the Bank of Japan's cautious consideration of future rate adjustments. Furthermore, reducing global geopolitical tensions has contributed to the shift away from safe-haven currencies. Recent ceasefires and prospects for diplomatic talks in key conflict areas have encouraged a "risk-on" environment in financial markets. This increased appetite for riskier assets directly reduces demand for the Japanese Yen, amplifying the impact of fundamental economic factors and monetary policy divergence on the USD/JPY exchange rate. The pair's trajectory remains subject to evolving global dynamics, upcoming economic data releases, and central bank communications.
Long
by UDIS_View
USDJPY: Bearish Trend ContinuesThe exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen continues its downward trend, further retreating from the 148.65 area (the highest level since April 3) touched earlier this week. During the European trading session, driven by multiple factors, the exchange rate dropped below 146.00. The daily chart of the US dollar against the Japanese yen shows that the exchange rate is in a downward channel. Currently, the price is retesting the important support area of 145.230, which has served as a resistance level on many occasions before. From the perspective of the Bollinger Bands indicator, the exchange rate has declined from the upper band (147.848) and is currently hovering near the middle band, indicating that the short - term downward pressure still exists. you are currently struggling with losses, or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow, at this moment, you can choose to observe the operations within our channel.
Short
by HilaryBloomer
USD/JPY Breaks Out – Bulls Eye 149.35 Fibonacci TargetUSD/JPY surged nearly 2%, breaking above both its 50-day SMA and short-term downtrend line, signaling a potential trend reversal: 📈 Strong bullish candle, clearing the 146.50–147.50 zone 📊 RSI climbing through 60, showing accelerating bullish momentum 📉 MACD crossing the zero line, reinforcing the bullish signal 🔺 Next upside targets: 149.35 = 50% Fib retracement of the Dec–April decline 151.60 = 61.8% Fib and near 200-day SMA Staying above 146.30 keeps the bias bullish. A close above 149.35 would open the door for a potential run toward 154.80. -MW
by FOREXcom
USDJPY InsightWelcome to all our subscribers! Please feel free to share your personal thoughts in the comments. Don't forget to hit the booster and subscribe! Key Points - The U.S. and China have agreed to reduce tariffs by 115% during a high-level trade negotiation held in Geneva, Switzerland. As a result, the U.S. will impose a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, while China will impose a 10% tariff on U.S. imports. - U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he "might be able to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week." However, he warned that if the two countries fail to reach an agreement within 90 days, tariffs could be "significantly higher" than the current 30%. - The possibility of a ceasefire in the Russia–Ukraine war remains uncertain. While the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine proposed a 30-day ceasefire, Russia has not responded and has instead continued drone attacks on Ukraine. Major Economic Events This Week + May 13: U.S. April Consumer Price Index (CPI) + May 14: Germany April Consumer Price Index + May 15: U.K. Q1 GDP, U.S. April Retail Sales, U.S. April Producer Price Index (PPI), Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell + May 16: Japan Q1 GDP USDJPY Chart Analysis Although it briefly stalled near the 146 level, USDJPY has ultimately broken through resistance and is showing a steep upward trend. It is currently trading near the 149 level, and unless there is a major shift, the pair is expected to continue its climb toward the 151 range. We will reassess its direction once it approaches that level.
Long
by shawntime_academy
USDJPY Smart Money Short Setup | 30m OB + FVG Reaction🧠 USDJPY 30m SMC Setup | May 9, 2025 We’ve got a high-probability short brewing as price taps the premium zone and aligns with multiple Smart Money Concepts. A clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) is sitting inside a bearish Order Block, with price aggressively wicking into it — right where institutions unload. 🔍 KEY CONFLUENCES: 🧱 Bearish Order Block rejection in premium ⚡ Fair Value Gap filled at 145.910 💰 Risk-to-Reward ~1:4+, targeting discounted zone 🧲 Liquidity sweep + FVG fill = SM distribution trigger ⏳ Entry timing aligned with NY session reaction 📊 Setup Specs: Pair: USDJPY Timeframe: 30 min Entry: 145.910 (after FVG fill) SL: ~146.246 TP: ~144.440 RR: Approx. 1:4.5 💡 Smart Money Logic: Price filled a clean imbalance zone, ran liquidity from earlier highs, and instantly showed distribution behavior. If momentum confirms with a bearish break, this becomes a high-conviction short. 📈 Chart Ninja Note: “FVG + OB is where the banks sell while the crowd buys… don’t be the crowd.”
Short
by ChartNinjas88
4
Selling momentum has weakened - uptrend continues🔔🔔🔔 USD/JPY news: ➡️ The USD/JPY pair declined after posting a gain of over 2% in the previous session, trading around 147.90 during Tuesday’s European session. The pair weakened as the Japanese yen appreciated, despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate outlook. ➡️ BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida acknowledged both upside and downside risks stemming from potential U.S. tariffs, highlighting that such measures could put pressure on Japan's economy. He also stated that Japan's economic growth is expected to slow to its potential pace before gradually recovering, assuming a rebound in global economic conditions. Personal opinion: ➡️ Signs of a decline from the oversold area seem to have weakened, USD/JPY cannot break down to the 157.50 area and shows signs of increasing again. ➡️ Analysis based on resistance - support zones and trend lines combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy FM's personal plan: 🔆Price Zone Setup: 👉Buy USD/JPY 147.70- 147.60 ❌SL: 147.30 | ✅TP: 148.40 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Long
by FM-ForexMastermind
This could be a trade of a lifetime. Watching JPY/USD🧠 Technical Analysis: USD/JPY (1M Chart) — May 16, 2025 📍 Chart Summary: Asset: USD/JPY Timeframe: 1-Minute Tool: Fibonacci Retracement Observation: The price has retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level near 145.55–145.56, which aligns with a historical order block. Strong support is evident at 145.557, confirmed by reaction wick and historical volume absorption. The projected path (red arrow) suggests a potential bullish reversal targeting 146.552 (1.382 Fibonacci extension). 📊 Key Levels: Level Type Price Key Support (Order Block) 145.557 Entry Area (Fib 0.618) 145.648 Local Resistance 146.100 Target (1.382 ext.) 146.552 ✅ Trade Setup (Bullish Bias): Entry: 145.56–145.65 Stop-Loss: Below 145.45 (Fib 0.5 + prior low buffer) Take-Profit: 146.10 → 146.38 → 146.55 Risk-Reward: ~1:2.5 if executed properly 🧠 Probability Estimate: Reversal from 61.8% Fib + OB: ~70% Hitting 146.55 (1.382 ext.): ~55–60% Invalidation: Break & close below 145.45 (below 0.5 level)
Long
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
USDJPY Setup: Weak Highs, Smart Money Buys Liquidity!!📊 USDJPY is showing signs of a Smart Money reversal from the discount zone. This 30-minute chart reveals institutional intentions hiding in plain sight — with clear signs of engineered liquidity grabs and the potential for a strong bullish continuation. 🧠 What’s Happening on the Chart: ✅ Price has swept sell-side liquidity below the recent lows ✅ Retraced cleanly to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 146.26, a classic Smart Money entry zone ✅ The current price is hovering around the 50% retracement, forming a potential higher low structure 📈 Bullish Confluence: Price is rebounding from a discount zone (golden ratio: 61.8% Fib) There’s a clearly defined "weak high" marked around 147.00 — Smart Money typically targets these areas Above that, there are two stacked buy-side liquidity levels: 147.670 148.282 Final target? The liquidity pool near 148.654 — a clean magnet for price 🎯 Trade Idea: Long Bias from 146.26–146.43 zone (Smart Money re-entry) Targets: TP1: 147.00 (Weak High) TP2: 147.670 (Buy Side Liquidity) TP3: 148.282 – 148.654 (Full Liquidity Sweep) Invalidation: Clean break below 146.20 with strong bearish volume 📌 Why This Setup Works: This setup uses Smart Money Concepts (SMC): Weak Highs often signal institutional targets Fair Value Gap (FVG) + Fib confluence adds strong bullish probability Retail shorts get trapped, thinking the rally was a pullback — while institutions accumulate at discount 🧠 Pro Tip: Watch for confirmation with a bullish engulfing candle or break of short-term structure before full entry. Front-running the Smart Money leads to losses. Let them move first. 💬 Comment "USDJPY MOVE" if you're planning to trade this setup 💾 Save this chart for later — this is how the big players trade FX.
Long
by ChartNinjas88
2 profit targets for USDJPYThe peak for this pair was around 160+ in Jun 2024 and it falls to a lower high to 157 on Jan 25. From here onwards, it has gone south in direction with the red bearish trend line remaining intact. A fake bullish candle on 12 May 25 took many traders by surprise and killed many shortists, including me, not once but twice. Now on the 4H chart, I present you 2 shorting opportunity with relatively good risk rewards ratio. The first one should touch the green bullish trend line and break down. Thereafter, we should witness it going down to around 142.90 level. Ideally, it should comes to the 140 support price level but let's take one step at a time....... As usual , please DYODD (Warning - This pair though liquid is volatile and may not suit beginners who want a peaceful night sleep. Your profits can quickly turn back to losses and vice versa within the days. Patience required and a strong heart)
Short
by dchua1969
USD/JPY Poised for Breakout: Watch the 145.60 TriggerUSD/JPY remains in a broader uptrend, with buyers defending the 141.00–144.50 support zone on the daily chart. While price has recently pulled back from the 148.50 high, the overall structure remains bullish. On the hourly timeframe, the pair has been moving within a descending channel since May 13. However, a double bottom near 141.80 and a push back toward 145.50 suggest buyers are regaining control. A breakout above the channel resistance at 145.60 could signal the end of the correction and a new leg higher toward 147.00–148.00. The 15-minute chart supports this setup, showing a bull-flag consolidation above 145.20 and rising trendline support near 145.10. Volume has thinned during the flag formation, indicating a potential surge on breakout. Traders should look to buy above 145.60, targeting 146.20 and 146.80, with stops just below 145.00. A break under 145.00 flips the short-term bias bearish, with downside targets at 144.60 and 144.20. Overall, the technicals favor a bullish breakout scenario into the week, provided 145.00 holds. Intraday traders should closely monitor the 145.00–145.60 zone for momentum confirmation.
Long
by BlackCandleTrader