USDJPY Will Explode! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the USDJPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 142.79
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 143.26
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY Wave Analysis – 15 April 2025
- USDJPY reversed from long-term support level 142.00
- Likely to rise to the resistance level 144.65
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the long-term support level 142.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of 2023), support trendline of the weekly down-channel from January and the lower weekly Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (3) from last month.
Given the strength of the support level 142.00 and the oversold weekly Stochastic, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 144.65.
USDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D17 Y25USDJPY SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D17 Y25
GM GM
SUMMARY
- Weekly low long setup
- Weekly order block Long set up
- 15' break of structure is required
- Lower time frame break of structure required
- Price action turn around in bullish direction required. Higher time frame closure. 1H minimum required.
Trade Well.
FRGNT X
USDJPY M15 | Bullish Bounce Based on the M15 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 142.16, a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 143.55, a swing high resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 141.62, a swing low support.
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USD/JPY: Yen's Bull Run Amid UncertaintyThis week, the Japanese yen made a remarkable performance in the foreign exchange market. The USD/JPY exchange rate started with a significant decline. Reaching a high on Monday, it then trended downwards and hit a low of 142.050 during the week. By Friday, it closed at 143.486, registering a weekly drop of around 1.35%.
In the context of surging market risk - averse sentiment, the yen became a much - sought - after asset. Although its appreciation against the US dollar was relatively moderate, its volatility increased substantially. This sharp rise in volatility clearly shows that the market's appetite for the yen as a safe - haven currency has grown rapidly.
The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict remains a major source of uncertainty in the global financial arena. Coupled with tariff - related discussions and potential trade - policy changes, these factors have further enhanced the yen's attractiveness as a safe - haven. Additionally, the US dollar index has dropped to a two - year low. This decline has relieved the downward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate, enabling the yen to gain some ground.
The yen's strength this week mainly stems from the weakness of the US dollar and the influx of risk - averse capital. Looking ahead in the short - term, the USD/JPY exchange rate is expected to test the 143.00 level. The Russia - Ukraine situation and persistent trade uncertainties will likely continue to support the yen. Moreover, the market's close attention to the Bank of Japan's monetary policies may exacerbate the yen's volatility.
The bullish momentum of the yen is steadily accumulating. If the US dollar continues to be under pressure, there is a high probability that the USD/JPY exchange rate could decline towards 142.00. However, it should be noted that currency markets are highly complex and prone to sudden reversals. Even though the current trends indicate continued strengthening of the yen, unforeseen geopolitical events or shifts in central - bank policies could quickly change the market situation.
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Traders, if this concept fits your style or you have insights, comment! I'm keen to hear.
USDJPY Is Bearish! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 143.347.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 141.021 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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WHY USDJPY BULLISH ??DETAILED ANALYSISUSDJPY is currently reacting strongly from a well-established demand zone near the 142.50–143.00 level. After a sharp correction, price has shown signs of exhaustion at support, suggesting a potential bullish reversal is underway. If this bounce sustains, we could see a significant upside move toward the 157.00 region, aligning with the previous high and maintaining the longer-term bullish structure.
From a technical standpoint, this level has historically acted as a key pivot zone. The bullish engulfing candlestick pattern forming here hints at renewed buyer interest, and with risk-reward highly favorable, this could be an ideal entry point for swing traders. The risk remains limited below 139.00, while the upside potential offers over 1:3 reward.
Fundamentally, the divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan continues to support a bullish outlook for USDJPY. Recent U.S. inflation data came in hotter than expected, reigniting speculation that the Fed may delay rate cuts. Meanwhile, the BoJ has shown minimal inclination to shift away from ultra-loose policy, keeping the yen pressured.
This pair remains one of the top-watched on TradingView, drawing high search volume due to its volatility and potential breakout structure. With market sentiment leaning risk-on and yield differentials favoring the dollar, this rebound from support could be the beginning of a new leg up. Keep an eye on DXY movements and U.S. treasury yields for confirmation.
USDJPY Buy Trade Setup – 4H TimeframeI have taken a buy position on USDJPY based on a confluence of technical factors supporting a bullish bias:
🔹 Key Weekly Support Zone: Price recently bounced from a strong weekly support level, which has held well in the past, indicating buyers' interest.
🔹 Bullish Daily Candle: On the daily timeframe, a strong bullish candlestick closed above the support level, signaling a potential trend reversal or short-term upside move.
🔹 Trendline Support: On the 4H chart, price is respecting a clear ascending trendline, acting as dynamic support.
🔹 RSI Indicator: RSI is recovering from the oversold zone and showing signs of bullish momentum buildup, supporting a possible upward move.
🔹 200 EMA (Resistance): While the price is still trading below the 200 EMA, this trade targets a move toward that level as the next potential resistance.
🎯 Entry: Near 143.00
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 142.20 (just under recent wick lows)
✅ Take Profit: Around 144.80 (just before the 200 EMA)
Risk-to-reward ratio is favorable, and this setup aligns with higher-timeframe support and confirmation from bullish price action.
USDJPY: Major turning point ahead?🧩 On the weekly and monthly timeframes, the structure of CAPITALCOM:USDJPY FX:USDJPY OANDA:USDJPY FOREXCOM:USDJPY FX_IDC:USDJPY remains highly ambiguous. The key question now is: are we on the verge of a long-term trend reversal and the beginning of yen appreciation, or is this just another phase in an ongoing uptrend?
📌 Why it matters: The Carry Trade Effect
The yen has traditionally been a key funding currency in carry trades — a strategy where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding assets abroad. However, the unwinding of the carry trade, which started in August 2024 and continues today, is leading to yen strength and broad risk-off across global markets, from equities to crypto.
📊 What does the technical picture say?
Looking at the structure since 2022, we see a series of zigzag formations that collectively resemble a triangle or other corrective pattern.
📌 Base scenario:
We're likely in the development of wave C of a triangle. This wave could extend to the 140–138 area, where we find:
key trendline support
200-week moving average
high volume support zone (VPVR)
or
📌 Alternative view – Ending Diagonal
If the current structure turns out to be an ending diagonal, it may signal a full trend reversal and the start of a deeper cycle of yen strength. This remains an alternate view for now, but one worth tracking.
⚠️ Fundamental triggers for yen strength:
Aggressive Fed rate cuts in 2025
Rising geopolitical risks
Institutional unwind of carry trades
Continued hawkish stance from the BoJ (dependent on inflation metrics)
📍 Bottom line:
This is a pivotal moment. The decision of large players here could define the trend for years to come. Watch the 140–138 zone and volume reactions. A breakdown below this area would confirm the beginning of a strong yen trend.
Safe-haven currencies gain in uncertain trade landscapeFinancial markets continue to navigate a complex landscape shaped by evolving U.S. trade policies and global economic dynamics. U.S. dollar weakness is at the centre of attention as investors reconsider the greenback’s safe haven status in a world of trade wars.
There has been some relief on the tariff front—at least for now—allowing U.S. and global equities to recover in recent sessions. The Swiss franc and euro have gained significant ground as safe haven flows bolster confidence, while the pound has remained resilient, supported by solid UK economic data and expectations for a more stable Bank of England policy outlook.
In Asia, the yen continues to attract bids, reflecting Japan’s firm stance in upcoming trade talks with the U.S. Overall, markets remain cautiously optimistic, balancing hopes for trade de-escalation against persistent uncertainty from erratic U.S. policy moves.
Looking ahead, key calendar standouts include German wholesale prices, UK employment data, Eurozone industrial production, German and Eurozone ZEW sentiment readings, Canadian inflation, U.S. import and export prices, Empire manufacturing, and various Fed speeches.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 18, 2025 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is down to 142.25 in thin trading session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) is declining against the Japanese Yen (JPY) amid concerns over the economic impact of tariffs.
Data released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on Friday showed that the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.6% in March, up from the previous reading of 3.7%. Meanwhile, the national CPI excluding fresh food was 3.2% y/y in March, up from 3.0% previously. The reading was in line with the market consensus.
Finally, the consumer price index excluding fresh food and energy rose 2.9% y/y in March vs. the previous reading of 2.6%. The Japanese Yen remains strong against the US Dollar as an immediate reaction to Japanese inflation data.
However, JPY gains may be limited as Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials signalled a pause in the consideration of interest rate hikes, emphasising the need to monitor uncertainty heightened by US tariff measures.
Economic data from the US on Thursday was mixed. US initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level in two months, signalling a stable labour market. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed index fell short of expectations, a warning shot from the manufacturing sector.
Trade recommendation: SELL 142.05, SL 143.40, TP 139.80
USDJPY InsightHello to all our subscribers!
Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points
- U.S. President Trump stated that he is considering ways to support car manufacturers, noting that these companies are shifting parts production from countries like Canada and Mexico to the U.S., and that this transition will take time.
- Amid concerns that Trump’s tariff policies and the resulting trade war could harm the global economy, hedge funds and asset managers have been increasing their yen long positions.
- Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda remarked that uncertainties surrounding domestic and global economies and prices have significantly increased. The market expects that the BOJ will not raise interest rates in its upcoming meeting on May 1.
Key Economic Events This Week
+ April 16: U.K. March CPI, Eurozone March CPI, U.S. March Retail Sales, Bank of Canada (BOC) rate decision
+ April 17: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision, Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell
+ April 18: Easter
USDJPY Chart Analysis
As previously anticipated, USDJPY appears to have formed a bottom around the 142 level and is now attempting to rebound from that support zone. The current upward movement is expected to peak near the 146 level. After that, it is likely to turn downward again and form a new low around the 140–141 range. However, if the price breaks above the 146 level during this rally, there is a possibility it could rise further to the 151 level, which is worth noting.
USDJPY (1h) sell updateEarlier this week we had this USDJPY sell setup where price perfectly pulled back into our entry price and even though it's been ranging the trade is now running in profit so if you did take this trade move the stop-loss to break-even (to the entry level) & watch it play out till it hits take profit or you can manually close the trade in profit.
Usdjpy buy 142.52Usdjpy declined below bottom Bolinger band on 4hr . And walking Bolinger down for past couple days. Yesterday it broke up and now resistance becomes support.
Buy on retest of the bottom Bolinger from the top and see if buying will push price to test blue resistance SCD band on 4 hr around 143.50.
If price manages to close below Bolinger again I will stop out.
XAU/USD 15-Min Chart Breakdown!Market Outlook – 15-Minute Chart Analysis
After reaching an all-time high (ATH), price action retraced to 3193 before finding support and consolidating within a rising wedge pattern inside a defined channel. The confluence of the rising wedge, declining volume, and resistance near the upper boundary of the channel suggests a potential bearish move.
We anticipate a downward push to fill the weekend breakaway gap, as illustrated on the chart. As long as the shiny metal remains below the key resistance at 3216, the bearish outlook remains valid, with the target marked clearly on the chart.
However, if price breaks above the channel’s upper boundary and decisively surpasses the 3216 resistance level, we could see a bullish continuation toward 3236.
⚠️ Reminder: Every trade carries risk. Always apply proper risk management to protect your capital first.
Wishing you a successful and green trading week!
[_] ONENTRYUSD/JPY - ‘2FIB Strategy’ by ONENTRY
Timeframe: 30 Minutes
Session: London & New York
### **Step 1: Identify the Overnight Range**
- Mark the **high** and **low** of the price range between **00:00 - 06:30 (+2GMT)**.
- Wait for a **clear breakout** with a candle *closing* above (for longs) or below (for shorts) this range.
- Wait for at least one reversal candle.
Step 2: Apply Fibonacci Levels**
- After the breakout, use the **Fibonacci retracement tool**:
- **Anchor Point 1:** Start at the *close* of the last impulse candle wick.
- **Anchor Point 2:** Drag to the *start* of the impulse move - first candle wick of the range.
- Key level for entry: **0.5 and** **0.35 retracement Step 3: Trade Execution**
- **Entry:** Enter on a pullback to **0.5** and **0.35 Fib level** after the breakout.
- **Stop Loss :**
- *Long trades:* Below the **low of the breakout candle wick.**
- *Short trades:* Above the **high of the breakout candle wick.**
- **Take Profit Targets:**
- **TP1:** 1.0 Fib
- **TP2:** 1.25 Fib extension.
- TP3: 1.6 FIB extension
- **TP4:** 2.3 Fib extension (runner position).
### **Step 4: Trade Management**
- Move SL to breakeven when price hits **TP1**.
- Close the running trade before midnight.
Always Test The Strategy
.USDJPY NEW (M30) ANALYSIS UPDATES
**🟢 USDJPY Buy Trade Idea (M30 Timeframe)**
**Entry Point:**
- Look for a buy entry around the **142.110 – 141.952** zone. This area has been marked as a strong support zone where price previously reversed.
**Trade Setup:**
- After the price tests this support zone, a potential bullish move is expected.
- Watch for bullish confirmation (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns or a break of short-term resistance) before entering.
**Target Levels:**
1. **Target Point 1:** 142.988
- This is a key resistance zone and a realistic first target.
2. **Target Point 2:** 143.443 – 143.595
- A stronger resistance zone. If price breaks above Target 1 with momentum, you can aim for this level.
**Risk Management:**
- Place a **stop loss** slightly below the support zone (e.g., below 141.900) to protect against false breakouts.
**Market Structure Insight:**
- The chart suggests a potential double bottom forming or a strong bullish bounce from the support, which aligns with the buy setup.
- The recent bullish candles show buying interest returning near the support level.