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USDJPY trade ideas

USDJPY – Liquidity Grab Before Continuation Down **📉 USDJPY – Liquidity Grab Before Continuation Down** 📍 *Update to previous publication* Following further technical analysis, the current price action suggests a **short-term bullish move** on USDJPY — likely acting as a **liquidity grab over previous session highs**. This corrective movement is expected **before price resumes its broader bearish direction**. 🔍 Key observations: * Price may seek short-term buy-side liquidity above recent highs. * Liquidity engineering likely, especially around the **148.800 zone**. * My **bias remains bearish**, but only **after liquidity is taken** and structure confirms a reversal. Waiting for signs of exhaustion or confirmation around the upper FVG to align with the primary short thesis. ---DO NOT USE AS SIGNAL OR ANY OF A KIND-- EMERSON MASSAWE COO | FINANCIAL MARKET ANALYST 6+
Short
by Lordemerson
USDJPY – Strap in For the Central Bank Rollercoaster The next 4 trading days could be crucially important for FX markets, with traders bracing for the outcomes of a variety of different events including several central bank meetings, economic data readings and trade deal/tariff negotiations. No currency pair within the majors is likely to feel the impact of these events more than USDJPY, given that both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Band of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decisions take place within a 9-hour window late on Wednesday evening and early Thursday morning, UK time (Fed 1900 BST Wed, BoJ 0400 BST Thurs). The first move in USDJPY at the start of this week has been higher. This was in response to the announcement of a trade deal between the EU/US, which sees tariffs of 15% on most EU goods imported into the US and has been taken as a success for President Trump and his trade team. (general USD positive). When coupled with the political uncertainty surrounding Japanese PM Ishiba, who is fighting to keep his job, (potential JPY negative) USDJPY has traded from opening levels at 147.51 on Monday up to a high of 148.71 earlier this morning in Asia. Looking forward, both the Fed and BoJ are expected to keep interest rates unchanged. This could make what is said at the accompanying press conferences by Fed Chairman Powell (1930 BST Wed) and BoJ Governor Ueda (0730 BST Thurs) on the timing of their next respective interest rate moves potentially pivotal for the direction of USDJPY into the weekend. Tier 1 US economic data may also be important, with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE Index) due for release at 1330 BST on Thursday, and the next update on the current health of the US labour market due on Friday at 1330 BST in the form of Non-farm Payrolls. Sentiment may also be impacted on Friday by any headlines or social media posts from President Trump regarding trade deals and updates on whether he may extend or hold certain countries to his current deadline of August 1st. Technical Update: Focus on Fibonacci Retracement Resistance at 149.40 On July 16th 2025, USDJPY traded to a price high of 149.19, nearing what might have been considered a resistance level by traders at 149.40. This level is equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the price weakness seen from 158.88 on January 10th down to 139.88, the April 22nd low. Having been capped by this resistance level, a setback in price developed last week. However, this phase of price weakness encountered buying support around the Bollinger mid-average, currently at 146.98, from which fresh attempts at price strength have emerged. As a result, it might be argued that this type of price action is more constructive in nature, especially as since the April 22nd low was posted a pattern of higher price lows and higher price highs has so far materialised, as the chart above shows. That said, with potential for a sustained period of USDJPY volatility in the week ahead let’s consider what may be the important support and resistance levels that could influence the direction of prices moving forward. Potential Resistance Levels: Having previously capped price strength, the 149.40 retracement level may prove to be successful in doing so again, meaning closing breaks above 149.40 might now be required to suggest a further period of price strength. As the chart above shows, if successful breaks above 149.40 do materialise, potential may then turn towards tests of the next resistance at 151.21, the March 28th session high, even 151.65, the higher 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. Potential Support Levels: Having seen it offer support to recent price declines, traders may still be focusing on the 146.98 Bollinger mid-average as an important level that if broken on a closing basis, might lead to a further phase of price weakness. Closing breaks under the 146.98 support while not a guarantee of further declines, could suggest potential to test 145.85, the July 24th session low and rally point, even towards 142.68, the July 1st low. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
USD/JPY) Bullish Trend Read The captionSMC Trading point update Technical analysis of USD/JPY on the 4-hour timeframe, with a focus on a support-resistance structure and trend --- Technical Breakdown: 1. Market Structure: Price is moving in a clear uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows. A recent pullback into a support zone suggests potential for a bullish continuation. 2. Key Zones: Support Zone: Around 147.00–147.50, highlighted in yellow — the area where price recently bounced. Resistance Zone: Around 148.800–149.300, which price is expected to break through. Target Point: Clearly marked at 150.519, aligning with the prior high and a projected bullish extension. 3. EMA (200): The 200 EMA (blue) is at 146.489, far below current price — signaling strong bullish momentum. 4. RSI (14): RSI is at 61.14, showing bullish momentum without being overbought — supportive of further upside. No divergence is noted, which supports trend continuation. 5. Projection (Drawn Path): The chart suggests price may bounce from support, break through resistance, and rally toward 150.519, possibly after a retest of the resistance-turned-support. Mr SMC Trading point --- Trade Idea Summary: Bias: Bullish Entry Zone: Near 147.00–147.50 (support) Confirmation: Bullish candlestick pattern or strong bounce Target: 150.519 Invalidation: Break and close below 146.489 (200 EMA) or sustained move below support zone --- Please support boost 🚀 this analysis)
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
2
0721 Impact of Japanese Senate Elections on Yen Exchange Rate Hello traders, 1. I spent the entire weekend following the Japanese Senate elections, as they will determine the fluctuations of the world's largest financing currency—the yen exchange rate. ★ The results are out, and we are currently in scenario two— the ruling coalition suffered a crushing defeat + Shigeru Ishiba refuses to resign. However, senior figures within the Liberal Democratic Party, such as Taro Aso, have publicly stated that they intend to demand Prime Minister Ishiba's resignation for accountability, increasing the pressure on Ishiba to step down. This means we might see "scenario three"—the USD/JPY exchange rate could potentially break through the 151-155 range. ★ Is this the worst-case scenario? Of course not. The worst-case scenario would be if the "far-right party" that campaigned on the slogan "Japan First" achieved a landslide victory in this election. The most notable winner is a marginal far-right party known as the "Reform Party." The Reform Party originated from a YouTube channel during the pandemic, which spread conspiracy theories about vaccines and "global elite conspiracies." NHK estimates that the Reform Party will win up to 22 seats, whereas three years ago, they had only 1 seat in the Senate and currently have only 3 seats in the House of Representatives. ✔ Let's take a look at this big winner's political proposals—stricter immigration restrictions + opposition to globalism + opposition to radical gender policies + reassessment of decarbonization and vaccine policies + massive tax cuts + increased social welfare spending. This means Japan may implement more "radical tax cuts" combined with aggressive economic stimulus through quantitative easing, leading to a more severe depreciation of the yen, increasing the likelihood of the USD/JPY exchange rate rising to the 160 range. ★ What are the risks of a sharp depreciation of the yen? For Asia, the depreciation of the yen typically drags down other Asian currencies collectively, especially under U.S. tariff pressures, where Asian currencies are already under devaluation pressure. A strong depreciation of the yen would mean Japan is taking other Asian countries along with it off a cliff. We need to pay attention to the "passive" depreciation of the renminbi. Asia will feel the pain, but Europe and the U.S. will also suffer. Theoretically, if the USD/JPY exchange rate surges (indicating a sharp depreciation of the yen), it is very advantageous for arbitrage trading with leverage (because the yen becomes cheaper). However, when the yen experiences a severe depreciation, the situation changes. Let me give you a classic example: After Shinzo Abe returned to power at the end of 2012, he launched the "three arrows" economic policy: unlimited quantitative easing monetary policy + fiscal stimulus + structural reform = artificially lowering the yen exchange rate to stimulate exports (the clear goal was to increase the USD/JPY exchange rate) = rapid depreciation of the yen (from 80 in 2012 to 125 in 2015). So what happened then? — A large number of Japanese institutions sold off U.S. bonds, European bonds, and REITs to cash out. The reason is simple: ✔ Japanese financial institutions (such as GPIF, insurance companies, and banks) hold a large amount of dollar/euro assets. When the yen depreciates, the yen-denominated market value of these foreign currency assets skyrockets. Selling off overseas assets is equivalent to cashing out foreign exchange gains in advance. ✔ The proportion of foreign currency assets is too high → must rebalance. Due to the yen depreciation, a large institution that originally allocated 20% of its total assets to foreign currency assets might see that proportion swell to 30% or 40%. This triggers asset allocation restrictions within pension and insurance funds (ALM principles), necessitating the sale of overseas assets and reallocation to yen-denominated assets. ✔ The yen depreciation phase is usually accompanied by an expansion of the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential. If Japanese institutions hedge their dollar assets, the hedging costs become very high (the costs of hedging through FX swaps and forwards rise), so they must also sell off some assets to reduce exposure. Therefore, in 2013, there was a collective sell-off of U.S. and European bonds. Technically: Daily chart, there is a possible Crab Harmonic Pattern. The Crab Harmonic Pattern From the chart, we can see: The upward move from A to B is labeled as 0.762, which falls within the Fibonacci ratio range of 0.618-0.786 for the A-B leg of the Crab pattern. The downward move from B to C is labeled as 0.668, which also falls within the Fibonacci ratio range of 0.382-0.886 for the B-C leg of the Crab pattern. The upward move from C to D is labeled as 1.112, which corresponds to the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.13-1.272 for the C-D leg of the Crab pattern. Based on these Fibonacci ratio relationships, we can identify this price action pattern as a typical Crab harmonic pattern. This type of pattern often suggests that the price may be about to reverse. On the left 4H chart, the broken trendline is suggesting a new possible downtrend to begin . Make a good use of those support positions, sellers of UJ could find a great trade deal. Follow me to get more update on UJ. GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
Short
by FUNTRADER-Vera
2
USDJPY – Bearish Pressure Builds Near Channel TopUSDJPY is approaching strong resistance around 149.900, a level that has repeatedly triggered price rejections. The ABCD structure suggests the current bullish correction may be nearing completion. If price fails to break above this zone, selling pressure could emerge. On the news front, Japan’s core inflation remains elevated, reinforcing expectations that the BOJ will maintain its current stance. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is losing momentum after a series of mixed economic data releases. Strategy: Consider SELL opportunities if clear reversal signals appear near 149.900. A short-term target lies around the 148.200 support zone. A confirmed break below this level could signal the start of a deeper bearish move.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 29, 2025 EURUSDThe pair is consolidating at 148.500, leaving behind a nearly 1% gain since the start of the week. High Treasury yields (10-year bonds — 4.34%) are supporting demand for the dollar, while the easing of the US-Japan trade conflict is reducing defensive demand for the yen. As part of yesterday's statement by the US Treasury, tariffs on Japanese cars are being reduced to 10%, which improves the outlook for export-oriented corporations, but at the same time reduces investors' need for safe-haven currencies. Despite inflation of 3.7% y/y and rising food costs, the Bank of Japan is likely to keep its rate at 0.5% following its July 30-31 meeting and only revise its CPI forecasts upward. Former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank Hiroshi Nakaso acknowledges that further increases are only possible after assessing the effect of US tariffs, i.e., not before 2026. This scenario reinforces negative real interest rates and a widening yield differential with the US. In addition, the inflow of Japanese investment into foreign bonds has resumed amid confidence in a gradual, rather than sharp, normalization of BOJ policy. Taken together, these factors point to the likelihood of a test of 150.00 in the coming days in the absence of verbal intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Trading recommendation: BUY 148.500, SL 147.900, TP 150.500
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY 4H Analysis : Curve Breakout & Retest Completed + Bullish"Momentum Building Above Retested Demand – Will Bulls Take Control?" 📊 Market Structure Overview: USDJPY has shown a clean bullish structure in recent sessions, supported by a strong demand retest and a steady parabolic curve formation (Black Mind Curve Line). The pair has successfully broken above a major resistance, retested it, and is now holding higher ground—suggesting potential for continued upside if current structure holds. 🧱 Detailed Technical Breakdown: 🔹 1. Demand & Retesting Behavior The chart highlights a key demand zone (green box) that was previously used after a bullish move. Price recently returned to this zone for a clean retest, validating its role as a strong support. This type of retesting behavior is critical in smart money analysis, confirming that accumulation has occurred and sellers have been absorbed. 🔹 2. Major Breakout Confirmation The previous major structure level has been decisively broken to the upside. This level now acts as support, increasing the probability that the bullish move will sustain. 🔹 3. Black Mind Curve Line (Parabolic Structure) A parabolic curved trendline supports the current price action, showing how bulls are gradually gaining momentum. This curve represents buyer interest increasing over time, which often leads to an aggressive breakout when paired with retest confirmation. 📍 Key Price Zones: Type Price Level (Approx.) Description 🔹 Retesting Zone ~148.800 – 149.100 Support zone after major breakout 🔺 Resistance Target (1) ~150.500 Bullish breakout target (short-term) 🔻 Downside Risk (2) ~147.000 – 146.500 Bearish invalidation zone if demand fails 🔹 Full Supply Area ~145.000 – 145.500 Historical supply zone if price fails completely 🔮 Trade Scenarios: ✅ Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation (Primary Bias) Retest is complete, and price is holding above the curve and demand zone. If bullish momentum continues: 📈 Target 1: 150.50 – Near-term resistance and liquidity area 📈 Target 2: 151.20+ – Extension target if buyers dominate Bullish Confirmation: Price must stay above ~149.00 and continue forming higher highs. Entry ideas: Wait for minor consolidation above current price or bullish breakout from mini range. ⚠️ Scenario 2 – Bearish Rejection If price rejects from current level and breaks below the curve and demand zone (~148.80): 📉 First downside target: 147.00 (minor support) 📉 Final bearish target: 145.50 (full supply zone) Bearish Confirmation: Breakdown of curve support and close below the retesting zone with momentum. Such a move would suggest buyers failed, and market may rotate lower. 🧠 Market Sentiment & Psychology: Smart Money Behavior: Demand was filled cleanly and retested, indicating possible institutional interest at that level. Momentum Curve: As shown by the black curve, momentum is rising gradually—this reflects confidence building among buyers. However, price is near psychological resistance (150.00–150.50 zone), where heavy sell orders might be placed. The market is in a decision zone, where confirmation of strength or failure will dictate the next 200–300 pip move. 🎯 Summary: USDJPY is showing a bullish structure supported by: A valid retest of demand A clean breakout of major resistance An ascending parabolic curve If bulls defend the current zone, we may see a powerful continuation toward 150.50+. If price fails to hold above the retest zone, downside risks open toward 147.00 and potentially the full supply at 145.00. 📌 Trade Smart: Wait for price confirmation, manage risk with stop placement below the demand zone or structure lows, and avoid chasing the move.
by GoldMasterTrades
USDJPY Forming Bullish MomemtumUSDJPY is currently exhibiting strong bullish momentum following a clean breakout from a bullish pennant formation on the 2H timeframe. The market formed higher lows and consolidated within a tight structure, creating compression that has now resolved upward. This breakout indicates continuation of the prior bullish impulse, and price is now targeting the key resistance zone between 148.80 and 149.30. This area previously acted as a strong supply zone, and a clean break above could open the path toward 150.00 psychological levels. Fundamentally, the US dollar remains supported by expectations of a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Despite mixed economic data recently, the US economy remains resilient, with GDP growth and labor market data showing strength. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary stance, offering little rate-hike guidance. This divergence in monetary policy keeps the dollar well-bid against the yen. Any further yield differential expansion will continue to support USDJPY to the upside. From a technical perspective, the structure remains bullish as long as price holds above the 147.65–147.50 breakout support. Momentum is aligning well with the current price action, and volume confirmation on the breakout adds confidence to the bullish scenario. Traders should watch the reaction around the 149.00–149.30 zone carefully, as this is the last major barrier before we potentially see continuation toward multi-month highs. Overall, the bullish continuation pattern suggests that USDJPY is preparing for another leg higher. With both technical and fundamental factors aligning, this pair remains a key watch for trend-following traders. Patience and precision remain critical here—watch for potential retests and build positions on confirmation.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
1
USDJPY Short from ResistanceHello Traders In This Chart USDJPY HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today USDJPY analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (USDJPY market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on USDJPY Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Short
by ForexMasters2000
USDJPY A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for USDJPY is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 148.71 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 147.93 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
USDJPY rising wedge capped at 148,90The USDJPY pair is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the falling resistance, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend. Key resistance is located at 149.90, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move. A bearish rejection from 148.90 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 146.93, followed by 146.50 and 146.10 over a longer timeframe. Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 148.93 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 149.75, then 150.20. Conclusion: The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the pair breaks and holds above 148.90. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
USDJPY - 30/7/25 - BoS to a bearish pull backI dont normally trade USDJPY but i see a setup based on my strategy. The price was climbing to take out a previous high on the 4H and Daily TF. But on the hourly there is a clear BoS which suggests that there may be a pull back even though the HTF bias is still bullish. +ve: 1. there is a BoS on the 1 hour chart 2. Equal low liquidity just below which will draw price to this zone 3. Big imbalance below the equal low liquidity -ve: 1. Fed news today may push the market against my trade idea
Short
by AlpenglowTrader