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USDJPY trade ideas

USDJPY | Supply zone rejection 💣📉Price ran out internal liquidity, tapped into a refined supply zone, and showed early signs of distribution. Entry taken post-confirmation at the mitigation of the order block, with a clean R:R toward the next demand zone. 🔹 BOS + Liquidity Grab 🔹 Supply Zone Rejection 🔹 Premium Pricing Entry 🔹 Targeting unmitigated demand below (HTF imbalance) Setup is built around smart money principles—waiting for price to deliver the sell-off. Clean and mechanical. #SMC #USDJPY #SmartMoney #LiquiditySweep #FXTradingClub #MarketStructure
Short
by sam_trades_smc
USDJPYUSDJPY ADVANCED OUTLOOK US10Y=4.348% WEEKLY HIGH 4.436% DXY=97.664$ weekly low 96.871 FED INTEREST RATE HELD STEADY LAST MEETING BY FOMC VOTE 4.25%-4.5% Heads of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair: Jerome H. Powell Term: Powell has served as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System since February 5, 2018. He was reappointed for a second four-year term on May 23, 2022, which is set to run until May 2026. Background: Powell is an American investment banker and lawyer, known for his consensus-building approach and steady leadership during periods of economic uncertainty. He has been a member of the Board of Governors since 2012. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor: Kazuo Ueda Term: Kazuo Ueda has served as Governor of the Bank of Japan since April 2023. He is a distinguished academic with a PhD in economics from MIT and has guided the BOJ through its recent policy normalization and interest rate increases. Key Executive: Koji Nakamura was appointed as the BOJ’s Executive Director overseeing monetary policy and financial markets in April 2025, supporting Governor Ueda in policy implementation. BOJ ( BANK OF JAPAN) 10 year bond yield JP10Y=1.491% HIGH FOR THE WEEK 1.515% BOJ INTEREST RATE =0.5% Interest Rate Differential: US Federal Reserve rate: 4.25%–4.50%.- BOJ 0.5%=3.75%-4% the interest rate differential favor USD LONG Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate: 0.5% comes in higher giving yen a shot advantage ,on monthly TF USDJPY remains bearish. 10-Year Bond Yield Differential: Us10y 4.35% -JP10Y 1.515%= 2.835% The bond yield spread continues to favor the dollar, attracting capital to US assets. Monetary Policy Outlook: The BoJ remains cautious, signaling a slow pace of further tightening. The Fed is expected to maintain higher rates in the near term, though some easing is anticipated later in 2025. Technical and Fundamental Summary Trend: USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend, we will have upside potential if US yields stay elevated and BoJ remains dovish. the monthly TF remains bearish and its something to watch. The USD/JPY pair is expected to remain supported above 145 as long as the interest rate and bond yield differentials favor the US. Upside risks exist if US economic data outperforms or if the BoJ maintains its cautious stance. Downside risks could emerge if the Fed signals faster rate cuts or if there is a significant shift in risk sentiment favoring the yen. In summary: USD/JPY is trading near 146.231, with the US dollar supported by higher interest rates and bond yields relative to Japan. The pair’s direction will remain sensitive to central bank policy signals and global risk sentiment in the coming weeks. 1. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) – Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) is a fundamental theory in international finance and foreign exchange markets. It states that the difference in interest rates between two countries should equal the expected change in their exchange rates over the same period. The concept assumes no arbitrage opportunities and that investors are risk-neutral. Implication: If one country has a higher interest rate, its currency is expected to depreciate by the same amount as the interest rate differential. Carry Trade: If UIP holds, there is no excess return from borrowing in a low-interest currency and investing in a high-interest one, as exchange rate movements offset the interest rate advantage. Covered vs. Uncovered: Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP): Uses forward contracts to hedge exchange rate risk. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP): No hedging; relies on expected spot rates. Example: If US rates are 4.5% and JPY rates are 0.5%, UIP predicts the US dollar will depreciate by 4% against the JAPANESE YEN over the period, making returns equal after accounting for currency changes. Given the USD interest rate of 4.5% and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) interest rate of 0.5%, the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) and Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP) conditions is as follows: 1. Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) UIP states that the expected change in the spot exchange rate between two currencies equals the interest rate differential between those countries. In other words, the currency with the higher interest rate is expected to depreciate relative to the currency with the lower interest rate by roughly the interest rate differential. Interpretation: Since the USD interest rate (4.5%) is higher than the BOJ rate (0.5%), UIP predicts that the USD will depreciate against the JPY by approximately the interest rate differential of 4.0% annually. This means that although USD offers higher yields, investors expect the USD to weaken relative to JPY over the investment horizon, offsetting the higher interest return. 2. Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP) CIP states that the forward exchange rate should adjust to offset the interest rate differential, eliminating arbitrage opportunities by using forward contracts to hedge exchange rate risk. With USD rates higher than JPY rates, the USD is expected to trade at a forward discount relative to JPY, meaning the forward USD/JPY rate will be lower than the spot rate to compensate for the higher USD interest rate. This ensures no arbitrage profit from borrowing in JPY and investing in USD while hedging currency risk. This implies the forward rate is about 151.82 USD/JPY, higher than the spot rate, indicating a forward premium on USD relative to JPY. Note: This suggests USD is trading at a forward premium, which contradicts the earlier interpretation. This discrepancy arises because in USD/JPY quoting, USD is the base currency and JPY the quote currency. The direction of the interest rate differential effect depends on the quoting convention. Important Clarification on Quoting Conventions: USD/JPY is quoted as Japanese yen per 1 US dollar. When the domestic currency is USD, and foreign currency is JPY, the formula applies as above. Since USD interest rates are higher, the JPY is trading at a forward discount relative to USD, meaning the forward USD/JPY rate is higher than the spot rate (USD is expected to appreciate). Summary: Aspect Result / Interpretation Interest Rate Differential USD 4.5% vs. JPY 0.5% → 4.0% differential UIP Prediction USD expected to appreciate against JPY by ~4% (due to quoting) CIP Forward Rate Forward USD/JPY rate > Spot rate (USD at forward premium) Carry Trade Borrow in low-rate JPY, invest in high-rate USD to earn carry Conclusion: With USD interest rate at 4.5% and BOJ rate at 0.5%, the covered interest rate parity (CIP) implies the USD will trade at a forward premium against JPY, i.e., the forward USD/JPY rate will be higher than the spot rate by roughly the interest rate differential. The uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) suggests that investors expect the USD to appreciate against JPY by about 4% over the investment horizon, compensating for the higher USD interest rate. This supports typical carry trade strategies where investors borrow in low-yielding JPY and invest in high-yielding USD assets, profiting from the interest differential. #usdjpy #dollar #yen #jpy
Long
by Shavyfxhub
USD/JPY Possible Bear Scenario🔍 Analysis Summary: USDJPY has failed to close above 146.1 on the weekly for the past 13 candles, showing clear signs of price exhaustion at this level. Price has also tapped into a marked 8HR bearish order block and printed a Daily Pin Bar — a strong reversal signal indicating potential downside. 📍Key Technicals:     •    Resistance Holding: 146.1–146.6 zone     •    Bearish Rejection: Pin Bar off resistance + order block     •    Risk Area (Stop Zone): Above 147.16     •    Target Zones: 144.2 (interim) → 142.4 (swing level) 🛠 Confluence:     •    Order block rejection     •    Multi-week resistance     •    Clean structure with defined R:R     •    Bearish candlestick confirmation 📊 Timeframe: 8HR 📉 Bias: Short 🔐 Risk Management: Proper stop loss in place above structure. Use personal risk limits. ⸻ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This setup is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Always conduct your own analysis and use risk management based on your personal trading plan.
by SlattYSL
back to daily support USDJPY touched 148 this morning ahead of US PMI. According to methodology 1. Resistance Zone: • The 0.125 level (147.820) acted as a resistance point where selling pressure overwhelmed buying pressure, causing the price to reverse downward. Since the price reached 148.000 (just above 147.820), it tested and failed to sustain above this level, reinforcing its role as a barrier. 2. Daily Support •The daily support trend line (yellow box) has been an area to watch as price continues to try and get over the 148 hump. Until then, this pair is going to wedge until a break confirmation.
by SlattYSL
1
Japan PPI slips to 10-month lowThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.45, up 0.10% on the day. Japan's Producer Price Index rose 2.9% y/y in June, down from an upwardly revised 3.3% in May and matching the consensus. This marked the lowest increase since August 2024. On a monthly basis, PPI fell 0.2%, a second straight decline after a 0.1% decline in May. The PPI report signals that underlying inflation pressures are dropping at the producer level, which could delay the BoJ's plans to hike rates and normalize policy. The BoJ has been in a wait-and-see stance since it raised rates in January, exercising caution in a turbulent economic environment. The Bank of Japan held rates in June and meets next on July 31. The FOMC minutes indicated a broad consensus that the Fed will deliver additional rate cuts this year. The pace of those cuts, however, is up for debate. Some members favored cutting as soon as the July meeting, while others were more cautious and wanted to see where inflation and employment were headed. President Trump's tariffs have not boosted inflation so far, but the tariff effect on inflation could be felt in the following months and the Fed remains cautious. Fed Chair Powell has stuck to his guns, pushing back against persistent calls from President Trump to lower rates. Fed policymakers are keeping a close eye on the US labor market, which has softened but not deteriorated. Earlier, unemployment claims dropped to 227 thousand, down from a revised 232 thousand in the previous release and below the consensus of 235 thousand.
by OANDA
USD/JPY bears getting trapToday's main data release was the weekly jobless claims figures, which came out better than expected at 227K vs. 236K eyed, down from 232K the week before. In response, the dollar extended its rebound, and the USD/JPY has turned positive on the day after yesterday's reversal. In recent days the UJ has been pushing higher, thanks to a weakening JPY amid threats of tariffs from the US. But we have also seen some support for the dollar owing to expectations that the tariffs will prove inflationary and that could limit Fed rate cuts. The UJ has been forming a few bullish price signals and now finds itself above the 21-day exponential average. Stops resting above those inverted hammer candles from yesterday and June 23 could be in trouble. Can we see price rally towards those liquidity pools? Support at 146.00 held firm after a brief dip below it. Next support is around 145.00 then 144.25 and 144.00 thereafter. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
by FOREXcom
USDJPY Analysis : Bearish Setup from Reversal Zone + Target⚠️ Overview: The USDJPY 4H chart reveals a smart money-driven bearish setup, unfolding precisely from a major Reversal Zone, which aligns with a key supply area. Price action is now offering high-probability short trade opportunities, supported by structural breaks, clear CHoCHs (Change of Character), and BOS (Breaks of Structure). 🔎 Detailed Technical Breakdown: 🔹 Bearish Pattern + Channel Formation: The pair formed a bearish price pattern earlier, which initiated the previous downtrend. This move developed into a well-formed descending channel, showing controlled distribution from the institutional side. The channel break marked a liquidity grab below previous lows, trapping retail sellers before shifting structure. 🔹 Channel Insider Demand + Breakout: After reaching the Channel Insider Demand, USDJPY made a strong bullish push, causing a Minor BOS — a sign of temporary bullish pressure. However, this move served to rebalance price into a premium zone, which is the current Reversal Zone. This zone lies near previous imbalance/fair value gaps and coincides with a supply structure, making it a high-reaction area. 🔹 Reversal Zone (Premium Area): Price tapped the Reversal Zone and began rejecting aggressively. This reaction indicates the presence of large sellers and order blocks. The current price action now displays a Minor CHoCH, suggesting a short-term bearish shift in order flow. This is a textbook case of premium vs. discount pricing, where price seeks liquidity above recent highs before reversing to more balanced zones. 🔹 Price Flow Expectations (Downside Targets): The first confirmation of bearish continuation will come with a clean break below the Minor CHoCH level (~144.400). Following that, momentum is expected to carry USDJPY toward: 🥇 Target 1: 144.00 – Local support / liquidity pocket 🥈 Target 2: 143.00 – Key psychological & structural support 🥉 Target 3: 142.00–142.50 Zone – Marked as the Next Reversal Zone, which could act as demand This setup remains valid as long as the price remains below 147.200, which is the high of the Reversal Zone. A breakout above this invalidates the bearish thesis. 🧠 MMC (Mind Market Curve) Interpretation: The chart clearly respects Mind Curve Theory structure: CHoCH/BOS confirms internal order flow Reversal zone is placed at a curve top (premium) Support base (discount zone) is yet to be revisited The curve shape guides a possible rounded rejection scenario, pushing price down into the major support, aligning with smart money liquidity grab behavior. 📊 Strategic Insight: This is a classic smart money trap — fake bullish breakout, quick grab of early breakout traders’ stops, followed by a decisive turn from supply. Traders should monitor: Candle structure at current levels Reaction to minor CHoCH zone (~144.400)
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
USD/JPY H4 | Approaching a swing-high resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 147.03 which is a swing-high resistance. Stop loss is at 147.75 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and a swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 145.85 which is an overlap support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
USD/JPY: Still a Safe-Haven Tug of WarUSD/JPY had surged past 147 on the back of Trump’s tariff letter to Japan—but quickly pulled back as risk appetite stabilized and Treasury yields softened. Price action now sits around the low-146s. Technically, the 100-day SMA is providing key support just below 146.00. If bulls hold this level, we could see another push toward 147.20–148.00. On the downside, any surprise from upcoming Fed speakers or Japanese trade negotiations could send the pair testing the 144.00 zone again. Traders are watching Osaka closely, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet Japanese officials at the World Expo, which could shape sentiment fast.
by FDGCapital
1
$UJ (USDJPY) 1HPrice tapped into a 4H FVG (gray zone 146.800–146.300), a high-probability reversal zone when paired with liquidity sweep and break of structure. The bullish internal trendline was cleanly broken, signaling a short-term shift in momentum. Prior to the drop, price ran buy-side liquidity resting above previous highs (marked $$$), fulfilling liquidity objectives before reversing. The move into the 4H-FVG occurred in premium territory, ideal for institutional distribution. As long as price holds below 146.300 (top of the FVG), the bearish leg remains valid. Next liquidity target is around 145.240, where previous sell-side liquidity (lows marked $$$) is resting.
Short
by TopGBanks