Japan PPI slips to 10-month lowThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.45, up 0.10% on the day.
Japan's Producer Price Index rose 2.9% y/y in June, down from an upwardly revised 3.3% in May and matching the consensus. This marked the lowest increase since August 2024. On a monthly basis, PPI fell 0.2%, a second straight decline after a 0.1% decline in May.
The PPI report signals that underlying inflation pressures are dropping at the producer level, which could delay the BoJ's plans to hike rates and normalize policy. The BoJ has been in a wait-and-see stance since it raised rates in January, exercising caution in a turbulent economic environment. The Bank of Japan held rates in June and meets next on July 31.
The FOMC minutes indicated a broad consensus that the Fed will deliver additional rate cuts this year. The pace of those cuts, however, is up for debate. Some members favored cutting as soon as the July meeting, while others were more cautious and wanted to see where inflation and employment were headed. President Trump's tariffs have not boosted inflation so far, but the tariff effect on inflation could be felt in the following months and the Fed remains cautious. Fed Chair Powell has stuck to his guns, pushing back against persistent calls from President Trump to lower rates.
Fed policymakers are keeping a close eye on the US labor market, which has softened but not deteriorated. Earlier, unemployment claims dropped to 227 thousand, down from a revised 232 thousand in the previous release and below the consensus of 235 thousand.
USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY What Next? SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on USDJPY and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 146.88 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 145.35
Safe Stop Loss - 147.68
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDJPY downtrend resistance at 147.30The USDJPY pair is currently trading with a bearish bias, aligned with the broader downward trend. Recent price action shows a retest of the falling resistance, suggesting a temporary relief rally within the downtrend.
Key resistance is located at 147.30, a prior consolidation zone. This level will be critical in determining the next directional move.
A bearish rejection from 147.30 could confirm the resumption of the downtrend, targeting the next support levels at 145.60, followed by 145.10 and 144.65 over a longer timeframe.
Conversely, a decisive breakout and daily close above 147.30 would invalidate the current bearish setup, shifting sentiment to bullish and potentially triggering a move towards 147.70, then 148.14.
Conclusion:
The short-term outlook remains bearish unless the pair breaks and holds above 145.30. Traders should watch for price action signals around this key level to confirm direction. A rejection favours fresh downside continuation, while a breakout signals a potential trend reversal or deeper correction.
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USD/JPY bears getting trapToday's main data release was the weekly jobless claims figures, which came out better than expected at 227K vs. 236K eyed, down from 232K the week before.
In response, the dollar extended its rebound, and the USD/JPY has turned positive on the day after yesterday's reversal.
In recent days the UJ has been pushing higher, thanks to a weakening JPY amid threats of tariffs from the US. But we have also seen some support for the dollar owing to expectations that the tariffs will prove inflationary and that could limit Fed rate cuts.
The UJ has been forming a few bullish price signals and now finds itself above the 21-day exponential average. Stops resting above those inverted hammer candles from yesterday and June 23 could be in trouble. Can we see price rally towards those liquidity pools?
Support at 146.00 held firm after a brief dip below it. Next support is around 145.00 then 144.25 and 144.00 thereafter.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
USDJPY Analysis : Bearish Setup from Reversal Zone + Target⚠️ Overview:
The USDJPY 4H chart reveals a smart money-driven bearish setup, unfolding precisely from a major Reversal Zone, which aligns with a key supply area. Price action is now offering high-probability short trade opportunities, supported by structural breaks, clear CHoCHs (Change of Character), and BOS (Breaks of Structure).
🔎 Detailed Technical Breakdown:
🔹 Bearish Pattern + Channel Formation:
The pair formed a bearish price pattern earlier, which initiated the previous downtrend. This move developed into a well-formed descending channel, showing controlled distribution from the institutional side. The channel break marked a liquidity grab below previous lows, trapping retail sellers before shifting structure.
🔹 Channel Insider Demand + Breakout:
After reaching the Channel Insider Demand, USDJPY made a strong bullish push, causing a Minor BOS — a sign of temporary bullish pressure. However, this move served to rebalance price into a premium zone, which is the current Reversal Zone. This zone lies near previous imbalance/fair value gaps and coincides with a supply structure, making it a high-reaction area.
🔹 Reversal Zone (Premium Area):
Price tapped the Reversal Zone and began rejecting aggressively. This reaction indicates the presence of large sellers and order blocks. The current price action now displays a Minor CHoCH, suggesting a short-term bearish shift in order flow.
This is a textbook case of premium vs. discount pricing, where price seeks liquidity above recent highs before reversing to more balanced zones.
🔹 Price Flow Expectations (Downside Targets):
The first confirmation of bearish continuation will come with a clean break below the Minor CHoCH level (~144.400). Following that, momentum is expected to carry USDJPY toward:
🥇 Target 1: 144.00 – Local support / liquidity pocket
🥈 Target 2: 143.00 – Key psychological & structural support
🥉 Target 3: 142.00–142.50 Zone – Marked as the Next Reversal Zone, which could act as demand
This setup remains valid as long as the price remains below 147.200, which is the high of the Reversal Zone. A breakout above this invalidates the bearish thesis.
🧠 MMC (Mind Market Curve) Interpretation:
The chart clearly respects Mind Curve Theory structure:
CHoCH/BOS confirms internal order flow
Reversal zone is placed at a curve top (premium)
Support base (discount zone) is yet to be revisited
The curve shape guides a possible rounded rejection scenario, pushing price down into the major support, aligning with smart money liquidity grab behavior.
📊 Strategic Insight:
This is a classic smart money trap — fake bullish breakout, quick grab of early breakout traders’ stops, followed by a decisive turn from supply.
Traders should monitor:
Candle structure at current levels
Reaction to minor CHoCH zone (~144.400)
USD/JPY H4 | Approaching a swing-high resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 147.03 which is a swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 147.75 which is a level that sits above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 145.85 which is an overlap support that aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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USD/JPY: Still a Safe-Haven Tug of WarUSD/JPY had surged past 147 on the back of Trump’s tariff letter to Japan—but quickly pulled back as risk appetite stabilized and Treasury yields softened. Price action now sits around the low-146s.
Technically, the 100-day SMA is providing key support just below 146.00. If bulls hold this level, we could see another push toward 147.20–148.00. On the downside, any surprise from upcoming Fed speakers or Japanese trade negotiations could send the pair testing the 144.00 zone again. Traders are watching Osaka closely, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet Japanese officials at the World Expo, which could shape sentiment fast.
$UJ (USDJPY) 1HPrice tapped into a 4H FVG (gray zone 146.800–146.300), a high-probability reversal zone when paired with liquidity sweep and break of structure.
The bullish internal trendline was cleanly broken, signaling a short-term shift in momentum.
Prior to the drop, price ran buy-side liquidity resting above previous highs (marked $$$), fulfilling liquidity objectives before reversing.
The move into the 4H-FVG occurred in premium territory, ideal for institutional distribution.
As long as price holds below 146.300 (top of the FVG), the bearish leg remains valid.
Next liquidity target is around 145.240, where previous sell-side liquidity (lows marked $$$) is resting.
USDJPY – Key Support Bounce with Macro TailwindsUSDJPY is bouncing off a key trendline and 61.8% Fib zone (143.25–143.60) with confluence across multiple JPY crosses (EURJPY, AUDJPY, CADJPY). This area has historically triggered strong upside momentum, and the current setup aligns with both technical structure and macro drivers.
📊 Fundamentals Supporting the Move:
✅ US Yields Stable: US10Y is holding above 4.20%, keeping USDJPY supported. If yields push back toward 4.30%, expect USDJPY to retest 145.30 and potentially 147.80.
✅ BoJ Dovish: Japan shows no shift in policy. Despite weak Tankan data, BoJ remains patient, and no meaningful rate hike or YCC change is expected soon.
✅ USD Macro Resilience: Core PCE held firm at 2.6%. Focus now shifts to ISM Services PMI (Wed) and NFP (Fri). Markets are still pricing a soft landing – supporting risk-on and a stronger USD.
✅ JPY as a Fading Safe Haven: Even with geopolitical headlines (Trump tariff tensions, Taiwan, Middle East), JPY demand remains weak. Traders are favoring USD and Gold over JPY as risk hedges.
⚠️ Risks to Watch:
Dovish US Data Surprise: Weak NFP or ISM could drag yields down and trigger USDJPY reversal.
Verbal or Actual BoJ Intervention: If we approach 148.50–150, Japan may step in again.
Geopolitical Escalation: Any sharp risk-off could trigger safe haven demand for JPY, though this has underperformed recently.
🔎 Correlation Dynamics:
📈 USDJPY is leading JPY crosses like EURJPY and AUDJPY. The recent bounce started simultaneously across the JPY complex, with USDJPY slightly ahead.
📉 If US yields drop or risk sentiment shifts, USDJPY may lag gold or bonds but eventually catch up.
🧠 Trading Plan:
📍 Entry Zone: 143.30–143.60 (trendline + Fib confluence)
🎯 Target 1: 145.30 (38.2% Fib)
🎯 Target 2: 147.80 (channel resistance)
🛑 Invalidation: Daily close below 141.50 with US yields breaking down
📅 Upcoming Events to Watch:
Wed July 3: ISM Services PMI (key for USD reaction)
Fri July 5: US Non-Farm Payrolls + Average Hourly Earnings
JPY Risk: Verbal intervention possible near 148+
🧭 Summary:
USDJPY is positioned for a bullish continuation, backed by:
Rising yields
Resilient US macro
Weak JPY fundamentals
Technical structure respecting trendline support
Short-term traders can target the 145–147.80 range ahead of NFP, with a tight eye on yield and risk sentiment.
📌 If this analysis helps, drop a like and follow for more real-time macro-technical breakdowns. Stay nimble ahead of NFP! 🧠📈
Smart 15-Min Entry on USDJPY – Clear Plan with 2.33 R/R📢 Hey Guys;
I've placed a buy limit order on USDJPY at a key support level.
🔵 Entry: 145.956
🔴 Stop Loss: 145.743
🟢 Targets:
• TP1: 146.069
• TP2: 146.232
• TP3: 146.468
📐 Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.33
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USDJPY Will Go Down! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 146.736.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 144.416 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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USDJPY H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 147.36, a pullback support that aligns closely with the 161.8% Fib retracement.
Our take profit is set at 145.99, a pullback support.
The stop loss is placed at 148.70, above the 161.8% Fib extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USD/JPY) back down Trend Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen) on the 3-hour timeframe, anticipating a rejection from a descending trendline resistance and a move down toward key support levels.
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Analysis Overview:
Trend Bias: Bearish correction expected
Structure: Price is reacting at a descending trendline, which has held as resistance on multiple occasions.
Indicators:
EMA 200 (144.756): Price is currently above, but projected to break below it.
RSI (14): Overbought at ~74, signaling potential for a reversal.
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Key Technical Components:
1. Descending Trendline Resistance:
Price is approaching/has touched a well-respected downtrend line, marked by three strong rejections (red arrows).
This trendline has consistently capped bullish moves, indicating strong seller interest.
2. Bearish Reversal Expectation:
The projected path suggests a potential fake breakout or double-top, followed by a steep decline.
A two-stage drop is anticipated, with price first targeting the EMA 200 zone, then extending lower.
3. Target Points:
First target: Around 145.244, near EMA 200.
Final target: 143.048, aligning with the key support zone (highlighted in yellow), where price previously bounced.
4. RSI (14):
Currently overbought (73.29), signaling a likely retracement.
Prior peaks at this level led to notable corrections.
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Trade Setup Idea:
Parameter Level
Entry Near current price (~146.85) if bearish pattern confirms
Stop-Loss Above trendline (~147.30–147.50)
Target 1 145.24 (EMA 200 zone)
Target 2 143.05 (Support zone)
This setup offers a high-probability short opportunity if resistance holds.
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Risk Factors:
Upcoming economic events could trigger volatility (news icon marked).
A clean breakout and close above the trendline (~147.50+) would invalidate this bearish thesis.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary:
The analysis suggests a potential USD/JPY reversal from a descending trendline, supported by overbought RSI and prior rejections. The bearish projection targets a move toward 143.048, following a dip below the EMA 200 level at 145.244.
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USDJPY – A Bull Trap in the Making?USDJPY has just broken above the descending trendline but stalled right at the confluence resistance near 147.100 – a former strong distribution zone. Although buyers have pushed the price higher, the current price structure is sketching a potential double top pattern, signaling a possible exhaustion of the bullish momentum.
If this pattern confirms and price breaks below the FVG support zone around 145.161, then 144.300 will likely be the next target – a level that previously halted price before the recent rally. Price action should be closely monitored here, as a breakdown below 145.161 could be an early reversal signal.
Disappointing Nonfarm data has pushed bond yields lower and weakened the USD, reinforcing expectations of an earlier Fed rate cut. If this week’s CPI also comes in lower than expected, USDJPY could sharply drop from the current top.