USDJPY Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my USDJPY analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
USDJPY trade ideas
USDJPY Technical Analysis – GTE VIP Buy SetupUSDJPY Technical Analysis – GTE VIP Buy Setup
Price tapped into key support around 142.29 and rejected strongly with a bullish engulfing on the 1H chart. This level has held as strong demand multiple times.
We entered a buy expecting price to break through the descending trendline, with confluence from stochastic oversold and bullish divergence building.
If momentum holds, we anticipate a breakout to 145.43 and beyond as clean traffic lies above.
Classic reversal play — support bounce + trendline breakout in progress.
USDJPY: Pullback From Resistance 🇺🇸🇯🇵
There is a high chance that USDJPY will retrace
from the underlined blue resistance cluster.
As a confirmation signal, I spotted a double top pattern
on that on an hourly time frame.
Closest support - 145.1
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Bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 141.80
1st Support: 140.13
1st Resistance: 145.44
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USDJPY BREAKOUT BULLISH PATTERN Technical Pattern Analysis
Current Trend:
USD/JPY has shown a strong bullish structure, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. This indicates increasing buying pressure and positive momentum.
Possible Bullish Patterns Observed:
Ascending Triangle: This is a bullish continuation pattern often indicating that buyers are gaining strength before a breakout.
Bullish Flag: A short-term consolidation that generally resolves in the direction of the previous trend (upward).
Breakout Above Resistance: Recent candles show breakout attempts above key resistance zones, validating bullish sentiment.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate Support: 144.50–145.00
1st Resistance / Target Zone: 146.400
2nd Resistance / Target Zone: 147.900
Final Resistance / Target Zone: 150.200
USDJPYUSD/JPY Interest Rate Differential and Upcoming Economic Data (May 2025)
Current Interest Rate Differential
Federal Reserve (US): 4.25%–4.50% (held steady on May 7, 2025).
Bank of Japan (BoJ): 0.50% (unchanged since March 2025).
Differential: ~3.75–4.00%, favoring the USD.
This wide gap reflects the Fed’s cautious stance amid tariff-driven inflation risks and the BoJ’s reluctance to hike further due to trade-related growth concerns.
Upcoming Economic Data and Events
United States
CPI Inflation (May 13–14):
Core CPI YoY (Apr): Forecast 2.8% (prev. 2.8%).
Headline CPI YoY (Apr): Forecast 2.4% (prev. 2.6%).
Impact: Sticky inflation could delay Fed rate cuts, supporting USD strength. A downside surprise may revive rate-cut expectations, weakening the dollar.
GDP Growth Revision (May 29):
Q1 GDP growth prelim: -0.3% (QoQ annualized).
Impact: A downward revision could pressure USD if stagflation fears grow.
Fed Policy Signals:
The Fed emphasized data dependency, with markets pricing no cuts until July 2025
Japan
BoJ Policy Outlook (May 8):
The BoJ lowered its FY 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% (vs. 1.0% in Jan) and core inflation to 2.2% (vs. 2.7% in Jan).
Impact: Weak growth and inflation outlooks reduce BoJ’s scope for rate hikes, keeping JPY vulnerable.
Trade Data (May 9):
Exports YoY (Apr): Forecast 0.5% (prev. 12.4%).
Imports YoY (Apr): Forecast -6.0% (prev. -4.3%).
Impact: Weak exports (due to U.S. tariffs on Japanese autos) could further dampen growth, pressuring JPY.
Geopolitical Risks:
U.S.-China trade tensions and 25% U.S. tariffs on Japanese auto exports threaten Japan’s economy, reinforcing BoJ caution.
Directional Bias for USD/JPY
Short-term (May 2025): Bullish. The Fed’s delayed cuts and BoJ’s dovish tilt favor USD strength. USD/JPY is testing ¥162.50, with resistance near ¥165.00.
Risks:
Bearish JPY: BoJ’s growth/inflation downgrades, delayed hikes.
Bullish JPY: Surprise BoJ hawkishness or U.S. recession fears.
Conclusion:
USD/JPY remains biased upward due to persistent interest rate differentials, BoJ dovishness, and Japan’s trade risks. However, weak U.S. GDP or a BoJ policy surprise could trigger corrections. Monitor U.S. CPI and BoJ guidance for near-term catalysts.
USD_JPY WILL GO DOWN|SHORT|
✅USD_JPY will be retesting a
Resistance level soon around 147.500
From where I am expecting a bearish reaction
With the price going down but we need
To wait for a reversal pattern to form
Before entering the trade, so that we
Get a higher success probability of the trade
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TOP DOWN ANALYSIS ON USDJPY 4HR TIMFRAME BIASOn the 4hr timeframe, price created divergence right at the major zone indicating reversal and price went further to break the 4hr trendline signaling bullish and rhyming with the monthly/weekly/daily established bullish bias hence we established a possible entry long on the USDJPY pair.
USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Bank Bullish Heist Plan (Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Place buy limit orders most recent or swing, low level for Pullback entries.
Stop Loss 🛑:
📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 4H timeframe (138.500) Day/Swing trade basis.
📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 147.500 (or) Escape Before the Target
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Yen Firms with BoJ CautionThe Japanese yen strengthened to around 143.6 per dollar on Thursday, recovering as rising global trade uncertainty stimulated demand for gold. The move followed President Trump’s announcement of a deal with a “big” country, reportedly the UK, and his refusal to cut tariffs on China ahead of U.S.-China talks in Switzerland. U.S.-Japan negotiations continue, with Tokyo aiming to finalize a bilateral deal by June. Meanwhile, BoJ minutes showed policymakers remain open to rate hikes if inflation targets are met, though they flagged external risks from U.S. trade policy.
Resistance stands at 145.90, with further levels at 146.75 and 149.80. Support is found at 139.70, then 137.00 and 135.00.
USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.The chart you shared shows the USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar to Japanese Yen) pair on the 1-hour timeframe from TradingView. Here are the key points:
1. Current Price: The pair is trading at approximately 143.657, showing a positive change of +1.243 (0.87%).
2. Support Zone: There is a highlighted gray box at the lower part, indicating a recent support or demand zone around the 143.292 level.
3. Resistance Level: A blue horizontal line is marked at 144.225, labeled as the target. This suggests that the price might move upwards to this resistance level.
4. Price Action: The green arrow indicates a potential bullish move towards the target, implying a buy signal or a continuation of the upward trend.
5. Technical Analysis: It appears the pair has bounced from the support zone and is gaining momentum toward the resistance.
Would you like a more detailed analysis or interpretation of the trading setup?
USDJPY 15 MINUTEThis chart displays a 15-minute candlestick chart of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) with a clearly marked trade setup. Here's a quick breakdown of what it illustrates:
Buy Zone: Marked in the orange shaded area around the price of $3,372.194 to $3,364.121.
Entry Point: Near the lower edge of the buy zone.
Target: Around $3,393.363, marked as "target successful".
Risk-to-Reward Setup: The green area represents the profit target; the red area below is the stop-loss zone.
Arrow Path: Indicates the anticipated price movement from the buy zone up to the target level.
This is a classic bullish reversal setup after a price drop, aiming for a retracement or continuation upward.
Would you like help analyzing this trade setup or suggestions for improving the strategy?
usdjpy what next?After a corrective move within a rising channel, USDJPY has broken structure and is now forming a potential bearish flag pattern. The pair recently broke below the main ascending channel and is currently retesting it from below—signaling a possible continuation to the downside.
📌 Key Observations:
Major ascending channel violated
Retest forming a minor bear flag
Price struggling to reclaim previous support turned resistance
Potential drop toward the 141.000 – 139.000 zone
The bearish momentum may resume if price rejects current levels and breaks the minor flag to the downside. Confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., H1 or M15) would strengthen the setup.
#USDJPY #ForexAnalysis #BearishFlag #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #SmartMoney
USDJPY InsightWelcome to All Subscribers!
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Key Points
At the May FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, in line with market expectations. The Fed reiterated its stance of responding based on lagging economic data.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated during the press conference that the goals of price stability and full employment may come into conflict, and that he cannot confidently say what the appropriate policy path will be moving forward. His remarks implied increased uncertainty due to tariffs.
A high-level U.S.–China meeting is scheduled to take place over two days starting May 10. U.S. Treasury official Scott Bessent commented that this meeting is just the beginning and it’s unclear how things will unfold from here.
Key Economic Events This Week
May 8: Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision
USD/JPY Chart Analysis
The USD/JPY pair is gradually showing increased volatility, with signs of a broader trend forming. In the short term, downward pressure appears dominant, with expectations that the pair may decline toward the 140 level. However, a rebound is likely to follow, potentially pushing the pair back up toward the 144–146 range.
USDJPY Technical Outlook: SMC and Wyckoff Analysis 5 May 2025As of May 5, 2025, the USDJPY pair is trading around ¥144.30, reflecting a 0.40% decrease from the previous session. This movement follows the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates while revising growth forecasts downward, leading to a depreciation of the yen.
Technical Analysis:
Support and Resistance Levels: The pair is approaching a significant support zone near ¥143.00. A break below this level could expose the next support at ¥141.00, while resistance is observed around ¥148.00.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is nearing oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
Smart Money Concepts:
Order Blocks: A bullish order block is identified between ¥142.50 and ¥143.00, indicating potential institutional buying interest.
Liquidity Pools: Liquidity above the recent highs near ¥148.00 may attract price action if bullish momentum resumes.
Wyckoff Method Perspective:
Accumulation Phase: The recent price action suggests a possible accumulation phase, with the pair trading within a range between ¥140.00 and ¥146.00.
Spring Test: A false breakout below ¥143.00 could serve as a spring, leading to potentially high buying volume.
Fundamental Factors:
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy: The BOJ's decision to keep rates unchanged, despite lowering growth forecasts, has contributed to yen weakness.
Federal Reserve Outlook: Market participants are closely watching the ISM Services PMI later today and the upcoming FOMC meeting for signals on US monetary policy, which could impact USDJPY dynamics.
Conclusion:
The USDJPY pair is at a critical juncture, with technical indicators pointing to potential support near ¥143.00. Traders should monitor price action around this level for signs of accumulation or further downside. Fundamental developments, particularly central bank policies, will play a crucial role in determining the pair's direction in the near term.
USDCHF H4 I Bearish DropBased on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 144.30, a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit is set at 142.61, an overlap support.
The stop loss is set at 145.49, a pullback resistance.
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