USDMXN trade ideas
USDMXN pusible raly after an rising wedgeHello friends, today I am loaded haha, I have been analyzing this pair for a couple of days and it is being fulfilled as the theory says I had an analysis here before the price breaks but the platform hid it from me again, now although it is true I I already have a trade but the bullish raly is just beginning.
Well, we have an accumulation that takes months, so I think there is a possibility that the price will touch my take profit.
I think everything is explained in the graph, but if not, tell me in the comments.
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USDMXN bottom of rangeInvestors are back from holiday, labor day is over, there is today some jewish holiday I do not know the impact but anyway the stock market will be open today, maybe a bit slower than it should because of that holiday. We'll see what happens, but unless something insane goes on I see no reason for this currency pair to suddenly go crazy. It has been in a boring range for a few months and by now it has repeated the same price action a bunch of times.
I don't do this often, I put a couple of indicators on the chart, mostly because of the pretty colors. They do not say anything special, simply there is:
- The MACD (and EMAS) crossing. Over and over. The MACD cross is quicker to visualize than the price bottoming before going up, which never looks the same
- The "Max Gain" (and ROC to an extent) showing in a quick single look the expected upside, without having to measure 1 by 1 every previous upswing
We can look for 1 to 1.5%, which is the 2 day ATR. This is very small, and because of spreads risk will be at least 10% bigger and reward smaller by a few percent. Risk to reward gets crushed. It should be at least of 3 (2.7 left after spreads). And be careful not entering late in the evening as spreads widen massively.
I don't like this very much because of the small nature of it, so it should be easy to let it come to us. Really wouldn't care missing out. It could go straight up 2, 3% or more which would make it more interesting.
Not only do spreads decimate the payout assuming this is actually good, but you won't make any kind of decent money, the only way would be to use serious gear and that's really a bad idea.
I see no reason for the odds not to be 50/50, or at least 1/3, and since it is possible to get a reward greater than twice the risk, plus it's september and I think it can go well past expectations.
Really doesn't get me excited, it's just so small and expensive and mediocre. You guys like this kind of stuff?
USDMXN LongThe peso has returned to a key level between the $19.20 & $19.80 price point. Previously this level has held as a point of support and looks to continue doing so.
We will target previous highs for our take profit level. We will be looking for price to rise to the 20.1775 which once held as a key resistance level. If we are able to break this area we will look for price to climb back to last month's high around $20.3225~$20.4000.
USDMXN Possible Long OpportunitiesUSDMXN completed a deep reversal completing a bullish bat pattern on the 4 hour timeframe. Not only that, but reacted very nicely to an area of daily demand. Long opportunities could be possibly taken from this area as long as price holds above the demand area and starts shifting structure to the bullish side. Possible profit targets are marked in the chart.
USDMXN In August the Mexican peso weakened from 19.848 to 20.071 against the US dollar. Economists at MUFG Bank expect MXN to depreciate from the 4Q onwards amid tapering cycle in the United States.
Mounting COVID-19 cases and deaths with Delta variant, and sluggish vaccination rollout in Mexico
“Assuming that FED tapering starts later this year and it will carry on at a gradual pace during next year, we see room for moderate MXN appreciation in the near-term as market fears over more aggressive tapering ease.”
“However, the pace of MXN appreciation tends to be limited by the more concerning COVID-19 scenario in Mexico. The pace of vaccination continues to be sluggish, the number of cases is at record levels and deaths have been increasing as well.”
“We now expect the MXN to be at around 20.150 at the end of September.”
“From 4Q onwards, there is room for gradual MXN depreciation driven first by the beginning of Fed tapering, followed by the expectation of the FED funds rate hikes that might start later next year/early in 2023.”