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U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso

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USDMXN trade ideas

USD/MXN Breaking Down Below Key Trend LineChart Analysis: The USD/MXN pair has definitively broken below the rising trendline (black), suggesting a potential shift in the bullish structure. The price is now consolidating below the trendline near 20.14, with the next support levels coming into focus. 1️⃣ Trendline Break: The drop below the rising trendline indicates a weakening of the previous bullish momentum. Traders may now look for confirmation of a further bearish move. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): At 20.19, price is hovering just below this level, reinforcing bearish pressure. 200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 18.64, this serves as the next significant support if selling intensifies. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 47.12, trending lower but not yet oversold, leaving room for additional downside. MACD: Negative and flattening, indicating continued bearish momentum with no signs of reversal yet. What to Watch: If the pair continues lower, the next key support zone lies near 19.80–20.00, followed by the 200-day SMA at 18.64. For bullish recovery, the price would need to reclaim the broken trendline and move back above the 50-day SMA at 20.19. The USD/MXN trendline break shifts the focus to downside risks, with key support zones and momentum indicators suggesting further bearish potential. -MW
by FOREXcom
USD/MXN Holding the Rising Trendline, Key Resistance in SightChart Analysis: The USD/MXN pair continues to respect the rising trendline (black), maintaining its bullish structure. Price action remains constructive as it hovers near 20.25, with a key resistance level around 20.80. 1️⃣ Rising Trendline Support: The trendline, initiated from mid-June lows, has consistently supported price dips. This upward trajectory remains intact for now. 2️⃣ Key Resistance Zone: The 20.80 level (horizontal black line) marks a critical resistance area, where price struggled to break higher earlier this month. A move above this could signal renewed bullish momentum. 3️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): Price remains above the 50-day SMA at 20.12, confirming short-term bullish strength. 200-day SMA (red): The longer-term bullish trend remains intact, with the 200-day SMA rising steadily around 18.55. 4️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: Hovering near 51.41, signaling neutral momentum. Traders may watch for a push into overbought territory if price challenges resistance. MACD: The MACD remains flat, with the signal line just above zero, suggesting indecision in short-term momentum. What to Watch: A sustained break above 20.80 could signal continuation of the bullish trend and bring new highs into focus. If the rising trendline fails, traders may monitor the 50-day SMA near 20.12 as a key support level. USD/MXN remains bullish within its rising trendline structure, with the 20.80 resistance level standing as a critical hurdle. Momentum and price action suggest a key decision point ahead. -MW
by FOREXcom
Why Is the Mexican Peso So Liquid?Why Is the Mexican Peso So Liquid? The Mexican peso, a dynamic player in the global forex market, embodies a unique blend of historical resilience and modern financial attractiveness. As we delve into the reasons behind its impressive liquidity, this article offers valuable insights for traders and investors eager to understand the intricacies and opportunities presented by one of Latin America's most prominent currencies. The Mexican Peso: An Overview The Mexican peso, a currency with a rich history and a significant presence in the global market, often surprises investors asking, “How much is the Mexican peso worth?” when they discover it’s one of the strongest emerging market currencies around. Its performance in the forex market is closely tied to macroeconomic indicators, particularly those from the United States, including benchmark interest rates. The currency has benefitted from Mexico's nearshoring boom and soaring remittances, alongside a healthy fiscal position, contributing to its appeal to investors and traders worldwide. As the most traded currency in Latin America, the Mexican peso’s popularity underscores its importance in the regional and global financial landscape. With this background in mind, let’s take a look at 3 reasons the Mexican peso is so liquid. Reason 1: Strong Economic Fundamentals The liquidity of the Mexican peso today is closely tied to Mexico's strong economic fundamentals. In 2023, Mexico's economy has shown resilience and growth, marked by a significant increase in exports. This export-driven growth, reaching a record high, is supported by Mexico's robust trade relationship with the United States, making it the US's top trade partner with nearly $600 billion in two-way trade over the first nine months of 2023. Inflation control is another pillar of Mexico's economic stability. After peaking at 8.7% in 2022, inflation has been effectively managed, witnessing a decrease to around 4.26% in October 2023. This decline demonstrates the successful monetary policies of the Bank of Mexico, indicating a resilient economic environment. A key indicator of this economic improvement is in a comparison of the US dollar currency to the Mexican peso. In July 2023, the peso reached a low of 16.62 pesos per dollar vs a peak of 25.7 pesos per dollar in April 2020, showcasing its strongest performance in recent times. This strength is a direct reflection of investor confidence in the Mexican economy and can be observed in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. Additionally, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico has reached new heights, with almost $33 billion recorded in the first nine months of 2023. The announcement of significant investments, like Tesla's planned "gigafactory" in Nuevo León, underscores the international business community's interest in Mexico, contributing to the peso's liquidity. Reason 2: Active Participation by the Central Bank The liquidity of the Mexican peso is significantly reinforced by the active role of Banco de México, the country’s central bank. The bank's monetary policy plays a crucial role in maintaining the attractiveness of the peso, which in turn contributes to its liquidity. One of the key strategies employed by Banco de México is its effective management of the overnight interbank funding rate. Throughout 2023, Banco de México maintained a consistent approach to this rate, reflecting its commitment to financial stability. For instance, the target for the overnight interbank funding rate has been kept unchanged at 11.25% for several periods in 2023, following a series of incremental increases in the preceding years. These decisions are a reflection of the bank's responsiveness to economic conditions and its aim to balance growth with price stability. Another important aspect of the bank's policy is the accumulation and management of international reserves. These reserves, which exceeded USD 203 billion as of October 2023, provide a buffer against external economic shocks, helping the country maintain economic stability in the face of global volatility. This stability is essential for sustaining the peso's liquidity, as it reassures investors about the country's economic resilience. Reason 3: High Trading Volume and Global Interest The history of the Mexican peso reveals a journey of economic reforms and policy shifts that have shaped its current state in the global market. Over the years, these changes have been contributing to stabilisation and reliability of the peso, making it a more attractive option for traders and investors and boosting its trading volume. This high trading volume creates a virtuous cycle that may further enhance the currency's liquidity. More trading volume signifies a greater number of transactions and a broader investor base, which, in turn, increases the currency's visibility and appeal in the global market. As more traders and investors engage with the peso, it may lead to rate stabilisation and smoother market movements, which are key factors for a liquid market. Additionally, the factors previously discussed, such as the strong economic fundamentals and the active role of the central bank, contribute to this cycle. A growing economy, along with effective monetary policies, boosts investor confidence. In response, more traders and investors are drawn to the currency, thereby increasing its trading volume and liquidity, and the cycle repeats. The Bottom Line In conclusion, the Mexican peso's resilience and appeal are clear indicators of its significance in the forex market. With its robust economic fundamentals, proactive central bank policies, and high trading volume attracting global interest, the peso stands as an attractive currency for traders and investors. For those looking to engage with this dynamic currency, opening an FXOpen account offers a gateway to the vibrant world of Mexican peso trading, providing an opportunity to participate in the market's ongoing growth and vitality. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
8
USDMXN To 21.00 By Year End (Read Description)USDMXN had been trading in a tight range in a series of higher lows and lower highs. This is known as an 'ascending triangle' pattern. Now, I dont actually trade triangle patterns, but my trade idea is based off exploiting this patterns flaws to facilitate a trade to the upside. If you look at the NOV 26th Bullish candle that broke the 20.70 highs, there were most likley pending market orders to buy the market on a breakout. Since then it had retraced back into the range. Now my attention turns to the 20.06 low where I suspect there are resting sell-stops of traders who are LONG. Should price trade to that level and reject, I plan to buy as counterparty to those willing sellers at 20.06. Stop-loss at 19.75 Take profit at 21.00
Long
by Randal-TraderState
2
USDMXN: Trumpconomics impact the Mexican PesoThe announcement of possible 25% across-the-board tariffs by US President-elect Donald Trump has generated trade tensions with Mexico, momentarily affecting the Mexican peso. However, after a conversation between Claudia Sheinbaum and Trump, the USDMXN showed recovery, appreciating almost 1%, reversing previous losses. Mexico's Minister of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, highlighted that the tariffs would not only negatively affect Mexico, but also the US economy, especially the automotive sector, where an increase in production costs and prices for consumers is expected. This uncertainty could continue to affect the volatility of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar, depending on the outcome of these negotiations. Additionally, these measures, if implemented, are expected to increase inflation and reduce economic growth in both the U.S. and Mexico, which could further pressure the exchange rate of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar. Looking at the technical aspect, there is a lot of selling pressure in the 20.71 pesos per dollar zone and this has caused the stock to depreciate to 20.26. There is currently a very strong zone around 20 pesos, so it would not be normal for the peso to depreciate further despite Trump's aggressive policies. The Mexican president does not seem to want to sit idly by and her response could be equivalent, hence the value recovered timidly. Since the Asian session these developments have not been enough and hence the continuation of the peso's sell-off in favor of the dollar. RSI highlights as slightly oversold. Currently, the mid-bell zone (POC) is located around 20.426, so there could be a timid recovery to that price zone. Its current support zone is located at 20.253, so if this zone is respected, a recovery of the peso could be seen. Additionally, there has been a movement of the 50-average in the direction of the 100-average, which highlights this bearish pressure. If the crossover does not occur, it would be an incentive for long traders. In conclusion, speculation on tariffs adds volatility to the USDMXN pair, and traders should continue to monitor the development of these trade tensions and their implications for the T-MEC (Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada) and the bilateral economic relationship. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
USD/MXN Soars Above 20.81266 Amid Tariff TensionsThe USD/MXN pair has surged above 20.81266, marking its weakest level since March 2022. This sharp movement is driven by Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, which poses significant risks to Mexico's economy, particularly affecting the crucial auto sector. With the US accounting for over 83% of Mexico's exports, these tariffs could disrupt the trade balance and amplify peso volatility, leading to increased investor uncertainty and potential capital outflow. The Mexican peso has depreciated approximately 20% this year, compounded by concerns over fiscal expansion and a robust US dollar. Retaliatory tariff measures suggested by President Claudia Sheinbaum could further complicate the trade landscape, exacerbating tensions. Traders should closely monitor developments in US-Mexico trade policies and potential domestic policy responses in Mexico. Given the prevailing uncertainty, market participants may seek safer assets, which could further impact USD/MXN movements
by tastyfx
Hawkish signals??? What drove Kiwi rally? The New Zealand dollar staged an unexpected rally following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) latest interest rate decision. Analysts struggled to pinpoint a definitive hawkish signal in the central bank’s messaging. Technical factors did support the rally, as NZD/USD broke above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages. However, sellers have tempered the upward movement at this level, signaling caution following the sharp rise. One potential catalyst for the rally could be RBNZ's brief acknowledgment of potential upward price pressures linked to Trump tariffs. ANZ Bank, although forecasting a 25bps rate cut at the next RBNZ meeting, did lift their odds of a 50bp cut in February, given the Governor’s comments. However, the Central Bank explicitly downplayed concerns over these factors impacting its policy trajectory.
by BlackBull_Markets
Tariff Man drives peso to 16-month low Selling the currency of the U.S.'s largest trading partner, the Mexican peso, could be one of the clearest Trump trades. The Mexican peso slid over 2% on Tuesday, now trading above 20.8 per dollar for the first time since July 2022. Posting on his Truth Social platform, Trump said one of his first executive orders will be to impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the US from Mexico (and Canada). In response, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum indicated Mexico would consider retaliatory tariffs and bolster trade relationships with other partners. "We are not only looking to the north but also to the south and the European continent," Sheinbaum said. "Mexico is strong, and we will always come out on top." Maybe it is time for a stronger Mexico-Canada trade relationship to circumvent the Tariff Man?
by BlackBull_Markets
USDMXN View!!Mexico is now the US's largest trading partner and the auto sector is set to be one of the hardest hit. Meanwhile, the peso is down about 20% so far this year, and the depreciation has accelerated since Trump’s election, driven by a stronger dollar and doubts about whether the Federal Reserve can continue cutting interest rates amid Trump’s potentially inflationary policies. While economic activity in Mexico has shown slight improvement, it is expected to soften next year.
Short
by FXBANkthe8055
USDMXN POSSIBLE SHORT TRADE IDEAOn the monthly charts, we have a bullish trend that has been flipped. A change of character on the monthly chart indicates bearish orderflow setting. Currently, the dollar is gaining strength against major pairs, the Peso is no exception. The bullish resurgence of the dollar against the Peso seems to target price imbalance ranging between 21 to 24. Once these price imbalance has been removed, we are likely to see bearish sentiment setting in, possibly early 2025, targeting new lows.
by morrisgitau
USD/MXN: Trump fears meet Banxico decision The USD/MXN should be an interesting pair to watch in the coming days. October’s headline inflation in Mexico ticked up after two months of declines, yet analysts expect Banxico to proceed with a 25-basis-point rate cut this week regardless. Last week’s volatile trading saw USD/MXN reach 20.80, as markets reacted to concerns over a second Trump presidency. His protectionist and immigration policies would place pressure on the peso. However, for now, the pair’s uptrend may face hurdles. USD/MXN climbed to an intraday high of 20.57, but bullish momentum failed to break the year-to-date peak of 20.80, signaling possible resistance ahead.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDMXN - Trump Sleeper Trade (100k+ Trade) With Trump projected to claim the White House after preliminary votes are in, all eyes turn to Mexico. Trump has been an outspoken opponent of the "Border Crisis" and the loss of jobs to nearshored workers. Trump has threatened Mexico with tariffs on both fronts and is projected to have the House and Senate's support when proposing ballots. Expect many Republican States to issue strong punitive measures AGAINST Mexico. I expect the Peso to weaken to historic lows during this presidency. Target is 32, but could be more or less. This is made BEFORE Trump has taken office or made any decisions, however, Mexican Peso will still weaken until clarity is provided on why it shouldn't. FOREXCOM:USDMXN Potential rate cut on 11/7, but this should be a minor event in comparison to the implications of a Trump Presidency.
Long
by dsmall
1
The Mexican Peso Reborn: A Respite in the Storm Friday was an exciting day for the Mexican peso! The local currency recovered ground after a month full of ups and downs, closing the day at $20.109 MXN per dollar. This advance was driven by a weakened dollar, which lost strength against the world's major currencies. Compared to the previous close of $20.695, the peso gained 15.86 cents, which translates into a 0.79% improvement. Throughout the day, the exchange rate oscillated between $20.890 and a surprising low of $19.9851. These movements reflect the volatility of the market, but the dollar was not the only one to feel the pressure; the Dollar Index was also affected, falling 0.09% to 103.90 points. This dynamic allowed the Mexican peso to breathe a little easier in the midst of the economic storm. However, not everything is rosy. Despite the recovery, the peso closed October with a significant accumulated drop. Economic and political uncertainty in Mexico continues to worry investors, while inflation and interest rate decisions are still up in the air. Still, the peso's resurgence in this context reminds us that there are always opportunities even in the most turbulent times. In conclusion, Friday left us with a sense of hope. Although the peso is still navigating turbulent waters, its ability to react to a weak dollar suggests that investors are still looking for opportunities. The road to stability will not be easy, but the Mexican peso has shown that it can fight. Ion Jauregui –ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades