USDMXN trade ideas
USD/MXN breakout confirmed, upside momentum on the rise. LONG.Hello traders,
finally - after losing a few £££ while trying this long trade - this pair is giving me
some hope that there is scope for a long trade after all...
Went long at: 21.0411 with 1M contract; fixed-amount trailing stop (10-step) is currently at 20.8034 and
the take profit is at 22.000, making the potential loss about 1/4 of the potential profit.
Good luck to us all!
Francesco aka Forexistential
Fade the dollar move, long the Mexican Peso. The dollar has recently broken out against a variety of EMFX crosses. Interestingly, the picture is not the same in the G10 space. With the 10Y yield breaking higher, the narrative is that foreign investors are suddenly attracted to US yield and the dollar receives a bid as a result. We believe it is simply due to rapid growth and inflation expectations changing in the US to the upside. This is bullish to the equity market and bullish risk in general. Add to the cocktail the mix of monetary and fiscal policy in most of the world, and you have tailwinds that will send EM markets higher. Banxico recently cut rates citing soft inflation, however, the majority of Mexico data remains rate-of-change positive. Technically, the dollar reached the 200day exponential moving average and broke out from the prior downtrend. We are fading this as a "fake" breakout. Moreover, we wouldn't be surprised to see dealers hedging gamma above the 20.50 level, causing the slight overshoot. We enter long MXNUSD at 20.80, with a stop at 21, targeting a return to 19.54, where we will book most of the position, and keep SOME in case we see a follow-through downside break.
Will the USDMXN have escape velocity to break 20.77?Again, our favorite FX pair is the USDMXN....we follow it closely. The currently path upwards has first resistance at 21.77...tried once to break it and now has a second time to do it. We think it eventually breaks to the upside. The bottom is in!!!
USDMXN - LONG SWING SETUPOn the daily timeframe market has broke out of the downtrend and started to form new bullish structure. Also on the daily timeframe we can see market has recently made a nice bullish impulse followed by a correction, now we are expecting the continuation to the upside and another new higher high high to form from a daily perspective... we will be waiting on the 4hr timeframe for rules to be met before entering a nice long.
MARKET STRUCTURE||MARKET OUTLOOKAll things being equal, the banks will sell massively (900+ pips) from that 4hr supply level that ive marked with a red box to the next 4hr demand marked green.. The bias will only be violated if a new demand is created just before the supply to take out the supply before moving higher to create newer highs,