USDNOK ShortBearish Probabilities for USD/NOK: 88.89%
๐ Bearish arguments:
- Monthly PCH respected.
- Weekly FVG respected.
- Weekly swing high swept.
- Daily PCL disrespected.
- Daily swing low disrespected.
- Daily bullish FVG disrespected.
- 4H FVG respected.
- 4H swing low disrespected.
- 4H swing high respected.
๐ Only one bullish argument:
- Monthly PCL respected which is our PD Array.
Trade Management: SL is positioned at the start of the Daily FVG, as a break there would signal a clear reversal or consolidation. TP is placed at the SELL STOP level, although if reached, the price may quickly target the DOL point. I will lock in profits at the first target and look for another entry afterward.
Risk: 2%
R/R: 2.06
USDNOK trade ideas
Nordic Noir: The Mystery of USDNOKEconomic Challenges for Norway
The recent increase in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) has had a significant impact on financial markets and the global economy. Simultaneously, Norway faces similar economic challenges to Saudi Arabia due to its dependence on oil and its large sovereign wealth fund. The Norwegian economy and the Norwegian krone (NOK) are deeply influenced by these variables on both sides of the Atlantic.
Interest Rates and their Impact on Europe
The Fed and ECB interest rates are higher than Norway's, which has direct implications on where people choose to invest their money, whether in bonds or savings accounts. The higher yields on U.S. or European bonds make them attractive options for those seeking financial security. In comparison, Iceland has maintained significantly higher interest rates than Norway, the Fed and the ECB, which has helped strengthen its currency, the Icelandic krรณna. However, high interest rates can have negative effects on the economy, as people may choose to save rather than spend.
Impact of the Sovereign Wealth Fund and the Foreign Exchange Market
The Central Bank of Norway continues to sell large amounts of NOK to purchase foreign assets for the Sovereign Wealth Fund in order to diversify its exposure to oil. This process involves the purchase of U.S. dollar assets, which contributes to the depreciation of the NOK by increasing the supply of the Norwegian currency in the foreign exchange market. Oil and gas companies sell oil and gas in US dollars and exchange these USD to NOK to pay taxes in Norway. The central bank, Norges Bank, then exchanges these NOK for foreign currencies such as EUR and USD, and subsequently invests in foreign assets for the sovereign wealth fund.
Effects of Taxes and Oil Prices
The imposition of higher taxes on products such as salmon has reduced investor confidence in the Norwegian economy. This has led even wealthy Norwegians to move their businesses abroad, negatively affecting the local economy and the NOK. The lack of diversification in exports, which are mainly focused on seafood, petroleum and some paper and wood products, increases economic vulnerability.
Oil and gas prices, which are in U.S. dollars, also influence the Norwegian economy. For example, in order for Germany to buy gas from Norway, it must sell euros to acquire dollars, which leads Norway to sell dollars to obtain NOK. This foreign exchange deficit in NOK contributes to the depreciation of the currency.
Problems with the Norwegian krone
The Norwegian krone faces default deflation problems and a high correlation to oil prices. If oil prices continue to fall, the Norwegian krone will be negatively affected. The Fed's high interest rate and persistently low oil prices could contribute to a further depreciation of the krone. In addition, Norway does not have a wide variety of exports, which limits its economic options.
In 2022, Norway was the world's 24th largest economy in terms of GDP (current US $), 28th in total exports and 41st in total imports. It is notable for having the 3rd highest GDP per capita and being the 43rd most complex economy according to the Economic Complexity Index (ECI). Its main exports include petroleum gas, crude oil and unfilled fresh fish, with Germany, the UK and France as the main destinations. In terms of imports, Norway focuses on cars, refined petroleum and transmission equipment, importing mainly from Sweden, Germany and China.
In July 2024, Norway exported NOK 144 MM and imported NOK 84.8 MM, resulting in a positive trade balance of NOK 59.3 MM. Exports grew by 8.14% compared to the previous year, while imports increased by 17.9%. The main exports were petroleum and petroleum products, natural gas, fish and non-ferrous metals, while imports included road vehicles, electrical machinery and petroleum products. The main export destinations were the United Kingdom, Germany and the Netherlands, and the main import sources were China, Germany and Sweden.
The depreciation of the krone has increased the cost of living in Norway, as 99% of the products sold in stores are imported. For example, a McDonald's hamburger in Norway can cost 74 kroner, while in the United States it costs USD 6. This situation reflects the loss of purchasing power of the krona and a monetary policy strategy that is not adequately managing deflation.
Norway has the largest public sector in the world. Since 2000, public spending has increased by 270%, while cumulative inflation has been 70%. This high public spending must be financed through taxes.
Conclusion
The combination of higher interest rates in Europe and volatility in oil prices presents a complex outlook for markets and economies. In Europe, prudence and vigilance remain key, while Norway must address its currency devaluation and dependence on oil to ensure long-term economic stability.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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USDNOKOn the monthly charts we have a confirmed bearish trend with a bullish correction in play.
On the weekly charts we have a shift in order flow confirming our bearish bias though its a long term view. We have an impulsive bearish move that has necessitated a bullish correction to clear previous disequilibrium.
The break in daily structure confirms shift in order flow from bullish to bearish. Presently we are bearish, in consonance with our monthly and weekly view.
$USDNOK Analysis - Harmonic Patterns and OutlookFX_IDC:USDNOK
The USDNOK pair continues to demonstrate remarkable complexity with multiple harmonic patterns. Let's review the previous analyses and see how the latest setup fits into the overall picture.
๐ Current Analysis:
As of September 12, USDNOK is trading with intraday support at 10.765. A drop below this level might indicate a significant decline, with a potential new bullish shark pattern emerging at 10.675, aligning with the target zone of the previous pattern seen at 10.876.
๐ Context of Previous Patterns:
Recent patterns include a bullish alt-bat formation on August 28, leading to a resistance level at 10.737, with further upward movement towards 10.861. On September 11, the pair reached the 224% Fibonacci extension at 10.876, forming a bearish shark pattern that suggests possible downside moves with retracement targets below 10.677. Monitoring the support level at 10.765 will be crucial for assessing the next potential moves.
Happy Trading,
Andrรฉ Cardoso
Trading Signal: USD/NOK MovementAttention Traders,
Our latest analysis using the EASY Quantum Ai strategy indicates a selling opportunity for the USD/NOK currency pair.
Direction: Sell
Enter Price: 10.8384
Take Profit: 10.78341333
Stop Loss: 10.87778333
Reason for the Signal:
1. Technical Analysis: Our proprietary algorithm, EASY Quantum Ai, identifies a bearish pattern forming on the USD/NOK charts. Key indicators such as moving averages and momentum oscillators are signaling a downward trend.
2. Economic Data: Recent economic reports from the US show signs of slowing growth, which typically weakens the USD against other currencies. Simultaneously, Norway's economy remains steady, boosting the NOK.
3. Market Sentiment: There is an observable shift in investor sentiment favoring the NOK. This is evidenced by increased trading volume in NOK-related assets and a general optimism around Norway's economic stability.
Trading Plan:
- Entry Point: Initiate the sell order at 10.8384.
- Take Profit: Close your position at 10.78341333 to secure gains.
- Stop Loss: Set your stop loss at 10.87778333 to limit potential losses.
Stay sharp and manage your risk appropriately.
Best of luck and trade wisely,
The EASY Quantum Ai Team
USDNOK Is Still Eyeing June LowsUSDNOK is sideways for the last two years that looks like a triangle within uptrend. It's an ABCDE pattern where wave E can be in play, ideally still to the lower side of a range for subwave (C) after the recent subwave (B) rally. Notice that we see price turning sharply and impulsively from the upper triangle resistance line as expected, so wave (C) is in full progress which can push the price down to 10.30 - 10.00 support zone before we will see stabilization and recovery.
USDNOK is not at the June lows yet, so we believe it's still in wave 4 correction before a continuation lower for wave 5 towards 10.30 โ 10.00 zone. Ideal resistance is at 10.60 โ 10.70 area.
USD/NOK 1-Hour Long Signal Based on SMA/EMA Crossover and Bull BDescription
In this idea, I want to highlight a potential long trading opportunity on the IBKR:USDNOK 1-hour chart, identified through a combination of technical indicators and thorough market analysis.
1-Hour Chart Analysis:
A signal was generated as the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed under the 26-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), triggering a long entry condition. This crossover, highlighted by the yellow background on the chart, marks a potential shift in market momentum, signaling a possible bullish move.
The strategy also incorporated the Bull Bear Power indicator to confirm this signal. The indicator showed that the bear power has weakened, falling below a predefined threshold of 0.00140, which further supports the idea of a potential upward move.
Additionally, the strategy includes an ATR-based stop-loss and take-profit calculation, providing clear risk management levels for the trade. The stop-loss is set using a 1.2 ATR multiplier, while the take-profit is calculated with an 8.0 ATR multiplier, both rounded to the nearest value ending in 0 or 5 for precision.
Daily Chart Analysis:
Looking at the daily chart, we can observe that the previous day's candle left a significant shadow, indicating possible rejection of lower prices and potential buying pressure. The MACD histogram on the daily chart shows early signs of upward momentum, suggesting that the market might be gearing up for a bullish move.
Moreover, the price is currently hovering around a key Fibonacci retracement level, adding another layer of support to the bullish scenario.
Trade Details:
Entry Price: 10.5439
Stop Loss: 10.46065
Take Profit: 10.6218
Norges CB keeps rates unchanged Intraday Update: The Norges central bank kept rates unchanged and as most other central banks are cutting, they may keep rates at current levels in the coming meetings which may support the NOK near term. The USDNOK is approaching some very critical daily triangle support at 10.60 and 10.35.
USDNOK nearing major triangle supportIntraday Update: FX_IDC:USDNOK has broken lower to test the 78% retracement, and below here will be long term triangle support near the 10.50's. Keep in mind the Norges CB meets on interest rates in less than 24hrs which could allow for a major test/break of this technical level.
USDNOK-SELL strategy Daily chart Heikin AshiThe 4-hourly charts show some upside potential, but daily chart shows we may see a correction back below 10.8500 area. Stochastic is high up and it feels turning coming days.
Strategy SELL @ 11.0675 - 11.1100 and take profit @ 10.8975 and SL above 11.1450.
Trade Signal Alert: USDNOKWe have identified a bullish trading opportunity for the USDNOK currency pair. Here are the details of the trade signal:
Direction: Buy
Enter Price: 10.8108
Take Profit: 10.85828667
Stop Loss: 10.72256667
Our prediction is based on the EASY Quantum Ai strategy, which leverages advanced algorithms and data analysis to forecast market movements. This Buy signal is supported by several key factors:
1. Technical Analysis: The USDNOK pair recently broke a significant resistance level, indicating strong upward momentum and the potential for further gains.
2. Economic Indicators: Recent economic reports suggest improving conditions in the US economy, which is likely to strengthen the USD against NOK.
3. Market Sentiment: Current market sentiment indicates a preference for USD over NOK due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties affecting Norway.
We recommend entering the trade at 10.8108 with a Take Profit target set at 10.85828667 and a Stop Loss at 10.72256667 to manage risk effectively.
Keep an eye on market developments and trade responsibly.
USDNOK Buy opportunity above the 1D MA50.The USDNOK pair has been trading within a Triangle pattern for the past 2 years (since June 2022) and right now is consolidating right below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) after holding the Higher Lows Zone.
Within this 2-year pattern, every time the price broke above the 1D MA50 following a bottom bounce, the new Bullish Leg was initiated. Our Target is 11.000 (just below the Lower Highs trend-line).
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