Big Short on NATGAS Am I Crazy?Gooood morning guys,
As always I keep things brief and simple
Short on CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS actual price 3.50$
FIRST TARGET --> 3.00$
SECOND TARGET --> 2.75$
Why?
- Stocks are full in Europe
- Seasonality, Autumun season boosts in the beginning of October stabilizes till mid of it and crashes in the end of the month. I'm just following the cycle.
What could go wrong?
- Israel events happened and we still have to see the effects with other exporters arab countries I don't think that something is going to happen as the '73 crisis (I don't have a sphere to predict the future)
- The stocks are not full in the US
- Thyphoons in the US
- Unexpected decrease in temperature
- Seasonality not respected and sudden big speculation on the price of NATGAS
With that being said I just share my opinion here and I repeat don't have a magic sphere nor I'm god so future is always unpredictable I just adapt to change and keep up to date.
oh and yeah TradingView already says that but I'm going to say it again I AM JUST SHARING MY IDEAS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICES HERE
Peace out
USDNTG trade ideas
Natural Gas Prices Fall to More than 2-month LowsYesterday, XNG/USD quotes dropped below the 2,900 level for the first time since mid-September. This was helped by the fact that the NatGasWeather weather forecasting model late last week showed a cooling trend in December in the US, but this was replaced by warming over the weekend.
According to analyst forecasts from Analysts Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co., published on Monday:
→ natural gas reserves at the end of winter could be 2 trillion cubic feet (previously forecast 1.9 trillion);
→ price could be USD 2.75 (previous forecast was USD 3 or less).
Meanwhile, the US Natural Gas price chart shows that:
→ the price of natural gas is near the lower border of the channel (shown in blue), which can provide support;
→ the MACD indicator indicates divergence (a sign of weakening selling pressure).
Thus, although the market has been in a bearish trend since the beginning of November (shown in red), the chart shows bullish signs — it is possible that the price in the short term may rise to the upper limit of the red channel. The likelihood of this scenario will increase if the weather forecasting model indicates a cold snap.
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Natural gas is nearing its bottom if not already.I believe Natural gas is nearing its bottom and about to launch from a downward (bullish) wedge. Also its currently above its 200 DMA which dropped from above and when that happens Natural Gas usually has a nice bullish rally. So using Trendlines and fibs I show where I believe Natural Gas is or has bottomed and where I think it might be headed by EOY taking out a bear gap way above.
Volatile move to trendline rejection incoming?Will the 2005 high and 2008 high downward trendline (blue line) be touched (and rejected)? This month it would touch at around 2.15. Maybe a volatile move down and agressive bounce will push many players out of the market.
Potential Downtrend NATGAS
The natural gas market is currently experiencing a significant downtrend. As per technical indicators including Fibonacci retracements, Ichimoku cloud analysis, volume trends, MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), and RSI (Relative Strength Index), the price of natural gas has declined notably.
Current levels indicate a potential sell opportunity with a suggested stop-loss (SL) set at 2.955 and a take-profit (TP) target at 2.730.
NATTY 15% Correction on the way?Natural Gas has recorded a negative bearish divergence on the 4hr which I believe is the sign of a correction to retest the green base below.
It had fired on all of it's cylinders yesterday which I believe was a dead cat bounce removing as many short sellers as possible.
Shorting this time of year usually means commission from your broker - mine is offering 3% of my total investment.
Natural Gas - Time to go Long as Pullback Looks CompleteNatural gas seems to have completed pull back. Price as broken past the descending trendline and now has climbed above recent support turned resistance layer. Awesome oscillator has too crossed over to bullish zone and we also see hidden divergence of Awesome Oscillator.
Natural Gas Rallying Again
Technicals :
Taking a second position in Natural Gas long
Reasons :
uHd
pb to support and retook the kijun
Daily cloud bulling
Wicked Daddy Deeper pullback squeeze
Price hit daily lower ADR and AWR and rallied
Weekly 5EMAs signal and 15/50 signal:
1hour lower time frame crown fakeout:
🤷♂️ SP500 UpdateOk, as it often happens given the extrem sell-off on the news I am falling back on one of my older scenarios where wave 2 has a more pronounced wave retracing at least 0.618 of wave 1. Other options are also possible (one indicated as a bigger contracting diagonal).
It might be a chance to short but a SL has to be managed carefully.