NZDUSDWe're experiencing an extended bearish move on this pair for quite some time now and price's been consolidating, I do expect a correction upward say 38.2 or 50% FIB before the continuation of the bearish move.
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USDNZD trade ideas
NZDUSD bearish idea confirmationsAs seen in the bigger picture, the pair has been predominantly bearish. My decision to go short was based on the break and retest of the green line I drew. After that, the price respected the fvg drawn multiple times and formed a small head and shoulders pattern, signaling a shift towards bearish momentum. There were also a few small fair value gaps on the 5-minute chart that needed to be filled, which the price has now done, and it’s heading downward. My prediction is that it will continue to drop to fill the daily fvg at the price level of 0.60300 , after which it may either bounce back upward or continue its decline.
If you can see there was even a demand zone that it broke and then retested successfully.
Slight Bullish Bias Expected on NZDUSD in 17/10/2024NZDUSD: Slight Bullish Bias Expected on 17/10/2024 – Key Drivers Analysis
As we head into today's trading session on 17/10/2024, NZDUSD exhibits a slightly bullish bias. Several key fundamental factors and current market conditions suggest potential upward momentum for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the US Dollar (USD). Let’s explore these factors in detail to better understand the outlook.
1. New Zealand Economic Data
Today’s bullish sentiment surrounding the NZDUSD pair is largely influenced by better-than-expected New Zealand economic data. Recent releases, including New Zealand’s GDP growth and Retail Sales figures, have exceeded forecasts. These indicators suggest a stronger domestic economy, which has led to increased demand for the New Zealand Dollar.
Furthermore, New Zealand's Reserve Bank (RBNZ) has maintained a relatively hawkish stance compared to other central banks, which keeps investor sentiment leaning positively toward the NZD. Expectations of further tightening from the RBNZ, or at least holding rates at elevated levels, continue to support the currency.
2. US Dollar Weakness
A significant factor contributing to the bullish bias in NZDUSD is the current weakness in the US Dollar. Despite recent strength due to US Federal Reserve hawkish tones, there is increasing uncertainty surrounding the US economy, particularly in light of the recent inflation data and soft employment reports. These factors suggest the Fed might delay further rate hikes, or even consider cutting rates in the future. As a result, traders are shifting away from the USD, favoring riskier currencies like the NZD.
Additionally, with geopolitical tensions increasing global market uncertainty, the USD's status as a safe-haven currency has seen temporary weakening, making room for NZD appreciation.
3. Commodities Support
New Zealand’s economy is heavily dependent on commodities, particularly dairy exports. In recent weeks, global dairy prices have seen an uptick, which directly supports the value of the New Zealand Dollar. A rise in commodity prices enhances the terms of trade for New Zealand, offering support to the NZD.
This is coupled with a broader improvement in risk appetite in the global markets. As risk sentiment remains positive, commodity-linked currencies like the NZD often benefit from these shifts in investor appetite.
4. Technical Setup
From a technical analysis perspective, the NZDUSD pair has recently bounced off a key support level around the 0.5880-0.5900 region. This technical bounce aligns with the broader bullish narrative and has seen the pair trade towards resistance near 0.6000. If bullish momentum continues, we could see further upside, potentially testing higher levels around 0.6050-0.6100.
The RSI indicator also shows a potential shift into bullish territory, indicating increasing buying pressure on the pair.
Conclusion: Slight Bullish Bias for NZDUSD on 17/10/2024
Overall, the NZDUSD is likely to exhibit a slightly bullish bias throughout today’s session due to stronger New Zealand economic performance, a weakening US Dollar, rising commodity prices, and favorable technical conditions. Traders looking to capitalize on this momentum might consider long positions with near-term targets around 0.6000 and 0.6050.
However, it is important to stay cautious of any sudden shifts in global risk sentiment or surprise economic data releases from the US that could change the dynamics.
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NZD/USD, 1H timeframe, Technical AnalysisThe price has faced a strong resistance around 0.6050 resistance level, as this level is a high liquidity zone and we can already see liquidity sweep, that gives a confirmation to lookout for long positions right after the full breakout of the channel and 0.6070 resistance level with the high impact news coming out today.
NZDUSD ready to go up after failing to make new lows?NZD/USD has experienced a decline of 5.12% since 27 September, establishing a bearish trend line on the 4-hour chart. However, on 10 October, the pair began to break out of this bearish trend line, signalling a potential pause in the prevailing bearish momentum.
On 15 October, NZD/USD retraced, forming a double bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart. Notably, the price was unable to breach the previous support level of 0.6050, suggesting stabilisation in the market.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicated a value of 21.06 on 24 September. By 15 October, the RSI had risen to 34.10, demonstrating higher lows in the RSI while the price made lower lows — a condition that characterises classical bullish divergence.
CPI Data and Its Impact
From a macroeconomic perspective, the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in lower than expected (0.6% actual versus 0.7% forecast), which tends to be negative for the NZD and that is what caused the downward movement on October 15th. However, since the price failed to break below the previous low, this shows that the selling force is currently showing signs of exhaustion.
Key Elements to Consider:
1. Significant downward movement since 27 September, resulting in a depreciation of over 5% in NZD/USD.
2. RSI reading below 30 on 10 October, suggesting exhaustion of the selling momentum.
3. Breakout from the downtrend line on the 4-hour chart.
4. Formation of a double bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart.
5. Classical bullish divergence is observed on the 4-hour chart.
Potential for Ascendancy
Given the above elements, if NZD/USD manages to surpass the 0.6090 level, it is likely that the currency pair will ascend towards the 0.6160 region within the coming days, where it may face temporary resistance.
A Bullish Turn on the Horizon?
In conclusion, while recent indicators and patterns suggest a potential bullish reversal for NZD/USD, traders should remain cautious of external factors that may influence market dynamics. As always, close monitoring of price action and macroeconomic developments will be key in navigating this trading opportunity.
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NZDUSD: One More Bearish Confirmation 🇳🇿🇺🇸
Earlier this week, I already predicted a bearish movement on NZDUSD.
I spotted one more bearish confirmation today.
This time, the price formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on a 4H time frame.
Its rising support was broken.
I think that the price may drop lower.
First goal - 0.604
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Read The NZDUSD MarketLet's Look at NZDUSD Price Actions and find some Trade Opportunities, Good Luck With Your Trades <3
NZDUSD Short Term Sell IdeaD1 - Bearish convergence
Most recent uptrend line breakout
No opposite signs
H4 - Bearish trend pattern
Currently it looks like a pullback is happening
Until the strong resistance zone holds my short term view remains bearish here
NZDUSD Longs - Channel bottom and mean reversion?So we've hit the bottom of a channel here and it's been a hard fall down, I think it's time for longer term longs, great risk reward entry point right now.
NZD/USD +70 Pips 0 Drawdown , New Entry Valid After D Closure !This Is An Educational + Analytic Content That Will Teach Why And How To Enter A Trade
Make Sure You Watch The Price Action Closely In Each Analysis As This Is A Very Important Part Of Our Method
Disclaimer : This Analysis Can Change At Anytime Without Notice And It Is Only For The Purpose Of Assisting Traders To Make Independent Investments Decisions.
NZDUSD Analysis for 16/10/2024: Slight Bullish Bias ExpectedIntroduction
As of 16th October 2024, the NZDUSD (New Zealand Dollar vs. US Dollar) pair shows a slight bullish bias in today’s trading session. A combination of fundamental factors, economic data releases, and market sentiment are all playing a pivotal role in driving this price action. In this article, we will break down the key drivers for the potential bullish trend in NZDUSD today, with a focus on the latest developments in the global economy, central bank policies, and market conditions.
Key Drivers for NZDUSD Bullish Bias
1. New Zealand Economic Data Strength
One of the primary factors contributing to the slight bullish bias in NZDUSD is the recent release of positive economic data from New Zealand. Key indicators such as GDP growth and retail sales have come in stronger than expected, supporting the NZD. The New Zealand economy continues to exhibit resilience despite global challenges, and this has attracted investors towards the Kiwi dollar.
In the latest report, New Zealand’s consumer sentiment index showed improvement, reflecting increased consumer confidence. This suggests that domestic demand is picking up, which is supportive of the New Zealand Dollar’s strength. As a result, this economic optimism is likely to boost NZDUSD.
2. RBNZ Hawkish Stance
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a relatively hawkish stance, signaling a possible interest rate hike in the near future to combat inflation. Although inflation remains elevated globally, New Zealand’s inflation figures are closely monitored by the RBNZ, and the central bank is prepared to act if needed. A potential rate hike would increase the attractiveness of the NZD in the forex market.
The US Federal Reserve, by contrast, is leaning towards a more neutral stance, with expectations that interest rates may have peaked for the time being. This divergence in monetary policy between the RBNZ and the Federal Reserve is providing support to NZDUSD, as a more hawkish RBNZ outlook favors the New Zealand Dollar.
3. US Dollar Weakness
On the other side of the equation, the US Dollar has experienced some softness amid mixed economic data and shifting market sentiment. The recent US CPI (Consumer Price Index) report showed inflation cooling, reducing the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening. As inflation shows signs of easing, investors are beginning to price in the possibility of a Fed pause, which has led to USD weakness.
Additionally, political uncertainty in the US, particularly related to fiscal policy and government shutdown risks, is weighing on the USD. The combination of a potentially dovish Federal Reserve and domestic uncertainty is making the US Dollar less attractive, boosting the NZDUSD pair.
4. Global Risk Sentiment
Risk sentiment in global financial markets is another critical driver of NZDUSD. As a commodity-linked currency, the New Zealand Dollar often performs well when risk appetite improves. Today, we see a more optimistic tone in equity markets as investors respond positively to the easing inflation pressures in the US and signs of stabilization in global growth. This “risk-on” environment typically benefits the NZD, and we are seeing this reflected in the slight bullish bias for NZDUSD.
Moreover, China's economic stabilization efforts, especially in the property sector, have provided additional support for commodity-exporting countries like New Zealand, bolstering the NZD.
5. Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective, NZDUSD has been testing key support levels in recent trading sessions, and a bounce from these levels is likely to fuel further upside. The 50-day moving average (MA) has recently crossed above the 200-day MA, forming a bullish “golden cross,” which is a positive signal for further upside movement in the short term.
In addition, RSI (Relative Strength Index) readings are indicating that the pair is not yet in overbought territory, suggesting more room for the bullish momentum to continue.
Conclusion
In summary, the NZDUSD pair is expected to maintain a slight bullish bias on 16th October 2024, driven by several key fundamental factors. Strong New Zealand economic data, a hawkish RBNZ stance, US Dollar weakness, positive global risk sentiment, and favorable technical signals all contribute to the optimistic outlook for NZDUSD today. However, traders should remain cautious of any unexpected developments that could shift the market sentiment.
Keywords: NZDUSD, New Zealand Dollar, US Dollar, Forex Analysis, 16th October 2024, bullish bias, RBNZ, Federal Reserve, US inflation, interest rates, forex market, technical analysis, risk sentiment, currency trading, New Zealand economy, NZD strength, TradingView analysis, forex forecast, USD weakness.
NZDUSD_4Hhello
New Zealand dollar analysis Elliott wave analysis style In the medium term time frame The market is at the end of the fall and in the 5th wave of decline, which is a trading position where the last fall can be considered in the range of 0.60000, and after completing the fall, it will enter an upward wave and correct upwards towards the number 0.62062.
NZDUSD BUY 0.5963On the daily chart, NZDUSD fluctuated and fell, and the bears have the upper hand. At present, you can pay attention to the potential bullish cypher, the buying position is around 0.5963. At the same time, this position is in the previous demand area, and the upward target is 0.6122.
NZD/USD Nears Key Support, Swing Trade PotentialHello,
OANDA:NZDUSD has experienced further downside pressure and is now approaching the 1-month low of 0.605265. The 6-month low stands at 0.58497, while the 1-year low is at 0.577335. With the current bearish momentum, it seems likely this trend will continue. However, it's important to note that we're nearing a significant 1-year support level at 0.589779, which could play a critical role moving forward. Another key support level to watch is at 0.604296. Buyers are optimistic that a swing trade opportunity may soon arise, provided these support levels hold firm.
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Upcoming down trendgood day traders, our analysis show that our Dynamic support(trendlines) that marked an uptrend was broken, the neckline was also broken which confirmed our CHoC then again price broke our Major support and retested it giving us a new Lower Low and a downtrend confirmation. With all this then if market makes new LL then we can enter sells because it's a clear confirmation that the market is about to drop for some time
NZDUSD BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisNZD/USD is falling towards a support level which is a pullback support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity NZDUSD
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Kiwi H1 | Falling to 78.6% Fibonacci supportThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 0.6069 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 0.6040 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 0.6118 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Short idea for NZD using ICT MethodWant to see price trade above the PDH then sell off to 6050 level
DOW THEORY - NZDUSD - SHORT series of LH and LL , SL above recent LH and assume it would continue riding trend ( Bullish)
NZDUSD TO TRADE BULLISH!Price trades at 0.60886 level. I anticipate bullish price action to develop away from the current price. Target is 0.62767
NZDUSD Sell ForecastNZDUSD New forecast👨💻👨💻
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