NZDUSD - SHORT Entry Formation of LH and LL along with formation of Three Black Crows at the LH depicts continuation of bearish pattern.
USDNZD trade ideas
safe-haven play :USD vs. NZDIn several of my previous analyses, I mentioned the state of the Forex market due to geopolitical tensions . As a result, we are witnessing an increase in safe-haven currencies like USD compared to riskier currencies such as AUD and NZD. Therefore, by following proper risk management principles, you can open short positions on this currency pair.
Additionally, from a technical perspective, after breaking down the ascending channel, the price has formed the first wave of Elliott and, after its correction, has completed the second wave. In the most recent candle, it has entered the third impulsive wave.
Target 1: 0.59750
Target 2: 0.58626
Stop Loss: 0.61010
It could be an Head & Shoulders insteadIt could be an Head & Shoulders instead of a Bullish Shark Pattern.
Let's see.
Bullish Shark Pattern on NZDUSD M15 ChartI love trading sideways consolidation breakout trades, but since I missed the initial move, I've been patiently waiting for a retest. Now, an even better opportunity has presented itself!
What's Happening?
- Bullish Shark Pattern : A Bullish Shark Pattern is forming on the M15 (15-minute) chart at 0.6046 on the NZDUSD.
Why is this Exciting?
- Combo Trade Management : This setup allows for a combination of strategies that can significantly reduce initial risk while increasing potential returns.
How to Approach This Trade?
1. Wait for Confirmation : I'll be waiting for a Magic Candle Confirmation at the pattern completion point before entering the trade.
2. Risk Management : Include our stop-loss buffer just below the pattern completion to manage risk effectively.
3. Potential Upside : With the pattern forming and the potential retest, this setup could offer a great risk-to-reward ratio.
Final Thoughts
Sometimes, missing an initial trade isn't a setback but an opportunity to find an even better setup. Patience pays off! 🎯
What’s your take on this NZDUSD setup? Have you spotted similar opportunities? Share your thoughts and let's discuss!
Happy trading, everyone! 🚀
Trading NZD/USD? Consider These Factors In Your Plans..Currently, Markets are changing from near to long term risk sentiment.
Focusing mainly on the lowering of rates across the board of global economies, the Markets for many correlated pairs have drifted somewhat sideways.
Any sudden change in sentiment (risk wise) often causes a skew in this, as we have seen from some recession fear/risk off sentiment previously.
Due to US strength post jobs/retail sales (slower easing, potentially) we are now seeing a further decline in the NZD/USD.
Any news on external market fears likely will sink the NZD further, at this point Markets are mostly relying on FED sentiment.
I would not be shocked if we get back to the Lower TL within current trajectory. I am out of shorts, and holding off any serious longs until previous lows (based on sentiment at the time).
The weakness we can see at the moment is clear as you have no real momentum coming from Antipodeans. I would only consider new shorts on reasonable pushes to the upside and key local resistance.
Awaiting any major FED sentiment RE rates/easing.
break out and retest of trendline.market keeps on giving us a bearish movement lets see how it plays out this week
Market Analysis: NZD/USD Could Recover In Short-TermMarket Analysis: NZD/USD Could Recover In Short-Term
NZD/USD could gain bullish momentum if there is a clear move above the 0.6090 resistance.
Important Takeaways for NZD/USD Analysis Today
- NZD/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 0.6050 resistance.
- There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6075 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair also followed a similar pattern and declined from the 0.6120 zone. The New Zealand Dollar gained bearish momentum and traded below 0.6100 against the US Dollar.
The pair even dropped below the 50-hour simple moving average and tested 0.6080. A low was formed near 0.6039 and the pair is now attempting a fresh increase. It is back above the 0.6050 level and the 50-hour simple moving average.
Besides, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 0.6075. On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6119 swing high to the 0.6039 low.
The next major resistance is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6119 swing high to the 0.6039 low at 0.6100. If there is a move above 0.6100, the pair could rise toward the 0.6120 resistance.
Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 0.6150 resistance zone. On the downside, immediate support on the NZD/USD chart is near 0.6045.
The next major support is near the 0.6000 zone. If there is a downside break below 0.6000, the pair could extend the decline toward the 0.5965 level. The next key support is near 0.5940.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Potential Bullish Bias Amid Key Fundamental Drivers | NZDUSDNZDUSD Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias Amid Key Fundamental Drivers | 21 October 2024
Introduction
As of 21st October 2024, the NZDUSD pair is showing signs of a slightly bullish bias, driven by various fundamental and market conditions. In this article, we explore the key factors impacting the NZDUSD forecast today and provide an in-depth look at what traders should be aware of when positioning for potential upward movements in the pair.
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Key Drivers Influencing NZDUSD Today
1. Hawkish RBNZ Expectations
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to maintain a hawkish stance in its upcoming meetings due to persistent inflationary pressures in the New Zealand economy. The central bank has consistently reiterated its commitment to controlling inflation, leading to expectations of potential interest rate hikes. This hawkish outlook is providing support for the NZDUSD currency pair, attracting buyers as they anticipate higher yields in New Zealand's markets.
2. Weakening US Dollar
The US Dollar has been under pressure due to mixed economic data out of the US and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next moves. While inflation in the US remains high, there are signs of economic softening, with recent data pointing to a slowdown in manufacturing and services sectors. This has led to market expectations of a pause or moderation in the Fed’s tightening cycle, weakening the USD across the board. A softer USD provides tailwinds for NZDUSD bulls, as the kiwi can take advantage of reduced strength in the greenback.
3. Positive New Zealand Economic Data
New Zealand recently released stronger-than-expected economic data, particularly in the areas of GDP growth and employment figures. This has bolstered confidence in the economy’s resilience, even amidst global uncertainties. As a result, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) has gained support, enhancing the likelihood of a continued bullish momentum in NZDUSD.
4. Improved Global Sentiment
The global economic outlook has been somewhat bolstered by positive developments in international trade and easing geopolitical tensions, which tend to favor risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD. The improvement in risk appetite globally has also encouraged inflows into the New Zealand dollar, which is viewed as a high-beta currency.
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Technical Outlook
From a technical analysis perspective, NZDUSD has recently tested key support levels near 0.5800, and a bounce from this level suggests potential further gains. The pair is trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend in the short term. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral zone, leaving room for further upside without reaching overbought conditions.
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Conclusion
In conclusion, NZDUSD shows a slightly bullish bias today, 21st October 2024, driven by a mix of positive domestic factors for New Zealand and a weaker US Dollar. Key factors like hawkish expectations from the RBNZ, positive economic data from New Zealand, and a weakening greenback contribute to the pair's upward potential. Traders looking to capitalize on this move should keep an eye on upcoming economic releases and RBNZ commentary, which could further solidify the bullish momentum for the kiwi.
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RANGING NU sellThis trade was early.
If you check my another analysis. Might have the idea on this trade.
NZDUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.6123, which is an overlap resistance and a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 0.6052, a multi-swing low support level.
The stop loss will be at 0.6171, an overlap resistance level with 38.2% Fibo retracement
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
NZDUSD : Two probabilities for 10/21/2024NZDUSD with a high probability to make the decision for 10/21/2024 ✅️ :
🔸️If the price exceeds the green bar 🟩, with the bar closing in the hour above: there will be a high chance of entering a purchase as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news and the stop loss.
🔸️If the price exceeds the red bar 🟥, with the bar closing in the hour below: there will be a high chance of entering a sale as indicated in the chart, respecting the day, news, and the stop loss.
NZDUSD confirmationsI have strong conviction that this is going to drop significantly. There are numerous confirmations and rejections aligning with the setup, plus both the weekly and daily trends are clearly bearish. I'm fully committed to this sell trade so i'm putting my house and everything else on this trade. 🧑🏻💻💰📊
•Weekly, daily bearish
•Ema 50 bearish
•Head and shoulders pattern, retest of neckline and many rejections on that, etc..
NZDUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.60800 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.60800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
NZDUSD ChartNZDUSD Chart
There is Bearish trend. Now, bullish divergence formed also have the Bullish falling Wedge Reversal pattern. So, will take buy entry at the breakout of last LH.
NZDUSD 4H long watchlistIt's a quiet week no trades yet, but that's a good thing.
That means also no losses are taken. So my decision-making ability to spot only good quality trades for my system works.
NZDUSD 4H long is on only thing that caught my attention and I will explain why.
First thing what I always want to see a long clean downtrend breaking support. It's hovering arround that level so that's good.
Second thing consolidation pattern with a couple of fakeouts. The last deep red candle pierced deeper than the rest. So that indicates price is looking for liquidity to move up again.
What's also really nice after the deep red candle we see some small indecision candles.
The only thing what needs to happen now is one medium to strong bullish candle I draw it on the charts as example. That's enough reason for me to enter.
If not I skip the trade with no problem :)
NZDUSD Short Market structure Bearish on HTFs 30
Weekly and Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Weekly EMA retest
Rejection Previous Weekly Structure Point
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily Previous Structure Point
Around Psychological Level 0.61500
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 7.58
Entry 125%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King
NZDUSD: Expecting Bearish Movement! Here is Why:
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to sell NZDUSD.
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NZD/USD Attracts Modest Buying on Friday Amid USD WeaknessThe NZD/USD pair has attracted some buying interest for the second consecutive day on Friday, driven by a modest weakening of the US Dollar (USD). However, the upside momentum lacks strong bullish conviction as the pair continues to hover around the 0.6071 level, close to the one-month low touched earlier this week. Despite the rebound, market sentiment surrounding the pair remains cautious, with traders awaiting further cues from both global economic developments and key technical indicators.
US Dollar Weakness Offers Relief
The primary driver behind the modest gains in NZD/USD has been the slight pullback in the US Dollar. The greenback has recently shown signs of weakening after a strong rally in previous weeks, largely supported by robust US economic data and hawkish expectations around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The recent downtick in the USD has provided some breathing room for risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar, allowing for a temporary recovery in the pair.
Technical Outlook: Demand Zone Holds Firm
From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair appears to have rejected a significant demand zone, suggesting that there is support for the pair at current levels. This demand area has seen increased buying interest, particularly as retail traders remain extremely short on the pair. In contrast, smart money – typically institutional investors with deeper market insights – has started to build long positions, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment.
The rejection of the demand zone and the presence of long positions from smart money traders suggest that the NZD/USD pair could be poised for further gains. This technical setup aligns with the broader seasonality patterns that indicate a potential uptrend in the coming weeks.
Seasonality and Market Sentiment: Bullish Signs Ahead?
Seasonality data, which tracks historical patterns in currency movements, shows a potential uptrend for the NZD/USD pair. This is supported by the current market positioning, where retail traders are overwhelmingly short, creating a contrarian signal for a potential rally. Smart money's shift towards building long positions adds weight to the argument that the pair may be headed for a sustained move higher.
Given these factors, we have decided to open a long position on NZD/USD, taking advantage of the technical setup, smart money movements, and favorable seasonality trends. While the overall market sentiment remains cautious, the combination of these signals offers a compelling case for a potential bullish move in the near term.
Conclusion: A Cautious Bullish Outlook
While the NZD/USD pair has attracted modest buying on the back of USD weakness, the bullish conviction remains limited for now. However, the rejection of a key demand area, coupled with the increasing long positions from smart money and favorable seasonality patterns, suggests that the pair could see further upside in the days ahead.
As always, traders should remain cautious and monitor upcoming economic data releases and market developments that could influence the pair's direction. Nonetheless, the technical and fundamental setup currently points to a potential opportunity for upside gains, and we are positioned accordingly with a long trade.
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Falling wedge on support.Broke the falling wedge , we could see a very strong reversal. NEXT STOPS ARE THE PREVIOUS SUPPLY zones which brought us here
NZDUSD Outlook: Slight Bullish Bias on October 18, 2024Key Drivers Behind the Bullish Sentiment on the New Zealand Dollar (NZDUSD)
The NZDUSD pair is showing a slight bullish bias on October 18, 2024, driven by a combination of fundamental factors and the latest market conditions. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been gaining ground against the US Dollar (USD) in early trading, supported by improving domestic economic data and a shift in global risk sentiment. Below are the key drivers contributing to the upward momentum in NZDUSD today.
1. Improved New Zealand Economic Data
One of the primary factors supporting the NZDUSD’s bullish bias is the release of stronger-than-expected New Zealand economic data. Recent GDP figures and labor market reports have indicated a healthier-than-expected recovery, particularly in sectors like agriculture and tourism, which are critical to the country’s economy. The positive data has boosted investor confidence in the New Zealand economy, leading to increased demand for the NZD.
2. Risk-On Sentiment in Global Markets
A risk-on sentiment in global financial markets has also contributed to the NZD's strength. As a high-beta currency, the New Zealand Dollar tends to perform well in periods of risk appetite. Global equity markets have been relatively stable, and there has been a broad move towards riskier assets, reducing demand for safe-haven currencies like the USD. This has allowed the NZD to benefit from higher risk tolerance among investors today.
3. Weaker US Dollar (USD)
The US Dollar has been under pressure today as traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook. Recent commentary from Fed officials has indicated a potential slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes as inflation shows signs of cooling. The prospect of a more dovish Fed has weakened the USD, giving the NZDUSD pair room to rise. Additionally, a softer dollar makes NZD-denominated assets more attractive, providing further upside for the pair.
4. Commodity Prices Supporting the NZD
New Zealand’s economy is heavily reliant on commodity exports, particularly dairy and agricultural products. Today, commodity prices are showing some resilience, further supporting the NZD. As a commodity-linked currency, the NZD often follows the price movements of key exports, and recent strength in these markets is bolstering demand for the currency. This is a positive factor in today’s market conditions, giving the NZDUSD pair a slight bullish edge.
5. Technical Analysis: NZDUSD Holding Above Key Support Levels
From a technical perspective, NZDUSD is holding above key support levels near 0.5850, signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend. The pair has formed higher lows, and the bullish momentum is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which indicates a slightly bullish bias. If the pair manages to stay above this support level, traders could see further gains toward the next resistance around 0.5900.
Conclusion: NZDUSD Faces Slight Bullish Bias Today
With stronger New Zealand economic data, global risk-on sentiment, a weaker US Dollar, and resilient commodity prices, NZDUSD is expected to maintain a slight bullish bias on October 18, 2024. Traders should monitor key resistance levels and any potential shifts in market sentiment that could alter the dynamics of the currency pair.
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Kiwi H1 | Heading into resistanceThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.6070 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 0.6089 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 0.6038 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
