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U.S. Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

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USDNZD trade ideas

NZD/USD rolling over as dairy rebound soursKiwi is looking toppy after printing a shooting star last Thursday, following the bearish reversal through .62764 with two back-to-back declines before easing lower again today. With RSI (14) breaking its uptrend, bullish momentum is waning. While not confirmed by MACD, the Kiwi looks heavy on the charts. Much will be determined by the price action around .6218, a level that thwarted numerous bullish probes in 2024 up until recently. If we see the price fall below .6218 and hold there, one potential setup would be to sell the break with a tight stop above the level for protection. On the downside, minor support is located below .6200 and around .6175, although there’s nothing meaningful until .6133 where former downtrend resistance intersects with horizontal resistance at .6133. From a fundamental perspective, Kiwi remains closely correlated with dairy markets, as shown in the bottom pane with a rolling 20-day correlation with whole milk powder futures of 0.94. Dairy prices remain strongly negatively correlated with moves in the US dollar index, making the Kiwi essentially an inverse play on US dollar movements. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREXcom
NZDUSD Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Long
by ShahedZare
NZDUSD: ITF CURVE ANALYSIS (8H) - DOWNTREND✨NZDUSD: ITF CURVE ANALYSIS (8H) ✨ (DOWNTREND) SLO4 @ 0.63439 ⏳(LOW POTENTIAL) SLO3 @ 0.62919 ⏳ SLO2 @ 0.62886 ⏳ SLO1 @ 0.62689 ⏳ SSO1 @ 0.62587 - TRIGGERED SSO2 @ 0.62508 - TRIGGERED SLO3 @ 0.6240 - TRIGGERED TP1 @ 0.61929 TP2 @ 0.60484 TP3 @ 0.59538 BLO1 @ 0.59310⏳ (✨NEW✨- TANDEM ORDER - PAY ATTENTION) NOTE: IF PA gets to TP2 before triggering any of the above SLO's, they we will ALL be null and void on any RT or PB unless new info presents itself. If this occurs, I'll present a new buy opportunity to work alongside the HTF long position currently running. See "NZDUSD: HTF CURVE ANALYSIS (9D) - UPTREND" post for further details. Happy trading all. 🔑 BLO = BUY LIMIT ORDER HTF = HIGH TIMEFRAME ITF = INTERMEDIATE TIME FRAME PB = PULLBACK RT = RETRACEMENT SLO = SELL LIMIT ORDER SSO = SELL STOP ORDER TP = TAKE PROFIT Intermediate time frames (4 hours to 6 day): — Offer a clearer picture of the underlying trend compared to short-term frames. — Provide more opportunities for confirmation signals and technical analysis. — Allow for more flexible trading schedules, trades can be held overnight. — Suitable for swing traders and some positional traders.
Short
by oktane
NZDUSD: HTF CURVE ANALYSIS (9D) - UPTREND✨ NZDUSD: HTF CURVE ANALYSIS (9D) ✨ (UPTREND) BLO2 @ 0.55692 ⏳ (DON'T FORESEE THIS ONE GETTING TRIGGERED) BLO1 @ 0.57812 - TRIGGERED BLO1a @ ???? - (✨NEW✨) I'LL UPDATE IN A TANDEM POST FOR THE LTF/ITF! PAY ATTENTION TP1 @ 0.61279 - TRIGGERED (POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE HIT AGAIN....PAY ATTENTION TP1a @ 0.6310 (Secret TP) TP2 @ 0.67027 TP3 @ 0.70657 TP3a @ 0.7133 (Secret TP) SLO1 @ 0.71665 ⏳ SLO2 @ 0.73662 ⏳ 🔑 BLO = BUY LIMIT ORDER HTF = HIGH TIME FRAME ITF = INTERMEDIATE TIME FRAME LTF = LOW TIME FRAME SLO = SELL LIMIT ORDER TP = TAKE PROFIT NOTE: THIS IS A LONG TERM TRADE.... ONCE IN FOR THE LONG....JUST STAY PUT! Long-term time frames (1 week to 1 year): — Shows the big picture, revealing major trends and economic factors. — Less volatile, price movements are slower and smoother. — Suitable for long-term trend trading and position trading. — Requires less frequent monitoring but may offer fewer trading opportunities.
Long
by oktane
NZD/USD powering higher as business confidence, milk prices surg- NZD/USD hits highs not seen since early January - Latest leg higher fueled by big improvement in New Zealand business confidence - Kiwi likely to outperform as long as traders continue to see a soft US economic landing About the only thing rising as fast as dairy prices is New Zealand business confidence right now, and both are beneficial for NZD/USD which has surged to seven-month highs. Who said Kiwis can’t fly? Kiwi flying on dairy strength, soaring business confidence As covered in a separate note last week, NZD/USD has been a major benefactor of recent US dollar weakness, not only enjoying tailwinds from narrowing interest rate differentials but also soaring dairy prices. You can now add bullish New Zealand business confidence to the growing list of Kiwi tailwinds. The confidence measure in the ANZ Bank New Zealand Business Outlook survey surged to a decade-high in August, surging 23 points to +51. Expectations for own activity also bounced, hitting fresh seven-year highs. The bounce in optimism followed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) first interest rate cut of the cycle earlier in the month, with the bank signalling a further 100 basis points of easing by the middle of next year. “Things are definitely looking up, albeit from a pretty dark place for many firms,” ANZ’s economics team wrote. “It wasn’t the Reserve Bank’s cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) that kicked off the lift – we saw an increase across much of the survey already in July, and the further large jump in August was already evident when the survey first opened at the very beginning of the month. The table below from ANZ details just how impressive the improvement in the surveys internal components was during the month. NZD/USD remains a buy-on-dips play Having chopped back and forth through former resistance at .6218 earlier this week, the data has seen the Kiwi rocket higher in Asian trade on Thursday, hitting levels not seen since early January, breaking through another layer of resistance at .6277 in the process. The question now is whether it can hold there? RSI (14) and MACD continue to provide bullish signals on the daily timeframe, although the former is now bordering on overbought territory. Even so, the inclination remains to buy dips rather than sell rallies in the near-term. With nothing else on the New Zealand calendar this week, the biggest threat to the bullish trend arguably comes from incoming US labour market data which has been highly influential on Fed interest rate pricing over recent months, placing emphasis on initial jobless claims that will be released later in the session. For a cyclical currency like the Kiwi, mild weakness screens as bullish. So too mild strength as both would allow the Fed to begin cutting rates without sparking fears of an impending recession. But if the data were to weaken dramatically, that would be problematic given the Kiwi comes across as a high beta play on the global economy. If the US were to fall into recession, narrowing interest rate differentials would be more than overridden by fears of weaker demand, hammering risker cyclical plays as a consequence. However, such an outcome screens as unlikely on this occasion, potentially opening the door for the Kiwi to keep rising. My preference would be to see how the data prints before entering positions. If the price pushes above .6277, you could buy with a stop below the level for protection. .63695 is one potential target. Alternatively, if it can’t hold .6277, you could sell with a stop above the level for protection targeting a pullback to either .6218 or .6150. -- Written by David Scutt
Long
by WHSelfInvest
Market Analysis: NZD/USD Regain StrengthMarket Analysis: NZD/USD Regain Strength NZD/USD is showing positive signs and might attempt a fresh increase above 0.6275. Important Takeaways for NZD USD Analysis Today - NZD/USD is correcting gains from the 0.6300 zone. - There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6255 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen. NZD/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of NZD/USD on FXOpen, the pair started a steady increase from the 0.6140 zone. The New Zealand Dollar broke the 0.6200 resistance to start the recent increase against the US Dollar. The pair settled above 0.6235 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the 0.6300 zone and is currently correcting gains. The pair corrected lower below the 0.6275 level. The pair also traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 0.6194 swing low to the 0.6298 high. The NZD/USD chart suggests that the RSI is now below 50. On the downside, there is major support forming near 0.6255 and a trend line. The next major support is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 0.6194 swing low to the 0.6298 high at 0.6235. If there is a downside break below the 0.6235 support, the pair might slide toward the 0.6195 support. Any more losses could lead NZD/USD in a bearish zone to 0.6160. On the upside, the pair might struggle near 0.6275. The next major resistance is near the 0.6300 level. A clear move above the 0.6300 level might even push the pair toward the 0.6340 level. Any more gains might clear the path for a move toward the 0.6400 resistance zone in the coming days. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen