NZDUSD: Brace for Another Bearish MovementNZDUSD: Brace for Another Bearish Movement
The NZDUSD pair has recently broken down from a minor bearish pattern near the 0.5750 level. With the US market reopening after a long weekend, the USD is expected to strengthen, increasing the likelihood of a downward movement for the NZDUSD, as illustrated in the chart.
Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is anticipated to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.75% from the current 4.25% on February 19, 2025.
This rate cut could further support the bearish trend.
You may find more details in the chart!
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USDNZD trade ideas
NZD/USD: Flipping the Script at .5700?NZD/USD struggled above .5700 recently, but now that it’s pushed through, maybe the opposite will hold true. Price action around today’s RBNZ decision—where the bank delivered a third straight 50bp cut and flagged at least two more, possibly three—suggests it might.
The post-decision dip below .5700 was snapped up quickly, casting doubt on the bearish signal from the three-candle evening star pattern completed Tuesday.
If the rebound holds, minor resistance sits at .5723 (Jan 24 high), with a tougher test at .5750, where last week’s rally ran out of steam. A break there puts .5800 and .5888 in play. It’s too early to say whether the rising wedge pattern the Kiwi is trading in will be respected, but that’s another thing for longs to watch.
The price has run a long way just while writing this, but dips towards and below .5700 look like solid long entry points, improving risk-reward while offering nearby levels for stops, like the 50DMA.Momentum indicators are flashing bullish, favouring dip-buying and bullish breaks in the near term.
If NZD/USD were to close beneath the 50DMA, the bullish bias would be nixed.
Good luck!
DS
Bullish continuation?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) has bounced off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 0.5691
1st Support: 0.5665
1st Resistance: 0.5753
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce?NZD/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.5664
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.5606
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 0.5745
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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NZDUSD OUTLOOKOn the monthly charts, we have a bearish outlook with signs of bullish correction. On the same monthly chart, we have a fresh order block indicating there is downside pressure.
Lately, the Kiwi has come under a lot of pressure since China cut their interest rates. Presently we are anticipating a further weakening of the kiwi across the board caused by weakening economic data from China.
On the daily charts, the Kiwi is set to form new lows confirming the medium term bearish trend as we wind down the year.
New Zealand dollar slips ahead of expected RBNZ cutThe New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.5700 in the North American session, down 0.62% on the day.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday for the first time this year. The RBNZ lowered rates by a half-point at the last meeting on Nov. 27 and the markets have priced in another half-point cut on Wednesday at 90%, which would bring the cash rate down to 3.75%. The central bank held rates for over a year but has aggressively cut rates by 125 basis points in the current easing cycle.
The RBNZ has telegraphed its plan to cut rates by a half-point on Wednesday and we could see a limited response from the New Zealand dollar, since the decision has been priced in. Still, the US/New Zealand rate differential will widen and that could spell headwinds in the near term for the New Zealand dollar, which plunged 13% in the fourth quarter 2024 but has gained 1.9% since Jan 1.
What can we expect from the RBNZ after tomorrow's anticipated rate cut? The RBNZ's updated forecasts are expected to show the cash rate declining towards 3 percent, but in smaller increments of quarter-point cuts. This will depend on the strength of the economy and the direction of inflation. Another factor which could affect the rate path is the new US administration which has already started imposing tariffs.
New Zealand is vulnerable to US tariffs as the US is its second-largest trading partner, accounting for about 12% of New Zealand exports. Even if the US does not target New Zealand with tariffs, the trade war between the US and China has clouded the inflation outlook and is will likely hamper global growth.
NZD/USD is putting pressure on support at 0.5691. Below, there is support at 0.5643
0.5781 and 0.5829 and the next resistance lines
Profitable Insights on NZDUSD: Time to Sell!As we dive into the NZDUSD currency pair, the prevailing strategy from our EASY Trading AI indicates a clear direction — a sell opportunity. The current entry price is set at 0.57344, with a take profit target at 0.5711 and a stop loss placed at 0.57535.
Why are we favoring a selling position? Well, recent market trends indicate several bearish signals. Economic data from New Zealand has shown signs of weakening, impacting investor sentiment. Additionally, speculation around interest rate movement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could drive the NZD lower against the USD.
With the market's volatility playing a crucial role, our analysis using the EASY Trading AI confirms that the setup is conducive for a potential downtrend. This strategy has proven beneficial by focusing on statistical backtesting to locate reliable entry and exit points, streamlining our risk management process.
As always, remember to stay informed about overall market conditions. Although this trading plan leans towards a sell, flexibility is essential. Markets can shift rapidly, and being prepared is part of a successful trading strategy. Happy trading!
Potential Retracement to 0.618 Before Uptrend ContinuationI believe the price will first decline to the marked level before reversing and moving back up. I have drawn a Fibonacci retracement, specifically highlighting the 0.618 level, which is often considered a strong support zone in technical analysis. If the price reaches this level, it may find buying pressure, leading to a potential bullish move. The arrows on the chart illustrate this possible scenario, where the price initially drops and then rebounds upward. However, if the support fails, a deeper decline could occur before any potential recovery.
#NZDUSD 4HNZDUSD (4H Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is forming an expanding pattern, indicating increased market volatility and potential bearish movement. This pattern suggests that price swings are widening, with lower lows and higher highs, often leading to a strong directional move once a breakout occurs.
Forecast:
A sell opportunity is anticipated as the expanding pattern signals possible downside movement, especially if price rejects a key resistance area.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: A sell position can be considered near the upper boundary of the expanding pattern or after confirmation of bearish rejection.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed above the recent swing high to manage risk.
- Take Profit: Target lower support zones based on previous price action.
Market Sentiment:
The expanding pattern reflects increasing price fluctuations, and if sellers gain control, a strong bearish move can follow. Confirmation through price action and volume analysis will help validate the trade setup.
NZDUSD Will Go Down! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for NZDUSD.
Time Frame: 5h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 0.571.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 0.566 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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NZD/USD SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
NZD/USD pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is clearly rising on the 12H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 0.563 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
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Could the Kiwi bounce from here?The price is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 0.5691
1st Support: 0.5667
1st Resistance: 0.5736
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
NZDUSD: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
NZDUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short NZDUSD
Entry Point - 0.5735
Stop Loss - 0.5776
Take Profit - 0.5657
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Long Trade
30min TF overview
Buyside Trade
Pair: NZDUSD
Date: Friday, 13th February 2025
Time: 8:30 PM (NY Time)
Session: NY to London Session PM
Trade Details:
Entry: 0.57188
Profit Level: 0.58820 (+2.85%)
Stop Level: 0.56837 (-0.61%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 4.65
Reson's Buyside trade is based on a bullish market structure, liquidity grabs, and demand zone reactions, for this buyside trade idea.