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U.S. Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

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USDNZD trade ideas

Using Probability to Guide My Long Positions on NZDUSDThe NZDUSD pair is showing bullish potential due to several key factors. Recent US inflation data came in softer than expected, which could lead to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Additionally, the Fed's recent interest rate cut is likely to weaken the US dollar, benefiting the New Zealand dollar. These factors, combined with NZDUSD's positive momentum over the past week and month, support a bullish outlook for the pair. To capitalize on this potential, I'm using probability-based analysis to enter long positions. By focusing on high-probability setups, I aim to achieve more consistent results over time. 12M: 2W: 1H: I’d love to hear your thoughts on the NZDUSD outlook and my trading strategy. Please share your insights or questions in the comments below!
Long
by Jasminex1x2
Kiwi H4 | Potential bullish bounce off 50% Fibo supportThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 0.6182 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 0.6141 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 0.6256 which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
1
NZD/USD Hits Supply Level,Potential Double Top Formation SignalsAs forecasted in our recent analysis, the NZD/USD pair has reached the key supply level around 0.6230. At this level, a potential double top formation is emerging, which, in confluence with the supply area, suggests that a retracement may be on the horizon. Adding further weight to the potential for a pullback, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are heavily long on the NZD/USD, which often serves as a contrarian indicator when combined with technical signals like the double top pattern. Today's focus for investors will be on the preliminary US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for September, which could provide more clues for the next movement in the NZD/USD pair. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to tick up slightly to 48.6 in September from 47.9 in August, signaling a continued contraction in the sector but at a slower pace. Meanwhile, the Services PMI is projected to slip marginally to 55.3 in September from 55.7 in August, indicating a still-expanding services sector, though at a slower rate. Given the current technical setup at the supply zone and the economic backdrop, we are looking for a short setup on NZD/USD, anticipating further downside pressure. The likelihood of a stronger USD could rise, particularly if today's PMI data supports the case for US economic resilience, contrasting with weakness in other major economies like Germany, where the Flash Manufacturing PMI has disappointed markets. As the EUR/USD continues to fall following poor German data, further strengthening of the USD could weigh on the NZD/USD pair, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The combination of retail traders' long positions, a possible double top formation at the supply zone, and positive momentum in the USD positions the pair for a potential retracement, offering a favorable opportunity for short-term bearish setups. Traders should watch today's PMI releases closely, as any stronger-than-expected results from the US could amplify USD strength and accelerate the anticipated pullback in the NZD/USD pair. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Buy to Sell NZDUSD!!!From a weekly perspective, we are coming from: - inverted volume gap - orderblock The DoL is to the upside Specifically the swing high points, Lq1 (0.62992) Lq 2 (0.63696) etc, Going into next week we expect a continuation of that bullish momentum to retest the weekly OB and then get the pullback. Daily Swig Structure = Bullish Daily Internal Structure = Bullish Daily Fractal Structure = Bullish We trade the immediate structure. Our Immediate structure is the internal Structure, which is bullish. This means that we have no business selling this currency, we should only be looking for buying opportunities for better odds of success. We know we are buying but where are we buying from? Price moves in phases: 1. Phase 1 - Break of structure. 2. Phase 2 - Retest of the previous structure. 3. Phase 3 - Continuation of the dominant trend. Since we are trading the internal structure,we have to examine the phase price is in: ===> we are in phase 2. As long as price has not taken out the Internal targeted High, we can assume that price is not yet done and we may actually get a bearish pressure. However, NZDUSD has show alot of bullishness and for a good reason. Looking at the weekly, we are coming off a strong Orderblock/support level. In essence, we have mitigated the first weekly imbalance and therefore the DoL is to the upside targeting the Swing Highs. That forms a good narrative and logic for why we may see a continued pressure. Now that we know the DoL is to the upside, we need to assess where we should buy from. Our lower timeframes gives us the answer to that, as in Set Up 1. Also, we should not that on the daily timeframe, we had a volume gap (0.62434 & 0.62496), if price closes above the gap, and breaks the Fractal High, we should look for entry opportunities at that Inverted FVG as in Set Up 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4hrly Swing Structure = Bullish 4hrly Internal Structure = Bearish 4hrly Fractal Structure = Bullish We trade the immediate structure. The 4hrly internal Structure is our immediate structure. Price is in phase 2. We need to get involved in phase 3 of price. We can see that the internal structure switched bearish. This could be interpreted as the first confirmation that the 4hrly swing pullback has started. The fractal market switching bearish was the first signal, but now the internal switching is a more powerful confirmation. Understanding this narrative, we may see price actually falling. What gives us the confidence that internal pullback is over? ===> When we get the Break of fractal targeted Low. We have to be smart about how we trade this; We have an orderblock above the fractal targeted high and price may reach this order block first before we see price melting to the downside. So in essence, we have to follow the fractal orderflow which is bullish until we get to our OB. If we close abov our 4H targeted high, our set up is invalidated Notice also how after taking the liquidity above the FOMC Candle price has started consolidating. this is building liquidity. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 15mins Swing Structure = Bullish 15Mins Internal Structure = Bullish 15mins Fractal Structure = Bullish What is the narrative? We need to buy, tap into a HTF OB then sell this market. But where are we buying from? Well, look at the 15 mins, we have two clean orderblocks
Long
by DagemFxStudio
NZDUSD Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Short
by ShahedZare
Kiwi H4 | Potential bullish bounceThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 0.6182 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 0.6096 which is a level that sits underneath a swing-low support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 0.6292 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
NZD/USD Eyes Reversal After Three-Day Rally,Supply Zone in FocusThe NZD/USD pair continues its upward momentum for the third consecutive day, trading around the 0.6250 mark during the early European hours on Friday. This resilience comes despite concerning economic data from New Zealand, which showed the economy contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2024, bringing the country perilously close to a recession. While this decline was less severe than the anticipated 0.4% contraction, it still underscores the economic challenges the nation is facing. On a year-on-year basis, the economy shrank by 0.5%, in line with market expectations. The weak GDP figures have solidified market expectations of another 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in October, as the central bank attempts to stabilize the slowing economy. However, despite these looming concerns, the NZD/USD pair has managed to maintain its bullish trajectory, likely supported by broad-based U.S. dollar softness and improving risk sentiment in global markets. From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD is currently trading within our identified Supply area. This zone has historically acted as a strong resistance level, and we are closely monitoring the price action for signs of a potential reversal. With the pair approaching key technical levels, a pullback could be imminent if bearish signals start to emerge. The 0.6250 region remains crucial, and a sustained move above this level would challenge our forecast for a reversal, while a rejection here could validate a short position. Traders should also keep an eye on upcoming economic releases and central bank decisions, which could further impact the outlook for the NZD/USD pair in the near term. As the RBNZ rate cut approaches, market volatility may increase, providing more clarity on the direction of the pair. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
NzdUsd Trade Update/IdeaJust an update on NU. I sent out NU shorts yesterday night seeing price had broken a HL. I was looking for price to crash from there but instead NU decided to get into a range just at resistance. 15m shows the new level of resistance for the range it's currently in. Price on higher time frames is still overall BEARISH so shorting the range was the best option once price had came back down below the 15m resistance range. Looking for a solid 1:3rr. If price can manage to break the support of the range then shorts here are still valid.
Short
by OfficialJ23
Change of character analysisgood morning traders, this is my analysis of NZDUSD that i forgot to share lol, its a Low probability trade with 65% of win, our key level of a downtrend was broken which confirmed a change of character so I anticipated a new move towards the upside and entered with a tight stoploss and waited for 1H to show us a bullish candle confirmation . The trade is still going up to our prediction reason why I decided to share this is to show people the importance of trend following and how import candlestick confirmation really is. never trade if the trend is not clear and never enter if you don't see a candle confirmation
Education
by StarleXtheTrader
2
NZ dollar eyes Fed meet, New Zealand GDPThe New Zealand dollar has posted gains on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6211 at the time of writing, up 0.44% on the day. Federal Reserve meetings are traditionally predictable affairs and don’t move the needle of the financial markets. Fed decision makers signal their intentions ahead of time in order to minimize market volatility. Today’s decision is up in the air and it remains unclear what the Fed is going to deliver – will it be a modest 25-basis point cut or a jumbo 50-bps slash? Market pricing of today’s cut has been swinging wildly, which could result in volatility after the decision. The Fed has maintained a stance of ‘higher for longer’ for over a year and has brought down inflation close to the 2% target. The expectation not long ago was that the Fed would kick off the new rate-tightening cycle with a traditional 25-bps cut. What has complicated matters is the recent deterioration in the US labor market. Job growth has fallen sharply and spooked the markets, with fears that the US economy could fall into a recession. The darkening employment picture has boosted the likelihood of a 50-bps cut, but such a deep cut could send a signal that the economy is in deep trouble and unnerve investors. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the Fed’s ‘dot plot’, which will signal the expected rate path over the next few years as well as updated economic forecasts. The Fed is expected to be aggressive in its rate cuts, now that inflation is largely beaten and the employment picture has deteriorated. Overshadowed by the dramatic Fed meeting, New Zealand will release second-quarter GDP early on Thursday. The markets are bracing for a contraction in growth. In the first quarter, the economy showed slight growth of 0.2% q/q and 0.3% y/y. This is expected to fall to -0.4% q/q and -0.5% y/y. NZD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6199. Above, there is resistance at 0.6240 There is support at 0.6153 and 0.6112
by OANDA