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U.S. Dollar / New Zealand Dollar

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The "kiwi" sharply fell after the central bank's decisionAnalysis of NZD/USD: The "kiwi" sharply fell after the central bank's decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5% on Wednesday. The decision to maintain the interest rate was anticipated. However, market participants noted a shift in the tone of the RBNZ's official statements. In May, the bank indicated that the tight policy would continue as long as necessary, but now it is open to easing the restrictive monetary policy if inflation slows down. As a result, market participants are now considering the possibility of a nearer-term rate cut, which led to a decline in the New Zealand dollar relative to other currencies. Specifically, against the US dollar, the "kiwi" fell by approximately 0.75%. Will the decline continue as the situation develops? According to the technical analysis of the NZD/USD chart today: → In 2024, the exchange rate dynamics are significantly influenced by interactions with the levels: 0.62150 (resistance), 0.58850 (support), and 0.60500 (which acts as a pivot between support and resistance, as indicated by the black arrows). → Bullish sentiment prevailed in the market since May, resulting in the formation of an upward blue channel on the chart. However, the bulls were unable to break through the 0.62150 resistance, and now the median of the blue channel serves as resistance (indicated by the blue arrow). Considering the prospect of further NZD/USD price decline, it is important to note obstacles in the path of the bears in the form of supports: → from the lower boundary of the blue channel; → from the 0.60500 level, around which the price has fluctuated since the beginning of the year; → from the psychological level of 0.6. Therefore, technically, it is possible that the downward momentum created today due to the RBNZ decision may weaken when attempting to break through these supports. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
NZDUSD H4 | Bearish reversalBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 0.6147, which is a multi-swing high resistance and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our take profit will be at 0.6106, an overlap support level close to 50% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be at 0.6193, an overlap resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
RBNZ: Hawkish hold likely but NZD risks are skewed lowerToday’s RBNZ rate decision could be an nothing-burger or a very big deal. I doubt we’ll see anything in between. There are no updated forecasts, nor a press conference from RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr. Just a statement. The last time that occurred it was one of the shortest updates in history. Risks for NZD/USD appear skewed to the downside considering the RBNZ surprised hawkish just six weeks ago. With little top-tier data since, and the important Q2 New Zealand inflation report not due until this time next week, a repeat performance comes across as likely. With two-year Kiwi interest rate swaps sitting at multi-month lows, it may encourage the bank to retain a hawkish tone given it flows through to most New Zealand mortgages, and therefore important for monetary policy transmission. But everyone can see the deterioration in the New Zealand economy. It may not be in recession but it might as well be given the data flow outside of GDP. The only thing standing between the RBNZ and a rate cut is sticky domestic inflation. With only a one-in-three chance given to a rate cut when the RBNZ next meets in August, should the RBNZ surprise with a conditional easing bias in the final paragraph of today’s statement, it could lead to an abrupt decline for NZD/USD. That’s why risks appear skewed in that direction. It has a track record for delivering unexpected surprises. When it last met in May, the RBNZ simply said policy “needs to remain restrictive”. For NZD/USD, support is located at .6105, the 200-day moving average at .6073 and at .6050. On the topside, .6150 and .6218 are the initial levels to watch. Should we see a big deviation following the statement, I expect it to be faded considering the far more important data releases for markets this week is yet to arrive, US CPI on Thursday. DS
by FOREXcom
NZDUSD: Profit taking into RBNZ decisionNZDUSD – technical overview Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action. R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong R1 0.6200 – Figure – Medium S1 0.6048 – 2 July low – Medium S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong NZDUSD – fundamental overview There is no change expected from the RBNZ today, though we have seen profit taking into the event risk. We've also seen some Kiwi selling on the New Zealand Treasury's reporting of weaker sales, with consumers experiencing hardship. Absence of first tier data on Wednesday’s calendar will leave the focus on another round of Fed Chair testimony and some Fed speak. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
NZD edges lower ahead of RBNZ decisionThe New Zealand dollar is steady on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6115, down 0.16% in the European session at the time of writing. The New Zealand dollar looked sharp last week against the slumping US dollar, climbing 0.88%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold its cash rate at 5.50% for an eighth straight time when its meets early on Wednesday. The RBNZ has been unwilling to shift away from its ‘higher for longer’ stance, despite the worsening economic downturn. The services and manufacturing sectors are both showing contraction and consumer and business confidence has been weak. The economy posted annual growth of only 0.3% in the first quarter after two quarters of contraction, which is a technical recession. The weak New Zealand economy badly needs a rate cut to kick-start growth, but the RBNZ’s first priority is to bring inflation back down to the target band of 1% to 3%, preferably around the 2% midpoint. Inflation eased from 4.7% to 4.0% in the first quarter but this is still above the target band. What can we expect from the central bank? With a rate hold widely expected at Wednesday’s meeting, the focus will be on the tone of the rate statement. At the previous meeting in May, the RBNZ projected that it wouldn’t lower rates until the third quarter of 2025 and the economy may have worsened since then, which could delay a rate cut even further. I expect that the message from Wednesday’s meeting is that rates will not drop before the inflation picture improves and the RBNZ could warn that rate hikes remain on the table. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6114. Below, there is support at 0.6079 0.6180 and 0.6215 are the next lines of resistance
by OANDA
Neutral Strategy with a Buy Outlook, High Risk For PlacementsStrategy: Neutral | Outlook: Buy | Risk for placing orders: High Trend Identification: The main market trend is bearish, with the current secondary trend showing a short-term upward trajectory. Prices are moving in the upper zone of the downward channel near the support levels of the secondary trend. Investors should be cautious due to the existing accumulation observed in the market. Fibonacci Retracement: Significant levels with increased risk for trading placements are between 0.60062 and 0.60788, with the risk decreasing above 0.61237 and below 0.59545. Fibonacci Expansion: Critical resistance points are at 0.62641, 0.63819, and 0.65726. These levels can be used to delineate a potential upward price movement. Technical Indicators: Technical indicators show increased risk for trading placements in the current phase due to divergence from the main trend. Detailed Analysis Trend Identification The dominant trend in the exchange rate chart is downward. The current secondary short-term trend in the exchange rate chart is upward. Within the main downward trend channel, exchange rate prices are moving upwards in the upper zone. Within the secondary upward trend channel, exchange rate prices are moving upwards in the lower zone. Movement near the lower zone of the secondary trend channel could indicate an imminent reversal against the main price trend direction. The lower zone of the trend channel is considered a support level. Current market conditions contain relative risk for trading placements. Fibonacci Levels of Support and Resistance Fibonacci Retracement Using the Fibonacci Retracement tool, we aim to identify critical support levels and areas with increased risk for trading placements. Applying the Fibonacci Retracement tool to the upward exchange rate trajectory helps define the levels to which the rate can move down without the current price trend being considered reversed. Specifically, under current exchange rate conditions, this point is around 0.60062. The potential for breaking this support point and continuing price movement below 0.60062 requires great caution as it could indicate a trend reversal and significant losses for investors who have placed buy orders. Conversely, breaking this level means the continuation of the main downward price direction. From the study of the Fibonacci sequence on this currency pair, two important levels emerge that need to be mentioned. Trading placements at any point within these two levels carry increased risk due to pressure accumulation. This range is defined by the levels 0.60062 and 0.60788. Risk decreases above the 0.61237 limit for buy orders and below the 0.59545 limit for sell orders. Fibonacci Expansion The use of the Fibonacci Expansion tool aims to identify resistance levels. Based on the latest upward movement in the price chart, these levels can be used to estimate the range of a potential upward price movement. The resistance levels that seem to exist, as well as their distance from the current price, are as follows: A) 0.62641 – 150 pips B) 0.63819 – 267 pips C) 0.65726 – 457 pips Technical Indicator Analysis Moving Averages Current exchange rate prices are between moving averages. The distance from the current price to the moving averages is insignificant, and no conclusions can be drawn. Visualizing the moving average results shows that price movement is not currently aligned with the main trend. However, there may be points in the coming days that could be utilized for trading placements. MACD The MACD is marginally positive and moving sideways with unsatisfactory momentum. Visualizing the MACD results does not show deviations from the price trend, which could indicate a potential price trend reversal. MACD results indicate that current price movement is not evolving according to the main trend, as significant pressure accumulation is observed on the price chart. Moving averages and MACD indicate that the probability of trading placement under current market conditions contains high risk. This conclusion is drawn from the fact that technical indicators do not provide results harmonizing with the prevailing price trend and indicate indecisiveness in trend
by Forex_Analytica
Kiwi H4 | Falling to 50% Fibonacci supportThe Kiwi (NZD/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 0.6098 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 0.6059 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 0.6147 which is a pullback resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM