USDRUB LIKELY GOING TO NORTH GRADUALLYLooking at the chart and with the ascending triangle, there is likely chance that RUB will continue to rise
USDRUB_TOD trade ideas
USDRUB long-term view and Fibonacci levelsSince 2014, we have had four impulses that have led to the weakening of the Russian ruble.
Setting the Fibonacci level shows that the USDRUB pair makes a pullback to 61.8-78.6% of the Fibonacci level after the bullish pulse.
We had resistance around the 80,000 level in the previous eight years, which was broken in February this year.
The last bullish impulse was to reduce the value of the Russian ruble by 98% (154,100) on March 7 from the value from the beginning of the year 74,000.
The current pullback lowered the pair USDRUB to 97,500 in the zone between 61.8-78.6% Fibonacci levels.
We should now see consolidation in this zone or a new bullish impulse according to this pattern.
If we set up big Fibonacci with a minimum from 2014 and a maximum current in 2022, the potential support zone is between 60,000 and 80,000 levels.
USDRUBRussian ruble targets 83.6-92.1 then 44.5-38.7.
Each level is calculated from 2008 in log scale.
USDRUB_TOM bearish divergenceUSDRUB_TOM hit a megaphone uptrend resistance line and bounced off closing a first red candle in a month. bearish divergences with RSI and MACD in a day chart. Consider short selling in tactical perspective by end of Feb, although it's still in uptrend mid-term
USDRUB_tom - bearish reversal, or uptrend continuationThere seems to be a top diamond pattern indicating a bearish reversal in general, however the price broke resistance line which might point to a continuation of the uptrend with target between 76 and 77... just posting for information purpose
USDRUB sellRussian ruble is in the sell zone from now.
I expect price to take liquidity reaching price range from 44.31 to 51.58.
After will look for buys till at least 2.0 fibo level - 137.14. Max target will be 172.40
Good luck:)
#USDRUBEconomic pressure from developed countries was unprecedented. The Russian Federation has become the absolute record holder in terms of the number of sanctions imposed on it, bypassing countries such as North Korea and Iran.
In response to the sanctions policy, the ministers limited the capital account, greatly inflated the interest rate and allowed commercial banks to introduce a commission for storing dollars and euros (about 12% per year), without the possibility of withdrawing cash (only in rubles, at the rate of the Central Bank) .
Naturally, a cash currency market appeared, the spread of which at the current price is about 10 rubles.
The high volatility of the national currency and the withdrawal of Western firms hit imports catastrophically, while exports continued to bring in large foreign exchange earnings due to high energy prices.
Thus, we got an artificial strengthening of the ruble, for which we created all the necessary macroeconomic conditions - a huge positive trade balance. The state budget also remained in surplus for a long time.
After the onset of 2023, all past "pros" for the ruble were not viable. The Central Bank lowered the key interest rate to 7.5%, the trade balance has ceased to be published since March 2022. Thus, we observe 2 important factors:
1) The state budget deficit, which in January already received 65% of the entire projected deficit for 2023.
2) QE, which was launched by the Central Bank to finance budget gaps through REPO.
Of course, the government has a special fund to cover the budget deficit, but its liquid part is 6.5 trillion rubles, while the budget deficit, only in January, amounted to 1.76 trillion.
In this case, the government has already begun sequestering the budget, with the exception of military and power items. However, this is not enough in the face of the loss of major sales markets and declining energy prices.
Gas prices in Europe fell below $600, and URALS oil fell below $60, although back in November they were $83.
Under these conditions, the government is left with few options:
1. Significantly reduce military spending and neutralize the budget deficit.
2. Significantly weaken the ruble to restore lost income.
3. Strengthen the hidden QE program.
4. Spend the entire stabilization fund.
I would like the reader to understand that there is a social contract in the Russian Federation - although social security is insignificant, and payments are minimal, they must be carried out impeccably, since violation of this contract entails political risks.
All 4 options, with the exception of the 1st, look the most realistic, with a possible combination. Under these conditions, I do not see other scenarios, except for the continuation of the trend for the weakening of the Russian currency.
Even in the event of an end to the conflict, a reduction in government spending on military needs and a partial lifting of sanctions, Europe is unlikely to allow the restoration of the former sales markets for Russian energy resources and Europe's trend towards diversifying supplies is unlikely to change, it remains only to look for new ones. However, Russia has already lost part of the most solvent market.
Strengthening is possible, but this requires a strong position on the part of the Central Bank, which must again raise the interest rate and hold it for a long time, but in the current macroeconomic conditions this looks unlikely, although such a development cannot be ruled out.
Technical picture:
After a false breakdown of the main resistance 79.6 - 86.1, the price returned under it and now it acts as the main reference point for market participants.
In the same area, the previous price pattern passes, which now acts as a resistance line.
Last year, a new price model was formed to reduce the value of the US currency.
Also, we have a dollar support level at 51.4 - 48.7.
Therefore, I recommend to closely monitor the area of the past resistance level, at the moment the picture tells us, at a minimum, about trading in a range and or a possible further strengthening of the ruble.
However, it is the fundamental picture that tells us about
reverse.
BTC resistanceGenesis goes bankrupt and the price soars. The price is coming up to the golden pocket and I think it'll get a pull back around the 23k mark. The measured move off the descending wedge is 30k
Short term short, mid term long, long term short... still have "TA hope" that till drop down to that 9.8k to fill the open CME gap. This is caution zone for new entries... some missed the boat.
Compare when 3 arrows capitol filed bankruptcy.. short push up and then drop again.
Compare this to 2019 when BTC dipped and had the breakout running from 3k up to 14k, then dropped back down to 3k.
Major adoption still isn't here just yet. This is the year to accumulate as much as you can before the boom
Just marking some areas of interestI don't trade FX so this is just training for me.
Volume spike before the big surge to upper 60's / lower 70's has not seen corresponding high volume sell off yet, which alongside ongoing consolidation leads me to believe we are still not out of gas. I would like to see 80 level reclaimed.
BUY RUBjust look at that, just look at it!! would you look at that, ooo look at it, just look at er.
USDRUB_TOM impulse wave 3Post downtrend breakage summer 22, consider uptrend is in progress with impulse wave 3 hasn't exhausted yet. Currently per my assumption it's in minor correction wave 4 of the uptrend impulse wave 3. Near-term target is either 66.45, else - 64.92. Mid-term target is around 76.9 - 77.4
USDRUB_TOM no H&S so farThere is no head and shoulders in four hour time frame so far: supposedly head is equal to left shoulder height and the right shoulder is getting shaped on low volume. I am neutral on this chart pattern, just publishing FYI
USDRUB_TOM supposedly breakout of triangle resistance lineIf USDRUB breaks out triangle resistance line on four-hour time frame, next target supposedly should be 79? I am neutral though on this pattern, just publishing FYI
forex usd rubits so hard to find but it possible will be increase till 73 after that we have pullback
so u should be carefull
at all its so good
USD/RUB broke out! Hello dear trader ! Russian rubble / US
Dollar pair breaking out of ascending triangle , closed above with volume support and going higher ! Targets : 77-84-94 ! Not financial advice
RUBUSD The "Strongest Currency of 2020" According to SomeI recently read something where it was noted that the ruble is the strongest currency of 2020.
Would YOU trade your dollars for rubles?
I didn't think so. Yawn.
USDRUBZone between 72-75 it should be happen have resistance there to rubble to strong again but our sight on the biggest resistance like 90
For long term and take a managment
USDRUB might reach 68-70If a breakout out of the ascending pattern happens, we may see a bull run to 68-70. Note that breakout may happen not now, but after another small correction.
short on USDRUBBearish exhaustion
Probably gonna fall massively
I am hence short on USDRUB
i.e. bullish on RUB and bearish on USD
