GOLD AND IRON COUNTRIES WILL BUY PAPER CountriesLUXCASH LLC Global Macro Report
Bangkok, Thailand: News Update from:
Government Treasury Risk Analyst JULIAN MURTAGH-LUX I
Date: 7/19/22
Time: 9:07 PM ICT
Ticker Updates:
WTI: 101.51 USD (-1.07%)
Brent: 105.2 USD (-1.04%)
Gold: 1,712.48 USD (.20%)
Silver: 18.79 USD (.66%)
USDJPY: 137.599 (-.52%)
EURUSD: 1.02337 (.93%)
GBPUSD: 1.20123 (.57%)
BTCUSD: 22,151 (3.17%)
ETHUSD: 1,538 (4.51%)
*I apologize for the short post, I will try to make a 5-10 page report soon with more in depth analysis and wider scans on the markets with technical graphs and currency inflow and outflow measurements.
First of all, I would like to take the time to say a prayer for the people of the world suffering from the Government Corruption, Satanism and Child Abuse. My heart is with you all and I pray for your health.
We are seeing heat waves across Europe which is causing a psychological uptemp in aggression amongst these nations, we are as a result seeing a risk off tone from the USD and a deployment of capital into other fiats such as AUD, JPY, EUR and GBP. Additionally, BTC and ETH saw decent boosts with heavy booms on MATIC. This is following fundamental news that MATIC is working with DIS (Disney) for NFT’s on their blockchain. As said before, I see MATIC as a high competition factor for ETH with a long term possible overhaul against ETH. We are seeing decent boosts on ETH, but the fraction in the ETH community is quite apparent where the POS vs POW (Proof of Stake vs Work, a mining mechanism to authenticate transactions) become a major argument in the space. Personally, it seems very apparent to me that greedy miners are charging an arm and a leg for a simple ETH move and for this reason I hold 0 ETH and only trade it on leverage. I will admit I dipped my toes in the leverage markets briefly and got half burned and half soothed by the markets. I saw a very high ROI on a simple deposit, but this can compound for better or worse if risk is not properly analyzed. I still keep 97% of deposits in dark pool money wallets and do not even look at if (this is my daughters retirement fund.)
On a large scale we see that Ukraine vs Russia is causing a global upheaval of seismic proportions and this is causing a flee to commodities, bonds and FX. I personally believe we saw a dead cat bounce on the Equity sector and there is more pain to come. I see the main turning point occurring in Q4 2022. We are seeing Russia meet with African leaders to export vital food resources such as grain and wheat to make sure the flow of food is consistent. At this point, we are seeing a Russia, China, India, Iran and Brazil pact forming against the West (USA and Europe.) I suspect that cross border payments are actually being done in alternative currencies from the dollar and the rise in the DXY is just an artificial long before we see a de-dollarization of the world. This to me is similar to the 2008 crisis where the LIBOR rate was manipulated by the City Of London Bankers to keep housing mortgages flowing, but as defaults rose, the rate could not be suppressed anymore. As I have said before, I see this default cycle occurring with nations and not households. I am suspecting we will see a Central Bank collapse in many countries and these Gold and Iron backed countries such as Russia and China come up and sweep up the holdings for pennies on the dollar. Additionally, I think a transition to a semi-crypto payment system will be apparent. I think that most central banks and multinational firms are actually using XRP for cross border transactions.
It is also interesting to see the bifurcation in the crypto sphere where LTC is being delisted (Bitkub to mention one) due to the Mimble Wimble privacy upgrade which makes LTC compete with the likes of XMR and DASH. Lastly, Mike Saylor mentioned ADA might be a security and Hoskinson responded with a violent retort. I must admit, I take Saylor’s side, not from the definitive standpoint, since we know only the SEC knows what a security is (half-joke), but it is clear, the SEC will not touch BTC and has outright labeled it a Commodity to be ruled by the CFTC. Let us not forget, ETH had an ICO. ICO’s to me scream securities, they are basically like IPO’s. If you are caught funding or promoting unregistered securities, the SEC will hunt you down and hawk you like a bat out of hell, and that is to put it nicely. ADA also had an ICO. If you think of things through the eyes of the public, I am sorry you will never find the full truth. You must look at things through the eyes of a dark pool money hedge fund manager on the top floor of a London or Hong Kong skyscraper. Then you will understand that pump and dumps are the best way for them to move money from low to high states of energy.
Last point, it looks like Voyager and Celsisus are filing for bankruptcy and stole all their clients' money. Just to give everyone a heads up, Gemini lends to Genesis who lends to Three Arrows, Three Arrows are who caused the bankruptcy of Celsius and Voyager since they were buying s*** NFT’s and leverage trading beyond reason.
KEEP YOUR FUNDS ON COLD WALLETS. PLEASE STAY SAFE AND REMEMBER, MORE THAN HALF OF THESE PEOPLE DO NOT WORSHIP GOD, THEY WORSHIP SATAN AND MONEY, WHICH IS WHY THEY ACT THE WAY THEY DO.
Peace and Love,
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED: JULIAN MURTAGH-LUX I
USDRUB_TOD trade ideas
Will the Russian Ruble keep appreciating vs other currencies?The truth is that the most likely answer is yes, the Ruble will keep going higher. Russia is a massive commodities exporter, from oil & gas, to wheat, and therefore there is a constant bid for its currency due to the natural demand for its resources. As Russia is hit by several sanctions, it is very hard for them to buy stuff from outside of Russia, and therefore even less money is flowing out of the country. The government has also imposed capital controls, and it is hard for its citizens to sell their currency for USD, EUR etc.
The Central bank also raised rates from 5% in 2021 up to 20% post invasion, and have now dropped rates to 11%. Even though that's still a pretty high number and inflation in Russia is much higher than 11%, however this rate is still much higher than what many countries are offering. A 9% cut in interest rates couldn't even bring the currency down, a major sign of strength.
However in my opinion the most important aspect is that Russia has very low debt and could take the hit, while most other countries can't raise rates without breaking everything. They also have significant amounts of Gold, and what remains to be seen is what happens to their FX reserves that have been frozen. If they totally lose these reserves then the currency could suffer, but for now it is possible that they get their reserves back. Forcing 'hostile' countries to pay them in Rubles isn't as important as people think, as they could have accepted payments in Euros for example, and then used that money to buy their own currency. This was mostly a power play and a statement that energy sanctions are futile.
Now in terms of TA, the Ruble got insanely oversold after having a huge breakdown (USDRUB breaking out), but when the dust settled, many people who were short were forced to cover as their brokers wouldn't allow them to trade the Ruble. Many accounts were probably blown up due to the whole sanctions, capital controls and so on, that made it very hard for traders to go long or short. As USDRUB started coming down, longs were getting crushed and everyone had to start closing their positions. The market became illiquid and unstable, and mainly damaged those betting against the Ruble.
At the moment USDRUB has gotten incredibly oversold, as it broke the S3 Yearly Pivot, as well as the S3 Monthly Pivot, and broke the 2020 Covid low, as well as the 2017-2018 lows. The bounce is mostly driven by technical reasons (taking out stops & being oversold), as well as the 3rd rate cut. However in terms of TA, it looks pretty likely that it is heading for 36$. The whole reversal from 160 all the way down here is still very bearish and an indication that lower prices are coming. The rejection at the diagonal resistance is pretty bearish, and the entire 2013-2015 rally / breakout could be reversed. In the short term the market could trade between 55 & 70, but in the long term it is going to go lower.
RUBUSD: - a technical price correctionI made my last Ruble review before February 24th, so there was a downtrend after that. However, the goal was ultimately achieved twice (I circled).
Now I see a significant increase against the backdrop of political manipulation, however, the market is the market and after a strong increase, a correction is always implied.
Target - 0.013600
USDRUB made 7 year lows but getting close to long-term buy levelThe USDRUB pair hit this week the lowest levels since June 2015, marking a remarkable turnaround for the Ruble (drop on the pair around -65%) since the March 2022 High at the peak of the Russia - Ukraine invasion.
With this massive drop, the pair is getting very close to the Higher Lows trend-line that started during the subprime mortgage crisis in the U.S. on July 2008. This chart is on the 1W time-frame (log), with the RSI also approaching its own multi-year Support Zone. With the April - May 2015 Support Zone (made during another period of huge uncertainty in Russian economy) also close around 49.00, it is obvious that the price is near the most significant long-term Support cluster.
As a result, our long-term strategy on the pair has turned heavily bullish, targeting at first the Pivot trend-line (71.00) that should act as the first Resistance. The pattern is invalidated if we get a monthly candle closing below the 2008 Higher Lows trend-line.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The final countdownImportant to understand two things about the Russian Ruble:
1. There is no physical limit to how high USDRUB will go in wave 5. With exports slashed down and Crude ready to crash back to 10$ we can easily see USDRUB at 200, 300, even 500, why not.
2. The move that's about to happen is the last one in the 14-year long sequence, and it will be fully retraced when the trend changes. A spectacular comeback to below 50, dipping below 39.99 should be expected in the next 2-3 years.
BTC looking at the RUBLE chart1 have 3 chart lines
top is the btc price
middle is the inverted RUBLE/USD chart
bottom is the BTC/RUBLE chart
Everybody is watching the BTC price but don't realize what has happened.
There is usually good opposite correlation between the DXY and BTC. (its like a mirror image) when DXY goes up, BTC goes down and when DXY goes down, a day later the BTC goes up... until a couple months ago. now they are not so related anymore.
When US put sanctions on Russia the price of their dollar the RUBLE dumped hard. since then the price not only recovered but it doubled.. but why
What I found is that since the start of the sanctions, the RUBLE has now been the opposite correlated currency that seems to predict the BTC movements. I think they are controlling the direction
If you see, I have INVERTED the middle chart which is the RUBLE/USD and paired it up with the bottom chart line which is BTC/RUBLE... almost identical.
While BTC has NOT broke that bullish trend to run up for a bull trap yet, the BTC/RUBLE and the RUBLE/USD inverted chart has