TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #52👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let's delve into the analysis of Bitcoin and the key cryptocurrency indices. Today, we have a detailed analysis on hand, and I want to start from scratch by drawing all the lines for Bitcoin and other indices so we can get informed about the higher time frames without drawing unnecessary lines.
🔍 Let's get into the analysis, where the charts will be examined in weekly, daily, and 4-hour time frames.
🦁 Bitcoin Analysis
📅 Weekly Time Frame
Let's explore the weekly timeframe. As you can see, the market trend is bullish, and since the price reached the low of 16,000, a bullish structure has formed, and the price has moved upward along a curved trendline. The trendline isn’t very clear on the chart, so I'll put another chart below for you if needed.
✔️ Currently, after two powerful bullish legs that occurred after breaking 31,000, the price has reached the resistance of 104,000 and has entered a corrective phase. The price was moving up with high momentum and no divergence until it reached 71,000, but the next peak at 104,000 was accompanied by divergence, and now the RSI is near triggering this divergence.
⚡️ Overall, the price is in a very critical and sensitive area, and breaking the 44.83 area on the RSI could activate the divergence, and simultaneously, the price may also break the curved trendline, which is not a good sign for the bullish trend and could indicate a trend reversal.
🔼 We must consider that the last bullish leg from 54,000 to 104,000 was much shorter compared to the leg from 31,000 to 71,000. However, I personally see the trend as bullish until the price drops below the 71,000 area, and until a lower high and low are seen below this area, the trend will remain bullish.
📊 If the price sharply falls, breaking 54,000 will confirm a trend change. However, we can get confirmation of a trend change sooner in lower time frames, which I will discuss in the continuation of the analysis.
💥 But everything is set for Bitcoin to rise. The RSI oscillator is at its main bottom, and in this bullish cycle, each time the RSI reached this area, the next bullish leg started. On the other hand, the price has reached the curved trendline, and there is positive news like Bitcoin's strategic reserves in the US, so conditions are ripe for a rise.
📈 Thus, with a break of 104,000, we can confirm the next leg and buy Bitcoin targeting a new ATH.
🎯 To find the target, we can use Fibonacci Extension. As you see, the price has moved up to the 0.618 Fibonacci level and reached the 104,000 area, currently in a corrective phase to 0.382. If it can rise above 0.618 again, the next targets are 0.786, 1, and 1.272, which correspond to areas 123,000, 154,000, and 204,000, respectively.
👀 Let’s go to the daily timeframe to observe the price details more closely.
📅 Daily Timeframe
In the daily timeframe, as you can see, in the bullish leg that occurred after breaking 71,000, the price moved upward and reached 106,000 and, after breaking the 0.236 Fibonacci overlapping with 92,000, went into a deeper correction to 0.5.
⭐ In this corrective leg, the price has created a descending trendline that has been touched several times by the price and is now still engaging this area. If it can break this trendline, the correction will end, and we could see a price increase again.
🧩 In the RSI oscillator, a resistance has formed at 52.26, and breaking this area could bring bullish momentum into the market, which increases the likelihood of breaking the trendline and activating its trigger.
⚡️ There is also a temporary support in the area of 82,124, and if the price gets rejected from the trendline, the likelihood of breaking this support increases, and the price could undergo another bearish leg down to areas 76,000 or 71,000.
🛒 Currently, for buying Bitcoin in spot, the first trigger is the breaking of 87,740, which is a trendline trigger and will be activated after the trendline is broken. The main trigger will be after breaking 106,546, which is the ATH, and a new bullish phase could start.
☘️ The next trigger for Bitcoin is further falls and reaching lower support areas. If the price reaches areas 76,000 or 71,000 and forms a structure there, with the break of the ceiling of the structure, we can carry out a spot purchase, and if this happens, I will specify its triggers in future analyses.
⏳ 4-Hour Time Frame
Let's go to the 4-hour timeframe to review the triggers for Bitcoin futures.
🎲 As you see in this timeframe, a descending triangle has formed, and the price is moving inside it. The dynamic line of this triangle is the daily trendline, and the static line of this triangle is the 81,509 area, which both are important areas and can have a significant impact on the price.
✔️ We are currently in the latter half of the triangle, which is why behaviors and irrational fluctuations have increased, and as you can see, the price has once broken the ceiling of this triangle but couldn’t reach the trendline break trigger and has returned to the triangle.
📈 Currently, for a long position with the break of 84,414, you can enter a position. This position is risky because the trigger is inside the triangle and will be a prelude to breaking the daily trendline. The next main trigger will be after breaking the trendline and activating the 88,344 trigger.
🔽 For a short position, the bottom 81,509 is a very important floor, and with the break of this area, the price can move towards the triangle's target and the 78,620 support.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
📅 Weekly Time Frame
Let's move on to the analysis of Bitcoin dominance. In the weekly timeframe, as you see, a slow and steady bullish trend has been created after breaking 47.33, moving upward along with a bullish trendline, and has once broken this trend from below but has returned above this dynamic area.
🧲 As long as this index is bullish in the bullish legs of the market, Bitcoin will move up more than altcoins, and the increase in Bitcoin dominance causes altcoins to behave very similar to Bitcoin, and it is less likely that the trends of altcoins and Bitcoin diverge.
📚 You can see the impact of this trend inside the Bitcoin and altcoin charts. Bitcoin has registered its previous peak at 106,000 and has recorded a much higher ATH compared to 69,000, but most altcoins in this leg that the market had didn't even reach their previous peaks.
✨ The trend is still bullish without any weakness, and recently, an important ceiling in the area of 60.37 has been broken and has pulled back to it, and now it is moving towards the next resistance, namely 71.43.
💥 But I think dominance will fall before it reaches 71.43 because the dominance is very high right now, and any correction that Bitcoin has causes very severe falls inside the chart, and well, when altcoins fall enough, whales and major investors will enter the altcoin market, which naturally causes Bitcoin dominance to fall.
🔑 So to know when major investors and whales enter altcoins, we have to wait until Bitcoin dominance falls, and this event is currently happening in the weekly timeframe after breaking the trendline and confirming a trend change below this trendline, and until then, Bitcoin will be the capital for better purchases.
📅 Daily Timeframe
Let's move to the daily timeframe. As you can see, after breaking the resistance of 60.37, dominance created a box between 60.37 and 62.16, and now with the break of the box's ceiling, a new bullish leg of dominance has started.
✔️ I usually analyze dominances only with simple tools like support and resistance, but now because I can't get any targets out for dominance, I took help from Fibonacci, and as you see, the potential resistances of dominance are 63.31, 65.15, and 66.49.
🔍 Currently, there is no sign of weakness or trend change in this timeframe, but if for any reason dominance falls and returns below 62.16, we will take the main confirmation of trend change from 60.37.
😎 Let's go to the 4-hour timeframe to find suitable triggers for these dominance futures.
⏳ 4-Hour Time Frame
In this timeframe, we have a temporary ceiling in the area of 63.02, and if it is broken, the price can continue its bullish movement.
💫 For dominance to fall, we currently don't have any triggers in this timeframe and have to wait for a bearish structure to form.
📈 Total2 Analysis
📅 Weekly Timeframe
Let's move on to the analysis of Total2. In this chart, we can very clearly see the impact of Bitcoin dominance on altcoins.
👀 As you can see, the conditions of Total2 are very similar to Bitcoin and are converging, but Bitcoin in the last bullish leg it had registered a new ATH, and Total2 could not do this. On one hand, Bitcoin has just reached its curved trendline and is reacting to it, but Total2 has broken this trend line and has performed a bearish leg. For example, Bitcoin has not yet reached the 71,000 area, but Total2 has long broken 1.21T and is moving towards the bottom of 816B.
🔑 The reason for all these events is that Bitcoin dominance is bullish and causes more money relative to altcoins to enter Bitcoin, and this also makes the bullish trend of Bitcoin more powerful than this index.
🛒 For buying altcoins, the triggers of Total2 are areas 1.21T and 1.61T, but until Bitcoin dominance falls and its trendline is broken, do not pay attention to these triggers and enter the market with Bitcoin triggers while dominance is bullish.
📅 Daily Time Frame
Let's move to the daily timeframe. Concurrent with the fall of Total2, a descending channel has formed, which in Bitcoin was a descending trendline, but here, as you can see, Bitcoin is involved in breaking the trendline and starting an upward wave, but Total2 has long been rejected from the trendline and is involved in breaking the middle line of the channel, which overlaps with the 961B area, and with the break of this area, the next price leg can start.
⚡️ This is another example of the impact of Bitcoin dominance on the market. I mentioned these examples to get you to take dominances seriously and know how important they are and can help us in analysis.
🔽 The trigger for the fall and bearish turn of Total2, as I said, is the breaking of 961B, and if this area is broken, the price can move to the static supports of 816B and 683B. The dynamic support is the bottom of the channel, which can act as a support to prevent the price from falling.
📈 For bullishness and buying spot, breaking 1.1T is suitable. Again, I remind you that until Bitcoin dominance falls, these triggers are not very useful and do not initiate the trend of altcoins.
⏳ 4-Hour Time Frame
Let's move to the 4-hour timeframe to review the triggers for futures.
⭐ In this timeframe, I don't have much to say, and I just want to specify the triggers for you. For a long position, the area of 1.02T is suitable, but it is better that this happens after breaking the channel, which would turn it into a better trigger. The main long position will occur after breaking 1.1T.
📉 But for a short position, we have a very good and important trigger in the area of 961B, and I suggest that you definitely have a short position on an altcoin if this area is broken.
✔️ USDT.D Analysis
📅 Weekly Time Frame
In the weekly timeframe, Tether dominance has created a large box between 3.78 and 6.21 and has been moving between these two areas since early 2024.
💥 On the other hand, it has a descending trendline that the price has touched twice, and now it has reached it for the third time. A trendline that has been reacted to twice is not a very reliable trendline, but if the price returns from this area this time, we can confirm that this trendline exists and is a dynamic supply area.
☘️ Currently, with the range box that has formed, we have a very easy job for Tether dominance. With the break of 6.21, we confirm bullishness, and with the break of 3.78, we confirm bearishness.
📅 Daily Time Frame
Let's move to the daily timeframe, where we can witness more details.
🎲 As you can see, the price is very close to the trendline that was evident in the weekly timeframe and can activate its trigger.
⚡️ If the trendline is broken, a very important trigger exists in the area of 5.68, and with the break of this area, we can get confirmation of the bullishness of dominance at least until the ceiling of 6.34.
🧲 On the other hand, if dominance is rejected from this trendline, with the break of 5.03, dominance can create another bearish leg down to 5.37 or 3.78.
💣 I have nothing else to say about Tether dominance because its trend is ranging, and its situation is clear for now, let's move to the 4-hour timeframe to review the triggers for futures.
⏳ 4-Hour Time Frame
In this timeframe, we can change the trigger for bullishness a bit and bring it to the area of 5.56. If this area is broken, dominance can start a bullish leg.
🧩 For Tether dominance to fall, we also have a riskier trigger in the area of 5.43, and the main trigger will still be the area of 5.03.
🚨 This was a complete analysis of Bitcoin and the indices. It had been a while since we had looked at the higher timeframes, so I decided to review all the symbols in three timeframes. I hope this helps you and you can use this analysis.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
