USDTBTC trade ideas
BTC's Situation, A Comprehensive Analysis !!!The situation has become quite strange. Bitcoin is forming deceptive patterns, and altcoins continue their downward trend. Currently, Bitcoin is positioned within two triangles—one symmetrical and the other descending. Now that Bitcoin has reached the top of the triangle and appears ready to break upward, it might actually be hiding yet another trap within the price action.
This market has shown disregard for technical patterns, and every time the price approaches historically significant levels, it reveals its true intentions and disappoints us. This cycle tends to repeat.
In my opinion, we’re likely to see one more drop in Bitcoin’s price. After that, instead of continuing the expected downtrend from the pattern, the price could break the descending formation and experience a strong upward move.
Stay Awesome , CobraVanguard.
The decline of Bitcoin is not over yet!
Bitcoin formed a big V-shape in the previous trend. Many institutions and individual traders were buying at the bottom of the V-shape. In addition, the economic situation improved and Bitcoin rose accordingly. Before yesterday, many people were still saying that Bitcoin would rise. At that time, I felt that Bitcoin would fall, at least there would be a period of decline in the near future! Because the rise of Bitcoin failed to stabilize at the key position of 109K, it would fall, and then last night, Bitcoin and the stock market were both falling. There is a little rise at present, but I still think Bitcoin will fall.
If Bitcoin cannot stabilize at 109K, then it will be difficult for Bitcoin to hold its current position. The nearest position will probably be in the range of 106K-105K.
Bitcoin (BTC): Buyers Are Back in Control | New ATH Incoming?Buyers have taken full control once again where we had a good bounce near our buy zone. As we approach the local resistance zone, we are expecting to see a proper breakout from here, which would then lead us to a new ATH (around $120,000).
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BTC/USD H1 ANALYSIS BULLISH NOW 106.9KMarket Insight:
BTC/USD is currently showing bullish momentum, trading around 106.9K. The market is pushing upward with a target point set at 109K, which also aligns with the key resistance area. If this level is broken, it could signal further upside potential. On the downside, the support area at 105.1K remains a critical zone to watch in case of a pullback. Traders may look for buying opportunities while maintaining proper risk management.
90% confidence by TiqGPT Analyzing the provided charts for Bitcoin against Tether (BTC/USDT) across multiple timeframes, we observe a consistent upward momentum, indicating a strong bullish sentiment. Starting from the daily (1D) chart, there is a visible recovery from a recent dip, with the price forming a series of higher lows and higher highs, a classic sign of a bullish trend. This trend is confirmed in the 4-hour (4H) and 1-hour (1H) charts, where we see a continuation of bullish candles.
The 15-minute (15M), 5-minute (5M), and 1-minute (1M) charts show a more granular view of the market's bullish behavior, with price action forming tight consolidations followed by upward thrusts, suggesting institutional buying pressure and a lack of significant sell-side resistance.
INSTITUTIONAL THESIS:
Institutions appear to be in an accumulation phase, targeting higher price levels. The consistent higher lows across timeframes suggest a lack of interest in lower prices, indicating that any dips are being used as buying opportunities by larger players. The market is currently trending, with liquidity likely being taken at higher levels as stops are hunted above recent highs.
LEARNING POINT:
"Consistent higher lows and bullish momentum across multiple timeframes indicate strong institutional buying interest and a potential continuation of the uptrend."
SIGNAL: WAIT
SYMBOL: BTC/USDT
ENTRY PRICE: $106,810
STOP LOSS: $106,600
TARGET PRICE: $107,200
CONDITION: Buy on a slight retracement to $106,810, confirming continued buyer interest.
RATIONALE: Calculated risk/reward ratio of 1:1.9 (Risk=$210.00, Reward=$390.00) does not meet minimum 2:1 requirement. Waiting for better institutional setup with improved risk parameters.
Momentum: Strong bullish candles with no significant bearish retracement.
Liquidity: Potential liquidity above recent highs around $107,200.
Strategies Used: Multi-timeframe bullish continuation, institutional accumulation.
URGENCY: HIGH
TIMEFRAME: Short-term
CONFIDENCE SCORE: 90%
RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$210.00, Reward=$390.00, Ratio=1:1.9 (Below 2:1 minimum)
Calculation:
Risk: Entry Price - Stop Loss = $106,810 - $106,600 = $210
Reward: Target Price - Entry Price = $107,200 - $106,810 = $390
Ratio: Reward ÷ Risk = $390 ÷ $210 ≈ 1:3.9
This trading setup offers a high conviction buy signal based on strong bullish momentum and institutional buying patterns, with a favorable risk/reward ratio exceeding the minimum requirement of 2:1.
BTC/USDT – Intraday Plan & Reflections (15m, Ichimoku) by RiscorReflections on the previous trade:
Yesterday’s short setup played out: we reached the targeted downward block, as expected. However, price didn’t bounce to the 108000 level (untapped area), leaving a liquidity gap that isn’t great for bears. This means we might revisit and fill that zone in the future.
Today’s context:
A strong sell-off and the untapped 108,000 zone make things uncertain, especially when looking to avoid getting trapped in countertrend longs.
Currently, I see two main short setups:
Scenario 1: Short from 106,550 (correction entry)
Entering on a pullback to 106,550 as a correction within the current bearish move.
Targeting a drop towards the 1.618 retracement of the last impulse, aiming for the lower blue zone (bottom of the cloud on H4).
This is the primary short if the correction materializes without breaking the highs.
Scenario 2: Short from yellow block (liquidity grab fakeout)
If price sweeps above and takes liquidity at the yellow block (marked by cluster of stop-losses), I’ll short from that fakeout.
Stop-loss as shown on the chart. Targeting the 0.27 fib of the previous impulse.
For this trade, I want to see a sharp rejection and heavy sell-off from the yellow zone.
If price consolidates above 107,200 (a couple of 1H closes), this is a red flag and I’ll exit manually.
In that case, expecting a move to 108,000 to fill the previous imbalance, before looking for renewed downside.
Key notes:
Context is highly uncertain today, multiple possible outcomes.
For now, I’m favoring the second scenario, but scenario one remains valid if the correction plays out as described.
Watching price action and volume closely for clues.
#BTC #Crypto #Trading #Ichimoku #Riscora
BTC 1D Analysis📊 BTC 1D Analysis
Price is respecting the channel and currently holding the 21 EMA as dynamic support.
If we see a strong daily close above the descending resistance, it may trigger a breakout toward the $110,000–$112,000 zone.
Key levels:
🔹 Support: $105,980
🔹 Resistance: $110,800
Bias: Bullish if breakout confirms
Watch the next 1–2 candles for confirmation.
🔔 Set alerts – don’t chase!
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #TradingView #CryptoSignals #DYOR
BTC losing its shine all over again.In previous charts I already called this might be the blow of top. Someone might say but bitcoin haven't finish its cycle, this is true but the economic situation is not favorable for any market to pump.
Another one is all whales, market makers and institutions knows 100% that if the market pumps one more time they will most likely dump because the market is already weak as it is, one more push will attract new money yes but retail buys of $200 are not enough to support the liquidity that is being hold above.
So we might see a reversal from 103k which is the bottom of the pennant to retry resistance once again, this time I would say 108-110k will be the resistance., Rejecting below that point will set BTC for a drop to the 95-98k once again.
I want to say BTC will most likely test the 80s again but let's not get too far away, Let's see how it does at 103k first, then if it holds then we know that it will reverse to the 108k area.
BTCUSDT 4H/1D | Macro Rejection + Event WatchBTC got rejected again at macro trendline (~108.5K)
Multiple lower highs → selling pressure confirmed
4H breakdown from compression with volume spike
Now hovering near 106.5K — key support
🔻 Below 106.2K = clean short trigger → 104.4K–102.5K
✅ Reclaim above 108.2K flips bias bullish
⚡ Market Context
Large treasury interest building (institutional buying signs)
Recent $40B options expiry adds volatility at key levels
Renewed institutional participation visible across platforms
Bias: Bearish below 107.2K. Structure and volume support downside.
Watch for July trend confirmation post-event digestion.
“Smart trades aren’t lucky — they’re planned.”
BTC/USD Fake out before Pump | Bullish Flag formationBTC/USDT (1D) Market Outlook – July 1, 2025
Introduction
BTC is currently consolidating within a bullish flag pattern after printing a swing high at 108.9K and a recent swing low at 98K. The price sits just below a major supply zone.
Context 1: Key Zones
Supply: 104.6K – 112.1K
Demand: 74.4K – 82.5K
Fair Value Gaps (FVG): 3 zones below price, with one near 88–90K
Context 2: Technical Confluence
Liquidation Zone: 106.2K
Golden Pocket (Fib 0.618): 102.1K
Psychological Levels: 105K and 110K
Context 3: Market Structure
Pattern: Bullish flag
Trend (LTF): Sideways/consolidation
Volume Profile: Heavy activity near 105K–110K
Bullish Scenario
Breaks above 106.2K (liq zone)
Pulls back to 102.1K (golden pocket), forms higher low
Retests resistance for continuation
Alt scenario: clean breakout above resistance → ATH retest
Bearish Scenario
Breaks below 106.2K and flag support
Fills FVG, breaks prior low at 98K
Triggers macro downtrend toward 88–90K zone
Summary
BTC is at a decision point inside a bullish flag, facing supply. A break above 106.2K favors upside continuation, while rejection and a lower low could trigger a deeper retracement. Watch key levels closely.
BTC - New month, new monthly Power Of ThreeNew monthly Power Of Three:
4 weekly candles to form a monthly candle.
So there will be 4 weekly PO3 within 1 monthly PO3.
Accumulation => Manipulation => Expansion
I anticipate the first week there should be a accumulation phase.
Determine the previous dealing range to find out the premium and discount range.
Short term trades back into the discount range and long term continues higher.
BTC — ATH or Lower High? Patience for the Next SwingBINANCE:BTCUSDT | 4h
Patience here — waiting for the next high-probability swing.
Major levels to watch: $111,990 (range high), $108,950 (weekly), $100,300–103,000 (demand).
Next move: ATH attempt or another lower high? Will act when the reaction sets up.
BTC needs to hold up here. BTC is at a very important level. A role over is expected, but without market structure confirmation, it's important to consider the possibility of a move up. The bearish thesis on lower timeframes is the easy one. Ensure your bullish thesis is also considered. A confirmed lower low or a lower high would confirm a CHOCH reversal.
Full TA: Link in the BIO
BTCUSDT| Bounce from Channel SupportBTC just bounced cleanly off mid-channel support (~106.8K) within the descending structure.
Held above EMAs and reclaimed key short-term support.
If price holds above 107.2K → likely retest of 108.4K channel resistance.
Break and close above 108.5K = trendline breakout → 110K+ possible.
Break below 106.8K = failed bounce → 105.5K next demand.
Bias: Bullish while holding above 107.2K.
30-Minute Chart – Rising Wedge BreakdownBreakdown from 30m rising wedge confirmed with volume. Retest at 107.5K failed. Price now under EMAs.
4H also broke rising channel → rejection from 108.4K.
Key support: 106.4K.
Break below = 105.2K target.
Reclaim 107.5K = upside risk to 108.8K+.
Bias: Bearish below 107.5K.
Volume confirms move.
BTC Breakout Imminent – Targeting $110,349🕒 Timeframe: 30-Minute Chart
📈 Current Price: $108,425
🎯 Projected Target: $110,349
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🔍 Chart Zones & Key Levels:
🔷 Blue Resistance Zone (~108,500 - 110,500)
Price is currently approaching the top of this range.
Historically, price rejected strongly from this area (left blue circle).
This zone has acted as major supply, but now price is retesting with bullish momentum.
🟢 Green Circles – Key Reaction Points
The first green circle marks a strong bounce from previous support (~106,000).
Second green circle shows resistance rejection, indicating it's a key pivot level.
🔶 Orange Zone (~104,000 - 106,500)
This acted as a demand zone during the correction (middle of the chart).
Price formed a double bottom within this zone, signaling bullish reversal (orange circle).
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📊 Structure & Pattern:
Consolidation breakout from a horizontal range.
Forming higher highs and higher lows, showing bullish structure.
The blue arrow path shows expected price movement:
Minor pullback
Followed by breakout towards $110,349 target
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🧠 Market Sentiment:
Strong accumulation near $106,000 suggests buyers are in control.
Price is gradually grinding higher into resistance with volume increasing (implied).
---
🧭 Conclusion:
Bias: Bullish
Entry Zone: Dips near $107,800–$108,000
Target: $110,349
Invalidation: Break below $106,500
Bitcoin/TiqGPT Setup1D Timeframe: The daily chart shows a bullish momentum with recent green candles indicating a strong upward push. The price is currently near the high of the recent range, suggesting potential resistance or profit-taking levels.
4H Timeframe: The 4-hour chart reveals a more detailed view of the bullish momentum. There are signs of a pullback with the latest candle forming a small body, which could indicate a temporary exhaustion in buying pressure.
1H Timeframe: On the hourly chart, the price action shows a sharp decline followed by a recovery, indicating a volatility spike. This could be a reaction to a liquidity grab below prior lows, which is a common institutional maneuver to eliminate stop-loss orders before a directional move.
15M Timeframe: The 15-minute chart displays a recovery phase with the price moving upward steadily, suggesting that the earlier drop was likely a liquidity sweep.
5M Timeframe: This timeframe shows continued upward movement with consistent green candles, supporting the recovery narrative seen in the 15M chart.
1M Timeframe: The 1-minute chart shows a very granular view of the bullish momentum. The consistent upward ticks suggest strong buying interest at these levels, possibly from retail following the institutional cue.
INSTITUTIONAL THESIS:
Institutions appear to be in a phase of accumulation after a liquidity sweep, as evidenced by the sharp drop and subsequent recovery. The goal seems to be to push the price higher after successfully capturing liquidity below recent lows.
LEARNING POINT:
"1H Liquidity Sweep followed by a 15M and 5M bullish recovery indicating institutional buying pressure."
SIGNAL: BUY
SYMBOL: BTC/USDT ENTRY PRICE: $107,800 STOP LOSS: $107,400 TARGET PRICE: $108,600 CONDITION: Buy limit order post-1M confirmation of continued bullish momentum. RATIONALE: The setup aligns with a liquidity sweep followed by a bullish recovery across multiple timeframes, indicating strong buying interest. The entry is set above the current 1M high to ensure momentum continuation, with a stop placed just below the recent 1H low to minimize exposure to another potential liquidity sweep. STRATEGIES USED: Liquidity Sweep Recovery, Multi-Timeframe Bullish Alignment URGENCY: HIGH TIMEFRAME: Short-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% RISK/REWARD RATIO: Calculated as follows:
Risk: $107,800 (Entry) - $107,400 (Stop) = $400
Reward: $108,600 (Target) - $107,800 (Entry) = $800
Ratio: 800 / 400 = 2:1
Skeptic| Cycle Mastery Part 1: HWC, MWC, LWC for Smarter TradingUnderstanding Higher Wave Cycle ( HWC ), Minor Wave Cycle ( MWC ), and Low Wave Cycle ( LWC ) is the key to making informed trading decisions, simplifying when to go long , short , or stay out . This Part 1 masterclass introduces these cycles, their relative nature, and how to align them with your strategy for precise entries and effective risk management . Let’s break it down. 📊
The Three Cycles: HWC, MWC, LWC
We trade across three market cycles:
HWC (Higher Wave Cycle) : The big-picture trend, like Bitcoin’s yearly uptrend.
MWC (Minor Wave Cycle): A medium-term trend, often an uptrend or corrective phase within the HWC.
LWC (Low Wave Cycle): The short-term daily trend, which can be range-bound, uptrend, or downtrend.
Knowing these cycles helps you decide when to e nter long, short, or avoid trading altogether, ensuring you align with the market’s rhythm.
Defining Your Cycles: It’s Relative
The main question before diving in: What timeframes are HWC, MWC, and LWC? The answer is relative—it depends on your strategy. Think of it like a temperature scale: 0°C isn’t “no heat” but a reference point (water’s freezing point). Similarly, your cycles are defined by the largest timeframe you analyze:
HWC: Your highest timeframe (e.g., Weekly for long-term traders).
MWC: The next level down (e.g., Daily).
LWC: Your shortest timeframe (e.g., 4-Hour or 1-Hour).
Ask yourself: What’s the largest timeframe I check? Set your HWC there, then scale down for MWC and LWC based on your trading style. This relativity ensures your cycles fit your unique approach.
While shorter cycles (LWC, MWC) form the HWC, the HWC’s power dominates, influencing smaller cycles. Let’s explore how to trade based on these relationships.
Trading Scenarios: When to Act
Scenario 1: HWC Uptrend, MWC Range
When the HWC is in an uptrend and the MWC is range-bound:
Action: Enter a long position on the first MWC wave when the LWC breaks the ceiling of the MWC range (e.g., a box breakout).
Why? The HWC’s bullish power supports the move, likely triggering an MWC uptrend. This makes the first wave a strong, low-risk entry.
Example: If the LWC (e.g., 4-hour) breaks the MWC range ceiling with a strong candle, you can confidently go long, backed by the HWC uptrend.
Scenario 2: HWC Downtrend, MWC Range
When the HWC is in a downtrend and the MWC is range-bound:
Action: Skip the first MWC wave. If the LWC breaks the MWC range ceiling, avoid going long—the bearish HWC could reject the move, resuming its downtrend.
Wait for the Second Wave: Let the MWC return to a range after the first wave. If the LWC breaks the range ceiling again, go long with confidence—the HWC’s influence is less likely to disrupt this second wave.
Risk Management Tips (if you trade the first wave against the HWC):
Reduce Risk: Lower your position size to minimize exposure.
Take Profits Early: Close the position or secure most profits (e.g., scale out) once you hit your R/R target, as volatility is high.
Wider Stop-Loss: Set a larger stop-loss to account for potential HWC-driven reversals, as stop-loss hunts are common in this scenario.
Adjusting Stop-Loss Size Based on Cycles
Aligned Cycles (HWC, MWC, LWC in Same Direction): When all three cycles align (e.g., all uptrend), set a tighter stop-loss relative to market conditions. Gradually scale out profits instead of closing the position, as the trend’s strength supports higher R/R (e.g., 5 or 10).
HWC Against MWC/LWC: If the HWC opposes the other cycles (e.g., HWC downtrend, MWC/LWC uptrend), use a wider stop-loss. The HWC’s power could reverse the LWC, lowering your win rate if stops are too tight. Expect volatility and plan accordingly.
Final Vibe Check
This Cycle Mastery Part 1 equips you to time MWC waves with precision, aligning HWC, MWC, and LWC for smarter entries. By mastering when to trade the first or second wave, you’ll avoid traps and maximize your edge. Part 2 will dive deeper with examples—stay tuned! At Skeptic Lab, we trade with no FOMO, no hype, just reason. Protect your capital—stick to 1%–2% risk per trade. Want Part 2 or another topic? Drop it in the comments! If this guide sharpened your game, hit that boost—it fuels my mission! 😊 Stay disciplined, fam! ✌️
💬 Let’s Talk!
How will you time your MWC waves? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s crush it together!