BTC, ETH & Market Structure Outlook – Is the Pullback Over or Ju
💎🚀 BTC, ETH & Market Structure Outlook – Is the Pullback Over or Just Beginning? 🔥♦️
🧠 Dow Theory | Multi-Cycle Technical Breakdown | Index Watch
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♦️ BTC/USDT Analysis
🔻 The key support at 115,725 was broken – but has the macro trend turned bearish? Not yet.
📉 From the HWC (1D) perspective, BTC has dropped only ~4.5%, which still looks like a pullback.
🟥 However, if price stabilizes below 109,000, we will begin shifting to a bearish macro bias.
🧠 Weakness in trend is present but not confirmed.
🔄 MWC (4H) – Sideways, Then Breakdown
📊 After a strong rally, BTC ranged for about 17 days, then broke below the range support.
🔽 The 4H trend leans bearish, but it's not a strong or confirmed downtrend.
⏱️ LWC (1H) – Clearly Bearish
📉 Lower highs and lower lows are forming. The trend is decisively downward in 1H.
🚀 Bullish Scenario:
If BTC bounces from 112,000, we need:
• A strong new high
• A healthy pullback
• A breakout of the new high → then long entries are valid
❗ Bearish Scenario:
If 109,000 breaks with volume → strong bearish continuation likely.
♦️ ETH/USDT Analysis
🔸 The 3538 level is key.
✅ If ETH shows clear reaction, followed by a breakout, a long position becomes valid.
⚠️ But only after a confirmed trend shift on the 4H timeframe.
♦️ Top Altcoins
⭕ Most alts are in an uncertain phase.
🕒 It's best to wait until new highs/lows and a valid structure are formed.
♦️ BTC Dominance (BTC.D)
💥 BTC.D broke through the critical 62.22 level.
🟡 Now we wait: Will it hold above or fake out and reverse?
🔻 If BTC is dropping while BTC.D is rising →
👉 Result: BTC drops moderately, but alts drop much harder.
♦️ USDT Dominance (USDT.D)
📉 This chart reflects market fear & greed.
Currently showing reduced greed (risk-off behavior).
🔸 Next resistance levels: 4.63 and 4.72
❗ If these break → bearish bias becomes dominant.
⭕ However, a fakeout here could create a fast early entry opportunity.
♦️ TOTAL Market Cap
📍 Market is sitting on a major support level – but BTC remains the key driver.
❗ No confirmed long setups until BTC structure shifts bullish.
♦️ Strategic Outlook
1️⃣ Not a good time to open fresh positions – wait for clear 4H structure formation
2️⃣ Bias remains bullish overall, but waiting for confirmation
3️⃣ Until BTC trend clearly reverses, we are not focused on BTC.D reversals – they remain secondary
4️⃣ On the Bitcoin chart, you can see another red zone — breaking the first one will invalidate the bullish outlook, and breaking the second one will trigger a search for short positions.
5️⃣ To return to a strong uptrend, breaking the green zone around 120,000.00 is essential.
6️⃣ I’ve drawn two green upward paths on the chart. I’ll be looking for such a path for an early long entry.
💎 Stay cautious, manage risk, and follow structure!
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