USDTBTC trade ideas
26/05/25 Weekly OutlookLast weeks high: $111,965.73
Last weeks low: $101,994.78
Midpoint: $106,980.26
New BTC ATHs! Well done to those who capitalized on the move and continue to believe in this Bitcoin.
For the last two weekly outlooks I have talked about the pattern of consolidation for 1 week --> expansion the next. Last week We got our expansion week right on queue and this time around BTC made a new ATH hitting just shy of $112,000.
Should the pattern continue this week will be a week of consolidation/chop, however this week is different now that we're at ATH levels. My gut says a pullback is coming after such an aggressive move up with almost no pullbacks at all.
Should BTCs price drop below the Midpoint I think there will be a big struggle to continue this rally in the short term. Initially target would be weekly low and main HTF target would be $97,000 IMO. That would be a healthy pullback to continue the rally.
For the bulls you don't want momentum to stop in the short term, flipping $110,450 and weekly high would put BTC back into price discovery, once any asset is in price discovery it's very difficult to tell where the sell pressure will come from and so shorting becomes very risky.
Market Overview
WHAT HAPPENED?
Last week, Bitcoin updated its historical maximum, after which it entered a correction phase. The price tested the key demand zone of $109,200-$106,500 (volume zone), where it encountered buyer activity: sales were absorbed, and a rebound followed.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT?
At the moment, we’re still in an uptrend. This is evidenced by the unbroken trendline, the reaction during the test of the mentioned zone, as well as the absorption of sales along the delta within it.
In the opposite scenario and moving below the slope and the buyer's zone, we expect a decline to $103,000 and a change in the current trend, at least to the sideways.
Buy Zones:
$109,200–$106,500 (volume area)
$103,200–$102,000 (market sell absorption)
~$100,000 (aggressive buy volumes)
$98,000–$97,200 (local support)
$93,000 (support level)
$91,500–$90,000 (strong buying imbalance)
$88,100–$87,000 (market sell absorption)
$85,500–$84,000 (accumulated volume)
$82,700–$81,400 (volume zone)
$74,800 (support level)
$69,000–$60,600 (accumulated volume)
IMPORTANT DATES
Macroeconomic developments this week:
• Tuesday, May 27, 14:00 (UTC) — publication of the US consumer confidence index for May from the Conference Board (CB);
• Wednesday, May 28, 02:00 (UTC) — announcement of the New Zealand interest rate decision;
• Wednesday, May 28, 18:00 (UTC) — publication of the minutes of the US FOMC meeting;
• Thursday, May 29, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of GDP for the first quarter and the results of initial applications for US unemployment benefits;
• Friday, May 30, 12:00 (UTC) — publication of the US consumer Price Index for May;
• Friday, May 30, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the basic index of US personal consumption expenditures for April, as well as in comparison with April 2024;
• Saturday, May 31, 1:30 (UTC) — the publication of the index of business activity in the Chinese manufacturing sector for May.
*This post is not a financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience.
#analytics
Can BTC break above $109,000 in this ascending channel?Bitcoin has been trading within a clearly defined upward channel since the beginning of April. This rising channel is characterized by three touchpoints on both the upper and lower trendlines, indicating a consistent pattern of price movement within these boundaries.
Approaching key resistance
Currently, BTC is approaching a critical resistance level near the $109,000 mark, which coincides with its previous all-time high. This level represents a significant psychological and technical barrier, as it was the peak of the last major bull cycle. The price is now testing this resistance while still remaining within the rising channel. The confluence of the upper channel resistance and the historical all-time high makes this a decisive moment for Bitcoin's price action.
Bullish breakout
A rejection from this resistance zone could lead to a temporary pullback, potentially towards the lower boundary of the rising channel. This would not necessarily signal the end of the bullish trend, but rather a healthy consolidation within the established structure. However, a confirmed breakout above the $109,000 level, especially if supported by strong volume and bullish momentum, would likely signal a significant shift in market dynamics. Such a breakout would validate the strength of the current uptrend and could open the door for new all-time highs. In that scenario, the $109,000 level would likely flip from resistance to support, becoming a crucial area for bulls to defend on any future retests.
Bearish breakout
On the downside, traders should also be aware of the implications of a breakdown below the rising channel. The lower boundary of the channel, currently located around $104,000, is an important technical level to watch. A decisive break below this level could indicate a loss of short-term bullish momentum and may trigger a deeper retracement. In such a case, BTC would likely target the imbalance zone between $97,500 and $100,500, a region where price moved rapidly in the past without establishing strong support or resistance. This zone could serve as a critical area for buyers to step in and attempt to reestablish bullish control, potentially setting the stage for another rally toward the $109,000 resistance and a renewed attempt at a breakout.
BTC LongVolume Spread Analysis indicates that selling pressure has diminished, showing signs of a lack of interest in further selling. Meanwhile, the ICT Drive Pattern reveals multiple failed attempts by demand to push prices higher. However, on the fourth attempt, a bullish confirmation appears through MSS/CHoCH, suggesting potential upward momentum.
BITCOINBITCOIN could respect the current all time high @111k and sell from that level. But if price plays on the current ascending supply roof structure ,then it will break 111k and use it as support where the next sell zone will likely be above 115k-118k based on the structure.
The bulls need to stay in control!Hopefully, BTC will break this; otherwise, we're looking at a significant bearish divergence on the weekly timeframe.
BTC – Symmetrical Triangle + Channel Breakout with Zoomed-In ⏱️ On the 2H timeframe, BTC is consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle:
• Support zone near 106,900
• Resistance around 109,700
🕓 On the 4H chart, BTC is breaking above its previous ascending channel resistance.
✅ Holding above 109,100 could lead to strong bullish momentum ahead 🚀
🔍 Zooming into the structure:
BTC tapped the lower support and bounced hard — a quick reaction that signals strength ⚡
🎯 Next target in sight: 111,600 if momentum holds steady.
👀 Keep a close eye on how price reacts around the breakout zone — the next few candles may decide short-term direction.
BTCUSDT to bounce from 4h supportHere is an idea for trade on BTCUSDT. The price is coming close to the 4h support zone 4HS1.
It is likely that it will find support there and bounce from there towards 4h resistance 4HR1 and possibly towards 4HR2.
We will take some profit at 4HR1 level if the price reaches there and look to refill the position on any pullback.
We will also reevaluate if the price is really heading towards 4HR2 or likely to go around 96k-97k before fueling up for upward move.
Bitcoin Update– Complex X Wave Completed, New Pattern in Pla📊 Chart Update | Advanced Structure Analysis
We’ve just completed a multi-layered X wave as part of a larger correction:
🔷 Zigzag (off-screen, higher timeframe)
🔷 X Wave structure included:
🔹 Contracting Triangle
🔹 Small timeframe x wave (thrust)
🔹 Classic Flat correction
This entire sequence forms a validated complex X wave, as per Glenn Neely’s NeoWave guidelines.
Now, a new pattern has begun on the higher timeframe:
🔷 Wave A = :3
🔷 Wave B = :3
Based on this, we are likely entering one of the following:
🔷 Flat Pattern
📈 If Wave C develops as :5, expect a strong, impulsive upward move.
🚀 This would mark the final leg of a classic A–B–C Flat.
🔷 Contracting or Running Triangle
🔁 If Wave C unfolds as :3, the market may form a triangle (C–D–E still pending).
⏳ Expect sideways movement with shrinking volatility.
🔷 Diametric Pattern
📐 If price action develops rhythmically past C, we may be inside a 7-legged Diametric.
🔄 Structure would progress to Waves D–G in a balanced fashion.
---
What’s Next?
👁 Watch Wave C closely:
🔹 If it’s emotional and impulsive → 📈 Likely a Flat
🔹 If it’s slow and overlapping → 🔁 Triangle or Diametric
Stay alert — the next move will confirm the dominant pattern!
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Btc moveup from 106.8I think btc found a local bottom here at 106.8k and will move up to 108.5k or higher 109k and then maybe fall down to take those SSLs. We ‘ll see.
Strength of Movement: A Hidden Gem for Trend Traders📌 What Is It?
Have you ever struggled to determine whether a price move has real strength behind it? The Strength of Movement indicator might be the tool you're missing.
The Strength of Movement (SoM) indicator by RedK is designed to measure the momentum and conviction behind price movements. Unlike traditional momentum indicators like RSI or MACD, SoM focuses on the strength of directional moves, helping traders identify when a trend is gaining or losing steam.
This post will explore the features, configuration, and practical applications of this indicator.
🔍 What is the RedK Strength of Movement Indicator?
The RedK Strength of Movement indicator is designed to measure the strength of price movement and show when a quality trend has been established. It uses a simple mathematical concept to identify opportunities for long call or put positions.
📈 What kind of indicator is it?
The Strength of Movement indicator falls into the category of momentum indicators. Momentum indicators are used to measure the speed and strength of price movements.
⏳ Is it Leading or Lagging?
The RedK Strength of Movement indicator is primarily a leading indicator. It can act as a leading indicator for an imminent change in trend direction by exposing the relative movement or change of price.
⭐ Key Features
Strength Circles: These circles indicate that the top or bottom has not been reached yet, providing valuable insights into market momentum.
Measures the strength of price movement.
Identifies quality trends.
Helps filter out low-momentum conditions.
💡 Benefits Compared to other indicators
Provides clearer signals for trend identification.
Acts as a leading indicator for trend changes.
Helps avoid low-momentum conditions.
⚙️ Indicator Configuration
Timeframe Source: The indicator works on any timeframe, but higher timeframes (e.g., daily, weekly) are recommended for identifying high-quality trend setups.
Range Source: The calculation is based on the relative price change (as a ratio) from the previous bar, rather than absolute values. This makes it more intuitive and accurate for traders.
SoM Calculation Type: The core logic uses a modified `stoch()` function to normalize the strength of movement between 0% and 100%.
Smoothing Adjustments: In version 2, the calculation was refined to avoid visual confusion—especially on Renko or non-time-based charts—by adjusting how the lowest and highest values are interpreted.
📈 Enhancing Signal Accuracy with a Trend Indicator
To enhance the accuracy of signals generated by the RedK Strength of Movement indicator, it can be used in conjunction with trend indicators such as:
Moving Averages: Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) are widely used to identify trend direction.
MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence helps reveal both direction and underlying momentum.
Combining these tools helps confirm signals and reduce false positives.
🔄 Alternatives
While the RedK Strength of Movement indicator is powerful, there are other alternatives that also focus on momentum and trend identification:
RSI: Relative Strength Index measures the speed and change of price movements.
Stochastic Oscillator: Measures the level of the closing price relative to the range of prices over a certain period.
💡 Practical Tips
Combine with Trend Indicators: Use the RedK Strength of Movement indicator alongside trend indicators to confirm signals.
Monitor Strength Circles: Pay close attention to the strength circles for insights into market momentum.
Backtest Thoroughly: Before using the indicator in live trading, backtest it on historical data to understand its performance and adjust settings accordingly.
📈 Which Securities Does This Apply For?
The RedK Strength of Movement indicator can be applied to a wide range of securities, including:
Stocks: Useful for identifying quality trends in individual stocks.
ETFs: Effective for analyzing exchange-traded funds.
Forex: Valuable for currency pairs, helping traders identify market cycles and potential reversals.
Commodities: Applicable to commodities like gold, oil, and agricultural products.
Cryptocurrencies: Can be used to analyze digital assets, providing insights into market momentum.
📌 Conclusion
The RedK Strength of Movement indicator is a powerful tool for traders looking to enhance their technical analysis. By measuring the strength of price movement and identifying quality trends, it provides clearer and more accurate signals, helping traders navigate complex market cycles.
Bitcoin is still in an uptrend that is your friend.... but...BTC has taken a pullback after the orange swan event. Now that volatility has pushed down, I want to see the bullish response. If the bulls can't maintain the uptrend, the market structure defines a lower high. A CHOCH usually begins with a lower high followed by a lower low.
Full analysis: Link in the BIO
BTC Wave Update – Final Triangle Before Thrust?Analyzing BTC/USDT on the 15-minute chart using strict NeoWave guidelines:
After completing a complex correction:
A classic (A)(B)(C) Zigzag
Followed by two X waves, connecting multiple corrective phases
The structure is now forming a Contracting Triangle (a–b–c–d–e)
This triangle appears to be the final pattern of a Triple Three combination.
What’s next?
According to Glenn Neely’s rules:
After Wave e, expect a sharp upward thrust
The thrust should retrace at least 61.8% of the triangle’s entire price range
It must also complete faster than the triangle itself
All eyes on the triangle breakout zone.
If price respects the lower channel and breaks upward impulsively — we may be looking at the start of a new motive leg.
Bias: Bullish after Wave e completes
Invalidation: Break and sustain below triangle support zone
Stay patient — real thrusts begin when the pattern completes.
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BTC NeoWave Update – Final Triangle Before Thrust?Analyzing BTC/USDT on the 15-minute chart using strict NeoWave guidelines:
After completing a complex correction:
A classic (A)(B)(C) Zigzag
Followed by two X waves, connecting multiple corrective phases
The structure is now forming a Contracting Triangle (a–b–c–d–e)
This triangle appears to be the final pattern of a Triple Three combination.
What’s next?
According to Glenn Neely’s rules:
After Wave e, expect a sharp upward thrust
The thrust should retrace at least 61.8% of the triangle’s entire price range
It must also complete faster than the triangle itself
All eyes on the triangle breakout zone.
If price respects the lower channel and breaks upward impulsively — we may be looking at the start of a new motive leg.
Bias: BINANCE:BTCUSDT Bullish after Wave e completes
Invalidation: Break and sustain below triangle support zone
Stay patient — real thrusts begin when the pattern completes.
BTC & VSAVolume Spread Analysis indicates that sellers are diminishing, hinting at an upcoming market shift.
Bitcoin Weekly SetupShitty market gives shitty options.
Could be a Sweep, a fake Sweep, a similar triple top, an overextended weekly move which needs to cool down a bit.
Funding rates are slowing down/neutral.
Open Interest pretty neutral.
A word from Trump/Powell can save or kill the whole story.
Short-term Bitcoin AnalysisBitcoin may once again attempt to break into the $113,000 zone. If this level acts as resistance, a correction down to $100,000 is likely.
Is BTC Poised for a Pullback or Continuation? Key Levels on 3D We’ve got a strong resistance level formed by the double top from Dec 14, 2024, and Jan 19, 2025.
✅ Price is above the 200MA, 50MA, and Bollinger Bands.
✅ MLR > SMA confirms the bullish momentum.
I don’t see any immediate reasons to panic. A pullback to the Bollinger Bands or even the 50MA could be in play, but the price action will depend heavily on macro conditions. 🌎
⚠️ If you're highly leveraged, consider risk management. Keep an eye on price action and stay cautious.
📈 Keep close, follow me for more insights, and thank you for reading! Stay safe. 🙏
BTC - Ranges overview Let's have a look at BTC and how it is currently trading.
As noted in our previous BTC trade idea IF we held 100K we should expect higher prices and price discovery - with new all time highs.
We got it around 111K so let's see how we play from here.
You will not that we played perfectly off the opening week FVG gap (blue box) before pushing up towards new all time highs.
IF we hold the current sellside expect us to continue higher towards new all time highs.
IF we fail to hold the current sellside liquidity and get a clean break below last week's opening week FVG gap expect us to trade back towards 98K.
As always WAIT for the MARKET TO SHOW YOU ITS HAND AND TRADE WITH IT.
Stay safe and never risk more than 1-5% of your capital per trade. The following analysis is merely a price action based analysis and does not constitute financial advice in any form.
BTC/USDT Technical Analysis, 2025-05-23 15:30 UTC💹 BTC/USDT – Technical Analysis (5-min Chart | Binance Spot)
Date: May 23, 2025 | Time: 15:30 UTC
📈 Market Structure & Outlook:
Bitcoin is currently exhibiting a neutral-to-bullish intraday structure, with confirmation bias leaning toward accumulation amid short-term consolidation. The price action is positioned just above key intraday support, with a visible tightening range between major liquidity zones. MACD bullish crossover and candlestick strength indicate persistent buying interest, despite RSI flattening.
📊 Key Indicators:
MACD: Positive histogram (+98.62) confirms bullish crossover; momentum remains constructive.
RSI (14): Neutral at 62.0 — no overbought pressure, leaves room for upside.
ATR (14): Elevated at 368.77 — indicative of high-volatility regime; adjust risk accordingly.
OBV: Net-negative (-1,662) but recovering; suggests quiet accumulation underway.
EMA/SMA:
200-period SMA acting as dynamic support at 109,162.
Price above 50/100 EMA, showing intraday bullish posture.
Bollinger Bands:
Lower Band: 107,968.77 (support zone convergence).
Upper Band: 110,355.26 (immediate resistance ceiling).
🔑 Key Levels:
Support:
109,525–109,550 → EMA/Bollinger convergence zone.
109,162 → 200 SMA acting as institutional anchor.
Resistance:
110,000 → Psychological + stacked ask liquidity zone.
110,280–110,355 → Bollinger top + structural rejection zone (last seen at 14:25 UTC).
🔑 Candlestick Confluence:
Bullish Marubozu (14:30 UTC): Full-bodied candle indicating aggressive buying.
Piercing Line (14:25 UTC): Reversal cue reinforcing dip-buy narrative.
🎯 Trade Setup (Institutional Playbook):
Position Type: Intraday Tactical Long
Entry Zone: 109,525–109,600
Stop-Loss: 109,150 (below SMA-200 + volatility buffer)
Take-Profit: 110,280
Risk/Reward: ~1.8x
Execution Note: Watch for bid thinning below 109,550. Size down to accommodate ATR-adjusted slippage (1.5x).
📌 Summary:
Momentum favors bulls above 109,525; technical alignment supports continuation toward 110,280. However, volatility and macro headlines demand surgical execution and proactive risk control. Maintain discipline around liquidity pockets.
