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BTC thesis by Titan_KarmaBitcoin Investment Thesis Market Analysis Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $96,938.18, showing potential for bullish momentum. The recommendation is to OPEN LONG positions, supported by technical and market indicators suggesting upside potential. Key Technical Indicators Stop-loss: Positioned at $95,000.00, providing a safety net against sudden price drops while allowing room for market fluctuations. Take-profit: Targeted at $103,000.00, aligning with recent resistance levels for an optimal risk-reward ratio. Exit Point: Set at $100,000.00, offering a balanced opportunity for securing partial profits before hitting the take-profit level. Confidence Level With a confidence level of 75%, this strategy reflects cautious optimism. While the data supports a bullish move, traders should remain vigilant due to the neutral correlation and market volatility. Correlation with BTC The neutral correlation (0.00) indicates BTC is moving independently, unaffected by broader market dynamics or external asset influences. Position Analysis Open Long Positions: None currently, presenting an opportunity to capitalize on the suggested strategy. Open Short Positions: None, indicating no significant bearish sentiment in the market. Risk Management Strategy Entry should occur near the current price of $96,938.18, with a well-defined stop-loss at $95,000.00 to minimize downside risk. The take-profit at $103,000.00 provides an attractive upside, and the exit point at $100,000.00 allows for partial profit-taking. Maintain flexibility to adjust the stop-loss and take-profit levels based on evolving market conditions. Recommendation OPEN LONG positions near the current price, targeting the upper resistance level at $103,000.00. The neutral correlation and technical setup support this strategy, but traders should monitor the market closely for sudden shifts in sentiment or price action.
Long
by titankarma
Elliott Wave: A Running Flat?This consolidation is a bit confusing from an Elliott Wave perspective. My current working hyposthesis is we are in a giant (somewhat enlongated) running flat, with waves A and C being zig zags, and B being an expanding triangle. This being wave 4/5/5 for the cycle. Overall, on higher time frame though, a running flat seems to appear. Correction is not complete yet however so currently unsure. My previous analysis (one posted before this one) and the guideline of alternation both suggest that we won't have a big drop toward 70-80K or whatever. However this of course is always possible. Markets will do what they will do!--If this does occur, however, it will likely be a 'fake-out' or 'bear trap' to the downside and will be resolved quite quickly.
by Ian_Carsen
Anticipating a Correction to $75,000 Preceding a Rise to $150,00 As a seasoned observer of the cryptocurrency markets, I have developed a perspective on Bitcoin's (BTC/USDT) price action that blends technical analysis with historical observation. While the recent upward momentum has generated considerable optimism, a rigorous assessment of market indicators and past patterns suggests a high probability of a significant short-term correction, potentially bringing the price down to $75,000, before a subsequent ascent towards $150,000. This analysis will explore the evidentiary basis for this scenario, leveraging specific examples and technical indicators. Historical precedents serve as a critical foundation for this bearish short-term outlook. Bitcoin has consistently exhibited a cyclical behavior characterized by substantial price corrections following periods of rapid appreciation. A noteworthy example is the 2017 bull market, during which multiple 30-40% drawdowns were observed before the final surge to the all-time high. These corrections were not random market fluctuations but rather periods of market consolidation, during which excessive leverage was purged, and a more stable foundation for future growth was established. The current market conditions, while distinct in certain aspects, bear a notable resemblance to those preceding previous pullbacks, indicating a potential vulnerability to a similar pattern of price correction. Further supporting the likelihood of a correction is the emergence of bearish divergences across shorter timeframes. On the 1-hour (1H) and 4-hour (4H) charts, the price has moved below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key trend-following indicator, signaling a potential shift towards bearish momentum. Simultaneously, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of price momentum, has dropped below the 50 level on the same timeframes, suggesting that the selling pressure has intensified. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators on these timeframes have exhibited bearish crossovers, with histograms declining into negative territory, confirming a decline in bullish momentum. Such conditions strongly suggest that an imminent retracement of the price is more likely than the continuation of the current uptrend. The longer-term outlook, while still bullish, does not negate the short-term correction. On the daily timeframe, the price remains above the 20-period SMA. However, the RSI has also started to move downwards and the MACD is showing signs of decreased bullish strength, suggesting that the upward momentum is potentially waning. Historically, such early indications of weakening momentum on the daily chart have often been followed by more substantial pullbacks. These pullbacks serve as essential market resets, creating a more sustainable base for subsequent rallies. The specific target of $75,000 is not arbitrary but rather a confluence of technical and psychological factors. This level is below recent levels of support, representing a potential “shakeout zone” where overleveraged or inexperienced market participants may be forced to liquidate their positions. A move to this level before reversal is also a common pattern in Bitcoin price action. The psychological level of $75,000 could also attract buyers looking for an entry point, which is a factor that would encourage a reversal to the upside from this price level. Looking ahead, the path to $150,000 remains clear, with significant macroeconomic factors and technical trends still supporting long term growth. However, the route to this price point is not likely to be linear and smooth; a move down to the $75,000 price level is likely and expected. The pull back, while unsettling, is likely to provide the next major catalyst needed for Bitcoin’s move towards the $150,000 target and beyond.
Short
by Abdihalim1
Is the #BTC pullback over?📊Is the #BTC pullback over? ❓ 🧠From a structural point of view, the ideal target area (83223-89155) of the short structure has not been fully realized, so we need to be alert to the possibility of further decline. However, we are currently in multiple overlapping support areas, and there is the possibility of continued rebound. We need to The resistance area of ​​concern is near 98600, and we will wait patiently for new signals to appear. ☕️ ➡️We need to be cautious enough when trading against the trend. Therefore, the long orders we held near 96,000 were set to break even after locking in the main profit. In the end, the long orders were swept and we made a small profit. Let's see👀 🤜If you like my analysis, please like💖 and share💬 BITGET:BTCUSDT.P
Long
by wolf_king888
BTC Technical Analysis Kept SimpleThis chart shows Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) price movement on a daily timeframe with several technical indicators and key levels highlighted. Here is a breakdown of the analysis: Key Observations: 1. Price Levels: The price recently broke below the 127.20% Fibonacci extension level near $105,595, which now acts as resistance. The 100% Fibonacci level, around $94,916, is being tested and might act as support. There is a green support zone near $85,000–$95,000 that could serve as a demand area for buyers. 2. Indicators: Parabolic SAR (red dot): Indicates a bearish trend as the dot is above the price candles. On-Balance Volume (OBV): Showing a downward trend, signaling decreasing buying pressure or increasing selling volume. Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 45.05, indicating neutral to slightly bearish momentum. The RSI is trending downward, which aligns with the price drop. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): At 0.02, near the neutral line, suggesting weak inflows or a lack of strong accumulation. 3. 200-Day Moving Average (Red Line): The 200-day moving average is rising but is significantly below the current price. This could indicate that the long-term trend remains bullish despite the short-term correction. 4. Volume: Recent candles show higher volume on red candles, suggesting stronger selling pressure during the price drop. Potential Scenarios: 1. Bullish Case: If the price holds above the $94,916 (100% Fib level) or rebounds from the support zone ($85,000–$95,000), it could trigger a bullish recovery toward $105,595 and potentially retest $108,421. A positive divergence in OBV or RSI could strengthen this case. 2. Bearish Case: If the price breaks below the 100% Fib level, the next key support lies at $85,000–$86,000. A failure to hold this zone might lead to a deeper correction toward the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level at $70,041. Summary: The price is in a short-term downtrend while approaching a significant support zone.
by vagada
Bitcoin Next TargetHello. After a long time , i have a super prediction for you... Now BTC hit a new ATH , So this is due to breaking a diagonal channel and pullback to the upper line.(Yellow channel on the chart). In addition , if we take a look at USDT dominance chart we see a breakout of a longterm channel and a trendline.so it will be reach about 3.90% - 4%. In my opinion and according to wave analysis , the shortterm target for BTC is 86000$ and the long term target is 106000$. thanks for reading my opinion. wish you to Have good investments.
Long
by TraderAmin-KZ
BTCUSDT - UniverseMetta - Analysis#BTCUSDT - UniverseMetta - Analysis After reaching its all-time high (ATH) of $108,300, the price has remained in a prolonged bullish trend. Currently, there are signs that the 5th wave of the global trend may have completed its formation. The price exiting the ascending channel suggests the beginning of an ABC corrective structure. Key support levels are at $91,000 and $85,000, where portfolio allocation can potentially be increased. Target levels: $91,000 - $71,000
Short
by Trade-U-Metta
Technical Analysis: Aiming for the 140136.1 TargetWe still believe that the 90419.3 level on BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P serves as a strong support point that could drive the price toward the next target at 140136.1. The current technical analysis supports this scenario based on the following factors: Overall Trend: The uptrend remains intact, with prices holding above the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, reinforcing the potential for continued bullish momentum. Support and Resistance Levels: Key Support: 90419.3 (a pivotal level). First Resistance: 110000 (a psychological level likely to encounter selling pressure). Second Resistance: 140136.1 (the expected target). Technical Indicators: RSI (Relative Strength Index): Shows positive momentum and remains below overbought territory, leaving room for further upside. MACD: Displays bullish signals with a positive crossover above the zero line, indicating continued upward momentum. Volume: Suggests increased buying interest near the current support levels, strengthening the likelihood of a bounce. Chart Patterns: A potential "Bullish Flag" formation is observed on daily timeframes, supporting the case for achieving higher targets once the upper resistance line of the pattern is breached. Possible Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: If the price holds above 90419.3 and gains sufficient momentum, we may see a gradual rise toward 110000 initially, followed by a move toward 140136.1 in the medium term. Bearish Scenario: A break below 90419.3 could trigger a corrective move toward the next support level at 85000, delaying the upward targets. Recommendations: Closely monitor the 90419.3 level as a critical pivot point. Set stop-loss orders below this level to safeguard open trades. Consider adding long positions incrementally if strong support signals emerge on shorter timeframes.
Long
by luta_ksa