BTC Update 04/02/2025Bitcoin (BTC) recently experienced a sharp and aggressive drop below the $78,000 level, filling the CME gap in that region before making a swift recovery. This liquidity grab triggered a strong bounce, pushing the price back above $80,000 in a rapid reversal.
Currently, BTC is trading around the $85,000 level, aligning with the 200-day EMA on both the daily and intraday charts. This key moving average often acts as a dynamic support and resistance zone, influencing price action significantly.
The $86,000 level now serves as a crucial resistance point, and a retest is likely. If BTC fails to break above this level convincingly, a retracement could follow as short-term traders take profits and liquidity gets tested once again.
However, if BTC manages to break and hold above $86,000, the next key resistance zones to watch are in the $88,000–$90,000 range. These levels will likely see increased selling pressure as BTC approaches new all-time highs.
In the short term, we may see a period of consolidation or a minor pullback before another attempt to push higher. A successful breakout above $90,000 could open the door for further price discovery, while failure to hold key support levels could lead to another retracement towards the $82,000–$80,000 range.
USDTBTC trade ideas
Bitcoin tries to sustain its bullish marketAfter a nearly 30% drop from its all-time high, BTC seems to be consolidating within the $80,000 to $85,000 range. However, it is still too early to confirm a new bullish impulse.
According to my analysis, BTC is compressing between two trendlines that have been forming over the past few months. The first one, an ascending trendline, has been in place for eight months (since August 2024), while the second, a descending trendline, has been forming since early January. At first glance, the movement appears predominantly bullish. However, I am personally waiting for a breakout of the descending trendline, followed by a retest and a bullish alignment of my cloud indicator and moving averages.
This outlook applies to medium- and long-term trades, focusing on 4H charts and higher timeframes.
Bitcoin has seen sharp rises and falls recentlyBy analyzing the Bitcoin chart on the weekly timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around $83,000. This week alone, BTC has dropped by 6%, showing signs of bearish momentum. A correction toward the $70,000 zone seems likely in the near future. Key supply zones are located at $93,400 and $99,700, while key demand zones are at $80,800 and $73,700. This analysis will be updated accordingly.
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BTCUSDTBTC Retest Before the Next Uptrend 🚀
Bitcoin is not going to make a new low—it’s simply retesting the previous support zone around $76K–$78K before continuing its upward movement. This is a classic market structure where price revisits key levels before the next bullish leg.
All the noise, fear, and uncertainty in the market are designed to shake out weak hands and keep retail traders away from big profits. Institutions and smart money are accumulating while the majority panic. Don’t let market manipulation fool you—stay focused on the bigger trend!
What do you think? Are you holding strong or waiting on the sidelines? 🚀💎
Bitcoin Expecting Selling Direction Go Through the this analysis Use trade be carefully.
Bit on as Seems as bearish trend Lookin the Bitcoin candles they needs the bearish pattern and weakness of background and Chinese War then market impact very high direction.
A Possible Trade Points
Resistance Zone 85K /87K
Support Zone 82,300 and 80,500
Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis to share with you.
Don't FOMO read this!Remember to not FOMO into CRYPTOCAP:BTC and altcoins on massive green candles!
Tomorrow, the Trump tariffs will officially hit, and the market could dump!
If this happens, don't panic, but instead capitalise on the opportunity to buy the dip!
Remember, profits are made when you BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH!
BITCOIN - Key Levels To Watch If You Expect A Bounce...Due to the lack of sustained downward momentum overnight and the overall weak move, I have relabeled the decline from $88,839 as a sharp correction, potentially marking the end of Wave 2 in a Wave E corrective bounce.
Wave 1 appears to be a Type-2 Weak 5-Wave move that began at $79,962.
To confirm this bounce, we need a break above $84,630, with a protective stop set at the last low, currently $81,635, aligning with the 0.786 retracement level.
Mastering Risk Management in Trading: The Ultimate GuideMastering Risk Management in Trading: The Ultimate Guide
In the world of trading, success isn’t measured only by big wins but by how well you protect your capital from unnecessary losses. Risk management isn’t just a safety net—it’s the backbone of sustainable trading. In this comprehensive guide, we’ll break down the principles and strategies you need to safeguard your account while still maximizing your profit potential.
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1. Risk-Reward Ratio: The Foundation of Every Trade
- What it is:
The risk-reward ratio is the cornerstone of every trade. It tells you how much potential reward you’re targeting compared to the risk you’re willing to take. For instance, if you risk $100 and aim to make $200, your risk-reward ratio is 1:2—a commonly accepted standard in trading.
- How to use it:
- Always predefine your risk-reward ratio before entering a trade.
- For swing traders, aim for a minimum of 1:2 or 1:3 to justify holding overnight.
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2. Position Sizing: The Key to Survival
- Why position sizing matters:
Position sizing ensures you don’t over-leverage your account or lose too much in a single trade. Many traders fail because they bet too big and get wiped out after just a few losing trades.
- How to calculate position size:
- Use this formula:
Position Size = (Account Risk $ ÷ (Entry Price - Stop-Loss Price)).
- For example, if you’re risking $100 per trade and the difference between your entry and stop-loss is $5, your position size should be 20 units (100 ÷ 5).
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3. Stop-Loss Orders: Your Safety Net
- What is a stop-loss?
A stop-loss is your emergency brake. It’s an order you set in advance to sell your position if the price moves against you by a specified amount.
- How to set stop-losses:
- Use technical analysis to place your stop-loss below support levels for long trades or above resistance levels for short trades.
- Avoid placing stop-losses too close to your entry point, as small fluctuations might trigger them unnecessarily.
Here you can see my ratio is on the low side so i can place a tactical TP and SL in relation to liquidity lines.
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4. The Art of Diversification: Spreading Risk
- Why diversification works:
Putting all your capital into a single trade or instrument increases your risk. Diversification spreads that risk across multiple trades or markets, reducing the impact of any single loss.
- How to diversify effectively:
- Trade across multiple sectors or currency pairs.
- Avoid overexposure to correlated assets (e.g., don’t trade EUR/USD and GBP/USD simultaneously).
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5. Emotional Discipline: Winning the Mental Game
- Why it matters:
Even the best trading strategy can fail if emotions like fear or greed take over. Emotional trading leads to impulsive decisions, revenge trading, and overtrading.
- How to maintain discipline:
- Stick to your trading plan, no matter what.
- Use tools like meditation, journaling, or physical exercise to manage stress.
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6. Dynamic Risk Management: Adapting to Changing Markets
- Adjusting your strategy:
Markets are dynamic, and your risk management should adapt. Volatility can change quickly, requiring you to adjust your stop-loss distance or position size.
- Use ATR (Average True Range):
The ATR is a great tool to measure market volatility and decide how much room to give your stop-loss.
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7. Tracking and Reviewing Your Trades
- The power of a trading journal:
Every trade is a learning opportunity. Keep detailed records of your trades, including your reasoning, execution, and results.
- What to include in your journal:
- Entry and exit points.
- Risk-reward ratio.
- Mistakes or deviations from the plan.
- Lessons learned.
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Conclusion: Plan the Trade, Trade the Plan
Risk management isn’t just a skill—it’s a habit. By understanding your risk-reward ratio, managing position sizes, using stop-losses effectively, and staying emotionally disciplined, you can protect your capital and increase your chances of long-term success.
Take a moment to reflect: How do you manage risk in your trading? Are there areas you could improve? Start implementing these strategies today, and watch how they transform your trading results.
Bitcoin (BTC): Smaller Correction Is Over, Sellers Push Again!We are starting this week with sharp moves, where we are seeing the weekend selling pressure continue into the new week.
As we are approaching the end of the month for March, we are expecting to see a big volatility, and as we still have not touched our major support zone, we expect the next month to start with some sharp moves as well to lower zones. The week has started well so far!
We been talking about our major target being near $70-73K for long time, so we wait patiently
Swallow Team
#BITCOIN: Another drop and then Swing Bounce $125,000The current market sentiment is bearish, indicating a potential further decline towards the 65k price point. However, we anticipate a rebound towards the 125k region. As we approach the 65k threshold, we expect a substantial price increase.
To make informed investment decisions, it is crucial to observe a strong bullish trend before considering any bullish entries.
For more insights and market analysis, please like and comment.🚀❤️
Team Setupsfx_
Check if it can rise along the rising trend line (2)
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We need to see if USDT and USDC can continue the gap uptrend.
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(BTC.D 1M chart)
If BTC dominance rises above 62.47 and maintains or continues to rise, altcoins are likely to record a larger decline.
Therefore, you should think about how to respond to the altcoins you are trading.
If the uptrend continues, it is expected to rise to the Fibonacci ratio range of 0 (73.63) ~ 1 (77.07).
In order for the altcoin bull market to begin, it must fall below 55.01 and be maintained or show a downward trend.
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(USDT.D 1M chart)
In order for the coin market to begin an upward trend, the USDT dominance must fall below 4.97 and be maintained or show a downward trend.
If it does not, and it rises, the coin market is likely to show a downward trend.
We need to see if it can meet resistance near the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 and fall.
If not, the coin market will show a large downward trend as it rises to around 7.14.
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USDT is likely to continue to rise.
This is because it is the fund that supports the coin market.
Due to this, USDT dominance is also likely to continue its upward trend.
Therefore, rather than following the overall flow of USDT dominance, it is better to look at where it starts to decline.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
Whether the price can be maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart while maintaining the price above the upward trend line (2) and passing through April 4-6 is the key.
In order to continue the upward trend, it must rise above 89294.25, so if possible, we should also look at whether it can rise above 89294.25.
If it does not and falls along the downward trend line, it is possible that it will touch around 73499.86 during the volatility period around April 25.
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The most recently formed high-point trend line is trend line (3).
And, the recently formed low-point trend line is the (2) trend line.
Since these two trend lines are not moving in one direction, we can see that we are currently in the volatility zone.
If the StochRSI indicator rises this time and forms a peak in the overbought zone and then falls, the high-point trend line will draw an upward trend line like the low-point trend line.
When that happens, it seems likely that the trend will start.
Therefore, the point of interest is whether the two volatility periods in this April, around April 5 and around April 25, will become turning points.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire BTC range.
I rewrote the previous chart to update it by touching the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10).
(Previous BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(Current BTCUSD 12M chart)
Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15).
Fibonacci ratio 0.618 (44234.54) is not expected to fall again.
(BTCUSDT 12M chart)
Looking at the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58.
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I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart.
The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the light green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges.
In other words, it seems likely to act as a volume profile range.
Therefore, in order to break through this section upward, I think the point to watch is whether it can rise with support near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28).
Therefore, the maximum rising section in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) section.
To do that, we need to look at whether it can rise with support near 2.618 (134018.28).
If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but considering the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%.
So, if the decline starts near the Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54).
I will explain more details when the downtrend starts.
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BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart Analysis. The chart shows Bitcoin (BTC) previously trading within an ascending channel (marked by two parallel black lines).
Recently, BTC broke below this channel, signaling a bearish shift in momentum.
BTC is currently attempting to retest the lower boundary of the broken channel.
This is critical—if BTC fails to reclaim the channel, it could confirm a downtrend continuation.
The chart suggests a possible short-term bounce toward resistance around $85,000-$86,000.
However, after this retest, BTC is expected to drop sharply toward $79,000 - $78,400 (green support zone).
$79,059 & $78,424 are identified as key support zones.
If BTC reaches these levels and holds, a rebound is possible.
If broken, BTC could see a deeper decline toward lower levels.
Breakout invalidation: If BTC breaks above $86,000 with strong volume, it could regain bullish momentum and move higher.
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
BTC Reacted to US Tariffs — What’s Next?Hello Traders 🐺
Yesterday was an absolute disaster in the market!
We saw a huge pump straight into $88,500, then a sharp crash back down to the current level around $83,000, which led to a fakeout from our falling wedge pattern — the one with a target around the All-Time High.
But now the question is: what's next?
As you might know, fakeouts are never a good sign for any pattern.
And when we see one, there’s always a possibility of trapping both sides.
For example, in our current situation — when we saw the bullish breakout from the falling wedge, many might have thought:
“Alright, we’re about to explode and reach new highs!”
So they jump into a long position without waiting for a proper close above resistance, thinking the market was already oversold and fear was over — which honestly, wasn’t a bad thought...
BUT...
Suddenly, Mr. President ruins the market again! 💥
And boom — we get a classic bull trap.
Still, in my opinion, BTC.D is printing new highs, and sooner rather than later, it will crash.
We’re not supposed to be stuck in this correction forever, because we’re still in a bull market.
And don’t forget — the falling wedge pattern is still valid, and it’s a bullish pattern.
Also, price is still holding above the purple line, which is our weekly support — so nothing’s broken just yet. ⚠️
So, what now?
I believe the Fed is getting ready to cut rates and slowly start shifting their stance from QT to QE.
Why?
Because with yesterday’s new tariffs, US-imported goods are about to see inflation, and domestic producers could enter recession if the Fed doesn’t adjust its policy.
So yeah... I personally think it's a good time to buy.
Also, I’m planning to publish a dedicated educational idea about this — breaking down these macroeconomic factors and how they impact the market.
Make sure to follow me so you don’t miss it!
And as always, don’t forget our simple rule:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Potential Correction Ahead?hello guys
The Bitcoin/USDT chart shows an ascending channel with recent price action forming a divergence at the top, indicating potential weakening momentum. A bearish breakout from a smaller triangle suggests a short-term correction. The price may test the ascending trendline around $85,400, where a key support zone exists. If this level fails, a deeper correction toward the major support area around $76,800 could follow. However, if Bitcoin holds above the trendline, the uptrend could resume.
Traders should watch price action around the $85,400 level for confirmation of further downside or a potential bounce.
BTCUSD Trading StrategyBTCUSD has experienced a significant decline. While the indicators have yet to show signs of stabilization or a trend reversal, the price action on the candlestick chart indicates that there is support in the range of 82,000-80,000. Therefore, I believe it is an opportune moment to position for a long trade within this range, exercising patience as we await a price rebound to achieve the TP1/TP2 targets.
Will Bitcoin Continue Its Dip After Trump's Tariff Announcement?Macro:
- President Trump's recent tariff announcement has triggered sharp volatility in the crypto market, with Bitcoin falling below $84,000 amid fears of a global trade war and economic slowdown.
- The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in "Extreme Fear," signalling cautious investor sentiment.
- Despite the turbulence, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong, with firms like Strategy continuing to increase their holdings, showing long-term confidence in the asset.
Technical:
- BTCUSD is captured within a descending channel. The price rejected EMA21 after retesting it, indicating bearish momentum.
- If BTCUSD closes below the support at around 82000-82300, the price may retest the following support at 73000.
- On the contrary, closing above the resistance at 88500 may lead the price to approach the next resistance at 92000.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Btcusdt/M15Bitcoin's structure is currently bearish, and after a retracement to approximately 87,000 units, it might experience an upward move if it can break through the upcoming zone. However, it is expected to continue its downward trend to touch its lower range once again.
💫 For those looking to purchase for long-term holding, it may be better to wait for lower price levels.
💫 For those interested in swing trading, you can consider entering step-by-step positions if the price returns to the previous lower zone before touching the upcoming range. Hold the position until the first target is reached or potentially until the main range mentioned, followed by updating the analysis.
💫 If the price breaks through the upcoming range, I will update the analysis for re-entry opportunities.
💥 I’d be happy to receive your reactions and support
