Daily BTC, ETH & Market Index Analysis💎🔥 Daily BTC, ETH & Market Index Analysis & What Comes Next? 🔥💎
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⭕️ 24-Hour Market Crash – Summary for Crypto Traders
Let’s break down what happened 👇
1️⃣ A massive wave of liquidations in futures and derivatives triggered heavy selling pressure.
2️⃣ BTC Dominance dropped, but capital also exited altcoins and flowed into BTC – a clear fear response and move toward safer assets.
3️⃣ Institutional players reduced exposure to altcoins to limit risk, causing deeper price drops.
4️⃣ On Ethereum, over $2.3B ETH is queued for unstaking, raising the chance of near-term sell pressure.
5️⃣ Ongoing pressure from investor sentiment shifts and global uncertainty is pushing money out of high-risk assets like crypto.
6️⃣ ⚠️ But this is a technical correction, not a fundamental collapse. For long-term thinkers, this could be a buy-the-dip opportunity.
🔥❗️Heavy Crypto Sentiment Week Ahead
As mentioned yesterday, we’re at a critical point across key crypto indexes:
♦️ BTC, ETH, major altcoins, and indexes like BTC.D, USDT.D, TOTAL, TOTAL2, TOTAL3.
🚨 Tomorrow brings a major crypto-impacting event — the Fed interest rate decision.
Most forecasts suggest no change. However, with rising stock indexes, there’s no clear pressure to cut inflation.
Any unexpected comments or decisions by Powell may drive new waves in the crypto space.
♦️ BTC
🗓 Monthly candle closes in 2 days — be cautious around this point.
🔑 $120,300 is still the main breakout level.
If it breaks with BTC Dominance rising, altcoins may stall (unless paired bullishly with BTC).
If it breaks while BTC.D drops, expect strong altcoin momentum.
⚔️ Two scenarios for entries:
1️⃣ Entry at $119,500 – higher risk of getting stopped out but tighter SL.
2️⃣ Entry above $120,300 – more reliable but wider stop due to breakout wick.
🟡 Key Support: $115K–$117.3K – still valid, but repeated testing weakens the zone.
❗️❓️Why does it get weaker?
Because each test drains buy orders. Sellers eventually overwhelm this level as buyers lose firepower.
♦️ BTC Dominance (BTC.D)
Trend isn't clearly bullish yet, but the recent drop has slowed down.
Structure is shifting – two key levels to watch:
1️⃣ 60.83 – rejected yesterday.
2️⃣ 60.42 – if this breaks down, alts may push higher.
♦️ TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap)
Stuck at the $3.91T resistance.
💥 Breakout = strong volume and momentum injection. Be positioned accordingly.
♦️ TOTAL2 (Altcoins excl. BTC)
At the $1.53T key level – breakout or rejection will shape altcoin direction.
♦️ TOTAL3 (Altcoins excl. BTC & ETH)
Still eyeing the $1.08T resistance zone.
♦️ USDT Dominance (USDT.D)
If 4.44% breaks and holds – bullish structure in BTC & alts will be in danger.
Until then, focus on long setups.
📌 Make sure you’re positioned before 4.13% breaks — alts typically begin moving before that confirmation.
♦️ ETH/USDT
If ETH closes below $3,480, expect extended correction or range.
♦️ Trading Outlook
1️⃣ Today may be quiet – market awaits reaction to tomorrow’s index events (Fed, BOJ, Powell).
2️⃣ These updates can create new moves or shift bias toward short setups.
💎 If this helped your crypto planning, hit the 🚀, FOLLOW for more daily setups, and share your thoughts in the comments! 🔥📊
USDTBTC trade ideas
#BTC Update #13 – Aug 01, 2025#BTC Update #13 – Aug 01, 2025
Bitcoin has approached the lower edge of its current channel and received a reaction from there. However, in the current timeframe, the ongoing candle seems willing to pull back again. The MA200 band held the previous candle well, which also represented the bottom of the current channel. There is high liquidity between the $113,200 and $121,000 zones. I believe Bitcoin will continue to move by sweeping through this region. Therefore, I think Bitcoin’s current target is to reach around the $118,000 level with a 3% push move.
If Bitcoin does not make this move and chooses to pull back instead, it may go as far as filling the imbalance at the $110,000 level. The last impulsive move was made around 20 days ago, and since then, the chart has been progressing with a correction of a correction. As long as there’s no close below $107,500, the uptrend will remain intact in the long term. However, if the $107,500 level is broken with a strong candle, we can say that Bitcoin has turned bearish on the 4-hour timeframe. For now, this doesn’t seem very likely. I believe Bitcoin’s next move will target the $118,000 region, continuing to clear out the liquidity accumulating in the upper ranges. However, this channel will need to break at some point.
Bitcoin (BTC): Still Above Local SupportIt's been a choppy week so far but BTC is still above the local support zone, which means we are still bullish and the bullish sentiment has not disappeared (for now, at least).
We wait for and mostly keep an eye on that middle line of BB (Bollinger Bands) for now. The order book is our friend currently as well with all those liquidity hunts taking place!
Swallow Academy
Bitcoin (BTC): Aiming For Re-Test of ATH | $123KBitcoin is back in the bullish zone, where we had a good bounce from $115K, where we had a huge order sitting and since then we have been seeing continuous movement to upper zones.
We are looking for further movement from here towards the ATH zone, where we then expect some huge volatility to occur!
Swallow Academy
BTC 4H – Repeating Accumulation Pattern, But Will It Hold Again?Bitcoin has shown a clear structural tendency to consolidate for ~43 days at key demand zones before breaking to new highs. This 4H chart highlights three nearly identical accumulation phases, each lasting around 260 bars with a clear base, fakeout, and bullish continuation.
We’re now sitting in the fourth demand zone, with price revisiting the same volume pocket and reclaiming key structure. If history repeats, we may be looking at another breakout leg above $124K+.
Key observations:
– Each consolidation zone lasted ~43 days
– Volume decreases into the base → demand absorption
– Reclaim of structure precedes each leg up
– Current consolidation mirrors previous 3 (in time, shape, and volume)
⚠️ A clean break below ~$112K would invalidate the pattern and suggest deeper retracement.
Are we seeing another accumulation leg… or distribution in disguise?
Drop your thoughts below.
#Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #Crypto #TradingView #PriceAction #MarketStructure #BTC4H #CryptoAnalysis #Accumulation #Wyckoff #SwingTrading #PatternRecognition #TechnicalAnalysis
Technical Analysis: All About Its Origin
Technical Analysis is the discipline that studies and graphically records the price and volume changes of a stock or asset, with the aim of exploiting recurring patterns and phenomena with predictive characteristics.
The origins of Technical Analysis date back to 17th-century Japan, in the rice futures markets of Osaka. After a century of internal wars among the daimyo—Japanese feudal lords—General Tokugawa emerged victorious at the Battle of Sekigahara (1600), initiating the unification of Japan. To maintain the loyalty of his subjects, Tokugawa, appointed Shogun, consolidated his power and ensured the allegiance of his followers by concentrating the political-military elite and their families in Edo (modern-day Tokyo).
At that time, the primary source of income for the daimyo was rice collected from the peasants working their lands. Since transporting rice to Edo was impractical, it was stored in the port of Osaka. The proximity of the daimyo in Edo sparked a competition for prestige, manifested through luxuries and other excesses. To sustain this lifestyle, the daimyo sold stored rice and even future harvests. For this “future rice,” warehouses began issuing contracts known as “empty rice.” These contracts were traded in a secondary market, giving rise to one of the world’s first futures markets.
The most prominent trader in this market was Munehisa Homma, who operated in the early 18th century. For Homma, markets were heavily influenced by the psychology of investors, who sometimes perceived a harvest differently from reality. In his book, *The Fountain of Gold*, he expressed ideas that remain highly relevant today, particularly what many Western traders know as contrarian opinion:
“When the price of rice begins to rise, orders come in from all directions at once, and soon the Osaka market joins the frenzy. The price of rice rises faster when people place orders even for stored rice, and it becomes clear that a buying fever is underway. But when you want to be in the position of placing buy orders like everyone else, it’s important to be on the side of those placing sell orders. When people move in unison, rushing westward with the determined intention of participating in the rise, that’s the moment for you to head east, and you will discover great opportunities.”
Steve Nison, an investor who popularized the use of Japanese candlesticks in the West, states in his book *Beyond Candlesticks*:
“In the material I translated, candlestick charts are often called Sakata charts, in reference to the port city of Sakata, where Homma lived. However, based on my research, it is unlikely that Homma used candlestick charts. It is more likely that these charts were developed in the early part of the Meiji period in Japan (late 1800s).”
It is worth noting that, although Homma may not have used candlestick charts, this type of graphical representation was the evolution of centuries of experience using price records for predictive purposes.
The Revolution of Japanese Candlestick Charts
The graphical representation of prices has been a determining factor in the evolution of technical analysis, marking a clear distinction between investment approaches in the East and the West. While traditional bar charts, predominant in the West, were limited to showing opening and closing prices, Japanese candlestick charts offered a more comprehensive view of investor psychology. These charts incorporated not only the opening and closing prices but also the highs and lows of each session, represented intuitively through the body and wicks of the candles.
Perhaps Western investors, constrained by the simplicity of bar charts, developed an approach more focused on studying price formations, while the Japanese could make decisions based on the analysis of small groups of candles. Over time, however, both approaches proved equally practical, and a multi-timeframe understanding became part of the operations of both Western and Japanese investors.
An example of the application of a multi-timeframe approach in the West is found in the father of modern technical analysis, Richard W. Schabacker, who, despite his short life, left a prolific body of work. In his book *Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits* (1932), he classifies markets into major movements (monthly), intermediate movements (weekly), and minor movements (daily). In Japan, Goichi Hosoda, the creator of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, is the best example of an investor who dedicated his life to cataloging and studying price formations beyond the use of candlestick patterns.
Over time, modern Western investment platforms adopted the innovations of Japanese candlestick charts, integrating the ability to display highs, lows, openings, and closings in a single format.
In the early 20th century, scholars of charts in the West were known as chartists, but today, “Chartism” is associated with a classical methodology popularized by journalist and investor Richard W. Schabacker (1899–1935) and later by the book *Technical Analysis of Stock Trends* (1948) by authors Robert D. Edwards and John Magee.
Theory on the Emergence of Technical Analysis
Since the dawn of humanity, people have sought to represent the phenomena around them to understand or communicate information. Whether through cave drawings, symbols, or written records, visual representation has been a fundamental tool for making sense of the world. Undoubtedly, price fluctuations were a phenomenon that invited analysis.
The earliest investors, using graphical representations, aimed to find order in chaos. By meticulously recording price movements, these pioneers likely discovered something surprising: repetitive patterns that seemed to predict future behavior. This discovery must have been thrilling, as it offered the promise of significant profits, often with seemingly low risk.
Without needing to understand market psychology, as later technical analysts would, these early investors found a practical advantage in these patterns. When enough of them identified and acted on the same pattern, it tended to fulfill itself more frequently, reinforcing its validity. Thus, what began as an intuitive observation evolved into a structured practice, laying the foundation for what we now know as Technical Analysis: a discipline that thousands of investors use to interpret market behavior and make informed decisions.
Fun Fact
The first work to describe the phenomenon of stock market investing is titled *Confusion of Confusions* (1688) by José de la Vega, set in Amsterdam, the financial hub of Europe at the time. More than a detailed study of the investment methods of the era, this novel seeks to entertain and inform readers about the risks of speculation.
Its author, moreover, employs a narrative style that surpasses even the florid prose of his contemporaries:
“They strive to perpetuate the unrest of those who frequent their dealings, and just as they imprison them in their towers, they cast the locks into the sea so that the hope of ever removing the bolts may never flatter them.”
Conclusions
Some might consider the history of technical analysis a curious but irrelevant tale for modern practice. However, history shows us that markets are more than just numbers—they are a reflection of human psychology. Far from being a mere catalog of tricks to memorize, technical analysis invites us to understand psychological dynamics to make informed decisions.
Recognizing that markets are shaped by historical patterns grants us a strategic advantage. By studying how past investors interpreted prices and emotions—from rice traders in 17th-century Japan to modern analysts—we can anticipate market movements with greater precision. This perspective not only enriches our trading but also positions us as more aware and prepared investors in an environment where collective psychology remains the dominant force.
References
Nison, S. (1994). *Beyond Candlesticks: New Japanese Charting Techniques Revealed*. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons.
Schabacker, R. W. (1932). *Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits*. New York, NY: B.C. Forbes Publishing.
Edwards, R. D., & Magee, J. (1948). *Technical Analysis of Stock Trends*. Springfield, MA: John Magee.
Rabassa, Y. (n.d.). *How to Master Japanese Candlesticks?* . YouTube.
BTC poised to rise further! Market volume remains the problemBTC poised to rise further! Market volume remains the problem
From our chart we can see that BTC likes to make big corrections before moving higher. Over the weekend, BTC transformed from a bearish picture to a clear bullish triangle with a bullish breakout.
The prevailing trend should push BTC higher as shown in the chart, but again the problem is with the volume.
Suppose BTC has not accumulated enough volume during the development of the pattern. In that case, it is very likely that it will fall even further to develop an even larger pattern like the previous one that we can see at the end of the wave.
However, at the moment, BTC has a bullish pattern and the scenario could develop in the way shown in the chart. We cannot assume further transformations at the moment.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
BTCUSD : Key levelsI added meaningful levels to my past forecast (I can't add a link to my last forecast by the way, because as it turns out I have to actively participate in other people's discussions, which I am unlikely to do. And if I do, then to be able to add links to my predictions. So you have to check my prev forecast in the my profile overview).
So far, all levels are inactive except for the ~116,600 level. It's still in play.
$BTC /USDT – Breakdown from Channel, Bears Gaining ControlBitcoin has broken down from its descending channel on the 4H chart after repeated rejection from the upper trendline. Price is now hovering near key support at $111,785.
Key Technicals:
Rejection from the descending trendline resistance
Breakdown of the mini-channel structure
Current price: $113,637
Support levels:
$111,785 (Immediate)
$106,057
$101,409
$98,398
Bearish continuation is likely if $111,785 breaks with volume
If the $111.7k zone fails to hold, BTC could see further downside toward $106k and even $98k in the coming sessions.
Invalidation: Bullish only on reclaim of $117K+ with strength.
DYOR | Not Financial Advice
Bitcoin will reach 128,000 points!Bitcoin is currently trading in a very specific zone that resembles a classic bull flag continuation pattern, similar to the one we saw during last year’s rally.
Back then, a slow-forming bull flag broke to the upside, pushed to new all-time highs, and then retested the top of the same flag before continuing higher.
Now, we are witnessing a similar setup, but this time the formation has developed much faster.
The key difference:
While last year’s bull flag took a longer time to mature, the current one is more compressed, indicating a potentially sharper move if confirmed.
The $108K daily level is critical.
As long as Bitcoin remains above this level, the structure favors a new rally.
This could be the start of another impulsive leg, targeting the $128K Area.
BITCOIN FALL TO 78K ! OR GOING TO 170K ?📊 Bitcoin Possible Scenarios (BTC/USDT Analysis)
🟢 Green Scenario (Immediate Bullish Breakout):
If the price breaks above the $120,000 resistance without any significant pullback, this would signal strong bullish continuation. It suggests buyer dominance and could lead to a fast move toward higher levels.
🟡 Yellow Scenario (Bullish Correction):
If BTC fails to break $120,000, we may see a drop toward $112,000. If this level breaks, price could head down to $100,000 to collect liquidity and attract buyers. From there, a strong rebound is likely, restoring bullish momentum (with weekly trendline support)
🔴 Red Scenario (Bearish Reversal):
If price breaks clearly below $100,000, especially with a violation of the weekly trendline, this could trigger a deeper correction toward the $78,000 – $74,000 zone. This scenario would mark a potential shift in long-term market structure.
Main Target : 170,000
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) - Possible Completion of a Complex CorrectionTimeframe: 4H + 1H
Methodology: NeoWave (Glen Neely) + Smart Money Concepts (ICT/SMC)
Posted by: @CryptoPilot
⸻
🧠 NeoWave Analysis: Complex Correction Ending?
From a NeoWave perspective, BTC seems to be in the final stages of a Complex Correction that started in March 2025 from ~72k. The upward move appears to form a Contracting Diametric structure (7 legs: A–B–C–D–E–F–G), with the current leg G potentially unfolding now.
• ✅ Wave A: Sharp recovery from March lows
• ✅ Waves B–F: Alternating corrective legs with varied time and complexity
• 🔄 Wave G: Could be starting now, expected to break structure to the downside
This suggests that the entire move from March till now may represent a large Wave B, setting the stage for a deeper Wave C down.
⸻
🔍 Price Action + Smart Money Confluence
The following observations strengthen the NeoWave scenario:
• 🟨 Liquidity Pools above 120k were swept recently, creating a potential Buy-side Liquidity Grab
• 🟥 Imbalance/FVGs below 114.5k remain unfilled
• 🔻 Market Structure Shift (MSS) evident on 1H chart — lower highs forming
• 🧠 Price rejected from a key Supply Zone, aligning with end of Wave F
• 🟩 If price re-tests the internal bearish OB (near 119.5k–120k), it may provide an ideal short trigger
⸻
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Level
Description
120.2k
Liquidity sweep zone / MSS confirmed
118k
Current structure base (pivot)
114.5k
FVG + potential Wave G target
111–112k
Strong demand zone (accumulation support)
🧭 Scenario Outlook:
Primary:
→ Price is in Wave G of a Diametric (NeoWave)
→ Likely to unfold as a 3-leg Zigzag down or a Complex combination
→ Objective: break below Wave E low and target the unmitigated imbalances
Alternative:
→ Extended Flat or Triangle, if 120.5k is broken impulsively
→ Invalidation = clean break and hold above 121k
⸻
⚠️ Risk Note:
This analysis assumes Wave G is beginning. If bulls manage to reclaim 120.5k with momentum and close above, the bearish structure will be invalidated.
⸻
💬 Final Thought:
We are potentially nearing the end of a complex corrective rally. The confluence of NeoWave structural symmetry, Smart Money traps, and market inefficiencies suggests that BTC may be preparing for a retracement. Stay alert for confirmations before executing.
⸻
📌 Follow @CryptoPilot for advanced wave structure updates, market geometry insights, and ICT-style smart money traps.
💬 Share your views or alternate wave counts in the comments!
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on BITCOIN?
After setting a new all-time high, Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase, marked by sideways price action and choppy movements.
There's a notable gap around the $114,000 level, which may act as a magnet for price during this correction.
The ongoing pullback is likely to extend toward the key support zone, which aligns with the previous breakout level and the bottom of the ascending channel.
Once this support holds, we could see a bullish reversal, targeting the upper boundary of the channel once again.
As long as Bitcoin remains above the marked support zone, the overall structure stays bullish and this correction may present a buy-the-dip opportunity.
Will Bitcoin fill the gap and bounce back toward new highs? Let us know your thoughts! 🤔👇
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Bitcoin Weekly Recap & Gameplan | 27.07.2025📈 Market Context:
Bitcoin maintained its bullish momentum, driven by continued institutional demand and a supportive U.S. policy backdrop.
Last week’s gameplan played out well — solid profits were captured (see linked chart below).
🧾 Weekly Recap:
• Price made a bullish retracement into the Weekly FVG (purple line) exactly as projected in last week's post.
• From here, I expect continuation toward new all-time highs.
📌 Technical Outlook:
→ First, I expect a short retracement and a 4H swing liquidity grab at 117,828$.
→ Then, a strong continuation move toward ATH targets.
🎯 Setup Trigger:
Watch for:
✅ 4H liquidity sweep
✅ 15M–30M bullish break of structure (BOS)
This is the confirmation zone for potential long setups.
📋 Trade Management:
• Stoploss: Below confirmation swing low
• Targets:
– 120,938$
– 123,400$
💬 Like, follow, and drop a comment if this outlook helped — and stay tuned for more setups each week!
BTC | Short Bias — Targeting $113kPrice rejected perfectly off the 0.5 retracement and is now filling the previous imbalance.
Yesterday's daily close was decisively bearish, confirming downside momentum.
There’s a lack of convincing reversal signals at current levels.
Plan:
Main expectation is continued downside toward the $113k support.
Not interested in longs until price stabilizes at or below that level.
Low Time Frame Possible HnSThis chart illustrates a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern forming on a low time frame, signaling a possible short-term bullish reversal. The pattern is clearly marked with a Left Shoulder, Head, and Right Shoulder, suggesting a setup as shown.
The neckline area is labeled as a possible retest zone, where price may briefly revisit before either confirming the reversal or continuing the downtrend. A clean breakout and hold above this neckline would validate the pattern, with a projected upside target around 116K, as noted on the chart.
Risk management is visualized with a favorable risk-to-reward setup. However, a breakdown below the head would invalidate the pattern and imply further downside to the 110K 109K area.
This setup is ideal for traders watching for a short-term reversal, provided there is volume confirmation and alignment with broader market structure.
BTCUSDT: Elliot Wave AnalysisAs you can see in the chart, the fourth wave has ended and there is a possibility of an increase in the next stage to the level between 128,000 and 131,000, followed by a correction for a larger fourth wave and finally the last leg of the increase to the fifth wave, which has the possibility of reaching 139,000 to 140,000.