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U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira

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USDTRY trade ideas

USDTRY- LARGE DECLINE EXPECTEDI am unchangeable to my view point. It is even misunderstood. The view is medium-term here, whilst the short-term charts are similarly suggesting an imminent decline coming. it is obvious that interest rate policy has weakened sharply, and this against the standard view of managing inflation. The export base is good for Turkey, and the extreme weakening of the TRY will grow the exports even faster, and then you will get an offset of natural selling of USDTRY medium-term. China has done this, but differently. The increase of minimum wages by 50% in Turkey does not help inflation. Ok fundamentals we know, but what now... SELL USDTRY for first corrective move to 12.35 (reduce position here for re-sell). Ultimately we will see 10.05>10.50. Only then I feel we will see much higher.
Short
by peterbokma
11
USDTRY - D-DAY ?Today will be quite a day, either sharply up or down. My personal view, remains medium-term SELL. The FIB time cycles on weekly chart suggests we are nearing the end of the cycle, and further we are trying to move beyond GANN resistance, but am still worried about the stellar steepness of the increase. I have no issue seeing long-term 15-16-17 handles, but first we need to move back towards 10.25-11.25 to relieve the pressures. Today is D-Day as we may see either rate cuts or not. The question is also how much. this should be far build-in the market and therefore the chance of a sharp decline is far greater than not. It is a personal view point and choice. needless to say, good luck for today.
Short
by peterbokma
46
USDTRY - SELL strategyIt seems comments coming my way to stop writing about USDTRY. Personally I can't see why I should. I have been working too long in this market and this way i can help others. In the end of the day, it's each ones decision to agree or not. For me not an issue. It is clear Turkey's monetary policy is quite different approach, and that has spooked the market. Tomorrow expectation of more rate cuts, keeps it up high. The question is, is the market LONG USDTRY or SHORT? I guess very LONG and besides, the reason we are here is just because of the possible further rate cuts. Thee are some banks in USA betting on even a much weaker Turkish Lia for 2022 and 2023. We all can read that no doubt. Now back to the drawing board. Short-term and medium and long term, we are in uncharted territory, and I have seen it before during Italian Lira crisis. USDTRY RSI is near 95.0 weekly chart... monthly near 89.0 and daily 83.0 again. We will correct back to 11.25 > 10.25. PLEASE DO NOT GO LONG... yes it can spike... but a rocket rising that sharp will fall sharp as well... anyway... let us see tomorrow... best regards all and good luck on this one.
Short
by peterbokma
8
USDTRY- LARGE DECLINE EXPECTED - PART 2Someone mentioned that interest rates in Turkey will decline to 5% by Thursday. I think that seems something out of this world. Anyway, looking at FIB circle, it is clear we have been in stellar mode, or its similar to viewing SpaceEx rocket material. No honestly, i prefer to be view this market as it is. Market is VERY LONG USDTY and any disappointment in rates (not reducing) may be the catalyst for the large decline. I keep the same strategy SELL current levels 14.25 and upwards and reduce 12.50 and resell on move back 13.50 and then go for the ultimate buy-back 10.25-10.75. in the meantime good luck for Thursday.
Short
by peterbokma
10
Massive !!!Massive volatility breakout according to Bollinger a bulb is a sign of a end of move or reversal imo here idk they are forcing demand in the area which I think they will buy again at a cheaper price I don't see the currency doing much more would I trade against the banks nor to I find buying a market so high flavorful even if it's being manipulated cus that means I'll have to consistently monitor it so I wouldn't trade this pair long term rn therefore there's no reason to traded it short term there are cheaper spread pairs
by Donajor8
USDTRY - CONTINUE SELL The candle stick patterns provide clues on the state of the market. Hammer (inverted) top (cross) plus evening star, and RSI 93.0 for the weekly does not bode well for the longs. Sad to say, I remain steadfast in the belief that we will in fact have a collapse downwards. The GANN resistance 14.62 and 14.30 were attracted yesterday, and no doubt placed fears into then mind of people. Run away trucks are never fun to watch and I fully get it. However, regardless the circumstances, the correction will set in. Do note, that when it comes to this currency pair, we require patience and more importantly do not overtrade. Shorting in very small position sizes to end up a reasonable average. I am sure most of you are aware. Just for guidance sake, assuming shorting since 9.50 (its medium-term view) and low leveraging, at current 13.80 rate we will have reached 1.05x leverage now. So, we are very fine and we can manage it well and have a profit objective of 10-15% at the closing of the positions. Back to the strategy, SELL 14.25 (unless you did 14.30-14.40 in the spike) and also reduce position at 12.50 and re-sell that above 13.50. Overall profit target 10.25>10.50 for now. Have a great day everyone.
Short
by peterbokma
2