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U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira

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USDTRY trade ideas

USDTRY-SELL MTThe pair is very overbought and now we got a negative stoch RSI suggesting we have a start of a corrective pattern. The lower end of the upward sloping channel is 14.2600 and the top above 18.6200. The strategy is unchanged and we should see lower levels in the medium-term. I feel long-term 11.50 possible, based on the long-term overbought state. However, we understand it is a managed float and it may be a slow move, unless some unexpected news like we had last december.
Short
by peterbokma
4
USDTRY-SELL MTThe pair is as usual not moving much and this is the behavior of a managed float and costly exercise for the authorities. The over all picture is, we may see little higher at first, i.e. 18.50-19.00 to satisfy the lower RSI and higher high scenario of negative divergence. Overall, I would prefer short and maintain it and add at certain selected intervals. The likely event is for a decline medium-term, and long-term to an objective of 11.50 (slightly adjust now).
Short
by peterbokma
4
USDTRY-SELL strategy MTShort-term we have been grinding slowly higher, and we are nearing channel resistance 17.88. The medium-term and long-term situation is more interesting, and shows we have reasonable chance to see much lower levels. The pair is way overbought, and even controlled and all the news surrounding the condition of the market, does not change the tech picture we are in. Unless we abandon the system and make it a complete managed float. For now, SELL current 17.50-18.00 and add higher when seen carefully. The profit objective medium-term is 13.75 and long-term 11.50 for now. I am scaling it upwards due to the higher levels seen.
Short
by peterbokma
9
USDTRY-LT SELL+++The pair is way overdone, albeit controlled managed float. Looking at the GANN fan we can observe we are nearing the top 17.65 (sometimes overshoots) and also we see the FALSE BULL FLAG pattern, that has a flag support 14.68 and objective wise 11.80 GANN 1/1 support. Judging the whole chart and the RSI is very overdone, and I mean very very very overdone. This suggests caution on being LONG. I see that we may test little higher though 18.00 above, but overall expect a move back to 12.00 at a minimum based on the GANN support mentioned. So strategy is SELL @ 17.30-18.30 (its medium term so we pick levels) and take profit 12.25 for now.
Short
by peterbokma
11
USDTRY-MT NEUTRAL to upsideI am careful to promote a BUY signal, since the monthly chart is very overdone, and any major event on Turkish Lira can set it back quickly to much lower levels. The stochastic is almost positive, and the GANN resistance is 19.00 area and we have more room on upside medium-term. We may see above 18.00-18.50 before the change of direction sets in. Strategy is SELL @ 18.25-19.00 for medium term objective 10.50-11.25. I would rather use this as a wait and see opportunity and SELL higher up only and not to venture long right now. The short-term chart is slightly positive but will correct back as well. That is why some caution. Overall I see medium- to long-term move down to 10.50-11.00. Slight adjust upwards since we have moved higher as well.
Short
by peterbokma
3
Is Turkish Lira in trouble ?When we read about a currency is plunging against another currency (usually the USD), what we are really saying is there is more supplies of Lira flooding the market. That means 1 USD will get you more TRY (lira) than before. Who is this good for ? Of course , those who has a stronger currency and can get much more LIRA to spend be it food, transport, assets purchases, etc. So, from the chart point of view, you can see that the higher the price shoots up , the weaker is lira against USD. And of course, for its residents who are keen to buy overseas goods, that means they need more LIRA to pay for it. That explains why Apple has to halt its online sales.
by dchua1969