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USD/TRY_TOD - USD/TRY

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USDTRY_TOD trade ideas

When Do Breaking ATMs Signal More Than Just Technical Failure?In a fascinating twist of economic irony, Turkey's banking system faces a crisis not from a shortage of money, but from an overwhelming abundance of near-worthless banknotes. This peculiar situation, where ATMs physically break down from dispensing too many low-value bills, serves as a powerful metaphor for the broader economic challenges facing emerging markets in an era of hyperinflation. The numbers tell an extraordinary tale: a 700% currency depreciation since 2018, 80% of circulating notes being the highest denomination available, and a stark disparity between official inflation rates of 49% and independent estimates of 89%. Yet perhaps most intriguing is the government's reluctance to print larger denominations – a psychological barrier rooted in the traumatic memory of million-lira notes from the 1990s. This resistance to adaptation, despite the obvious operational strain on the banking system, raises profound questions about the role of political psychology in economic policy-making. What emerges is a complex narrative about the intersection of technological capacity, monetary policy, and human psychology. As Turkish banks spend entire days counting money for simple transactions and regulators continuously delay implementing hyperinflationary accounting standards, we witness a unique case study of how modern financial systems can be overwhelmed not by sophisticated cyber threats or market crashes, but by the sheer physical weight of devalued currency. This situation challenges our traditional understanding of banking crises and forces us to reconsider the practical limits of monetary policy in an increasingly digital age.
Long
by signalmastermind
2
USDTRY Approaching the top of the Channel Up.The USDTRY pair has been trading within a 6-month Channel Up and the price is now very close to the pattern's top (Higher Highs trend-line). Technically this is were a rejection should take place to reset the market at the pattern's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line), below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Our Target is 33.4000, which is just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, where the last correction bottomed. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
Shift in Carry Trades: Hedge Funds Embrace USDTRYA Shift in Carry Trades: Hedge Funds Embrace the US Dollar The once-dominant Japanese yen has historically been the preferred currency for carry trade strategies, where investors borrow low-interest-rate currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones. However, a significant shift is underway, as hedge funds increasingly turn to the US dollar as their borrowing currency. This strategic change is driven by a confluence of factors, including the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance, the weakening Japanese yen, and the allure of emerging-market currencies. The Allure of Emerging-Market Currencies Emerging-market currencies have long been a focal point for carry trade strategies, offering the potential for substantial returns. The relatively high interest rates in these economies, coupled with their often-growing economies, make them attractive investment destinations. However, the choice of borrowing currency plays a crucial role in determining the overall risk-reward profile of such trades. The Yen's Diminishing Appeal The Japanese yen has traditionally been a popular choice for carry trades due to its historically low interest rates. However, a combination of factors has eroded its appeal in recent years. The Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, aimed at stimulating the economy, has kept interest rates exceptionally low. Moreover, the yen's weakness against other major currencies has increased the risk of exchange rate losses for investors who borrow in yen. The Rise of the US Dollar The US dollar, once a less common choice for carry trades, has gained prominence as a borrowing currency. Several factors have contributed to this shift. First, the US Federal Reserve's more hawkish monetary policy, characterized by interest rate hikes and a reduction in quantitative easing, has made the dollar a relatively higher-yielding currency. Second, the dollar's strength against other major currencies has reduced the risk of exchange rate losses for investors who borrow in dollars. The Case of USDTRY One notable example of the shift towards US dollar-funded carry trades is the USDTRY pair. The Turkish lira, with its relatively high interest rates, has been a popular target for carry trade investors. However, the increasing political and economic uncertainties in Turkey have made the lira a riskier investment. By borrowing in US dollars, investors can potentially benefit from the interest rate differential while mitigating some of the risks associated with the Turkish lira. Challenges and Considerations While the US dollar-funded carry trades offer potential benefits, they are not without risks. The US Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions, geopolitical events, and economic fluctuations in emerging markets can all impact the profitability of these trades. Additionally, the increasing popularity of carry trade strategies can lead to market volatility and potential reversals. Conclusion The shift in carry trade strategies from the Japanese yen to the US dollar represents a significant development in the global financial markets. As emerging-market currencies continue to offer attractive investment opportunities, the choice of borrowing currency will remain a critical consideration for hedge funds and other investors seeking to capitalize on these trends. While the US dollar has gained prominence, the potential risks and challenges associated with carry trades should be carefully evaluated before making investment decisions.
Long
by bryandowningqln
Collecting Rollover while the TRY RangesThe CBRT has raised rates from 8.5% in June 2023 to currently standing at 50%. There was a recent CBRT meeting where rates where held at 50%. There has been a roll coaster for inflation YoY which was below 20% in 2020, rose as high as 36% in 2021, pushed up to 85.50% in 2022, dropped in 2023 to around 38% at its lowest, then pushed higher to standing at 69.8% currently. It is projected that inflation will push above the 70% lvl this year and eventually cap out and start pushing lower. The Lira is being hit hard and has lost over 80% of its value over five years due to the unorthodox method the President implemented. But with this said, there are things going for the TRY, which is a nice carry trade (I'm in it to win it...corny (yeah I know)), with around an 18%-27% annualized gain (fluctuates), this could be some serious gains (and price has been ranging, so that is good). With the FED potentially go to lower rates in September and with the CBRT having rates at 50%, this could cause the TRY to either keep ranging or eventually push lower. But the CBRT might have to raise rates higher in order to fight inflation that is almost 20% higher than its interest rate. This makes the 30 lvl seem that much more plausible to be hit. Additionally, price is trading towards the 32 lvl and has attempted to trade below the 30 lvl a couple of times. So another hit to the 30 lvl support could potentially push it to my price target of around 27 (mean while I'll be able to collect some rollover). A standard lot holding this pair could bring in around $49 a day (depending on the rate for that day) which is a decent amount. The margin requirement for this pair, at least with my broker is 1:4, which means this pair is highly volatile and risky. This pair can move thousands of pips in a matter of seconds and the spreads are sometimes outrageous. But, around a 1.2 micro lot would be less than $375 in margin, each pip would be a $0.01 move, and rollover per day earned would be around $0.56 a day. The is a good chance that price will stay were it is at and push lower. The 33-35 lvl is the cap, but for price to push as high as 35, there would have to some strong catalysts to make that happen. I think this is all a self-fulling prophecy with all waiting to see when the FED will make its move. For now, the plan is to keep building in this pair, collect rollover, and wait until at least the 30 lvl is hit to make another decision on whether I want to see it play through to the 27 lvl.
Short
by DollarSaenz
5
USDTRY Inflationary uptrend still intact but buy on the right leThe USDTRY pair has almost doubled since our last buy signal (October 27 2022, see chart below): This pair remains one of the most efficient long-term trades long-term as its inflationary uptrend remains intact. We won't turn buyers again however before a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) test or a neutral 1W RSI (less than 50.00). Our next Target is 40.0000 (again on the 10-year Higher Highs trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
Trading Signal for USDTRYDirection: Sell Enter Price: 32.54959 Take Profit: 31.996 Stop Loss: 32.55033 Justification for Forecast: This trading signal has been generated using the EASY Quantum Ai strategy, which combines multiple technical indicators and market analysis to predict currency movements. The following factors were taken into account: 1. Market Trend Analysis: Recent analysis shows a downward trend in the USDTRY pair, confirming the potential for further decline. 2. Economic Indicators: Key economic data from both the United States and Turkey suggest a short-term depreciation of the USD against the TRY, supporting the sell direction. 3. Technical Indicators: The strategy uses a robust combination of RSI, moving averages, and volume metrics. These indicators currently signal bearish momentum. 4. Geopolitical Factors: Current geopolitical tensions and economic policies have influenced investor sentiment, leading to a sell-off in USDTRY. This forecast is designed to help traders make informed decisions by leveraging the comprehensive analysis provided by EASY Quantum Ai strategy.
Short
by ForexRobotEasy
The Turkish lira is dropping to new lows againTurkish lira sinks to fresh lows following the central bank’s interest rate hike The Turkish lira sank to new record lows after Turkey’s central bank raised the country’s benchmark interest rate by 650 basis points in a dramatic monetary policy reversal. The central bank lifted its key interest rate by almost double, from 8.5% to 15% Thursday, marking the country’s first hike since March 2021. However, that was still below Reuters’ expectations of a hike to 21%. The lira — which has been extending its plunge since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s reelection — was last trading at 24.97 against the greenback. ″ is tanking big time and probably will continue to do so as they attempt to play catch up,” said Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, adding that the central bank decision is “a little bit behind the curve.” Newly appointed Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan hinted at more hikes until the inflation situation in the country improves. “Monetary tightening will be further strengthened as much as needed in a timely and gradual manner until a significant improvement in the inflation outlook is achieved,” Erkan said in a statement Thursday. According to government statistics, the country’s annual inflation rate for May stood at 39.59%. Last October saw Turkey’s inflation rate soar to 85.51%.
Long
by SroshMayi
1
Understanding the Turkish Lira Amid Turbulent TimesThe Turkish Lira (TRY) has faced significant depreciation against the US Dollar (USD), driven by a mix of economic and geopolitical factors. This article explores the challenges confronting Turkey and highlights emerging signs of resilience amidst this turbulence. Key Points: Challenges Overview: Turkey grapples with persistent inflation exceeding 60%, tightened monetary policy by the CBRT to combat inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties impacting global energy prices. Resilience Indicators: Despite challenges, Turkey's medium-term program (MTP) shows promise with fiscal discipline and structural reforms. The country maintains relatively sound public finances and benefits from strategic trade relationships and infrastructure investments. Economic Opportunities: Trade ties with the EU, Middle East, and Central Asia offer diversification potential. Infrastructure projects like the Development Road initiative and a resilient tourism sector contribute to economic stability. Future Trajectory: The TRY's future hinges on the CBRT's inflation control measures, successful implementation of structural reforms outlined in the MTP, and capitalizing on trade opportunities amidst geopolitical tensions. Conclusion: While the Turkish Lira faces substantial obstacles, Turkey's proactive economic program and strategic advantages suggest a pathway toward stability and growth. Addressing inflation and leveraging trade relationships are crucial steps towards a more resilient economic future. (Reference: Read more)
Long
by signalmastermind
USD / TRY Long Trade Idea🔔 BUY Signal Alert! 🔔 🔗 Ticker: USD / TRY 🌐 Market: Forex 🔄 Side: Long ⏱️ Type: Swing Trade 🎯 Entry: 31.95 🛑 Stop Loss: 31.32 🥇 First Profit Target: 32.43 🏆 Final Profit Target: 32.88 The CHAMLEO EDGE model uses a proprietary algorithmic program at the pre-market auction to identify potential stocks for each day. The algorithm then calculates where there is strong buying or selling pressure on the stock and sends buy or sell signals. The signal provides a suggested stop loss price based on calculations that the movement may no longer be valid. It also provides a first suggested level for realizing potential profits, indicating that there is a resistance level just beyond this price that may cause the stock to stop and possibly reverse. If this level is surpassed, there is potential to achieve possible profits at a price better than the first profit level, allowing the possibility of extending potential gains.
Long
by Chamleo
Correction is approachingI see that there is a pattern forming that indicates the beginning of the expected correction of the Turkish lira against the US dollar. Please note that this chart is on a monthly frame. It will take a medium period to be implemented. From my point of view, according to this analysis and data, there will be a small rise near the area of 32 to 34 Turkish liras per dollar, and from there a large three-wave correction will begin and extend for several years to come. Then we will update the market. Good luck. *In principle, I am not a supporter of any direction, but I am only giving my point of view, which may be right or wrong. If the analysis helps you, then this is for you. If you do not like this analysis, there is no problem. Just ignore it. My goal is to spread the benefit. I am not one of the founders of the currency.
by KhaldHegazy
9
Stable TL For the Next Few Years? A quick update on the future of the Turkish Lira (TL): Interest rates will rise to the range of 30% to 35% and will remain high for the following years (possibly 2-3 years). The Turkish Central Bank will stop printing vast amounts of money, and getting loans for purchasing houses or cars will become difficult. This action will lower inflation for few years. TL will have a correction to the levels of 20-23 within a few years. After 3-4 years, the next target will be levels of 40-60. The Central Bank will continue to print money and lower the interest rates. That will trigger another inflation around 2027-2028. Targets: First target: Range of 28-29 Second target: Range of 25-28 for a few years Third target: Levels of 20 for a swift correction Last target: Levels of 40 after 2-4 years This constitutes a very long-term analysis. It is important to note that this assessment could be inaccurate; all the stated opinions are personal. The market can undergo drastic changes due to even a minor policy adjustment. Therefore, exercise caution and conduct your own research before making any decisions. Stay safe.
by MinimumWagerLvl1
5
Getting Paid? With the USD/TRY Carry Trade?The USD/TRY has one of the highest Roll Over Interest out there should you choose to take on this highly volatile pair. It isn't so much that it is volatile, it has to do more with price just moves one direction, and that is up. The way we want to go is down (short) or at least sideways (ranging). Why is this interesting? It is because the Rollover Interest for going short stands at a whopping annualized rate of 28.94%. With 1:4 Margin Requirement for trading a standard lot on the TRY (based off the broker I use), $25,000 could earn me $28,940 yearly, which would be a staggering 115% return at the end of the year. Compounded, I would be a multimillionaire in no time, Buying up yachts, private jets, gourmet food, luxury cars, a pony that shoots lasers, Space X Starship, and countless other items. But hold up, is there a downside or something that makes this too good to be true? Yes, there is price movement as well as changes in interest rates as well as capital in the account. Having only $25,000 in the account, going full throttle and placing one huge position is sure to activate a margin call within seconds (as price can move thousands of pips against you quickly) and/or cause you to lose more than you put in. Now, we don't want that. You would need to have at least double the amount in the account in order to allow for price movement. The return would be halved, but making over 50% yearly isn't too bad either, is it? With price movement, the USD/TRY (I just call it the TRY), price moved higher over 57,000 pips in 2022, and over 100,000 pips in 2023; that is $18,240 and $32,000 respectively. Interest have just reached 45%, so things definitely would not have been good. Now, with funds in your account, not to many of us have $25,000 lying around to utilize in the markets, nor do we want to just tie up $25,000 into something really risky. Yet if used correctly and price does stabilize, then the TRY carry trade could payout (similar to the EUR/HUF). What could be done to reduce the risk? For starters, position sizing. Don't use the full force of your account and go "YOLO." Manage expectations. With a $25,000 account size, only getting into a position at around $3,750 (which is about 15% of the account used and a 15k position), would be around $3,650 return, which would be about a 14.6% return (still not bad. How many people can do this). If things go sour and price does move up at the end the year by 100,000 pips against you ($0.05 move per pip), that would be -$5,000 reduced to $1,350 because of the gained rollover interest (which would be only a 5% hit to your account instead of 20%). Putting some hedges in could also reduce some of the risk. Additionally, research and analysis, this could push you to make a more informative speculation on if getting into the pair is a good idea. Furthermore, to really ensure you don't lose any money, is to not get into the pair at all. For myself, I am utilizing around 41% of my Forex account in this pair, about 14% of my overall accounts. There are hedges in place to reduce the impact of price moving against me as well as my position being small enough to not cause any traumatic moves, even if price moves 100,000 pips against me (of course don't want that to happen). The decision is also made to stay in this pair for the long term or until there is some major changes. There is additional funds in reserves if needed, if things don't go well, in order to put another plan into play to get out of my positions in an orderly fashion. You all have some great trading out there.
Education
by DollarSaenz
2
Will TRY Continue to Fly or Will it Hold the 30 and Say GoodbyePrice has been pushing higher and higher and climbed thousands and thousands of PIPs since 2021. But with the increased interest rates (42.5%), will this be enough to prevent price from higher? Potentially. There needs to be more confidence in the Lira, which could be happening. Pimco and Vanguard (US Investment Companies), are investing in Turkey, which could be a good sign. If companies are starting to invest in Turkey, this could help their currency issues. What could also help and maybe is helping currently, is the TRY is a good carry trade, especially if there is a halt to the rapid depreciation in the Lira. The CBRT will likely hold rates at his high lvls for a while as they work to break the upward trajectory. Additionally, if analyst, traders, and investors are correct, and the FED reduces rates, this will assist price on pushing lower. Furthermore, when economic data is released, if inflation starts taking a hit to the downside (currently above 61%), this could bring in that confidence that is needed also and start pushing the TRY lower. If all these factors do improve the Lira, I am thinking price might even be able to hit the 27 lvl. For now, I got a small position on this pair, collecting a decent amount of positive rollover. I will build up as price pushes higher. I am able to sustain if price pushes 10,000 pips against me. Price is currently over 7,000 pips against me, with a manageable floating loss, and I am still looking to build a larger position. Manage your risk and do your own due diligence before placing any trades.
Short
by DollarSaenz
2