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USD/TRY_TOD - USD/TRY

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USDTRY_TOD trade ideas

Lira Explodes, USD Dominates the Foreign Exchange MarketWe mainly viewed the change in the vector of monetary policy in the United States through the prism of the US stock market. But if someone loses, then someone should also win. And that someone is the US dollar. In general, 2021 turned out to be successful for the American currency: the dollar strengthened against all the currencies of the G-10 countries. At the same time, in our opinion, the growth potential has not yet been fully exhausted. In the context of interest rate differentials, its further growth against the New Zealand dollar or the same pound does not look as unambiguous as, for example, against the euro or the Japanese yen. The sale of the Turkish lira looks quite promising after its epic growth at the start of this week. Let us remind you that the economic insanity of Erdogan this year cost the lira very dearly: the currency has depreciated threefold. The sharp rise on Monday is associated with the announcement by the President of Turkey of unprecedented measures to support the national currency. For example, the country's government will reimburse the owners of bank deposits in lira if the Turkish currency falls in price by an amount that exceeds the interest on deposits. In addition, the tax rate on investments in bonds denominated in lira will be reduced from 10% to 0%. And, of course, inflation will decrease in a few months. All this, of course, is great, but how the bloodless Turkish economy will pay for these and other initiatives is not very clear. But it is clear that there is no trust in the lira and will not exist until Erdogan reads at least a couple of basic textbooks on economics. The energy crisis continues in the meantime. Gas prices in Europe have renewed new records, surpassing 2000 per thousand cubic meters. For substitute goods, including oil, this is good news, but last time the rise in gas prices in the 2000 region in Europe was of an exclusively temporary nature, and in just a few days prices then collapsed by more than 50%. So you shouldn't rush to buy oil - on the contrary, its growth is a reason for more expensive sales.
Long
by Trade24Fx
1
USDTRY-BUY strategyThe currency pair seems a little more settled now. The GANN support 10.97 and resistance 13.50 is our defined playing field for now. The stochastic turns positive, and looking at correction I feel we may start looking at long position with a stop below $ 10.50. We will likely return $ 13.50-13.75 > 15.50. Strategy BUY 11.25 - 12.00 and take profit 13.50 > 13.75 with stop-loss 10.50. No doubt it will be a wild ride, so play safe and very small. Long-term SELL at 13.50-15.00 no change in view and take profit below 10.00.
Long
by peterbokma
10
Turkish Lira is far from recovery. This is just a quick look at the USDTRY pair. I'm evaluating the recent recovery of the Turkish Lira versus the dollar from about 8.5 TL per dollar to 7.3 TL. In my estimation, this recovery has not shown enough strength to continue. We can see that as soon as it touched the bottom of the drawn curve, RSI has reached the bottom of its parallel channel. That's as far as this recovery will go. In fact, I think the next five years will see the USD appreciate against the TL by 150%, which is exactly as much as it has appreciated during the past five years. This will take it all the way up to 18TL by February 2026. This signal I consider strong enough to predict a complete reversal of this trend is significant RSI divergence, i.e., a higher high in price coinciding with a lower high in RSI. We have seen one instance of slight RSI divergence shown in the chart which has contributed to a recovery in August 2018 from 7.08 to 5.13 TL. That is 27.5% appreciation for the dollar. To imagine what a significant RSI divergence would look like, consider the most recent top on 2 Nov 2020. Look at the RSI level on that same day. We're looking for a higher top in price where RSI is significantly lower, ideally within the blue zone. That would be a strong signal for trend reversal. Another thing to notice is the blue zone and the ascending parallel channel. What's the meaning of the blue zone? When RSI climbs above it, the asset is said to be overbought. It means that price has went up too high too fast without enough real demand backing it up. However, that interpretation really depends on the parameter used. A better, easier and more reliable way to use RSI is to look for RSI divergence like I explained. That becomes even more relevant for this chart when you notice how RSI levels have been steadily climbing in the parallel channel shown. That means that the overbought zone becomes less and less significant as an indication. But it also means that TL recovery phases will be more and more volatile.
Long
by TechNerdOmar