USDTRY_TOD trade ideas
The Market Only Warns Twice.The structure in USDTRY looks increasingly like 1-2-1-2, which means that a very powerful and unexpected (as usual) spike in 3-of-3 should begin in the next few days.
The market will not give a third warning. When 1-2-1-2 is completed, the big move is imminent and it usually does not take prisoners. At the end, everyone will be blown away as to how far the Lira has crashed. I am convinced that 16-20 is the end target.
If you have any Liras left - do take action urgently.
Dolar TL'de donus basladimerhaba dostlar
USDTRY parite'de yukari yonlu donus basladi
siyasi gelismelere takip edin
Erdogan is a good chess playerTL showed a powerfull downtrend so the citizens see that usdtry can go deeper. so they started to sell their usd
People give up to buy usd. so dollarization will be limited in the country
Interest Rate Will Not Change to keep currency stable for mid term
traders will open short trade as a carry trade with a cheaper try
IMPORTANT : this idea is valid under 1 or 2 more weekly close below 8,30
USDTRY is in a critical zonein the last 1800 days , USDRTY has been respecting its EMA50.
now EMA50 value is 7.19 usd. bellow that we have very strong S/R zone of 7.00usd that is very important round number too.
i think tomorrow is vital for this pair.
as the overall trend is uptrend , i think price will rise from here to touch 7.5us , 8.5usd and maybe higher levels.
in case of strong close bellow 7usd,the next barrier would be 6.6usd that is coincided place of EMA100 and strong S/R zone
I won't sell this pair! i will buy ! but later!USDTRY is in a long-term uptrend for more than 12 years and , same as any trend, it tends to have pullbacks.
for the 1st time this pair has broken EMA50 (in weekly time-frame).
But, bellow , we have the very strong S/R zone of (6.7 to 6.9) it is in coincidence with ema100(weekly).
i wont sell this pair until this level is not broken.
#turkey #turkish lira #USDTRY about to moonThis macro event can accelerate #Bitcoin to new highs; Turkey has no regulations or taxes on crypto. If you lived in Turkey and this was happening, gold is confiscated...what would you do?
USDTRY - Long IdeaI posted this long Idea based off this green trendline shown, back in February.
Price reacted to that level, but more importantly are the Macro events in Turkey at the moment.
I see the trade long. I have highlighted a 2:1RR with 1% Risk.
This is a 12 hour chart...I am stepping back in timeframes to wash away some of the silliness in the market, it's helping.
USD/TRY 15 minute chart, week viewUSD/TRY 15 minute chart, week view:
R3 = 8.2224
R2 = 8.1829
R1 = 8.1434
pivot = 8.1039
S1 = 8.0605
S2 = 8.0249
S3 = 7.9815
Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. You win some or you learn some. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Good luck and happy trading friends...
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USD TRY Log TrendTHE USDTRY pair has been following a channel since 2013. It broke upwards in 2018 to a new level of the channel. Then it started forming a flag formation. This flag formation was recently broken upwards and retested. Logically the next stop should be the 10-10.5 TRY level and then play out horizontally a while. If however things go from bad to worse we could see a spike to the next level of the channel close to 14.00 TRY. If that is broken too, the next level of the channel could take us close to 20.00.
BULLISH MOMENTUMTHIS IS MY BULLISH TREND CONTINUE IDEA. HOWEVER WAIT FOR COME KEY LEVEL AFTER HOW TO RESPECT TO KEY LEVEL AFTER TREND CONTINUE TO UP TREND YOU CAN ENTRY ,SO THIS IS MY OPINION ONLY .
Comparing Lira in 2021 to the crash of USDRUB in 1998The closest analogy of what's going to happen to Lira is the crash of the Russian Ruble in 1998.
- Aug 17th 1998: 6.43
- Sept 8th 1998: 20.83
In three weeks the Ruble lost more than 2/3 of its value and the government had to default on sovereign debt.
That contagion caught the world's biggest hedge fund of that time, LTCM, on the wrong side of the trade. The fund was liquidated, The Fed had to be heavily involved in order to prevent the risk of market shutdown.
I have no doubt that the Lira will crash and the magnitude of the move will be similar to that of USDRUB in 1998.
It's important to understand that the Lira is not the cause, it's just a consequence of bigger things happening in the market. This time the root cause of the crash is the sell-off in Treasuries and the rush into the dollar created by it. Panic selling in Treasuries will ignite a mass exodus from debt and equity of every kind into the dollar, causing the latter to uptrend wildly and taking down every other currency except the Yen.
What's the best course of action for the next few months: if you are in Turkey and you have any Liras left, rush to the nearest exchange booth right now and buy some dollars. If you're elsewhere in other emerging markets, then buying dollar is equally good.
USDTRY to stay above 7.50 for long timeTRY has been experiencing record-level volatility since November 2020, which proved increasingly difficult to make predictions for future behavior.
Yet the recent price movements certainly prove 7.50 to be a major resistance level going forward.
