USDTRY_TOD trade ideas
Fasten your seat belts, Turkey's economy is collapsing...According to the chart on forex.com, it may be funny to analyze a currency whose country is suffering from a crisis like an earthquake, because it is a crisis and it makes the currency of poor quality, but when we investigate further, we see that all these events in the currency are related to political events and The new crisis of the earthquake shook the currency a little, but it did not have a strong impact.
Therefore, according to my words, the currency that could be controlled at 18.46 dollars and was not controlled can easily reach the border between 32 and 34 dollars based on Fibonacci and a large and beautiful economy like Turkey will undergo transformation and destruction.
Even if the Turkish government can bring its currency below 18.46 dollars today, it will be too late, but lowering the price of the currency today can help Turkey's crisis-stricken economy.
But I think that the Turkish government should not involve itself in lowering the price of the currency, and therefore it will slowly suffer inflation and gradually transform the great economy of Turkey to the limit of 32 and 34 dollars. So I'm sorry to say, fasten your seat belts, Turkey's economy is collapsing and will see $32.
USDTRY-Long Term SELLNo change in view, and I believe the pair might have its dramatic correction after the election results May 14th, if not mistaken.
The technical picture is extremely overbought, and we do need a solid correction moving towards 12.50-15.00 at least before we resume upwards again.
Strategy is remain SHORT at various levels, and take profit @ 15.25 and next @ 13.50.
Will Turkish lira reverse if new leader is elected?Could the upcoming Turkey election effect how their currency lira performs against western currencies including the USD? Any potential new leader may be able to get the lira to be much stronger then over the last few years. As for today, the USD against the Turkish lira is the only currency which seems to be somewhat strong in the world of Oanda forex. When my usual frequent scanning across forex and CFD universe, there are very few instruments that showed a consistent profit for the day. Something very strange is happening in the global markets today
full analysisThis analysis may be right or wrong. I always hope for the best and the best for the Turkish people, but my analysis is based on data only and not on wishes and the rules of Elliott science. This time frame is three months, which means a large frame and its implementation needs many years.
The currency rose in one large extended wave and made wave two, and it is expected to end in the next wave three, and it will be yellower than wave one at approximately 50% Fibonacci at the shaded area
Welcome to another debt crisis in economic history 7!It's been a while since I tracked the #usdtry pair. You can also find my past reviews below for comparison.
Concerns over
- high inflation,
- high levels of debt
- external financing needs
- geopolitical tensions
- a looser monetary policy stance to support economic growth
- high-level gov. corruption
- pressure on the parity
imo parity will be stabilized around 33-46
USDTRY-Long-term SELLFor sure some comments coming my way.
I remain from a technical perspective to be SHORT @ anywhere 18.00-21.00 for a move below 15.00. The election is coming soon, and any major change may bring the pair much lower.
Further, RSI extreme, and MACD is actually negative for the monthly chart.
I understand previous comments that it is not good for the country to have lower exchange rate, but all am saying we need to relieve the pressure long-term to trade in the 11.00 - 15.00 range before we move beyond 20.00 confidently.
USDTRY bullish extension of 2022USDTRY looks bullish over 50 SMA moving average line. I expect a bullish continuation of the late 2022 upside swing. RSI indicator shows over 50 bullish zone also.
Possible short-term targets
19.70
19.90
I think the price could test the psychological 20.00 level
There will be a major collapse before the election.We can see 17₺ or maybe 16.5₺.
Don't forget! This is just a beyond technical analysis method.
Good Luck!
USDTRY is losing momentumUSDTRY reached to the maximum level of upswing trend of 2021 on 19.30 point.
Price is losing momentum with 25 EMA and Relative Strenght index.
I think USDTRY need some pullback it can be fast like previous swing.
Possible targets 16.10 and 14.20
Continue Long DO NOT FORGET USING A STOP LOSS
Warning:
This is just a suggestion and we do not guarantee profits. We advise you analyze the chart before opening any position.
I hope you are always profitable
USDTRY Bullish TrendUSDTRY looks in bullish trend and at this level a buy limit entry can be good trade as per my define SL and TP level.
USDTRY Bullish TrendUSDTRY is in bullish trend and a buy limit order entry as per my trade plan can be good trade.
USDTRY-Long-Term SELLI have not changed the view that the pair is way overdone, and that there will be a large decline coming. However, some very useful comments from viewers, that it is difficult for a decline due to the fact it would hurt the economy etc,
The catalyst for a sharp decline back to 10.50 > 13.75, is at election time results, that may result in changes to the management of the pair by the central bank and government stance. Let's see what will develop.
USDTRY- SELL Long-TermIt is very nice to receive so many comments on this pair. Some are kind of less polite, but that's no issue since all we are trying to do is to create technical analysis.
The pair has been climbing artificially (manipulated) for many months now. The RSI is way beyond the technical dreams on the monthly chart, and this suggest highly a correction back to 15.00 > 10.00 area. The May 14 elections will be the catalyst, and any major change in the current state, means USDTRY will GAP open to trade below 15.00. The rest market will adjust it slowly towards 11.00 eventhough ultimately we will see 9.50.
this all sounds incredible, but remember change of central bank policy and government, would mean higher interest rates to fight inflation etc and this will support the currency by then. Anyway, my viewpoint which for sure will attract the usual comments.
Welcome to write your comments and/or your own chart and forecast,.
USDTRY BUYA big devaluation coming for USDTRY. There will be election one month later. Turkey is edge of big crises.
new idea on TRY/USD Turkish lira/dollar continues to fall.
The Turkish lira managed to break the 0.055 support to the downside and is now targeting the 0.029 support.
How to be careful against manipulation while trading Forex?It all started on the morning of December 20, 2021. The "Up Tick Rule" was implemented for one day in the stock market. The Up Tick Rule is an application that reduces the declines caused by short selling in stocks and is implemented to limit selling pressure.
The implementation method of this rule is that even though the capital market instrument subject to short selling can be realized at a price higher than the last transaction price, the short selling transaction can also be made at the last transaction price level if the last transaction price of the capital market instrument subject to short selling is higher than the previous price.
Thus, with the implementation of this rule, the possibility of the dollar falling is minimized. The dollar is raised up to 18.36 Turkish liras. At 18:15, after the daytime market closed, the manipulation began.
On the evening of December 20, 2021, the Central Bank started selling dollars through public banks at very low exchange rates. The aim was to transfer capital to some of the supporters by selling the Central Bank's dollars for less than 10 Turkish liras, but the dollar only fell to 12.49 Turkish liras. Because an investor who was unaware of this operation bought $1.5 billion at an average rate of 12.50 Turkish liras. Since the Central Bank had exhausted its selling limit for that day, it couldn't sell any more dollars. Thus, the operation remained incomplete.
With the panic that started in the market, BIST presented an announcement for approval at 09:25 on the morning of December 21, 2021. A trap was set for stock market investors to complete the operation. At 09:46 (16 minutes after the opening of the stock exchange), the approval of the announcement was published on KAP.
In this announcement, the limit for selling dollars at a discount of up to 10% was increased to 80%. However, during the 16-minute period before investors learned of this decision, the Central Bank's dollar reserves, which had started selling at 18.22 Turkish liras on the new day, had already been sold down to the level of 3.65 Turkish liras. (Although this level of 3.65 Turkish liras may not be visible on the Tradingview chart, data is available on applications such as Bloomberg Terminal and Matriks.)
The identity of those who had prior knowledge and purchased dollars at almost no cost is unknown. The Central Bank has been robbed, and those who were aware of the operation have made large profits, while others have lost their money and assets. Instead of protecting investors against manipulation, it looks like SPK and BIST have facilitated the setting of traps for them.
The most basic thing we can do to protect ourselves against such manipulations is to be vigilant when buying and selling currencies of countries with low credibility.
Turkish Lira hyperinflation phase 3 starts nowTurkish lira is toast...hyperinflation starts now...next 1-2 years things will go quickly
Turkish Lira is trading at a premium currently With current economic situations I believe After Erodgan's strong stance against monetary policy I believe we will see lower price's - The future will tell ;-)
A Simple but Effective USDTRY Trading StrategyThe USDTRY pair tends to be extremely volatile, and hence it brings many scalping opportunities.
On the sell side, and on the hourly chart, you need to keep an eye on EMA-200, EMA-25, trading volume, its MA, and a few important points of time during the day. Zoom into the chart.
By 7:00 AM UTC (sometimes 8:00 AM), a significant trading volume spike above its MA line usually occurs and is followed by consolidation above the EMA-25 ahead of breaching it. By breaching the EMA-25, USDTRY usually breaks significantly below the EMA-200. A trader may enter a sell position as the USDTRY breaches the EMA-25 and close their position after nearly 4,000 ticks below the closing price of the 7:00 AM candle.
On the buy side, the move tends to be much faster. After that long bearish candle that breaks below the EMA-200, a long bullish candle usually forms with an opening price that is nearly identical to the closing price of that bearish candle. This bullish candle usually forms between 21:00-23:00. This move usually targets the EMA-25, about 4,000-8,000 ticks above the opening price of the bullish candle.
These strategies above seem to be intuitive for many traders. However, the previous patterns are usually followed by a significant amount of volatility. So, prudent risk management must be taken into account.
I would appreciate your opinion and I would be very thankful if you can cheer my account up a little :)
Usdtr sell 18.8245Usdtr sell. Turkey was hit by earthquakes and in the result of this tragedy Turkish lira will become stronger.
Insurance payments and other expenses will cause liquidations of foreign assets belonging to turkey’s funds and government, money from those assets will have to be converted to Turkish lira-demand will grow and currency will strengthen.
Let’s see how this will unfold.
