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U.S. DOLLAR / TAIWAN NEW DOLLAR

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USDTWD trade ideas

Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 47 - USDTWD - (18th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing USDTWD, starting from the 4-Month chart. If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
Education
by Road_2_Funded
God bless East AsiaIt used to be unrealistic to think that there was a war at home. But now this concern is becoming increasingly real. Especially in 2024, with November 2024 being the most likely month for a war to occur. If the new Taiwan dollar depreciates by more than 10% in an instant in November, then my biggest concern means it will happen. Although the Ukrainian war sympathizes with them, to be honest, there is no real feeling, but now the real danger seems to be about to begin. I sincerely hope for peace across the Taiwan Strait. Even like the K-line, the future, like the past, is destined, and time is likely to have no sequence. But when war truly occurs, the pain and torment, even if destined, are unbearable.
Long
by Freedom_CN
2
Taiwan's export orders performed well in FebruaryTaiwan's export order totaled US$42.59 billion in February, with an YOY increase of 48.5%. The export order is estimated to grow even more by US$54.5 ~ US$56 billion in March, according to the ministry. MM analysis ICT ( +88.4% ), electronic products ( +52.4% ) and optical equipment industries ( +59.4% ) became the main driving force, drove up huge amount of demand. Export regions mainly comes from the US ( +50.2% ), China & Hong Kong ( +48.6% ), and Europe ( +73.4% ), implying strong inventory replenishment demand by companies and overall a strong economic rebounds!
by MacroMicro_Global
The Low Volatility Taiwan Dollar Is Now Less VolatileThe already incredible low volatility of the US dollar to the Taiwan dollar somehow over the past few weeks managed to drop volatility even lower than before. The range trading has tightened further from 30.42 to 31 by a tighter range of 30.65 to 30.94. This is truly incredible, even for the foreign exchange market which has suffered (or enjoyed given your financial position) from extremely low volatility compared to other asset classes such as commodities or equities. The question remains if this volatility can be sustained and if so for how long. Clearly, this pair suffers from low liquidity which can be seen by long tails of the candlesticks indicating short-term volatility. Less clear is the fact that this pair is still manipulated by the central bank. Either way, USDTWD is a fairly stable pair to invest in with foreign exchange risk extremely low, at least for now.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
Go long in USDTWD as upswings break 200DMA & trendline supportThe current price upswings have spiked above DMAs, while 7DMA crosses over 21DMA which is the bullish crossover. The breach above 200 day moving average opens room for more upside. The trend line support from the August lows should offer robust downside protection while the recent break above the 200d moving average (31.99), the sustenance above would signal more scope for further upside potential. While the leading indicators with their constant upward convergence to the upswings in price are the confirmation to the strength in the uptrend. MACD is also substantiating this bullish stance with its bullish crossover above zero level. Most importantly, this bullish price behavior has consistently been taking support at rising trendline that is attempting hover above DMAs. For now, bulls are testing a stiff resistance at 32.101 level, we believe any decisive breach above would intensify the bullish momentum. Hence, we advocate staying long in this pair for next target of 32.405 for sure upon breach of above-stated resistance.
Long
by FxWirePro
USD/TWD longs encouraged by fundamentals but technicals dubiousLongs USDTWD on its attractive carry are encouraged as the China exposure sentiment toward EM currencies could be in the process of shifting and we prefer to focus on regional low yielders in expressing a bullish dollar view. The slew of hawkish commentary from Fed officials in recent weeks as put the possibility of a rate hike back in play for H2. Chinese growth should be biased to downward surprises as the year progresses. Markets have been complacent to these growing risks and short dollar positioning could start to shift to a more neutral exposure. In Asia, long USDTWD looks appealing on both the Fed and China angles. The TWD is a rate-sensitive currency given the dominance of local life insurance companies in deciding to allocate to local or foreign bonds. During August, the TWD strengthened more than rate differentials would have suggested so it is prone to a realignment on this front. Taiwan is also the most impacted country from China’s growth slowdown (direct and re-exports to China is the highest in EM). While a repeat of the stresses experienced in 2015 are unlikely (investors are better conditioned to the known risks), risk-reward is starting to favour long dollar positions to fade the EM rally. But on the contrary, technically, after two weeks of rallies in USDTWD, shooting star pattern candle is spotted out on weekly charts losing the momentum in previous rallies. Moreover, we see no traces of significant bounce back so far except the most likely hammer pattern candle formation on the monthly graph. Whereas, the ongoing upswings on both daily and weekly charts seem exhausted with leading oscillators approaching overbought trajectory. Despite these upswings have remained well below DMAs and EMAs, while MACD evidences bearish crossover again both time frames. Thus, speculating further upswings are absolutely not advisable; instead, foreign traders with short term dollar exposures are advised hedging upside risks.
by FxWirePro