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U.S. DOLLAR / WTI CRUDE OILU.S. DOLLAR / WTI CRUDE OILU.S. DOLLAR / WTI CRUDE OIL

U.S. DOLLAR / WTI CRUDE OIL

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Oil Tariff Problems – Breaking Lower From a Sideways Range?In a previous post on Oil from December 9th (please take a look at our timeline for details) we highlighted that prices were back to an interesting level on the chart. Tests of an uptrend, which had been forming since the September 10th low at 65.63, were being seen as a sideways range in price developed. It was suggested at the time that traders may be watching this support level, as closing breaks below it might expose a more extended phase of price weakness, or if the support held, upside pressures might emerge once more. As we now know, the support level remained intact and a strong price rally was seen up to 81.01, the January 15th session high. However, as impressive as the December/January Oil price strength proved to be, after trading to the 81.01 January 15th highs, there was an equally significant failure of upside momentum, as sellers materialised again. This saw a sharp decline in Oil prices, all the way down to 67.11 the latest correction low posted on March 4th. Now, this last move lower has been in response to concerns about the demand outlook for Oil across the rest of 2025 as President Trump’s tariffs on key trading partners Canada, Mexico and China took effect and were met by retaliatory tariffs back on US goods. The fear is that an escalation of trade wars will negatively impact the global economy, and the ensuring slowdown will see the demand for Oil reduce. Whether it does or not remains to be seen, but Oil prices may remain volatile across the rest of this week as traders receive more tariff updates and start to focus on key US economic data in the form of the US ISM Services PMI, released tomorrow at 1500 GMT, and then the all important US Non-farm Payrolls, which is released at 1330 GMT on Friday. Technical Focus: What is now interesting with the chart above, is that Tuesday is seeing breaks under the support offered by the uptrend, which if confirmed on a closing basis, may in turn suggest the possibility of a more extended phase of Oil price weakness. This type of break lower in price is no guarantee of further declines and much will depend on future price sentiment and trends, but if it does happen, being aware of possible support levels, can be helpful. Technical Update: Potential Oil Price Downside Focus Previous correction lows are often a good place to start, as they have held declines before and seen prices rally, so are potentially areas where buyers maybe found again. With this in mind, 66.75, the November 18th low, or even 65.63, which was the September 10th low, may well be worth watching as possible support levels. Now, if these lower supports do give way on a closing basis, it’s not out of the question from a longer term perspective that there could be potential for an even deeper decline. If this is the case, as highlighted on the chart above, it might prove to be 63.68, which was the May 2023 low, or even 61.91, which was the November 2021 low that could in time come into focus. What if the Support Holds? Now, with so much uncertainty, it is possible that these support levels hold, so having some potential resistance levels to consider if there is a bounce can also be useful. Half of this week’s sell-off stands at 68.84, which if broken to the upside may suggest greater risks for continued Oil price strength. However, as recently proved to be the case when the market recovered into the 68.47 February 20th price high, it was the declining Bollinger mid-average that limited and then reversed the rally back to the downside. So, it could be this mid-average, which currently stands at 70.95, that traders might feel is a more challenging resistance area to overcome. Certainly, it would need to be broken on an upside closing basis, before evidence might turn towards a more extended retracement of January/March price declines. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDE
by Pepperstone
1
Oil Drops Below $68 Amid Trade Wars and Oversupply RisksCrude Oil drops on oversupply risks and weakening demand expectations Key Events: - Trade wars between the world’s largest economies heightens inflation and economic contraction risks - OPEC plans to unwind supply cuts in April despite oversupply concerns. - Trump - Ukraine dispute may disrupt oil's bearish trend if tensions escalate with the EU and Russia. Key Levels: Oil eyes a 4-year support zone ($63.80–$66), and the potential for the consolidation to extend above that zone persists. - A close below $63.80 may extend declines to $61.50, $60, and $55 (aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-2022 uptrend. - A hold above $68.80 could cap gains at $70.50, $73.50, and $75. Upside potential on Oil is expected to remain short-lived given the bearish implications of trade wars in tandem with oil's 2022 - 2025 dominant downtrend. A clean close above 78-80 zone may reinforce longer term bullish expectations. - Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom
Oil drops againCrude oil rallied sharply last Thursday, but not by enough to push prices into positive territory for the week, let alone the month of February. It went on to sell off sharply yesterday, following a report that OPEC+ would not be extending their production cuts beyond April. The production cuts have been running since May 2023, and have been extended on several occasions. Most analysts believed that OPEC would roll over the cuts beyond April, given the supply dynamics that have kept prices subdued, along with a succession of downgrades to the demand growth outlook. It is now estimated that supply will be boosted by an additional 138,000 barrels per day, mostly from Saudi Arabia and Russia. With Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada kicking in today, and with China retaliating against additional tariffs with levies of its own on US imports, the world trade situation is getting increasingly, and unnecessarily, complex. Front-month WTI continues to trade south of $70 per barrel and this will be its first hurdle on any rally attempt. The daily MACD is in negative territory, but it is not back to the kind of oversold levels from which big rallies have previously begun. Overall, it feels as if the bears have control, having driven back prices from the highs made in mid-January. Back then, crude looked as if it had finally broken out of a downtrend which had been building from September 2023. Crude was lower again this morning, shrugging off some relatively upbeat manufacturing data from China. Investors have yet to be convinced that the Chinese economy is ready to recover from its disastrous property collapse. This saw the evaporation of billions of yuan, with a significant proportion owned by private citizens, and the subsequent loss of confidence. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:WTI
by TradeNation
USOIL As we can see price is approaching the previous highs that supply was made .This level is now a resistance point . In current trades , traders can secure a profit target at that level . Now If the price breaks that level which is 70.32, we can expect price to further on continue a bullish movement towards 71.13 after a break and retest depending on the momentum of the market . Traders are therefore encouraged to look at these key levels if we expect a beginning of a bullish trend. Further swings could be aimed at 71.55 - 71.98 Wish you the best of luck 💯
TVC:USOILLong
by manuelyeboah33
1
USOIL Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the USOIL next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 69.92 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 69.38 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TVC:USOILShort
by AnabelSignals
1
Long USOIL: Targeting $70.20 Amid Bullish MomentumThe price of USOIL has recently bounced off a key support level, confirming a successful retest of the previous demand zone. The support level aligns with a significant price reaction area, reinforcing its strength. Additionally, the MACD indicator is showing a bullish crossover, signaling a potential upward momentum shift. Volume analysis indicates increased buying activity near the support zone, suggesting strong participation from buyers. Given these technical factors, a long position with a target of 70.2 is supported by confluence from multiple indicators and price action confirmation.
FX:USOILLong
by FtradeFXArabic
USOIL Short Idea - 4H ChartWTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is currently facing strong resistance at the 70.50 - 71.00 supply zone, aligning with the 200 EMA rejection and previous structural resistance. The price has failed to break above this level and is showing signs of bearish momentum. Trade Setup: 🔹 Entry: Look for bearish confirmation near the 70.50 - 71.00 supply zone. 🔹 Stop Loss: Above 71.20, beyond recent highs to avoid stop hunts. 🔹 Target: The next major support zone near 66.00 - 66.50, a key demand area. The trend remains bearish below the 200 EMA, and the recent pullback into resistance presents a potential continuation of the downtrend. If price holds below the resistance zone, expect a further decline towards lower support levels. 📉 Watch for: Bearish rejections, engulfing candles, or lower timeframe confirmations before entering a short position. 🔔 Stay patient and follow risk management! 🚀
TVC:USOILShort
by SanchoAT
Market Analysis: Oil Price Eyes RecoveryMarket Analysis: Oil Price Eyes Recovery Crude oil price is recovering and it could climb further higher toward the $71.80 resistance. Important Takeaways for Oil Price Analysis Today - Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $68.90 resistance zone. - There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $69.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen. Oil Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a decent increase against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $68.90 resistance. The bulls pushed the price above the 50-hour simple moving average and the RSI climbed toward 65. There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71.12 swing high to the $68.24 low. Immediate resistance is near the $70.45 level. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $71.12 swing high to the $68.24 low. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $71.10. The next major resistance is near the $71.80 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72.50 level. Conversely, the price might correct gains and test the $69.50 support. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $69.50 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near the $68.90 level. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $68.25. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $66.50 support zone. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
1