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U.S. Dollar / South African Rand

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USDZAR trade ideas

SA budget speech and CPI in focusThe rand posted gains for the second consecutive week last week off the back of broad based dollar weakness which allowed the local unit to hold the pair below the 50-day MA rate of 18.48. The dollar weakness came as a surprise last week given the higher than expected US CPI print of 3.3%, for the fourth consecutive month, coupled with Powell’s hawkish tone at his testimony before congress. There are no major data prints his week so focus will shift to the local side of things with the SA annual budget speech and the local CPI numbers for the month of January in focus. CPI in SA is currently well below the SARB’s midpoint target of 4.5% after the December CPI came in at 3.0%, up from 2.9% in November which has many calling for a more accommodative monetary policy stance from the SARB. The SA budget side of things are also positive with treasury revenue collections expected to come in higher than initial projections which will allow treasury to issue fewer bonds to the market this calendar year. Both the lower SA inflation environment and improved revenue collection will provide some support for the rand in the current turbulence of the dollar. I will update this idea with more detail on the SA budget after the budget speech. For this week the key support level to watch is 18.30 while the key resistance is the 50-day MA of 18.48. A break below 18.30 will see the rand pull the pair out of the current upward channel and towards the 200-day MA support of 18.11. A break below 18.11 will invalidate all my previous ideas calling for a move to 19.35. A move towards 18.11 could be a bear trap which is why I’m moving my invalidation rate from 18.30 to 18.11.
by Goose96
10
USDZAR-NEUTRAL BUY strategy 3 hourly chartThe regression channel has ample room either way, and we are close to support level 18.3000 and a break below suggest 18.1100 direction. The overall view is still a chance for higher levels, but 18.4675 needs to be challenged to see 18.5850 again. For the reasons stated am NEUTRAL with buying bias. I wish to add we are completing also (b) wave and it seems not clear as yet on its completion. Strategy BUY 18.3150 - 18.3450 and take profit @ 18.5350 (but watch if we break the resistances mentioned). I never state SL levels, as this is individual decision, and of course we are in need of a proper risk management and leverage strategy to ensure we become or remain profitable.
by peterbokma
1
USDZAR-NEUTRAL SELL strategy 9-hourly chartI feel we are near the lower end of the price, but am finding some reasons of some further downside before higher to be seen again. the GANN SQ has room lower, and we have broken support at 18.3450 area, but not convincingly as yet. that is why am NEUTRAL with some sell inclination short term. Near 18.2000 will be more confident on a BUY. Strategy range 18.2050-18.4750 for now. Likely SELL into rally for now until we see a dedfinate change.
by peterbokma
Bullish bounce?USD/ZAR is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 18.4638 1st Support: 18.3048 1st Resistance: 18.6315 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
USD/ZAR Buying Opportunity🔹 Entry Zone: Around 18.307 🔹 Take Profit 1: 18.354 🔹 Take Profit 2: 18.390 🔹 Take Profit 3: 18.439 🔹 Stop Loss: Below 18.266 Analysis: USD/ZAR is currently sitting at a strong support level, where price has previously bounced multiple times. This area has shown buying interest, indicating a potential reversal. 🔹 The RSI is oversold, suggesting possible bullish momentum ahead. 🔹 Price is forming a double bottom structure, which often signals a trend reversal. 🔹 If buyers step in at this level, we could see a move towards the next key resistance zones at 18.39 and 18.44. As always, risk management is key—watch for confirmations before entering!
Long
by Charts_M7M
USDZAR Analysis: A Buy Setup in FebruaryThe USDZAR daily timeframe for February presents an "open low" structure, indicating a potential BUY SETUP . This structure signifies that the market has maintained a bullish sentiment, starting with low prices early in the month and showing an upward trajectory. Traders should note this trend and align their strategies accordingly, as it suggests strong buyer activity. February’s price action offers opportunities for long positions, supported by additional technical indicators confirming the market’s direction. A significant confirmation of buyers’ presence in the market came with today’s TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) cross. The TDI cross, a widely-used momentum indicator, reflects strengthening bullish momentum. This confirmation aligns with the ongoing bullish structure, giving traders confidence in pursuing long positions on USDZAR. Such setups are especially valuable for traders monitoring currency pairs with volatile price movements like USDZAR. Adding further support to the buy setup is the presence of a clear bullish divergence. This divergence began forming on Friday, January 24th, and continues through the current market low. Divergences between price action and momentum indicators often signal potential reversals or continuation of trends. In this case, the bullish divergence reinforces the likelihood of price moving higher, aligning with the broader market structure. For precision in trade execution, traders should look for buy entries on lower timeframes. This strategy ensures optimized entry points while minimizing potential drawdowns. Target zones for profit-taking are critical for a structured trade plan. The first take-profit target for USDZAR is set at 18.59211 , providing an initial benchmark for closing partial positions or locking in profits. The second take-profit target, slightly higher at 18.67943 , offers a secondary level for maximizing gains as the bullish trend unfolds. Proper risk management remains a cornerstone of successful trading. Traders should assess their risk-to-reward ratios carefully, setting stop-loss levels to protect against unexpected market reversals. Managing position sizes relative to account equity is essential for mitigating potential losses while capitalizing on this promising USDZAR buy setup.
Long
by ezeepips
Communist Land Expropriation Fun IncomingThe idiot Ramaphosa and his stalwart of Cadre's fail to understand that land was not gridded off before the West came. Not one fence. Not one road. Land was not "Land" in the same way it's being categorized in the redistribution laws (lately approved). There was not a phone in sight. Not a map. Just teritorial p***sing ground for warring tribes. Territories would shift according to whichever tribe was more aggressive. One day it was Chief Ngqika ka Mlawu of the Xhosa's land. The next it was Shaka Zulu. And so it had been for hundreds of years with Khoi San having been invaded before then. Hence the idea is idiotic from the start. But that won't stop him from juicing the last stores of wealth out of the country to preserve his power. When the US inherets western skill-forces, the Dollar will further appreciate. White South Africans being among the most skilled people in the world - Musk being the prime example, but many others: 1. Mark Shuttleworth An entrepreneur and philanthropist, Shuttleworth founded Thawte, a company specializing in digital certificates and internet security, which he sold to VeriSign in 1999. He later established Canonical Ltd., the company behind the Ubuntu operating system. In 2002, Shuttleworth became the first South African in space as a space tourist aboard a Russian Soyuz mission. (BRITANNICA.COM) 2. Roelof Botha A venture capitalist and company director, Botha has been influential in Silicon Valley. He played a significant role in the early stages of companies like YouTube and is a partner at Sequoia Capital, a leading venture capital firm. (MG.CO.ZA) 3. Vinny Lingham An internet entrepreneur, Lingham co-founded and served as CEO of Gyft, a mobile gift card company acquired by First Data Corporation in 2014. He is also the co-founder and CEO of Civic, a startup focusing on identity protection and management. EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG 4. Lyndon and Peter Rive Brothers Lyndon and Peter Rive co-founded SolarCity, which became the largest provider of residential solar energy services in the U.S. Their efforts have significantly contributed to the adoption of clean energy solutions across the country. MG.CO.ZA 5. Paul Maritz Originally from KwaZulu-Natal, Maritz became the CEO of VMware, a global leader in cloud computing and virtualization technology. His leadership has been pivotal in advancing enterprise software solutions. (MG.CO.ZA) These individuals exemplify the diverse contributions of South African-born professionals to various industries in the United States. This is not a race-baiting post. But the numbers are clear. And the situation seems unavoidable at this point. Ramaphosa is an idiot, and so are his crew of Zimbabwe-style know-nothings.
Long
by Crypto_Curry
1
USDZAR sailing in turbulent Trump tidesLast week has been a rollercoaster for the ZAR after gaping up and touching a high of 19.00 in the early hours of Monday morning following the news of Trumps executive order. The rand however regained its footing as the news got digested which allowed the rand to pull the pair below the 50-day MA currently at 18.45. It seems as if an ABC corrective wave has taken place which is indicative of another 5-wave impulse higher for the pair. The 50-day MA at 18.45 and the current yearly low of 18.30 serve as the critical levels to watch on the pair. A failed break below 18.30 will create a double bottom at this level which will leave the rand stranded ready to be pulled higher towards 19.22. A break below 18.30 will however allow the rand to pull the pair out of the current upward channel and test the 200-day support at 18.12. This move will invalidate my current idea on the pair. The main event to watch for the week is the US CPI print for January, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.9%, just like it did back for the December print. US inflation has been ticking higher since October last year, almost right after the Fed started their cutting cycle and anything other than an inline or lower than expected CPI print will have the USDZAR packing and making its way above 19.00 since it will indicate that the Fed will stay higher for longer.
Long
by Goose96