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U.S. Dollar / South African Rand

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USDZAR trade ideas

Testing critical levelThe pair is currently testing the 61.8% Fibo level at 18.97 and we have the psychological resistance rate sitting at 19.00. A break above this resistance range will see the rand slide to the top end of the current blue downward trend line which coincides with the red resistance range between 19.15 and 19.30. A failed break above 19.00 will allow the rand to pull the pair back onto the 50-day and 200-day MA rates at 18.73 and 18.75, respectively. Fundamentally, commodity prices, particularly platinum have had a sluggish start to the year which is rand negative. Additionally the dollar has remained solid this week while markets digested last weeks FOMC and strong non-farm payroll prints which also does not bode well for the vulnerable rand. For now, I remain on the fence as long as the pair sits in this big wedge illustrated by the blue trend lines. Technically the RSI still has room to move higher before entering the overbought zone which is not rand supportive. A cross of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA is also on the cards which is technically a 'golden cross' and rand negative.
by Goose96
The wedge continues...The rand folded on Friday after the broad-based rise in the dollar. The rand managed to pull the pair to a low of 18.53 but this support rate held its ground. The pair still remains in the wedge pattern between the two blue trend lines and technically the higher low is not positive for the rand. I’m expecting a re-test of the 61.8% Fibo rate of 18.97 this week and a break above will allow the pair to inch back into the red resistance range between 19.15 and 19.28. For now, it’s too early to determine whether the pair is going to break to the top or bottom side of the current wedge but I’m leaning towards a break to the downside based on the expectations that the Fed will cut rates in around March.
by Goose96