USDZAR trade ideas
Tricky btu definite buy for USD/ZARA clear bullish move is in set for USD/ZAR in order to fill that massive imbalance on the left side. Wanting to enter off strong demand zone where we can see price react off of and consolidate in the past.
Watch out for the liquidity depicted by the arrow. Only enter if there is a slow move to entry otherwise price may want to first capture that liquidity.
Hope everyone is having a great new years!
POSSIBLE LONG TERM BEAR MARKET ON USDZAR AFTER "SH" AND "BMS"A possible sellers inducement triggering more sellers that trade breakouts/ early sellers , so my view is we wait until the fake out plays out to the upside inducing more buyers and we wait for a better entry but after a confirmation of a SHORT on a LTF for a long term bear market... maybe ZAR might melt down to a 15.00000 W1 TMF
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-hourly chartThe pair did move higher as expected, the fun would be if one managed to get long of course. Now we are at the higher end again, and it feels we may start toppling a bit coupled with stable GOLD likely to settle where it currently is now.
Stochastic is negative as well and helps to idea.
Strategy SELL @ 18.7250-18.7800 and place SL above 18.8950. Profit order @ 18.4950.
USDZAR-BUY strategy 4-hourly The pair has moved sharp upwards again, and this on the basis of stronger USD and also weaker GOLD price. On my last update I was neutral, as there is no clarity, and same as now, it is not picture clear. However, there may be more upside potential due to the fact we have broken triangle resistance. I am not keen personally to venture this moment anything, and my ideas are more suggestive.
Strategy BUY @ 18.4750-18.5000 and place SL below 18.3500. Profit order near 18.7450.
Could 2024 be coming with Rand strength against the US Dollar?In April 2022, major institutions sold the Rand off when it was trading around R14.40 ~ R14.80 against the US Dollar. Price proceeded to print a steep rising channel capping off close to R19.92 with a shooting star and a beautiful bearish engulfing candle that closed the first week of June 2023 below R18.70. This was an indication that Rand buyers that were sitting around the R19.30 level in April 2020 were still awake.
Looking at price action after June 2023, we can see a change of character in price by way of printing a lower low and lower high, signalling potential further strengthening of the Rand against the US Dollar. This will be confirmed once the USDZAR pair starts trading below R18.00 in the coming year as we traded bearishly throughout December 2023 and closed the year below the 50 Week EMA.
Once the rate drops below R17.40, we could see the short term downward target of R16.20 being reached, with the medium to long term target sitting at R14.80 to rebalance the market after the institutional demand of the USDZAR in April 2022.
If however, R18.00 remains strong support, we could see one last push by the US Dollar Bulls above the 50 Week EMA to levels beyong R19.70 potentially pushing the exchange rate to R21.00.
Current sentiments: Bearish on the USDZAR with neutrality taking over if we trade above R18.80 in the first half of 2024, and bearish sentiments will be completely off the table once the pair trades and holds well above R19.70 as the probability of reaching R21.00 will be in play.
USDZAR-NEUTRAL 4-hourly chartThe pair has declined sharply, and we have a hammer bottom. the stochastic is negative and has more room to move lower. We are well protected @ 18.5600 resistance and likely we will attract 18.0500 short-term.
I prefer NEUTRAL stance, since selling here may not be beneficial on possible pullback.
If once likes to venture, strategy is SELL above 18.4500 and place SL above 18.5600 and profit order @ 18.0700.
USDZAR to Go BearishWith top-down analysis revealing a bearish BIAS on the USDZAR price, there are essentially more confluences confirming the bearish strength.
The price is appropriately moving in an ascending channel in this HTF DTs scenario. Price is now in an LTF corrective structure as a result of what I see as price forming impulse and corrective structures as it moves down to the lower TFs.
Consequently, I am holding off on looking for an entry until I see a breakout followed by a continuation of the corrective structure in a LTF.
USDZAR-NEUTRAL BUY 4 hourlyThe pair is near a dangerous bottom roughly @ 18.2950, and should be respected to see higher again. If we consider GOLD to remain high with a tendency to go lower, the pair will be good value to buy again. Stochastic is negative and low, but not extreme, and gives room for further declines. that is why am NEUTRAL with a BUY.
Strategy BUY @ 18.2800-18.3150 and place SL below 18.2650 (judge it carefully) and take profit near 18.5575.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4 hourlyThe pair did test 18.7400 area and fell too a low of 18.5250 area and recovered upwards.
The issue is, we are boxed-in within GANN support and resistance, ranging 18.5600 - 18.7400. The stochastic is negative, and for that reason, I prefer SELL into rally. If short, and not taken back low 18.50s I suggest to abort now. I feel we may see higher first, but this is for SELL strategy, and not to recommend a BUY for now.
Strategy SELL @ 18.6900-18.7250 and place SL above 18.7800. Profit target is near 18.3150 now (above 18.2700 T-line support area).
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4 hourly The initial idea of SELL 18.49-18.51 only encountered a low near 18.3600. We have since then climbed dramatically whilst GOLD is higher in fact. This is not usual behavior, and the break of 18.6100 area suggest we may see 18.7400 test before down.
Strategy SELL @ 18.6800-18.7100 and place SL above 18.7700. The profit order now placing @ 18.5250.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4 hourlyThe pair has risen as expected, albeit my earlier bail out at 18.4250 area. The objective was met though.
For now, would be SELL side again, but will respect GANN resistance 18.6000 area.
Strategy SELL @ 18.4750-18.5200 and place SL above 18.6100. Profit order @ 18.2650.