USDZAR pre-SARBThe rand has been volatile recently due to the swings in the global interest rate expectations. The SARB will most likely act in lock step with the Fed this week which will see the SARB keep the SA repo rate at 8.25%. The rand will be at the mercy of global investor sentiment regardless of how hawkish the SARB will be, but a hawkish tone is expected to support the rand.
The 4H time frame is suggestive of a lack of upside momentum for the pair which could allow the rand to pull the pair into the support range between the 200-day MA at 18.59 and 18.43. A failed break below this range will leave the rand facing an intimidating uptrend as we head into the closing stages of the year.
The daily RSI is suggestive of room for further upside movement for the pair and a break above the 50-day MA at 18.90 and a re-test of the red resistance range around 19.12 is my projected move for the rand. A break below 18.43 will however allow the rand to pull the pair back towards 18.12 which will invalidate this idea.
