Trip to the 19.30'sIt wasn’t smooth sailing for the rand last week after the local unit depreciated by roughly 3.00%. The USDZAR pair is forming a 5-wave impulse pattern which could see the rand slide further towards the 19.30’s. The MACD is holding a buy signal and the RSI still has room to move higher before hitting overbought zones. A break below 18.66 will however invalidate the idea.
USDZAR trade ideas
USDZAR
The South African rand was weaker in early trade on Thursday, ahead of U.S. jobless claims data that could give hints at future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
At 0608 GMT, the rand traded at 18.3800 against the dollar , around 0.33% weaker than its previous close.
The dollar last traded at 102.080 - around 0.06% stronger - against a basket of global currencies.
"(The dollar/rand exchange rate) is strongly biased downwards this morning but has struggled to gain any momentum and the multi-week trend still looks like it is over," said Rand Merchant Bank analysts in a research note.
USDZAR ShortHi traders, as you can see this pair is most likely to change trend to the downwards. We are expecting a 3rd touch at the filled zone with liquidity grab. Make sure to to do a top down analysis for a better view and understanding of how price behaved and likely to playout. What do you think?
USDZAR BEARISH ORDER FLOWGood day traders on USDZAR as you can see the market broke the sellside liquidity and gave us a bullish market shift, then market shot up into our OB+GZ so our reason of entry here is that we think the market might tank down because it tapped into our OB+GZ and it is in premium ontop of that the market gave a BMS and did not come down to respect the FVG inside our range so that is were we will looking for price to return to
ENTRY:18.96119
SL:19.01422
TP1:18.78666
TP2:18.66116
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4-hourly chartThe pair held the previously stated 18.4350 support area, and the support of the channel lies @ 18.5400.
The stochastic is high, and RSI is overbought, but both are POS still. I feel the conditions may lead to higher levels, and the strategy suggested is as follows
Strategy SELL @ 18.85-18.9000 area and place financial stop. Profit order near channel support @ 18.5400 or at the time with latest support level.
Note: am away for 10 days and will not update often due to travel.
The USDZAR Now in Intermediate DeclineThe USDZAR pair fell out of a parallel channel, bounced off the Pitchfork and backtested the channel. On its way down, it broke out of the major Pitchfork and also went below 20 June 2023 price, defining a cycle failure.
Currently we see price recovering the 200 day moving average at a point where a median line intersects a pink support trendline, this is within time window for a half cycle bottom in this pair, we now watch how price reacts with the mid-line while being aware that price action is within a falling wedge whose resistance runs parallel to the resistance of the Pitchfork.
If we overcome the mid-line we next look at the next line especially where it intersects the major Pitchfork. Where we get a strong reaction followed by a swing high will give an indication of a cycle high with expectation for price to go lower.
RARE FORMATION ON USDZARI call this a gem, I have not traded this pair in a year, but today I am doing some backtesting and preparing for the new week and I found this beauty so I decided to give her to everyone.. lol no hard feelings, we have over 100 pips here if you are a swing trader..
share comments if you see the same beauty.
USDZAR- NEUTRAL SELL strategy 4 HourlyWe managed to reached the price objective and we carefully have to see whether we break below 18.3800 (DC Mid) convincingly. If we do, we will attempt 18.1300 area again. For now am neutral, but would look at SELL opportunity only far higher since we are in negative mode.
USDZARAfrican Sovereigns: Deeper, Co-ordinated Debt Relief Needed to Strengthen Credit Profiles
Distressed African countries risk having weaker credit profiles for longer unless there are better co-ordinated debt restructurings. Any improvements need to overcome burden-sharing among more diverse creditor groups.
USDZAR-SELL strategy 4 HourlyIt starts looking boring saying SELL and SELL, but the issue is with these type of markets, they always go more than it should either way.
The channel is clear having resistance and support, and now we got confirmation for SELL stochastic negative and RSI as well. AO is SELL mode too.
Strategy SELL current @ 18.6500-18.70 and take profit @ 18.4350, and when broken through 18.4200 area we may see 18.2700 again. Stop-loss is a financial one, if one wishes to apply (and one always should).
USDZAR- SELL strategy 4 hourlyI have underestimated the strength of the move, even though direction was fine. the pair is usually quite aggressive either direction, and that is why best to sit back until confirmation appears.
When we consider GANN resistance, and the high reached, we may see that there is a likely hood for a return back towards 18.2000 short-term. the stochastic is negative and the RSI starting to become.
Strategy SELL @ 18.45-18.55 (yes wide range and we have no choice this time) and take profit @ 18.2350 for now. The stop-loss suggesting a financial one that fits your budget.