NATURAL GAS looking like this might be the BUY zoneHi everyone,
Let us see if OANDA:NATGASUSD will rise in price from this zone.
USNATGAS trade ideas
XNGUSD. A possible upside rebound in the short termFundamental analysis
US natural gas prices consolidated in the short term after forecasts for higher demand and a federal report showing smaller-than-usual storage additions. This comes as producers reduced drilling earlier this year.
However, gas stocks are still more than 4.5% above normal levels. Meteorologists expect warmer-than-normal weather through Nov. 1, though demand, including exports, is now forecasted higher than previously thought.
Technical analysis
Price continues in a downtrend in the short term, however, it is approaching the 38.2% Fibonacci level (around 2.71) while the RSI is showing a bullish divergence after being in oversold sold. This could suggest an upside recovery in the near term.
16R Trade - Natural Gas LongHard to say whether NG now continues lower however the market is approaching key support and so if there is a reversal here there is a large move up to catch.
I feel like there is a 40% chance this trade is successful so it is high risk.
The trend down is also steep which is why I’m going lower risk than usual on this one.
I prefer adding to my position once a trend is established on trades like this which I am less confident on.
Natural Gas Price Drops Over 8% Since the Start of the MonthNatural Gas Price Drops Over 8% Since the Start of the Month
On 26 September, when analysing the XNG/USD natural gas price chart, we noted that:
→ Bulls might be "gathering strength" for a potential attempt to break the psychological level of 3.00.
→ If successful, this would pave the way towards the yearly high around 3.20.
Since then, the price of natural gas:
→ Broke above the 3.00 level on 27 September;
→ Reached 3.20 on 4 October, after which it reversed downward.
Bearish sentiment was driven by:
→ News that Hurricane Helen had minimal impact on natural gas processing facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast;
→ Adequate gas reserves ensuring sufficient supply;
→ Weather forecasts indicating short-term gas demand at the end of September.
Technical analysis of the XNG/USD chart shows the upward channel (marked in blue) has lost relevance. It’s evident that:
→ The bounce from the median line (shown by the first arrow) was weak;
→ The attempt to re-enter the channel from its lower boundary (as shown by the second arrow) led to a test of the 3.00 psychological level, which acted as resistance.
There are no signs yet of bulls trying to regain control on the XNG/USD chart. If the supply and demand balance remains unchanged, the natural gas price may continue its decline within the red downward channel, possibly towards its lower boundary, reinforced by the former resistance at 2.65.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Natural Gas still coiling! breakdown or breakout?Hello Traders
In This Chart NATGAS HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today NATGAS analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (NATGAS market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NATGAS Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
NGAS (Henry Hub) - NO LOSS Trade OpportunityFrom the highest of 10 mark till the lowest of 1.5.. at the moment Natural Gas is giving the golden opportunity to buy and accumulate for apparently 1-2 months of holding with a good reward of 1:4+.
This is literally a NO LOSS Trade but for those who can wait patiently for a golden reward
Good Luck!
Natural gas may pivot higherNatural gas had corrected during the first part of the week.
Commodity markets still remain stay in play amid geopolitical escalation in the Middle East and declining stockpiles: for example, we observe a consistent decline of Natural Gas in Henry Hub for several weeks in a row.
From a technical standpoint, Natural gas had bounced back from the intermediate-term resistance area of $3 per contract, but the market structure is still bullish, as there haven't been three full bearish candlesticks yet, and today we might observe a pullback as shown at the chart.
Manage risks and trade well!
Wait for it!!! Natural Gas may have more downside.The double bottom playing out in natural gas is a classic bullish reversal pattern. This pattern typically signals a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend, characterized by two distinct lows at approximately the same level, separated by a peak (the "W" shape). Here's an in-depth analysis of the recent move and potential future trends for natural gas:
Recent Move
1. Formation of the Double Bottom:
- First Bottom: Natural gas prices hit a low, rebounded, and then fell again to form the second bottom.
- Second Bottom: The second low was formed at a similar level to the first, confirming the double bottom pattern.
- Neckline Breakout: The price then broke above the peak of the "W" (the neckline), signaling a potential bullish reversal.
2. Pullback to the Neckline:
- After breaking the neckline, prices often pull back to retest this level. This pullback is typically seen as a confirmation of the breakout.
- In this case, the pullback is expected to be around $2.30 to $2.40, aligning with the peak of the "W".
Future Projections (October 8th, 2024 to Year-End)
1. Short-Term Outlook:
- Support Levels: The $2.30 to $2.40 range will act as a critical support zone. If prices hold above this level, it reinforces the bullish sentiment.
- Volume Analysis: Increased trading volume during the breakout and subsequent pullback would further validate the pattern.
2. Medium to Long-Term Outlook:
- Bullish Continuation: If the support at the neckline holds, natural gas prices could see a continuation of the uptrend. Key resistance levels to watch would be around $2.60 and $2.80. Natural gas could easily rally into the 3’s if these resistance levels are broken.
- Market Sentiment: Factors such as seasonal demand, geopolitical events, and supply constraints will play a significant role. Historically, natural gas prices tend to rise during the colder months due to increased heating demand.
3. Potential Risks:
- False Breakouts: There's always a risk of false breakouts where prices fail to sustain above the neckline and fall back into the previous range.
- External Factors: Unexpected changes in weather patterns, regulatory shifts, or significant changes in production levels could impact prices.
Conclusion
The double bottom pattern in natural gas suggests a bullish outlook, especially if the prices hold above the $2.30 to $2.40 support zone. Monitoring volume and external market factors will be crucial in confirming this trend. If the bullish momentum continues, we could see natural gas prices testing higher resistance levels and rallying into the $3 to 4 range towards the end of the year.
Natural gas is on the moveEnergy markets are on the move: volume in the largest oil ETF of the United States (USO) rose to a new peak in 2022. CME Group took a similar action for WTI Crude oil futures. The situation was fueled by geopolitical escalation in the Middle East.
Natural gas has developed a strong momentum, getting back to $3, and if it holds this level, it will complete the “cup-and-handle” pattern, which points to the continuation to the upside, up to $4 area and above.
The current price is also above the 20, 50, and 200 moving averages, indicating a “price discovery” regime. If XNGUSD doesn’t correct itself, it may develop another sharp spike upward.
Really as Simple as it seems- Very simple case for NG bulls on a long (2-5 year) basis. Macro trend simplified with nothing more than trendlines
- Shorter term bear play will be described in another post
- NG appears to be making a Jesse Livermore accumulation megaphone pattern as it did in the 90s/2000s
1) red long term downtrend line broken to the upside and retested beautifully.
2) weekly chart shows higher highs and higher lows beginning to develop on a longer time frame after the nasty drop from 2021 highs to lows which bottomed in the 2$ vicinity.
3) Shorter term black trendline still providing resistance upon the 3rd test. Confirmation of a breakout here is yet to be seen (this was where the short play revolves around)
4) major resistance around the upper red horizontal line at roughly 3.19. Lesser resistance just below red horizontal line.
Conclusion: NG has been and continues to be extremely cheap historically.
As NG resolves these resistance zones it appears a 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 megaphone pattern will generate as NG eventually reaches the 12-14$ area within the next few years.
Natural Gas expected to tag lower trendline and upper trendline of megaphone pattern accordingly with seasonality and resistance levels along the way.
Volatility is expected as the cylinder widens and price action becomes more erratic, though long term, the trend is bullish, but the Widowmaker is not for the faint of heart. Scaling in, and buying near lower trendline tags is likely most likely to increase probability of maximum profit.
NatGas Breakout above trendline on DailyBroke the resistance trendline on the daily chart after closing under yesterday. Either a false breakout, or a legit one. Futures markets make me lean towards a legit breakout coming into winter seasonality, as well as the lower injection print this week, but this is my subjective opinion. I would look for next level of $2.80
NATGAS Double Bottom Playing Out…Expect a ConsolidationThe double-bottom pattern in natural gas is a classic bullish reversal pattern, indicating a potential shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. This pattern forms when the price hits a low, rebounds, drops back to a similar low, and then rises again. The key elements to watch are the two distinct lows (forming the "W" shape) and the breakout above the neckline, which is the resistance level connecting the peaks between the two bottoms.
### Current Analysis
1. **Formation**: The double-bottom pattern in natural gas has recently completed, with the price breaking above the neckline.
2. **Volume**: There has been an increase in trading volume, which often confirms the validity of the breakout.
3. **Resistance and Support**: The neckline, previously a resistance level, now acts as a support level. The next significant resistance level is around $3.00 per MMBtu.
### Price Direction Forecast
Given the bullish breakout and the supportive volume, the price of natural gas is likely to continue its upward trajectory. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that natural gas prices will remain relatively flat in the short term but are expected to rise in 2025 due to increasing demand and stable supply. Therefore, in the near term, we might see some consolidation around the current levels, but the overall trend appears bullish.
Natgas - Pending RSI Failure SwingThis is an idea of what to look out for if natgas continues to rally into overbought RSI territory and tops out as it did in May and June of 2024 (current year). Look out for overbought RSI divergence followed by a failure swing as shown and outlined in further detail in the idea linked below, probably confirmed by MACD divergence as well. Look out for an approximately 40-day duration of top formation once RSI enters overbought territory, plus or minus 20 days. Be prepared for a max draw down of 2.14% if you short the close of the day the failure swing is confirmed. The previous gain was 29.16%. Due to the high draw down %, it may make sense to short a QG micro which is 1/4 of an NG contract, possibly adding more on the way down at your discretion. The trade entry may happen later this year, approximately mid November.
Also something to watch out for is a much sharper rise with a much shorter RSI failure swing pattern as was formed at the start of the year 2024 (current year), also shown on the chart. The drawdown was much smaller and the target much greater (50% gain) but the short duration made the failure swing more suspect. It’s better if more than just 5 days form the top and a deeper valley is formed.
This is all very hypothetical, but these are the types of swing trades I watch for and it’s good for me, if no one else, to note these potential trades as they approach. Please feel free to ask questions.
Previous failure swing idea with additional explanation:
NATGAS BUY LONGChart Analysis:
Structure: The chart displays a descending trendline that has been acting as resistance for a considerable period. Recently, the price has broken above this trendline, which suggests a potential shift from a bearish to a bullish trend. Additionally, there is an ascending trendline forming the base of an emerging wedge pattern, indicating increased buying pressure as the price is squeezed higher.
Fibonacci Levels: The chart shows that the price recently retraced to a support area, likely near key Fibonacci retracement levels (0.5 or 0.618). This area seems to have provided a strong base for the price, which is now showing signs of moving higher.
Two Scenarios: The chart suggests two possible bullish scenarios, indicated by the green zones. The first target is around 2.550-2.750 USD, and the second, more ambitious target, is around 2.800 USD. These levels align with potential resistance points where the price might encounter selling pressure.
Trade Setup:
Entry Point: The chart suggests entering a long position around the current price level, after the breakout of the descending trendline, which signals the end of the bearish trend and the beginning of a bullish phase.
Target Price: The trade aims for two potential target areas. The first target is in the vicinity of 2.550-2.750 USD, where traders might consider taking partial profits. The second target is around 2.800 USD, which is a more extended move based on the projected continuation of the bullish trend.
Stop Loss: The stop loss is strategically placed just below 2.079 USD, in the red zone. This is slightly below the recent low and the ascending trendline, providing a buffer against a false breakout and minimizing potential losses if the trade does not go as planned.
Conclusion:
This chart for NATGAS suggests a bullish outlook following the breakout from a long-term descending trendline. The setup is reinforced by the formation of a wedge pattern and the supportive Fibonacci retracement levels. The proposed trade aims to capture the upward momentum with clearly defined targets and a well-placed stop loss to manage risk effectively.
XNGUSD Spot Natural Gas to Reverse SHORTXNGUSD ( Spot Natural Gas ) on the 15 minute chart shows that it has risen to a supply and
resistance zone while the dual time from RSI indicator shows a bearish divergence in the
faster green RSI line. The predictive algo of Luxalgo for the regression line forecasts price
action to be downside. These are enough analytical aspects for me to take short positions on
equities and forex markets for natural gas correcting downside.
