Hellena | Oil (4H): SHORT to support area of 56,339.Colleagues, I was watching the price and was expecting a pattern for a reversal downtrend. I still expect a downward movement and believe that the price is in a combined correction.
This means that wave “B” has been formed and I expect wave “C” to reach at least the 56,339 area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
USOIL trade ideas
WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) Bullish Pullback Setup – Targeting $66.70 Entry Point: Around $62.30 - $62.26
Stop Loss: Set below the entry zone at $61.65, with a potential lower buffer at $60.90
Target Zone (EA TARGET POINT): Between $66.62 and $67.00
A projected gain of 4.22 points (~6.77%)
📈 Price Action & Indicators:
The price had a strong bullish run recently and is now consolidating or pulling back slightly.
The red and blue moving averages (likely short-term and medium-term MAs) show a bullish crossover and trend.
There's a potential bullish setup if the price pulls back to the entry zone and finds support.
The blue curved arrow indicates a projected bounce from the $62.30 support region back up toward the $66.70 target.
🛠️ Strategy Implied:
Wait for pullback to the entry zone (~$62.30).
Enter long at or around that level.
Set Stop Loss at $61.65 to limit downside risk.
Take Profit at $66.70 for a solid risk-reward ratio.
⚠️ Risks:
If support at $62.30 fails, price may head toward $61.65 or lower.
Market volatility (especially with crude oil) can invalidate setups quickly.
Economic events (e.g., U.S. inventory reports, OPEC news) can disrupt technical patterns.
WTI OIL 1H Channel Up make or break Targets.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Up on the 1H time-frame that is supported by the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line). As long as this holds, we expect another +2.50% Bullish Leg (at least), which gives a Target of $63.55.
If the price breaks below the 1H MA200 though, we will take this small loss on the long and go short instead, targeting Support 1 at $60.60.
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USOIL Weekly Analysis – Major Breakdown and Retest in PlayAfter several months of holding firm, USOIL has finally broken below its key support zone around $67–$70, which had acted as a floor since mid-2021 . This is a significant technical development, and the current price action is showing a classic bearish retest of that broken structure.
Technical Breakdown:
Support Broken:
The $67–$70 zone was tested multiple times over the past 2 years. Price has now cleanly broken through it and is struggling to reclaim it.
Retest in Progress:
Price is currently hovering around $62.36 and failing to push back above the broken support. This retest is textbook and could confirm further downside.
Market Structure:
Lower highs and lower lows dominate the weekly chart = clear bearish trend.
Bearish Targets:
Target 1: $53.50 – Previous minor demand zone from 2021.
Target 2: $41.50 – Strong historical support and potential major bounce area.
Invalidation Zone:
If price closes above $70 on the weekly chart, the breakdown would be invalidated and we’ll reconsider our bias.
Confluence:
Broken multi-year support
Bearish retest on weekly timeframe
Clear downside liquidity below
Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Setup: Short on confirmation of rejection below $67
Timeframe: Weekly / Daily
This is a high-probability setup if the rejection continues. Look for further bearish price action on the daily or 4H chart for refined entries. As always, manage risk carefully .
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USOILUSOIL is in a correction phase. If the price can stay above 61.5, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying in the red zone.
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WTI Crude Oil Price Targets Fresh GainsWTI Crude Oil Price Targets Fresh Gains
WTI Crude oil prices are gaining bullish momentum and might even test $63.50.
Important Takeaways for WTI Crude Oil Price Analysis Today
- WTI Crude climbed above the $60.90 and $61.50 resistance levels.
- There is a key rising channel forming with support at $61.30 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price started a fresh upward move from $60.10 against the US Dollar. The price gained bullish momentum after it broke the $60.90 resistance.
The bulls pushed the price above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $63.45 swing high to the $60.08 low. The price even climbed above the 50-hour simple moving average.
It tested the $62.15 resistance zone and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $63.45 swing high to the $60.08 low. There is now a key rising channel forming with support at $61.30.
The RSI is now near the 50 level and the price could aim for more gains. If the price climbs higher again, it could face resistance near $62.15. The next major resistance is near the $62.65 level. Any more gains might send the price toward the $63.45 level or even $65.00.
Conversely, the price might correct gains and test the $61.30 support level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near the $60.90 zone, below which the price could test the $60.10 zone.
If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $58.50. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $55.50 support zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Mirror pattern calls for a sell.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.222, MACD = -0.370, ADX = 25.154) as the price is just under the 1D MA50, where it got rejected last Tuesday. In the meantime, it has the support of the 4H MA50, hence stuck inside a neutral range. This pattern is however identical to April, after which the price declined aggressively to the S1 level. Sell, TP = 56.00.
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Bullish bounce?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has bounced off the pivot, which acts as an overlap support that is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 60.07
1st Support: 57.67
1st Resistance: 64.55
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish bounce?USO/USD has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 60.39
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 57.93
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 64.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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OIL: A Bearish Setup And Geopolitical UncertaintyOIL: A Bearish Setup And Geopolitical Uncertainty
Today Oil is showing a clear bearish pattern development but it comes with a high risk from a fundamental perspective.
Technical analysis:
The price faced a strong resistance near 64 - 64.80 from where it moved down several times. The Chart is showing in a clear way the possibility of a bearish movement with targets 60.2 ; 58 and 56.
It's possible that OIl may follow this way down if we don't take the news in consideration.
Fundamental Analysis:
Yesterday OIL declined toward $61 as traders anticipate positive developments on teh next round between US-Irand Nuclear negotiations.
Earlier yesterday their lider said that the deal with the U.S was impossible.
On the other hand, On Tuesday, the US obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, even as US President Donald Trump has been pursuing a diplomatic deal with Tehran. It isn’t clear that Israeli leaders have made a final decision to carry out the strikes, CNN said, citing unnamed officials.
So all of this is not a clear situation and if something happens OIL may rise aggressively up again. But this is all related to the news now.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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Crude Oil Monday Opening Trend Analysis & Trading TipsThe real-time trading signals we provided have been profitable every day. If you don't know how to get started, you can refer to my strategies. 👉🏼👉🏼👉🏼
During the US trading session on Friday, oil prices fluctuated narrowly higher, with USOIL trading near $61.98 per barrel. After a sharp decline in the previous session, prices rebounded slightly on Friday, forming a weekly pattern of rallying followed by a pullback. The easing of global trade tensions has alleviated market concerns about the global economy and oil demand, supporting prices; however, oversupply sentiment remains a headwind.
On the daily chart, the medium-term trend is downward, with moving averages suppressing rallies. After hitting a low of 55.20, prices have oscillated between bullish and bearish sentiment, forming a bearish flag continuation pattern in its infancy. Attention should focus on whether prices can break above the flag's upper trendline—medium-term consolidation is likely to be followed by a decline to the 50 level.
In the short term (1H chart), the consolidative decline continued to test the 60 support level, where prices rebounded modestly. Moving averages still cap upside potential, keeping the short-term trend downward. While the MACD indicator has formed a bullish cross below the zero line, indicating slightly strengthened bullish momentum, prices are expected to rise briefly before encountering resistance near 63.50 and reversing lower.
Overall, next week’s trading strategy for crude oil should prioritize shorting on rallies, with a secondary focus on buying on pullbacks. Short-term resistance lies at 63.5–64.0, while support is at 60.5–60.0.
USOIL
buy@61.50-62.00
tp:63.00-63.50
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WTI Crude Returns to the $60 ZoneWTI crude oil has posted a drop of more than 4% in recent sessions as the market digests new announcements from OPEC+. The organization stated that current economic conditions could support growth in oil demand throughout 2025 and 2026. However, it remains firm in its decision to increase production starting in May and June, with monthly increments of 411,000 barrels per day, and has also announced another increase in July.
This stance has sparked concerns in the market about a potential short-term oversupply. If this strategy persists, selling pressure could return to WTI price action in the coming sessions.
Bearish Trend
Since January 20, a clear bearish trend has been forming, pushing the barrel’s price below the $60 mark. While a notable upward move is currently underway, it remains insufficient to break the prevailing bearish formation, which continues to be the dominant technical structure in the short term.
ADX
The ADX line was previously hovering around the 40 level, reflecting high volatility in price movements. However, it has begun to flatten, and if this continues, it could suggest a loss of directional strength, paving the way for a more neutral price behavior.
RSI
The behavior of the RSI mirrors that of the ADX. It is currently oscillating around the 50 level, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressure, and reinforcing the potential for a neutral phase in the short term.
Key Levels:
$65 – Current Resistance: Aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and acts as a key psychological level. A breakout above this level could extend the current bullish bias over the coming sessions.
$67 – Distant Resistance: Matches the 50% Fibonacci retracement and a sideways zone observed in March. Sustained moves above this area could challenge the existing bearish structure on the chart.
$60 – Crucial Support: Represents a consistent area of indecision in recent months. If the price returns to this level, the previous bearish structure could regain strength in the short term.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
USOIL A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the USOIL next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 61.87
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 61.38
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USOIL BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
USOIL SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 61.86
Target Level: 55.95
Stop Loss: 65.80
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Crude oil: 63.00 resistance & 60.00 support keyPrices are currently testing the upper resistance at $63.00 📈. These levels are suppressing the price 🔻. A decisive breakthrough above this level may trigger a more intense upward rally 🔥. Meanwhile, recent selling pressure has pushed the price down to $60.60 📉. Watch the pivot support at $60.00, the real downward target 🎯
Crude oil surplus expanded in April, and imports increased, reaching multi - month highs from some countries 🌍. If global benchmark oil prices rise in the future, purchases may be reduced 📉.
Crude oil fell first and then rose today 📊. After a deep dive to $60.9, it stabilized and started to rise 🔼. After the previous price increase and adjustment, it remains to be seen if the upward momentum will continue and break through upwards 🔍.
Overall, on the delivery day, oil prices are volatile 🔼🔽. Watch the resistance at $63.0 on the upside and the support at $60.60 - $60.0 on the downside 👀.
⚡️⚡️⚡️ USOil ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Sell@ 62.50 - 62.30
🚀 TP 61.50 - 60.60
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
Will crude oil prices continue to rise?On Wednesday, international crude oil prices surged to nearly a one-month high amid market concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East. News that Israel may strike Iranian nuclear facilities has ignited a risk premium for crude oil, while stalled progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations has also tightened supply expectations. The latest data from the Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone in the UAE showed that as of the week ending May 19, total refined product inventories at the Port of Fujairah stood at 20.562 million barrels, a 4.9% decline from the previous week. Light distillate inventories fell by 357,000 barrels to 8.277 million barrels, medium distillate inventories dropped by 467,000 barrels to 1.295 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories rose by 1.651 million barrels to 10.99 million barrels.
Crude oil experienced a pullback today, with prices oscillating lower after the opening, showing minor fluctuations. Notably, prices gradually broke to new lows, suggesting a high probability of a rapid decline. Overall, crude oil has been in a stalemate between rally and correction recently, showing a pattern of daytime declines and night-time gains, but this may shift today. In trading, consider going long on rebounds as the primary strategy and shorting at highs as a secondary approach. Monitor resistance at the $63.0-$64.0 per barrel level and support at the $61.0-$60.0 per barrel level.
Trading Strategy:
buy@60.0-61.0
TP:63.0-64.0
In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
USOIL Today's Trading StrategyThe current crude oil price is $62.5 per barrel. Recently, the crude oil price has witnessed a certain degree of decline, mainly affected by factors such as the unexpected production increase of OPEC+ and the suppression of demand by US tariffs. Since April, the international crude oil market has seen a sharp decline. First, Trump announced the launch of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which has intensified market concerns about the global economic growth outlook and will once again lead to a decline in crude oil prices.
USOIL Today's Trading Strategy:
USOIL SELL@63.5-64
SL:65
TP:61~60
USOILUSOIL (WTI Crude) Fundamentals – May 2025
1. Supply and Demand Dynamics
Global Oil Demand:
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil demand growth will slow from 990,000 barrels per day (bpd) in Q1 to around 650,000 bpd for the rest of 2025, reflecting economic headwinds and record-high efficiency gains.
The IEA’s latest report (May 2025) estimates total demand will rise by 741,000 bpd in 2025, reaching 103.9 million bpd, with emerging markets (China, India, Africa, Latin America, Middle East) driving most of the growth.
OECD demand is expected to decline, while non-OECD demand remains geographically diversified.
Global Oil Supply:
Global crude oil and liquids supply is forecast to average 104.4 million bpd in 2025, up 1.8 million bpd (+1.7%) from 2024.
Non-OPEC+ countries (U.S., Brazil, Guyana, Canada) are expected to contribute most of the supply growth, potentially resulting in a supply surplus.
OPEC+ extended its 3.7 million bpd supply cuts to the end of 2026, but voluntary cuts will be gradually phased out starting April 2025.
Supply-Demand Balance:
The EIA expects a supply surplus in 2025 as non-OPEC+ supply growth outpaces demand increases, especially with OPEC+ phasing out some cuts.
2. Inventory and Refinery Data
U.S. Inventories:
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels at the end of April, now about 6% below the five-year seasonal average.
Gasoline and distillate inventories remain below average, suggesting tightness in refined product markets.
U.S. refineries are operating at 88.6% capacity, with robust input and flat-to-lower gasoline production.
3. Geopolitical and Macro Factors
Trade Policy and Geopolitics:
Recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions and progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks have improved risk sentiment and supported oil prices.
Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and de-escalation in the Middle East have reduced risk premiums, but the market remains sensitive to any setback in negotiations.
OPEC+ Compliance:
OPEC+ compliance with production cuts was high (112%) in March 2025, tightening supply and helping prices rebound from recent lows.
4. Price Trends and Outlook
Current Prices:
WTI crude is trading around $62.80–$63.50, rebounding from recent lows but still well below early 2025 peaks.
Price volatility remains high (Brent’s 30-day realized volatility peaked at 35%), reflecting sensitivity to geopolitical headlines and inventory data.
Forecasts:
J.P. Morgan maintains a Brent forecast of $66/bbl for 2025, with expectations for prices to remain under pressure due to supply surplus, but potential for mid-$70s if trade optimism and OPEC+ discipline persist.
Futures markets price WTI at an average of $75/bbl for 2025, though this is above current spot prices.
Summary Table
Factor Current Status/Impact (May 2025)
Global Demand Growth Slowing, driven by emerging markets
Global Supply Rising, led by non-OPEC+ (US, Brazil, Guyana)
OPEC+ Policy Extended cuts, gradual phase-out
US Inventories Below 5-year average, supporting prices
Geopolitical Risk Lower, but market remains headline-sensitive
WTI Price Range $62.80–$63.50 (recent), futures avg $75/bbl
Volatility High, driven by macro and geopolitical uncertainty
Conclusion
USOIL fundamentals for May 2025 reflect a market balancing slower demand growth, robust non-OPEC+ supply, and cautious optimism on geopolitics. Ongoing OPEC+ discipline and below-average inventories provide some support, but the risk of a supply surplus and persistent volatility keep prices capped. Watch for trade policy shifts, OPEC+ compliance, and inventory trends as key catalysts for the month.
Crude Oil (WTI/USD) Short SetupInternational oil prices have been supported by the temporary easing of trade tensions and buying sentiment attracted by a double bottom. However, the upside for oil prices remains limited, mainly due to the impact of Trump's uncertain tariff policies on the economy and the OPEC+ strategy of maintaining production increases. In the forward view, attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran Nuclear Agreement and Russia-Ukraine negotiations. If the agreements are reached, pressure on the oil supply side will continue to increase. During the summer oil consumption peak season, the incremental oil demand in major consuming countries may be affected by factors such as the bleak prospects of economic recovery and the substitution of new energy, keeping oil prices under pressure. On the daily chart, crude oil closed with a small bullish candle, with the high price breaking above the previous high and the low price not breaking below the previous low, forming an breakout pattern. Crude oil has shown upward momentum after consecutive oscillations, and key attention should be paid to whether the resistance level at 63.6 is broken.
Trading Strategy:
sell@62.5-63.0
TP:61.0-61.5
In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
Crude Oil Analysis 16-May-2025Crude oil analysis and what are the possible scenarios we could see.
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WTI Crude Oil awaits inventoriesPrice Movement: WTI Crude trades around $62.70 per barrel, marking a fourth straight session of gains.
Main Bullish Driver: Geopolitical tensions — reports suggest Israel may strike Iran’s nuclear sites, sparking fears of supply disruption from Iran (OPEC’s 3rd largest producer).
Risk of Iran retaliating by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and UAE.
Limiting Factor: Rising U.S. crude supply
API data shows a 2.49 million barrel build in U.S. crude stocks, defying expectations of a draw.
Traders await confirmation from EIA stockpile data later today.
Conclusion:
Bullish momentum is currently driven by Middle East tension, but gains may be capped if U.S. inventory builds continue. Traders should watch for EIA data release and further geopolitical developments.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
WTI Crude Slips as Inventory Build Fuels Bearish MomentumWest Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged lower overnight, extending its recent pullback following the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report for the week ending May 9. The data revealed an unexpected build of 3.45 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories, contrasting sharply with the prior week's 2.03 million-barrel draw and defying market expectations of a 1 million-barrel decline.
This surprise uptick in stockpiles signaled softening demand, compounding existing bearish sentiment and sparking a fresh wave of selling. WTI has since declined approximately 2% from the May 13 high of $63.68, suggesting growing downside pressure.
Technically, the price action appears poised to retest the key intermediate support at $60.00, a psychologically significant level. A decisive break below this area could expose the next major support at $55.12, a pivotal zone that aligns with the prevailing 7th March 2022 long-term downtrend. A breach of this support zone would likely confirm a broader bearish reversal, marking a critical milestone for oil markets.
On the contrary, oil prices may consolidate around the $60.00–$61.50 range before moving higher. If buying interest increases, prices could rise toward the key $63.71–$65.70 cluster zone. A decisive break above $66.00 could further interest near-term gains and short to medium term uptrend.
Traders will be closely watching upcoming macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments for further cues, with sentiment likely to remain fragile in the near term.