Oil Market Watch: Corrective Patterns, Geopolitical Triggers So far, there have been no deviations from the expected scenario. The price appears to be forming a corrective pattern around a critical trendline. Last week, we anticipated movement under the "red scenario," but the "black scenario" now seems more likely. However, post-Iran news developments might still push us toward the red path.
The delayed ultimatum in Iran negotiations and optimistic comments about progress could trigger a downward move. Next, either breakthroughs with Russia or a continued S&P 500 decline (dragging oil lower) will shape the trajectory. News serves as context for reflection, not direct trading cues.
USOIL trade ideas
USOIL MARKERT ANALYSIS AND PRICE PREDICTIONUSOIL, is currently consolidating at the over sold position, the decision will favor the Bulls, The Bulls will drive the price up to the Bearish Institutional Renegotiation Zone at 79% Premium price of 69.15. There USOIL will consolidate again and drop down in price as the Bear will take over again. Lets go long with them. Entry is now,
Take profit and Stop loss Are clearly Stated on the chat.
GOOD LUCK GUYS!
USOIL BULLISH BREAKOUT|LONG|
✅CRUDE OIL is going up now
And the price made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 63.00$ which is now
A support so we are bullish biased
And we will be expecting a
Bullish continuation until
Oil hits the horizontal
Resistance above around 65.61$
LONG🚀
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Oil - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermH4 - Strong bearish move.
No opposite signs.
Currently it looks like a pullback is happening.
Expecting bearish continuation until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold.
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WTI crude oil Wave Analysis – 17 April 2025
- WTI crude oil reversed from key support level 55,00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 65.00
WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the key support level 55,00 standing close to the lower daily and the weekly Bollinger Bands.
The upward reversal from this support level created the weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern long-legged Doji which stopped the previous impulse waves 5 and (3).
Given the strength of the support level 55,00, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 65.00 (former multiyear support level, acting as the resistance after it was broken earlier).
WTI CRUDE OIL: Channel Down bottomed. Buy opportunity.WTI Crude Oil is heavily bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.039, MACD = -2.310, ADX = 38.046) as it is trading inside a Channel Down for more than 1 year. Last week's low has made a technical LL at the bottom of the pattern and the current consolidation indicates that this may be an attempt to initiate the new bullish wave. The 1D RSI recovered from being oversold previously and this potentially hints to a rebound over the 1D MA200. The last bullish wave crossed above the 0.618 Fibonacci marginally. Trade: long, TP = 71.00.
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Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reveres to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 65.90
1st Support: 54.96
1st Resistance: 71.31
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.USOIL NEW (M30) ANALYSIS UPDATES
**USOIL M30 Trading Idea (April 16, 2025)**
**Setup Type:** Short (Sell) Setup
**Market Outlook:**
The price is currently trading around **61.76**. Based on the structure and expected movement, the chart indicates a potential bearish reversal after a short-term rally.
**Planned Strategy:**
- **Entry Point:** Around **62.28 - 62.47**
Price is expected to rise into this resistance zone. This area can be used to enter short positions.
- **Target Point:** Around **60.25 - 60.02**
This is the projected support zone where the price may find buying interest again, hence ideal for profit-taking.
**Trade Idea:**
Wait for the price to rise into the resistance zone (entry area). Look for rejection signals or bearish candlestick patterns (like a bearish engulfing, pin bar, or double top) to confirm the short entry. If confirmation appears, enter a **sell position** targeting the lower blue zone as the take-profit area.
**Key Levels:**
- **Resistance Zone (Entry Area):** 62.28 – 62.47
- **Support Zone (Target Area):** 60.25 – 60.02
**Risk Management Tip:**
Place stop-loss just above 62.50 to protect against a breakout above resistance.
WTI Crude Oil Bearish Reversal Setup – Short from Resistance ZonEntry Point: 62.66 USD
Stop Loss: 65.26 USD
Target Point (Take Profit): 55.09 USD
Indicators:
EMA 200 (blue): 60.92 USD — long-term trend indicator
EMA 30 (red): 60.75 USD — short-term trend indicator
Analysis:
1. Bearish Setup:
The price is approaching a key resistance zone marked by the purple shaded area near 62.66.
The strategy is to short from this level, anticipating a drop to the 55.09 target area.
2. Risk/Reward:
Risk (SL - Entry): 65.26 - 62.66 = 2.60 USD
Reward (Entry - TP): 62.66 - 55.09 = 7.57 USD
Risk-to-reward ratio: ~1:2.9, which is favorable.
3. Support/Resistance Confirmation:
Multiple touches at the resistance zone (or
USOIL Today's strategyWith the combination of oversupply, weak demand, technical factors, and geopolitical uncertainties, there is a high probability of a short-term decline in USOIL prices. Investors should closely monitor the dynamic changes.
USOIL
sell@61.5-62
tp:60.5-60
I hope this strategy will be helpful to you.
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Oil slumps as demand outlook dims and supply risesMacro:
- Oil prices stay weak as trade war fears weigh on global growth and energy demand.
- The IEA cut its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to just 730k bpd, the slowest pace in five years, down from 1.03 mln.
- Meanwhile, OPEC+ output is rising, with Saudi Arabia set to boost exports to China in May and Russia maintaining steady production, fueling oversupply concerns.
Technical:
- USOIL is in a clear downtrend fueled by lower highs and lows. The price is below both EMAs, indicating persistent downward momentum.
- If USOIL closes above the resistance at 63.30, the price may retest the following resistance at 65.80.
- On the contrary, remaining below 68.30 may pave the way to retest the support at 57.25 and 53.85, respectively.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
USOIL: Tech Clues for Next - Week MovesOn Friday, the crude oil market showed a slight rebound, and the daily line finally closed as a small positive line. From the perspective of the weekly line, a positive line doji pattern was formed. This series of price movements indicates that the price of crude oil seems to have shown a short - term stabilization signal. However, when looking at the overall market trend, the bearish forces still dominate.
In terms of technical analysis, on the 1 - hour chart, a golden cross has occurred, breaking through the resistance and leading to an upward movement. On the 2 - hour and 3 - hour charts, the price is supported by the MA38 moving average and is moving upward. Additionally, on the 4 - hour chart, a golden cross is about to form.
Based on this, in terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to adopt an approach that mainly focuses on shorting with occasional long positions as a supplement. Given the current market situation, one can first pay attention to the volatile rebound. In the short term, investors can consider taking appropriate long positions. It should be noted with particular emphasis that there is a strong resistance level in the range of 62.5 - 63.5 above. This area will pose a crucial constraint on the extent of the rebound in oil prices.
USOIL
buy@60.8-61.3
tp:62-62.5
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Bullish bounce?USO/USD has bounced off the support level which is an overlap support and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 60.95
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 60.01
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 63.27
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Strategic Analysis of Crude OilCurrently, in the daily trend of crude oil, it is temporarily maintaining a range-bound consolidation at a low level. After consecutive periods of oscillation, there are signs that the technical pattern is gradually being repaired. In terms of the large-scale cycle trend, it is likely that crude oil will still have some rebounds.
The short-term support below is around the level of 60.10. It is advisable to mainly go long during pullbacks and go short during rebounds as a supplement.
Oil trading strategy:
buy @ 60.30-60.50
sl 59.5
tp 61.20-61.40
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Crude Oil Holds Rebound Above $55Crude oil's sharp rebound from the $55 support—aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2022 uptrend—faced immediate resistance at the long-standing support-turned-resistance zone around $63.80, established in 2021.
A decisive move above $63.80 may clear the way for further gains toward $66, $68, $69.60, and ultimately $73. On the downside, a drop below $58 would bring $55 back into focus.
A clean break below that level could trigger further downside toward $49 per barrel, which aligns with the lower boundary of crude oil's long-term uptrend.
With global powers competing for oil, key events this week include:
🔹 OPEC report amid tariffs and efforts to regain market share
🔹 US–China trade talks
🔹 Chinese GDP, IP, Retail Sales (Wed)
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
USOIL Today's strategyCurrently, USOIL is in a stage of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Fundamentally, it is being pulled in two directions by geopolitical risks and weak demand, while technically, it shows a pattern of oscillating and converging. It is recommended to focus on range trading, pay close attention to the breakthrough situation of the resistance at $62 and the support at $57, and adjust the position flexibly.
USOIL
sell@62-63
tp:60-59
I hope this strategy will be helpful to you.
When you find yourself in a difficult situation and at a loss in trading, don't face it alone. Please get in touch with me. I'm always ready to fight side by side with you, avoid risks, and embark on a new journey towards stable profits.
oil and gold prices are divergingsince 2022, the price of oil and gold
have been diverging but they mostly
will shadow each other. Commodities
reflect the inflation of the money supply.
This is the simple reason why they move
together.
they also diverged in 2018 but then
realigned. this is a good
time to buy oil companies.