USOIL-LONG--severel times attemted to break the green channel's bottom side and failed
--price seems to go higher and push the upper side of green channel
-
USOILSPOT trade ideas
SELL PLAN – XTIUSD (15M)📉 SELL PLAN – XTIUSD (15M)
🗓️ Date: 23 July 2025
⏱️ Timeframe: 15-Minute
🔍 Context & Reasoning:
HTF Supply Zone (Red Zone)
Price entered the red HTF zone (noted as “4H T2,3,4”) and showed rejection.
This zone aligns with potential 4H Fair Value Gaps / Supply.
Sweep & Rejection
Liquidity sweep above previous highs followed by immediate bearish reaction.
Entry Confirmation
Bearish engulfing candle formed inside the HTF zone.
Price closed below 15M EMA (blue line) showing bearish momentum.
Dealing Range Valid
DR formed after rejection of the HTF zone.
Short-term bullish FVG created and violated.
Bearish FVG confirms continuation.
🎯 Entry Details:
Entry Price: ~66.12
Stop Loss: ~66.58 (Above HTF rejection zone)
Take Profit: ~65.12 (Near Weekly TP level)
🧠 Confluences:
Rejection from 4H Supply
Price closed below EMA
Clear swing failure / liquidity grab
DR confirmation on 15M
Multiple FVGs and breaker structure supporting the move
📌 Risk Management:
Risk-to-Reward: 1:2+
Risk per trade: Max 1%
If in drawdown: Use 0.5%
USOILUSOIL is in strongly bearish trend.
Potentially printing LH and LL.
No strong sign of reversal shown.
Alligator mouth is open which indicates trend will continue.
we sell at CMP.
Oil Bulls Watch $67.0 for Breakout ConfirmationFenzoFx—Crude Oil trades slightly above the bullish FVG at $66.5, showing sideways momentum on the 1-hour chart. The $65.5 support is backed by volume interest and could drive prices higher.
If this level holds, bulls may target a retest of the descending trendline. For confirmation, a close above the $67.0 resistance is needed.
Please note that a close below $66.5 would invalidate the bullish outlook.
WILL CRUDE HOLD BEARISH TREND DURING FED CHAIR POWELL SPEECH?!!?CRUDE OIL
Looking for a BEARISH continuation, of last week's Friday Fall.
Take Profit near 2.00 Extension level (64.715)
Stop Loss above the previous Hourly high candlestick (66.103)
Crude Oil -DAILY- 21.07.2025Oil prices were steady after their first weekly decline this month, as attention shifted to U.S. trade negotiations and the European Union’s push to tighten restrictions on Russian energy exports. The EU is preparing new sanctions, including a lower price cap on Russian crude, limits on fuel refined from Russian oil, banking restrictions, and bans targeting an Indian refinery and Chinese firms. Despite western sanctions, Russian oil continues flowing to China and India. Meanwhile, diesel margins in Europe remain strong, signaling tight supply.
On the technical side, the price of crude oil has failed to break below the major technical support area, which consists of the 50-day simple moving average and the 50% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level. The Stochastic oscillator has been in the neutral level since last week hinting that there is potential for the price to move to either direction in the near short term. On the other hand, the Bollinger bands have contracted rather massively showing that volatility has dried up therefore, the recent sideways movement might extend in the upcoming sessions.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this article are personal to the writer and do not reflect those of Exness
USOIL: Bullish Continuation & Long Trade
USOIL
- Classic bullish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Buy USOIL
Entry - 66.40
Stop - 65.95
Take - 67.48
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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Crude fall - short termI am anticipating crude to fall these marked levels because:
1. Strong Opening Gap which usually closes after some time
2. Liquidity levels are at the same place as the Opening Gap.
3. Oil price has to fallback a bit more and consolidate a bit more to have a healthy patterns to rise until potential 90.
WTI USOIL As of July 19, 2025, the WTI crude oil price is hovering around $67.342 to $68.83 per barrel after attempting 77.52$ per barrel on Israel Iran conflict in the middle east. As a trader Make out time to look into OPEC WORLD OIL OUTLOOK(WOO) REPORT,SPR REPORT , this woo report provide comprehensive industry forecast and strategic petroleum reserve gives insight into united state energy status.
OPEC meetings are usually held in Vienna and involves discussions and agreement on oil production quotas affecting the global crude oil supply and prices.
oil sharply rose during Israel and Iran geopolitical tension and on the supply roof rejected AT 77.52$ PER BARREL ..
Supply remains cautiously controlled because price is influenced by demand and supply system , but global economic uncertainties and trade tensions, especially involving tariffs and sanctions, continue to influence oil demand expectations.
the US Strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) is the united states emergency crude oil stockpile managed by department of energy ,it act as a buffer to protect against significant supply disruption of oil market, the SPR holds hundreds of millions of barrels of crude oil stored in the underground salt caverns along the gulf coast.it can be tapped to stabilize the market during supply crises or emergencies .
the U.S government occasionally release oil from the SPR to ease supply shortage or control fuel prices coordinated with other countries through the international energy agency if need be.the status and release are regularly monitored as they affect global oil prices and energy security
Am holding WTI OIL low buy and will continue until the break of demand floor and might add more buy if the sentiment holds buy idea.
Trading OIL AND GAS is 100% probability , No one can tell the next crisis and global energy supply disruption.
Manage your risk.
CRUDE OIL BEARISH BREAKOUT|SHORT|
✅CRUDE OIL broke the rising
Support line which is now a resistance
And the price made a retest an a pullback
So we we are bearish biased and we
Will be expecting a further
Bearish move down
SHORT🔥
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USOIL - BULLISH MOVE !Hello Traders !
The USOIL failed to create a new lower low!
The price broke the lower high (choch).
So, I expect a bullish move🚀
______________
TARGET: 68.880🎯
WTIUSD_4H_SellWest Texas Intermediate Oil Analysis
Short-term Time Frame
Elliott Wave Analysis Style
The market can only continue to decline by holding the resistance at 67.67 and moving towards the target of wave 5 at $62.
BRENT CRUDE OIL FORMED A BEARISH WEDGE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE DECLINEBRENT CRUDE OIL FORMED A BEARISH WEDGE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE DECLINE?📉
USOIL has been trading bullish within the last couple of days, supported by prospects of tighter supply and an improved demand outlook. US crude inventories dropped last week, which indicates firm demand despite the rising output.
Still, technically, oil looks bearish. It has formed a bearish wedge and is currently testing the former trendline from below. The most probable scenario is that wee see the bearish impulse towards 6,500.00 with further decline. Another option is that the rise will continue towards 6,900.00 level.
USOIL Will Go Lower! Sell!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 67.883.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 62.518 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
WTI Crude Oil ShortWTI Crude Oil – Technical & Macro Outlook
🔻 1. Supply Zone Rejection Expected (66.50–68.00 Range)
Price is currently approaching a newly established supply zone between $66.50 and $68.00, which coincides with a prior consolidation area that preceded the recent sharp sell-off. This confluence enhances the zone’s relevance, especially given its position just below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (~$69.47), derived from the swing high at $75.79 to the swing low.
📌 Outlook:
This region is expected to act as a high-probability rejection zone, likely attracting institutional sell-side interest. Price action within this zone should be monitored for signs of weakness or distribution.
📉 2. Downside Target: $61.50–$63.00 Demand Cluster
Should the supply zone hold, downside momentum could drive WTI toward the $61.50–$63.00 demand range. This area is technically significant, supported by the following factors:
Previous Change of Character (ChoCH) at $63.49, which marked the beginning of the recent bullish correction and represents a key structural pivot.
Presence of stacked demand zones below $64, increasing the likelihood of a meaningful reaction from buyers.
📌 Outlook:
This zone is expected to attract strong buying interest, making it a short-term profit-taking region for bears and a potential entry point for swing long setups, depending on confirmation.
🌍 Geopolitical Risk Landscape & Supply Dynamics
Recent geopolitical developments continue to influence crude oil pricing dynamics:
Middle East instability (e.g., Iraqi disruptions and ceasefire delays) has led to tightened supply conditions, pushing WTI above $67.
Persistent uncertainty stemming from Iranian nuclear negotiations, ongoing U.S.–China tariff risks, and regional tensions contributes to a sustained risk premium.
While OPEC+ is incrementally increasing production, this is offset by rising Saudi exports and weakening demand forecasts, which may result in inventory builds by late 2025.
Russia’s export resilience—bolstered by strategic redirection toward Asia—suggests that any anticipated supply contraction could be less severe than expected.
🛢 WTI at $62 – Technical and Macro Implications
A decline to $62 would place WTI at a major technical support level, closely watched by institutional participants. If tested, the market could react in the following ways:
Bargain hunting and value-based buying may emerge, especially if macroeconomic data aligns with a recovery narrative.
Heightened volatility is likely, driven by sensitivity to any shifts in global risk sentiment—particularly those tied to trade policy, OPEC+ production surprises, or further geopolitical escalations.
📌 Summary
Resistance: $66.50–$68.00 (pre-breakdown supply + 0.5 Fib)
Support / Target: $61.50–$63.00 (demand + structural ChoCH)
Bias: Short-term bearish toward demand, with high reactivity expected near $62
Risk Factors: Elevated geopolitical uncertainty and diverging supply dynamics across OPEC+, Russia, and the U.S.
OIL: The Chances To Drop Are Growing FurtherOIL: The Chances To Drop Are Growing Further
OIL has days in this zone. Overall it's developing as I explained earlier.
The price increased a bit more than expected but again it's in a strong structure zone and is holding strong.
I think that OIL has to create a better pattern, but overall it looks poised to drop further from this zone with targets 60 and 56
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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Retest fails on USOILOil dropped Wednesday on expectation of poor WTI stockpile data. Data confirmed bearish bias although retest of trend line proceeded. Retest has failed.
Crude Oil – Range Getting Too Long to Ignore
Oil has been stuck in a prolonged range, and a breakout in either direction is becoming increasingly likely.
The overall trend remains bullish, as there’s been no confirmed trend reversal yet.
📌 Key Scenarios:
A break to the upside would signal continuation of the bullish trend.
A break below the range could confirm a potential trend reversal.
📈📉 To avoid missing the next move, this setup can be traded with Buy Stop above the range and Sell Stop below it, allowing you to catch the momentum regardless of the direction.
⚠️ Wait for confirmation on higher timeframes if you prefer less risk
Bullish bounce off major support?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has bounced off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 65.72
1st Support: 63.78
1st Resistance: 69.42
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Bullish bounce?USO/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci reracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 64.89
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 63.08
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
Take profit: 69.97
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance.
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Crude oil extends fallsThe crude oil market has entered a fragile and uncertain phase, with prices retreating from recent highs. While WTI crude is still holding above the critical $65 mark on a closing basis, it was below this handle at the time of writing. So, the overall tone remains cautious, with a bearish tilt expected to persist in the near term.
Technical Outlook: WTI Breaks Key Support
The WTI crude chart shows a breakdown of a short-term bullish trend line, and lower lows. The price failed to reclaim the 200-day moving average and found strong resistance since. Currently, it is testing support around $65.00. A daily close below this level could trigger further bearish momentum, with the next support zones seen at $64, and then the next round handles below that. $60 per barrel could be reached if the macro backdrop doesn't improve.
Geopolitical Factors: Trump’s Tariff Threats Dismissed
Donald Trump’s threats of 100% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil sparked initial concern but were ultimately shrugged off by the market. Traders interpreted the 50-day delay in enforcement and Trump’s historical pattern of backing off such threats as signs that immediate supply disruptions were unlikely.
OPEC+ Strategy: Supply Returning to the Market
OPEC+ has announced a larger-than-expected production increase of 548,000 bpd for August, with another 550,000 bpd potentially coming in September. This roll-back of earlier voluntary cuts aims to recapture market share, especially as U.S. shale production slows. However, the added supply may cap price gains, particularly as demand is expected to ease after the peak U.S. driving season.
By Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst with FOREX.com
WTI Crude corrective pullback testing support at 6500Trade Tensions & Inflation Impact on WTI Crude
Tariff Announcement: The US has imposed reciprocal tariffs on 22 nations, including major trade partners such as the EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, after a failed trade agreement during the 90-day negotiation window.
EU Response: The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs unless a deal is reached before the August 1 deadline, raising the risk of a trade war escalation.
Trump's Warning: The US President has threatened additional tariffs if retaliatory measures are enacted, compounding uncertainty in global trade flows.
Inflation Spike: US June CPI rose to 2.7% YoY, in line with expectations. The increase was driven by higher prices of imported goods, as tariffs begin affecting consumer costs.
Fed Policy Impact: Rising inflation weakens the case for a Fed rate cut in September, dampening liquidity expectations and investor risk sentiment.
Conclusion for WTI Crude Trading
The combination of rising inflation, tariff-driven cost pressures, and a potential stall in Fed easing is bearish for WTI crude in the near term.
Additionally, intensifying trade tensions threaten global demand outlooks, which may further weigh on oil prices.
Traders should expect near-term downside pressure on WTI crude unless there is a clear de-escalation in trade rhetoric or a surprise dovish pivot from the Fed.
Bias: Cautiously Bearish on WTI Crude near term.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6830
Resistance Level 2: 6940
Resistance Level 3: 7045
Support Level 1: 6500
Support Level 2: 6435
Support Level 3: 6370
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