USOUSD trade ideas
WTI recovered insignificantly, bearish factors prevailedWest Texas Intermediate TVC:USOIL opened down to 68.94 USD/barrel as of the time this article was completed.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) warned last Thursday that global crude oil demand is cooling while output outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies ( OPEC+) continues to increase.
According to IEA data, the organization predicts non-OPEC+ crude oil production will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2025.
The fact that supply is continuously expanding while market demand is not enough to compensate is the most noticeable pressure on the oil market at the present time.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell about 15% this quarter on concerns about falling demand. The International Energy Agency said that global consumption growth in the first half of the year reached its lowest level since the epidemic. In that context, OPEC+, an organization of oil producing countries, postponed plans to relax supply restrictions, and Libya's oil output continued to decline.
About supporting factors
With the recent conflict in Libya and a series of geopolitical crises in recent years, the market is not without upside potential, although these factors have not yet had a profound enough impact on the market. common school.
Combined with the fact that the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates at its meeting next week after the labor market showed signs of slowing and traders are more optimistic that policymakers policy will cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Lower borrowing costs could support economic growth and increased energy demand.
These may provide negligible fundamental support in the near term. However, the oil market needs to pay more attention to Supply - Demand and OPEC+ factors.
Technical outlook analysis of TVC:USOIL
On the daily chart, WTI crude oil recovered but remained in a long-term downtrend noted by the price channel and pressure from EMA21.
Crude oil's fall below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level on the daily chart would open the door for a new bearish cycle with the target then at $67.25 in the short term, more so than $65.2.
On the other hand, as long as WTI crude oil remains within the price channel, the downtrend remains dominant, but maintaining price activity above the 0.236% Fibonacci level will be the factor that pushes it to recover a little further with resistance near highest at 70.9USD.
Looking at the overall picture, the trend of WTI crude oil is to decrease in price with technical levels that will be noticed again as follows.
Support: 68.74 – 67.25USD
Resistance: 70.28 – 70.90USD
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?USOUSD is falling towards the support level that is an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 67.83
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 66.26
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 70.43
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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QUICK UPDATE - Beginning of week 16-20Hey peeps... oil closed on Friday night at 68.48 and gapped down a lil bit on NY Midnight Open ... from there it has continued straight to 68 levels... I am expecting oil to reach 67 levels at first.. with all this "BAD CHINESE ECONOMIC DATA" followed by a dump to 66.3 which would play a crucial role in "direction taking".
OIL is still in a downtrend... expect to see small retracements from time time... do not forget.. we have dropped from 78 to 64.8 in less than a month...14% quite a big number.
I can still see oil achieving new lows before even starting the flip into an uptrend...
stay tuned.. I ll post an idea tomorrow after NY session... things would get clearer.
Trade safe and green!
USOIL View!!Concerns around demand have put pressure on oil prices recently. Amid worries over softening economic data out of the U.S. and a wider structural shift towards cleaner energy sources, October crude futures (CLV24) - the most active contract - have slumped nearly 10% in the past month alone.
However, the current oil slump could be an opportunity to invest. For starters, the presidential debate provided hints that oil is a critical component of both candidates' energy policies. Further, research from Stanford University indicates that oil is still the most-used energy resource worldwide, and provides more than 90% of global transportation energy. And while McKinsey forecasts that oil demand will decline by up to 50% by 2050, the firm still sees demand for oil remaining strong at least through 2030.
US-Oil will further push upside After Testing TrendlineHello Traders
In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today XTIUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XTIUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
#USOIL 1DAYUSOIL 1 Day Trade Opportunity
Buy Opportunity:
Buy Level: 66.500
Target Levels: 67.500 / 68.500 / 69.500 / 71.500
Description:
Today's analysis of USOIL (Crude Oil) suggests a promising buy opportunity. With the current price at 66.500, the market shows potential for upward movement. Consider entering a long position at this buy level.
Target Levels:- 67.500: Initial target level where short-term gains might be realized.
68.500: A subsequent target indicating continued bullish momentum.
69.500: An intermediate level that may act as a resistance point but offers a chance for profit-taking.
71.500: The final target level, which represents a more extended bullish move.
Monitor the price action closely around these target levels for potential exit points or adjustments to your trading strategy. As always, ensure to implement proper risk management techniques.
WTI USOIL POSSIBLE BULLISH SCENARIOPossible bullish scenario this week:
MONDAY TP 69.5 / Sell 69.5
Oil goes up initially in Asian markets, people buying in preparation for FED Rates. European market sells from 69.5 as news of recovery from hurricane sinks in. HNS forming.
TUESDAY TP 66.8 / Buy 66.8
66.8 reached in early american market. HNS formed. Reversal mid day american market in preparation for FED Rates.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TP 72.5 reached on release of rate.
Good news/0.50 - TP 74.3
Bad news/0.25 - sell from 4H 200MA, TP 64.5
USOIL - Bearish Trend | Going ShortBearish Indicators:
1. Dow Theory(LH & LL)
2. Bounced from the resistance
3. Bearish Trendline
USOIL: Market Is Looking Down! Sell!
Welcome to our daily USOIL prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 68.336
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
USOIL: Expecting Bearish Movement! Here is Why:
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the USOIL pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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USOIL : Why a 56.53% Probability Signals a Strong Bullish Move!The current global landscape presents several factors supporting a bullish bias for USOIL:
Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to create supply uncertainties, potentially driving prices higher.
Economic Recovery: As major economies show signs of improvement, demand for oil is expected to increase, putting upward pressure on prices.
OPEC+ Production Cuts: Recent decisions by major oil-producing countries to limit output could lead to tighter supply conditions.
Leveraging Probabilities for Strategic Positioning
I'm utilizing probabilistic analysis on my charts to get positioned into longs. Here's why this approach is valuable:
1. Risk Management: By assessing probabilities, I can better gauge potential outcomes and adjust my position sizes accordingly.
2. Identifying High-Probability Setups: Probability-based analysis helps pinpoint trade entries with higher chances of success.
3. Emotional Control: Using probabilities provides a more objective framework, reducing the impact of emotions on trading decisions.
4. Adapting to Market Conditions: Probabilistic thinking allows for flexibility in strategy as market conditions evolve.
By combining fundamental analysis with a probability-based approach to technical analysis, I aim to capitalize on the bullish potential in USOIL.
12M:
2W:
1H:
USOIL Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 68.33.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 71.84 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OIL Wait Back to Break order Box 1.5 Ratio From swing LowOIL Wait Back to Break order Box 1.5 Ratio From swing Low
It's break Red m30 order box wait back to confirm break.
Simple Textbook Oil Setups | How To Pick Swing TradesJudging Market Moves and pre-empting them relies on probability.
Although this setup is ideal/textbook it does not mean its certain.
Your job is to get good deals. This is how you do that.
Incorp risk plans and real trading plans, understand sentiment drivers, and you should have no problem.
usoillooking like more potential for sells after the break and then a clean rejection test of the rnd level.
Crude oil demand concerns in focus with key Chinese data on tapCrude oil is now up for the third day after finding strong support around the $65 area. Now near $70, could it resume lower from here?
It is important that that blue shaded area around 68.80-69.00 now holds as support if prices dip, otherwise we may see the bears step in on oil again.
From a macro point of view, demand concerns continue to linger. Unless we see some improvement in data to suggest that crude oil demand is going to be stronger, or supply growth is going to be weaker, this recovery we have seen should be taken with a pinch of salt. It is likely that prices have found support this week amid short-side profit taking and on the back of weaker US dollar, with hurricane disruptions further encouraging dip-buyers. But weakness in China’s economy is a major concern, which puts the weekend’s release of industrial data from the world’s second largest economy into focus. In the week ahead, crude oil traders will be watching the big central bank rate decisions, especially that of the Fed on Wednesday. If the FOMC’s economic projections in the dot plots point to weakness in growth, then that could trigger a fresh wave of selling.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analysts with FOREX.com
USOIL / UNDER BULLISH PRESSURE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
currently prices trading above turning level at 78.74 , overall under bullish pressure.
In order for the price to reach 71.59, it first needs to establish a period of stabilization above two critical levels: 68.74 and 69.98. These levels act as key support zones, signaling strength in the market if maintained. Once stability is confirmed above 69.98, upward momentum is expected to build, pushing the price toward 71.59. If this bullish trend continues, the price may extend further, reaching the next target at 74.24.
However, if the price fails to hold above 68.74, it indicates weakening bullish momentum, and the market may shift towards a downtrend. In this scenario, breaking the turning level at 68.74 could trigger a decline toward 65.35. A more pronounced drop could push the price even lower if this support level is breached.
TURNING LEVEL : 68.74
USOIL BUY TO SELL IDEACurrently watching for a buy opportunity on USOIL to clear out trend line liquidity before we continue downwards, need price to pull back to my point of interest before engaging buys on confirmation to 72.850
This is my personal analysis with respect to how I trade, if you’re joining me, DYOR.
Market Analysis: Crude Oil Price RecoversMarket Analysis: Crude Oil Price Recovers
Crude oil is recovering and might rise toward the $70.25 resistance zone.
Important Takeaways for Oil Prices Analysis Today
- Crude oil is recovering losses and trading above the $67.00 support.
- There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $67.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price found support near the $64.75 zone against the US Dollar. The price formed a base and started a recovery wave above $66.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The bulls were able to push the price toward the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.27 swing high to the $64.74 swing low. Besides, there was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance near $67.00.
The hourly RSI is near the 65 level, but the price is struggling near $69.00, and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.27 swing high to the $64.74 swing low.
The next resistance is near the $70.25 level. A clear move above the $70.25 could send the price toward the $71.50 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72.40 level. Conversely, the price might start a fresh decline from the $69.00 resistance.
Immediate support sits near the $68.15 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $67.00. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $66.05. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $64.75 support zone.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
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