Wti Long Price is forming a rising wedge on 15 mins , the reasonable stop loss is after it breaks the bottom of the wedge.
USOUSD trade ideas
Crude turns upCrude prices shot higher overnight following news that OPEC+ has delayed an expected production increase. Both Brent and WTI were up around 3% on the news, even though the announced delay is only for a month. This has taken front-move crude back up to an area of resistance around $71.50-72.00. If it can push above this region convincingly, and then hold it on any pullback, then this starts to improve the immediate outlook as far as the bulls are concerned. The daily MACD has started to turn up a touch, and while it remains in negative territory, this suggests an uptick in upside momentum. There has also been some relief that Iran did not take the opportunity over the weekend to launch an attack on Israel in retaliation for the Israeli attack the week before. Prices had jumped on Thursday evening after Israeli intelligence reported that Iran was planning to attack Isreal from its bases within Iraq.
UsOIL Long Buy due to lower Support Hello Traders
In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today XTIUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XTIUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
USOILUSOIL is in strong bullish trend.
As the market is consistently printing new LHs and LLs.
currently the market is retracing a bit after last LL, which is also the 50% Fib retracement level and local support as well. if the market successfully sustain this buying confluence the next leg down could go for new LL.
What you guys think of this idea?
USOIL - Key Levels for Bullish Stabilization or Bearish ReversalTechnical Outlook
The price may stabilize within the bullish zone upon a 4-hour candle close above the pivot line at 68.53, targeting 70.49 initially, followed by 71.78.
Bullish Scenario: While trading above 68.53, the price is likely to move toward 70.49 as the first bullish target, with 71.78 as the next level.
Bearish Scenario: A reversal and stabilization below 68.53 would open a move toward 67.03, with further downside potential to 65.85.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 68.53
Support Levels: 70.50, 71.78, 72.75
Resistance Levels: 67.03, 68.85, 63.51
Trend Outlook:
Bullish while the price remains above 68.53
PREVIOUS IDEA:
WTIIf the analysis aligns with the market's actual direction, and the currency pair moves in the anticipated direction (up for a buy trade or down for a sell trade), the trade will likely yield a profit. The magnitude of the profit will depend on the size of the price movement, position size, and leverage used.
Crude Oil Technical AnalysisOil is trading bullishly above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) and created a Fair Value Gap (FVG) on October 31. Technical indicators suggest that while the primary trend is bullish, oil is overpriced in the short term.
From a technical perspective, crude oil has the potential to fill the gap around $70.00 before the uptrend resumes. The FVG area provides a solid entry point for bullish positions.
The trend outlook remains bullish as long as the $69.70 support holds. That said, the next bullish target will likely be the $72.25 resistance level.
WTI Dips as Israel Avoids Targeting Iran’s Oil: What’s Next?The West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.60 during Thursday's London session. The price edged lower following reports that Israel has assured the United States it will not target Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities in its planned retaliatory attacks. This news, as reported by senior Biden administration officials and the Wall Street Journal, came after the US sought to prevent further escalation in the Middle East to avoid a potential surge in oil prices.
Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East and Oil Prices
Oil markets have been on edge due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Any potential retaliation involving Iran has been closely watched, given Iran’s role as a major oil producer in the region. Had Israel planned to target Iran’s oil infrastructure, it could have led to significant supply disruptions, pushing oil prices higher. For now, traders are breathing a sigh of relief with the promise from Israel to avoid targeting these facilities, but geopolitical tensions still remain a key factor that could influence WTI in the near future. Should tensions escalate further, WTI prices could quickly rebound on supply concerns.
OPEC and IEA Cut Global Oil Demand Forecasts
This week also brought another major development for oil markets as both the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024. The IEA now estimates global oil demand will grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), bringing total demand to 104.3 million bpd next year, which is 300,000 bpd below previous estimates.
These cuts are being driven by several factors, including the weakening global economic outlook and persistent challenges in key oil-consuming regions. In particular, China’s economic stimulus measures have failed to provide a meaningful boost to oil demand, further weighing on oil prices. This downward revision in demand growth expectations has created additional headwinds for crude oil prices, contributing to the recent decline in WTI.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Sentiment But Potential Long Retracement
From a technical standpoint, WTI is currently trading within a key demand area, suggesting that some buyers may step in to support prices. While the forecast based on seasonality points toward a bearish trend in the near term, there are some indications that a deeper long retracement could occur.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that institutional investors, also known as "smart money," are maintaining long positions, indicating potential underlying support for oil prices. This dynamic suggests that while prices may experience further pressure in the short term, a retracement to the upside could occur if demand for oil begins to pick up or if geopolitical tensions resurface with greater intensity.
Conclusion: WTI Traders Remain Cautious Amid Mixed Signals
For now, WTI remains in a delicate position, influenced by a mix of geopolitical risks, lower global demand forecasts, and technical factors. The assurance from Israel that its retaliatory strikes will avoid targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure has alleviated some immediate concerns about a spike in oil prices. However, the ongoing geopolitical situation remains fluid, and any sudden escalation could quickly reverse the current price trajectory.
At the same time, the reduced demand growth outlook from both OPEC and the IEA creates a bearish overhang for crude prices. With China’s stimulus measures failing to spark a meaningful recovery in demand, traders will be closely watching for any new developments that could shift the balance of supply and demand in the oil market.
In summary, WTI may continue to face downward pressure in the short term, but a potential long retracement remains on the table, especially if market conditions or geopolitical tensions shift in the coming days. For now, traders are likely to stay cautious, awaiting clearer signals before taking decisive positions.
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USOil - LongUSOil has given a breakout and reversed the trend, there is bullish divergence too adding confluence. Therefore, going long on USOil.
USOIL Will Move Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 69.00.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 65.47.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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USOILUSOIL price is near the resistance zone 71.48-71.92. If the price cannot break through the 71.92 level, it is expected that in the short term, there is a chance that the price will drop. Consider selling in the red zone.
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>>GooD Luck 😊
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): When the Gap Will Be Filled?
I strongly believe that a huge Monday's gap will be filled.
The confirmation that I am looking for is a breakout of a resistance
line of a horizontal range on a 4H.
4H candle close above the yellow structure will indicate
the strength of the buyers and make the market finally start rising.
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What Is a Petrodollar and How Does It Affect the Global Economy?What Is a Petrodollar and How Does It Affect the Global Economy?
The concept of petrodollars is an insightful topic to study. The petrodollar isn’t a specific currency but a financial system that reflects economic and political forces that have shaped international relations for decades. This concept is critical to understanding global trade dynamics and geopolitical strategies.
Petrodollar: Definition and Origins
A petrodollar refers to the US dollars earned by oil-exporting countries through the sale of oil to other nations. The term gained fame in the 1970s, a period marked by significant changes in the global economic landscape, particularly concerning energy resources and currency stability.
Historical Context
The petrodollar system received a significant boost in development as a result of economic necessity and geopolitical strategy during the turbulent 1970s. Key historical events, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the 1973 oil crisis, and the US–Saudi agreement, set the stage for the creation of the term ‘petrodollar’. These events emphasised the importance of securing stable economic fundamentals in the face of global uncertainty.
Bretton Woods Agreement
The Bretton Woods Agreement, established in 1944, created a system of fixed exchange rates anchored by the US dollar, which was convertible to gold. This system fostered post-war economic stability. The Bretton Woods Agreement led to the formation of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The system eventually collapsed in 1971 when President Richard M. Nixon ended the dollar’s convertibility to gold. This collapse left the global economy searching for a new anchor.
1973 Oil Crisis
In 1973, the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) declared an oil embargo against the US and other Western countries that supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War. The embargo prohibited oil exports to target countries and led to a reduction in oil production. The immediate impact was a sharp increase in oil prices. This crisis underscored the strategic importance of oil and prompted economic shifts.
US–Saudi Agreement
On 8th June 1974, Saudi Arabia entered into an agreement with the United States to accept dollars as the sole payment currency for its oil in exchange for the countries’ bilateral cooperation and US military support to the Saudi regime. This so-called ‘petrodollar agreement’ virtually pegged the value of the US dollar to global oil demand and ensured its continued dominance as the world’s main reserve currency.
Mechanisms of the Petrodollar System
The petrodollar system refers to the practice of trading oil in US dollars, as well as the broader arrangements that support it. Let’s see how it is manifested.
Oil Purchases
Global oil sales are predominantly in US dollars, regardless of the buyer or seller’s country. This practice means that countries buying oil must hold dollar reserves, which creates a constant global demand for dollars. This supports the currency’s value and gives the US significant influence over global financial markets. As a benefit, uniformity reduces currency risk and transaction costs.
Oil Sales
The settlement of oil transactions involves the transfer of dollars through international banking systems, although US banks are the most predominant. The US can exert economic pressure by restricting access to the dollar financial system, effectively imposing sanctions on countries.
Recycling of Petrodollars
Petrodollar “recycling” refers to the way oil-exporting countries utilise their oil revenue. These countries spend part of their oil revenues on foreign goods and services and save another portion as foreign assets. These assets can include deposits in foreign banks, bonds, and private equity investments. Ultimately, the foreign exchange earned by oil exporters from increased oil exports flows back into the global economy, hence the term “recycled.”
Economic and Political Implications
The petrodollar system has profound implications for the global economy and geopolitics.
Global Trade and Geopolitics
The petrodollar system standardises oil pricing, simplifies transactions, and reduces exchange rate risks for oil-importing countries, thereby facilitating smoother international trade flows. The petrodollar system cemented the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, along with other oil-producing nations, forming a strategic alliance that would influence global politics for decades.
Oil-Exporting Countries
Oil-exporting countries reinvest revenues into exploration, drilling, and infrastructure projects, boosting oil production and driving technological advancements. Additionally, petrodollars allow oil-exporting nations to invest in the domestic economy and stimulate domestic growth.
US Economic Influence
The petrodollar system increased global demand for the dollar, solidifying its status as the world’s primary reserve currency. Oil-exporting countries holding large reserves of US dollars invest them in US government securities, which support the US economy. The demand for US dollars maintains a favourable trade balance for the United States. Oil transactions increasing the global circulation of dollars support US exports.
High dollar demand ensures ample liquidity in the forex market, making it the most widely traded currency. If you are interested in trading currencies such as the US dollar, explore popular USD pairs on the TickTrader platform.
Criticisms and Challenges
While the petrodollar provides economic and geopolitical advantages, it also exposes countries to a number of risks and challenges.
Economic Disparities
Critics argue that the petrodollar exacerbates global economic inequality. By concentrating economic power and benefits in the hands of a limited group of oil-exporting countries, it perpetuates inequality and prevents more equitable economic development. This concentration of wealth and influence often puts poorer countries at a disadvantage, as they find it difficult to compete on a world stage dominated by petrodollar transactions.
Dependency and Vulnerability
The petrodollar system also creates dependencies:
1. Oil-importing countries must maintain dollar reserves, potentially exposing their economies to changes in the USD rate.
2. Oil-exporting countries invest heavily in the US economy and financial instruments, making them vulnerable to economic fluctuations and potential restrictions by the US, such as sanctions.
3. The US economy profits from the capital inflows, as they help finance the federal budget and support economic growth. Reduced inflows may negatively impact the US economy.
4. Changes in geopolitical alliances, regional conflicts, and economic policies can impact the stability and future of the petrodollar system. The collapse of the petrodollar could have serious consequences for the US and global economy.
Future of the Petrodollar
The future of this system is uncertain, especially with the changing geopolitical landscape. Saudi Arabia has opted to terminate the 50-year petrodollar agreement with the US, and it expired on June 9, 2024, which was referred to as the end of the petrodollar in the news.
This agreement has been the cornerstone of the petrodollar system, and its expiration marks a significant shift. It means that oil will be traded in multiple currencies, including the Chinese yuan, euro, yen, and potentially digital currencies like Bitcoin. These efforts reflect a growing desire to reduce dependency on the dollar and diversify economic risks.
These changes may contribute to a more balanced global economic environment by weakening the influence of the dollar, creating a more multipolar currency system, and providing countries with greater financial autonomy.
Another threat to the oil-US dollar system is that countries seek sustainable energy alternatives and new economic alliances emerge. In particular, the shift to renewable energy could reduce the world’s dependence on oil, thereby decreasing the centrality of the traditional energy system and the US dollar, causing a reassessment of the existing order.
Final Thoughts
The petrodollar, born out of historical necessity and strategic agreements, may no longer be a cornerstone of economics and geopolitics. As global energy and financial systems evolve, the role of the petrodollar has become the subject of critical analysis and debate, and the recent termination of the US–Saudi agreement is a prime example of the changing economic and geopolitical landscape.
Changes may lead to revaluation of various currencies and market volatility. Those who are interested in catching market volatility and trading on news events, can open an FXOpen account and start trading various USD pairs.
FAQ
What Is the Petrodollar?
The petrodollar is the name of the system that reflects US dollars earned by a country through the sale of its petroleum to other countries. This term highlights the relationship between global oil sales and the US dollar.
When Was the Petrodollar Created?
The petrodollar concept was created in the mid-1970s. The turning point came in 1974 when the United States and Saudi Arabia reached an agreement that oil prices would be set exclusively in US dollars. This agreement followed the collapse of the Bretton Woods System and the 1973 oil crisis.
Why Is Oil Only Traded in Dollars?
Currently, oil is not only traded in dollars. Some oil-exporting countries use their national currencies, and the euro and Chinese yuan may be widely used for oil trading in the near future. Oil was traded in dollars mainly because of the 1974 US-Saudi agreement. It created a standard currency for oil transactions and reduced exchange rate risks. But since the agreement was terminated in June 2024, other currencies may become more common in oil transactions.
Is the US Dollar Backed by Oil?
No, the US dollar is not backed by oil. Since the end of the Bretton Woods System in 1971, no physical commodity has backed the dollar. However, the petrodollar system creates a close link between the dollar and the global oil trade, maintaining the value of the dollar through constant demand for it in international markets.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Oil spikes on escalation fearsCrude oil continues to push up off the lows hit on Tuesday when front-month WTI broke below $67 per barrel for the first time since the beginning of October. Since then, oil has managed to build some upside momentum, although it’s far too early to tell if there’s a definitive change in direction. Nevertheless, things are looking better for the bulls, in some respects. The daily MACD has begun to turn higher, although it still remains in negative territory. Yesterday evening, prices suddenly surged higher in a move which took front-month WTI from $69 to $70.50 in less than an hour. The jump came after Israeli intelligence reported that Iran was planning to attack Isreal from its bases within Iraq. This should keep markets off balance as the weekend approaches. Traders will be on alert over the weekend. And beyond, in the absence of an attack. But it also means that yesterday’s rally is likely to unwind completely should any attack prove ineffectual. Despite this, it is potentially another step up in the escalation of hostilities which is starting to normalise direct military contact between Israel and Iran, rather than with Iran’s proxies.
US Oil might need to partially close this MEGA GAPHi Everyone!
I think that this mega gap short needs to be at least partially filled before going shorter. We are currently in nice profit and I have set a breakeven.
#WTI Crude Oil 4-HWTI Crude Oil 4-Hour Analysis
WTI Crude Oil is trading within a falling channel on the 4-hour chart, currently finding support at the channel's lower boundary. This support level could provide a potential buy opportunity, especially if bullish momentum builds. Additionally, a breakout above the channel's upper resistance line would signal further upside, opening the door for more buy entries.
Technical Outlook:
- Pattern: Falling Channel
- Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity)
- Support Level: Channel lower boundary
- Further Opportunity: Buy more if resistance breakout occurs
Traders may look to enter buy positions at the channel support and consider adding to positions if a breakout above the upper resistance confirms additional bullish momentum. Indicators like RSI for oversold conditions or MACD for bullish crossovers can provide extra confirmation before entering.
XTIUSD / CRUDE OIL @ 70.33: Bigger Picture 01-Nov-2024XTIUSD / CRUDE OIL @ 70.33
Resistances: 77.91/83.91/94.21/126.21
Support: 63.89
As long as 77.89 holds resistances, we can see 68.55/63.89/55/44.50.
Reversal from any of these levels, we will see big up move and first target would be 126.
Further targest 155/210+
Oil ShortLooking to short Oil. After the large gap from weekend news regarding the strikes on Iran being more about retaliation than targeting the manufacturing supplies there is some downside potential for Oil. Currently trading below the gap, I am looking to trade Oil lower before buying it back up. Buy's right now do not make sense for the strategy.
Confluences for the short:
-38% fibo
-Key Level
-Trendline break and retest
Entry is now
Stop loss is set around 69.64, any higher and the idea is inactive as Oil should begin to push higher after breaking the nearest resistance.
Targeting the next support and resistance at the lows created in September.
*Remember this is not financial advice I post on here more to give an idea of trading and how I look at the market.
Never the less, trade safe and catch you later traders ▲
Oil is looking to Trend lower to $40 If OIl breaks doesn't hold from the descending triangle, we may be looking at OIl going to previous resistance, which should now be support at $40
WTI CRUDE OIL Strong rebound on the Support. Buy.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL almost hit the Support A level and rebounded today.
This is the exact range where the price made a bullish reversal on October 1st and rose to a new Higher High.
Buy and target 78.00 (just under Resistance A).
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Crude Oil Price Review: Bullish Correction AheadThe recent bearish gap in crude oil prices could be setting up for a bullish correction, as technical indicators highlight key target areas for a rebound, signaling a potential upward trend.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report supports this outlook if large institutional players are increasing long positions, adding to the bullish momentum.
Historical US election trends also play a role, as policy shifts related to energy can drive expectations of higher demand, which often leads to upward price adjustments.
Meanwhile, upcoming economic data, including the US PCE index, jobs report, and manufacturing PMI, will influence this trajectory, with higher-than-expected inflation possibly leading to rate hikes, which could temper growth and suppress oil demand.
However, should these indicators point to economic resilience, it would bolster the case for a rally, feeding into a narrative where crude oil prices might see a short-term climb in anticipation of both policy impacts and resilient demand.
USOil WTI Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👀👉 US Oil has encountered recent selling pressure, which may present an opportunity for short-term traders. In this video, we’ll analyze the price action, evaluate the current trend and market structure, and explore potential sell setups if the price action unfolds as outlined. Risk Disclaimer: Forex trading involves significant risks, and market conditions can change unexpectedly. This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. 📉✅
WTI CRUDE OIL: 1H Death Cross suggests another Low is coming.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.281, MACD = -0.560, ADX = 26.062) with the bearish bias evident as in the last 3 weeks the price is trading inside a Channel Down. The formation of a 1H Death Cross earlier today, draws comparisons with the October 15th one. Both price actions found a temporary support on the 1.382 Fibonacci level at the time of the Death Cross but the 1H RSI was rebounding on a bullish divergence. We expect the price to extend replicating that bearish wave and approach the 1.618 Fib eventually (TP = 66.00).
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